2024-25 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Opening the thread for those interested.

[eminence]

Whole numbers, no ties in conference. Last seasons wins + personal read on team direction (-2 to +2 variable range).

May update closer to the regular season (obviously if there are any major injuries or the such), can I just edit this post for that?

East
Celtics 62
Knicks 58
Cavs 49
Bucks 48
Heat 47
Pacers 44
Sixers 43
Magic 42
Hawks 34
Hornets 33
Raptors 32
Pistons 28
Bulls 27
Nets 23
Wizards 19

West
Thunder 58
Wolves 57
Nuggets 53
Pelicans 49
Grizzlies 48
Warriors 47
Suns 46
Kings 44
Mavericks 43
Lakers 42
Spurs 38
Rockets 33
Clippers 32
Jazz 28
Blazers 23

[Crow]

Sure.

[dtkavana]

I'm back!

As usual, I have my projections posted on the site:

https://craftednba.com/projections

They are behind a paywall for now, so I will share here as well:

Team Record losses
Boston Celtics 59 23
Oklahoma City Thunder 54 28
Cleveland Cavaliers 52 30
Denver Nuggets 51 31
Minnesota Timberwolves 50 32
New York Knicks 50 32
Milwaukee Bucks 50 32
Phoenix Suns 49 34
Philadelphia 76ers 48 34
Dallas Mavericks 47 36
Sacramento Kings 47 35
Orlando Magic 46 34
Indiana Pacers 46 36
Golden State Warriors 45 37
Los Angeles Lakers 44 39
Memphis Grizzlies 43 41
Miami Heat 43 39
New Orleans Pelicans 42 40
Los Angeles Clippers 41 40
Atlanta Hawks 41 40
Houston Rockets 38 44
San Antonio Spurs 31 53
Toronto Raptors 30 52
Chicago Bulls 30 52
Utah Jazz 29 52
Charlotte Hornets 28 54
Detroit Pistons 28 54
Brooklyn Nets 26 54
Portland Trail Blazers 22 60
Washington Wizards 21 60

I launched my subscription platform last week, and the reception has been really great so far.

[Crow]

dtkavana, there are 11 teams that don't add to 82 games
as shown and the grand total is not 1230.

[dtkavana]

Thanks for the heads up Crow. I had copied from the wrong column. Here ya go!

Team Record losses
Boston Celtics 59 23
Oklahoma City Thunder 50 32
Cleveland Cavaliers 30 52
Denver Nuggets 49 33
Minnesota Timberwolves 48 34
New York Knicks 45 37
Milwaukee Bucks 43 39
Phoenix Suns 41 41
Philadelphia 76ers 43 39
Dallas Mavericks 50 32
Sacramento Kings 51 31
Orlando Magic 46 36
Indiana Pacers 47 35
Golden State Warriors 52 30
Los Angeles Lakers 50 32
Memphis Grizzlies 29 53
Miami Heat 42 40
New Orleans Pelicans 54 28
Los Angeles Clippers 41 41
Atlanta Hawks 31 51
Houston Rockets 44 38
San Antonio Spurs 30 52
Toronto Raptors 26 56
Chicago Bulls 28 54
Utah Jazz 28 54
Charlotte Hornets 21 61
Detroit Pistons 22 60
Brooklyn Nets 47 35
Portland Trail Blazers 46 36
Washington Wizards 38 44

[v-zero]

Cleveland Cavaliers 30 52

Memphis Grizzlies 29 53

I don't think you can have meant these this way round.

[eminence]

Debating what to do with Kawhi injury updates, already had him down for missing a solid chunk, but confirming it does hurt more.

Though I do feel Lue is one of the best at getting something from nothing, so I don't expect a complete collapse either.

[Mike G]

We can just guess Wins; losses naturally follow.
I have 4 submissions:

