LIneup trends around the league

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Thunder 3 most used only provided 59% of margin. Dink game was helpful but not enough. 3 most used lineups only got 38% of total time. Not enough. Different but not good enough. 2nd round loss to a lower seed in 6 games.

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In playoffs:

Pacers, only 3 of 10 most used lineups positive. 101 used.

Celtics, 6 positive. 87 used.
Mavs, 8 of 10 positive. 154 used.
Timberwolves, 6 positive, 78 used.

Thunder 7 of 10 positive. 79 used.

Pacers way behind on 10 most used positives.

All imo used way too many dink lineups, especially Mavs.

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Coaches, teams can "care about" 1, 3, 5, 10 or 20 lineups. Testing "adequately" is another thing; but they should decide if they care first, then try to test or plan to test. It can't be more than 20. It would be difficult to care about and test more than 10. And they don't. Elite teams test an average of just 3.6 lineups over 100 minutes over a regular season.

At game level they can / will use about 10-30 lineups. They could be the same or quite different and coaches choose the latter, when imo they should mostly choose the former. The average team uses just 16 lineups for 10+ games. Less than 3 for 20+ games. Do the Coach and team know or care? I don't know if they know, but I conclude that they don't really care enough to change the pattern. 0.4 lineups per team get 40+ games. Just 1 got 60+. (Thunder starters.)

Lineup analysis & management matters a lot whether the effort and care is there or not.

Coaches substitute players. It changes lineups. Sometimes for micro-management of matchups, sometimes for rote player minutes management. Have a 10 lineup game plan? That actually matters or lose yourself and any plan 6-10 minutes in? I don't know. I generally doubt it based on the data. Should they? I'd say so. Doesn't absolutely have to be same lineup plan every game but it should be different for good reason, a better reason than the general reason of trying to get half-decent testing done for evaluation in advance of playoffs.

About 70% of lineups used 20+ games are positive, 40% very positive. Worth finding and using more. Way more.

If a team uses a lineup less or way less than 10 times in a season, they aren't serious about it. Even 20 times is pretty light.

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TWolves lineup data, past and present:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1849127866107338901

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1849135003181215789

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Griz, 44 lineups in 2 games. Starters suck... in 12 minutes of use. Next 6 all great... in 3-6 minute samples. Every starters pair was horrible overall.

Major issues with this.

Team average is about 26.
Issues with that too; but 70% above whack is really whack.


Average of 12.5 players have played so far per team.

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Bucks, 1 lineup meaningfully above neutral in the 4 used over 5 minutes total. According to BRef. NBA.com tells a very different story about performance. Sigh...

They do agree that Lillard- Gianis A. has been mildly negative so far this season, down from +10 last season.

Giannis - no Lillard has been awful, while Dame only has been good. In small samples.

Both are moderately bad with Prince. Lillard alright with Trent but not so for Giannis.

Portis and Connaughton main pairs generally suck. Lopez with best bigger minute pairs.

Follow these numbers... or not.

Only 25 lineups used is comparatively low. Some credit for that.

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Chris Paul - Wembanyama, almost -20pts / 100p so far.
I didn't think that is what Wemby was really looking for. Willing to try. Maybe needs. But not a fit for preference of up top dribbling, maybe driving, or more likely this season step back shooting.

The two have worst +/- on team tonight.

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Bucks lineup data before tonight:

4 of 5 most used negative.

Lillard - Giannis A., -9pts / 100p

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Only 8 of 25 most used lineups in league are positive. Early but that might be worst result I've ever seen for the top choices of Coaches.

6 games in on average and coaches have used 66 lineups on average. 11 new per game. Way too many. 38.5% positive is about average.

Top choices moderately less positive than the average choice.

Worst performing top lineup? Suns starters at almost -25 / 100p. Followed by 5 starting units in east and 2 in west, all -13 or worse.

Who changes, who doesn't? What changes, what doesn't?

Who had a good case for what they tried and who didn't? That would take a closer look.

Best performers for Kings, Nuggets, Celtics, Lakers and Knicks.


39 pairs over 120 minutes and +10 or better. Celtics with top 2 and 5 overall. Nuggets with 9. Kings and Knicks 6 each. Thunder 4. Cavs 3. Suns 1. Mavs, Warriors, TWolves none.


George - Kessler -29 worst among qualifers in a very committed 149 minutes.

Cunningham-Duren 4th worst. Edwards - McDaniels 6th worst. McDaniels Gobert 8th worst. McDaniels Randle 13th worst. Herro Adebayo 7th worst.

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Draft Lakers rotation:

Russell Reeves Hachimura James Davis 16

Russell Reeves Reddish Hachimura Koloko 6

Russell Reeves Reddish Hachimura Hayes 6

Russell Reddish Hachimura James Hayes 6

James Reddish Knecht Davis Koloko 8

James Reeves Knecht Davis Hayes 6


Russell 34
Reeves 34
Reddish 26
Knecht 14
Hachimura 34
James 36
Davis 30
Hayes 18
Koloko 14


They really need other options, even if at minimum or 2 way after someone is waived.

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Grizzlies have used 141 lineups in 10 games. So, 14 brand new lineups per game on average. No lineup used in more than half the games and only 6 in more than 3.

Most bigger minute lineups and sub-lineups are working, including top 7-8 lineups, mostly strongly. None over 3.5 minutes per game and only 1 over 2 minutes per game.

Decent results but more concentration would still be my recommendation. No trio is being used above about 8 minutes per game, so can't yet make a firm call on quality.

10 strong pairs involving 8 players. Bane in none of them. Smart, Kennard, Konchar, Huff in none. Edey just one.

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Yabusele - Embid awful in first 24 minutes. But it is being tried.

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On average Sims and McBride minutes have best results. Bridges even on but awful on / off.

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Griz barely have 1 lineup used more than 2 minutes for season. Already at 272 lineups used. An average of 15 brand new lineups EVERY game.

80% of 20 most used pairs are positive. Players appearing in 2 are Pippen, Bane and Aldama.

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Rockets use starting lineups 13+ minutes per game then only 1 mildly above 2 minutes per game. 137 total lineups.

Top 18 pairs are all positive then stray negative begin to appear.