'24-25 commentary

[Crow]

So far, teams range from having 0 to 6 guys over $5 million salary beyond their top 6 on minutes guys.

Celtics are in group with zero. Magic "lead" with 6 bench guys over $5 mil. Thunder in a group at 5 (with Hornets, Bulls, Rockets and Warriors) and only modestly short of having 6.

It is timeline influenced and minimum team salary influenced but it arguably should also be about maximizing player quality in top 6 for bulk of minutes on court in playoffs.

Some are more disciplined / strict about this strategy than others, on purpose and by necessity. As cores age into 2nd and 3rd contracts it probably becomes more necessary. But it is a notable difference in current state of team design.

[Crow]

VORP and salary distributions from last season as a baseline for assessing current value ratios and looking forward.

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1812183773255188917

[Crow]

Kawhi at trade deadline or next summer? Have to see what he and team does, but trade probably should be considered.

Warriors, Lakers, Hawks, Nets are a few possibilities. Who else? Rockets? Griz?

[Crow]

2ways who can and will play in rotation right now would be valuable. Will look to identify later.

[Crow]

Wembanyama only has positive team results with Jones and Vassell and San Antonio brings in more guards to compete for time now and mostly later in Paul and Castle, Minix, Bouyea and eventually Nunez and presumably H Ingram and retains Wesley and Branham.

The only change at PF / C is to bring in 32 year old Harrison Barnes and apparently let go of Barlow and Osman.

Is this future design (good or not) or continued tank?

There are at least 8 guys I would be planning to move on from. Timing depends on timeline.

Wembenyama - Collins was twice as bad as team average at -12pts / 100p. That should be eliminated from use but probably won't be. Z Collins has got to go eventually.

There were some brighter spots in sublineup data after all-star game break including Sochan - Wembenyama which went from moderate negative before to moderate positive.

[Crow]

I'd guess that there will be a good number of "sellers" in east (and a few in west) and at least some buyers in west at trade deadline.

LaVine, Ball, Vukevic, T Young, Capela, Hunter, Bogdanovic, the other Bogdanovic, C Johnson, DFS...

A team set up for a passing center (system, shooters / cutters)and wiĺling to go strongly that direction should try for Vukevic.

Maybe some of the others are worth adding to contender depth, if "cheap". Maybe.

Sellers thinking they can demand a high price will generally be proven wrong. Jazz and Blazers have trade assets that are more likely to win stronger returns. Markannen, R Williams, maybe Ayton, Grant...

[Crow]

You would never hear it in mainstream "reporting" or commentary but Wembenyama was below league average last season on 3pt fg%, efg%, ts%, mid and long 2s and just barely above average from 3-10 feet. There were some above average monthly splits but he finished below average on 3pt fg%, efg% and ts% in April.

What happens from here?

[Crow]

Pelicans and playing fast:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1816539537193263385

[Crow]

I'd be very open to trading anyone or everyone on Lakers not named LeBron or A.D.

Yeah, I've said that before.

[Mike G]

... Wembenyama was below league average last season on 3pt fg%, efg%, ts%...

Rookies are almost always below average on FG%.
I looked up the previous 20 ROY, and the averages in these shooting stats. Showing his rank among the last 21.

Code: Select all

ROY    3fg%   2fg%   eFG%    FT%    TS%
Wemby  .325   .534   .519   .796   .565
20Avg  .317*  .486   .488   .762   .535
rank     9      4      4      8      3 

* - excluding Ben Simmons and Emeka Okafor, who didn't shoot 3's.
Kyrie Irving shot .001 higher TS% as a rookie, and Karl-A Towns was at .590

Of course shooting% are higher of late; relative to league avg TS%, Wemby was .015 below that .580. And 12 of 20 did better (avg was -.011). Luka was the same level relative to league in 2019. Durant'08 and LeBron'04 were worse.

Wemby's monthly ORtg-DRtg etc:

Code: Select all

mo.   G    MPG   Usg%   TS%   ORt  DRt   O-D
Oct   4   27.2   30.3  .553    88  108   -20
Nov  14   30.8   30.3  .523    99  113   -14
Dec  10   28.6   29.1  .539   103  105   - 2
Jan  14   26.7   37.1  .605   110  107   + 3
Feb  12   28.9   31.4  .590   108  103   + 5
Mar  12   31.6   33.3  .579   106  102   + 4
Apr   5   35.7   33.2  .532   105  100   + 5

More defense at the end.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... plits/2024

Monthly 3fg% ranged from .270 (Oct/Nov) to .413 (Feb). Note that his eFG% for the year was .015 worse than his 2fg%. This is the 2nd biggest deficit from shooting 3's among the 21 (Scottie Barnes was -.019 in 2022).

[Crow]

Performance relative to other rookies does add perspective.

Month to month improvement on ts% and offensive rating faded toward end. Only 1 month even got close to league average offensive rating. But net rating by this approach did steadily improve to moderately positive.

[Crow]

Looking at 14 series in west playoffs over last 2 seasons by 4 factors, the series winner won

Efg% matchup 13 of 14 times
TO% 9
Oreb 10
FT/FGA just 7 times.

Nobody won losing more than 2 factors but '23 Warriors lost 2 and were virtually tied on a 3rd.

4 won all 4 factors, 4 won 3, 6 won 2. The average was about 2.9.

I would prefer not to be dependent on winning at the FT line.

Obviously shooting differential is most important. Different ways to produce it. Only team to win without it was '24 Nuggets.

[Crow]

The Thunder won 2 factors in both series this spring. They won both turnover nets, lost both offensive boards nets and split on the other two. Overall that is below average and not that inspiring. But maybe the shooting or shot defense or the rebounding improves. D Jones and Ajay Mitchell might eventually help at FT line but probably not going to see a lot of playoff minutes soon.

[Crow]

Who might pursue Jimmy Butler, by whatever means and timing?

I'd guess Mavs, Nuggets, Pelicans, maybe Lakers, Warriors and Rockets.

[Crow]

Clippers and Rockets in fight with others for 10th seed in west, higher or less?