Code: Select all

west  eWin   perW    WS    bpmW      east  eWin   perW    WS    bpmW
Dal   51.3   47.0   48.4   48.0      Atl   39.6   43.5   43.6   41.1
Den   55.6   48.2   51.4   50.3      Bos   55.1   48.2   60.3   55.5
GSW   41.7   41.0   46.0   46.3      Brk   32.0   36.2   33.0   31.9
Hou   47.6   42.5   44.7   45.3      Cha   22.9   32.1   22.0   24.3
LAC   29.1   36.3   42.9   39.5      Chi   30.8   35.1   30.8   33.5
LAL   38.5   40.1   38.1   39.3      Cle   42.5   40.6   45.2   44.0
Mem   39.9   38.7   30.9   38.9      Det   34.5   37.7   30.7   33.4
Min   51.9   43.2   51.8   50.1      Ind   43.4   46.1   44.0   43.6
NOP   45.5   43.9   45.5   45.9      Mia   47.5   42.4   45.4   44.4
OKC   51.6   48.1   58.4   54.8      Mil   41.2   41.7   42.1   39.6
Phx   45.6   45.0   48.3   47.6      NYK   40.8   39.7   44.0   42.7
Por   30.1   33.2   23.1   27.7      Orl   40.6   38.1   46.0   42.3
Sac   48.9   46.0   47.9   49.1      Phl   49.3   44.6   45.0   43.0
SAS   33.9   37.7   29.8   34.6      Tor   28.5   36.0   30.8   32.0
Uta   35.2   39.3   32.3   31.4      Was   35.0   37.7   27.6   30.0

Assumed same player-minutes across each of these stats.
Nobody gets more than 2500 min. Players who missed a lot of games are assumed to play more this year.

[DQuinn1575]

Going for most improved, after a poor rookie season ;


UPDATED 10/21

ATL 39
BOS 61
BRK 29
CHI 30
CHO 28
CLE 48
DAL 56
DEN 49
DET 26
GSW 49
HOU 36
IND 42
LAC 45
LAL 43
MEM 45
MIA 42
MIL 49
MIN 55
NOP 45
NYK 43
OKC 61
ORL 43
PHI 47
PHO 43
POR 26
SAC 47
SAS 31
TOR 29
UTA 29
WAS 14

[TeemoTeejay]

feel this could be fun to try out, does anyone know where to find Pelton projected minutes, or is that something people do on their own?

Edit: Used rotowire with some adjustements for when it overdid some rookies, only used the metric I made pretty much aside from changing the minutes a tad with some high rookie minutes that were a bit weird. Didn't do anything like aging curves or anything like that either so I doubt this will do well compared to the other metric projections

Not necessarily how I would rank it, but wanna see how the metric ends up doing. I think the Lakers will do better than this although it sounds like mine isnt too low on them compared to the other projections here
Team W L
OKC 58 24
BOS 56 26
DAL 51 31
PHX 50 32
PHI 50 32
NYK 49 33
GSW 48 34
MIN 47 35
SAC 46 36
CLE 47 35
DEN 45 38
LAL 44 38
NOP 43 39
HOU 43 39
IND 43 39
MIL 44 38
ORL 42 40
MIA 41 41
MEM 40 42
LAC 36 46
ATL 36 46
DET 31 51
SAS 33 49
CHI 30 52
TOR 28 54
UTA 26 56
CHA 25 57
BKN 23 59
POR 23 59
WAS 14 68

[wfordh]

KP's minutes are here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... c/htmlview

[mtamada]

Team Record losses

[...]

Portland Trail Blazers 46 36

The other posts here have the Blazers at these number of wins: 22, 23, 23, 28 and Mike G's estimates are 23, 28, 30, and 33.

I think the estimates of 22 or 23 are a little too pessimistic; mid-to-high 20s is my guess and a glance at several online predictions showed a range from 21 to 33 wins.

I'm curious about what sort of model or thinking would lead one to predict 46 wins for the Trailblazers this season? The biggest unexpected loss they had last year was losing Robert Williams for the entire season. But getting a backup center/sometime starter back is not going to add a lot of victories (and Williams is injured again, return date is presumably soon but unkown).

[nbacouchside]

Probably not going to get projections done this year, unfortunately. Best of luck to everyone.

[mediocre]

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62
Boston Celtics: 60.8
Philadelphia 76ers: 55.1
Minnesota Timberwolves: 52
Denver Nuggets: 51.3
Cleveland Cavaliers: 50.1
Phoenix Suns: 49.9
New Orleans Pelicans: 49.4
Golden State Warriors: 48.4
New York Knicks: 48.4
Orlando Magic: 47.5
Indiana Pacers: 47
Dallas Mavericks: 46.5
Houston Rockets: 46.1
Milwaukee Bucks: 43.7
Memphis Grizzlies: 42.5
Miami Heat: 42.3
Sacramento Kings: 42
Los Angeles Lakers: 39.4
Atlanta Hawks: 37.7
Los Angeles Clippers: 35.4
Utah Jazz: 31.1
San Antonio Spurs: 30.6
Toronto Raptors: 29.4
Chicago Bulls: 25.1
Brooklyn Nets: 25.8
Detroit Pistons: 25.6
Portland Trail Blazers: 23.9
Charlotte Hornets: 23.5
Washington Wizards: 17.5