'24-25 commentary

[Crow]

Eastern conference playoff teams all appear to be known already but I guess there could possibly be a surprise, for injury or otherwise.

Seeds of course not set. Seeding will probably be very important to most.

West is at least an 11 team race. Possibly more.

[Crow]

League has never had more than 2 teams get 40+% of points from 3pt shots. Only 5 or 6 instances. Usually 1 per year since Rockets first did it 2018-19. Celtics do it back to back in last 2 seasons. Assume they do it again. Does anyone join them? Probably not unless made an explicit goal.

[Crow]

Sixers and Suns had absurdly bad defensive rebounding rates in playoffs, well below 70%. Weak in regular season. Did they fix this? There were roster adds related to this, but it will depend on playing time. Probably not big change, maybe some. Enough? Time will tell eventually.

[Crow]

Bucks analytics staff greatly expanded or at least new revealed.

Timberwolves currently with none so labeled at nbastuffer.com.

Pelicans with 1.

Thunder with 12, lead by far.

Wizards significantly trimmed to 5.

[Crow]

9 of 12 competitive western teams have above average levels of player experience by minutes. The 3 that don't are Thunder, Pelicans and Griz.

[Crow]

Game 1 league averages compared to last season and beyond:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1849504563168149618

A starting point for things to watch.

[rjb2]

Looks like EPM is now predictive, using projected box score inputs in the SPM instead of only using within-season stats. Results look pretty good to the eye, but Luka Garza's offensive projection is pretty lofty.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

[Crow]

Thanks for the notice.

[Crow]

1 game in for almost everybody, Spurs, Heat, Blazers, Raptors and Wizards are bottom 10 on both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Cavs, Warriors, Magic and Mavs top 10 on both.

[Crow]

Hawks with 5× the ft rate of Thunder currently.

Celtics with nearly double 3pta rate of Jazz.

Nuggets almost 5× at the rim frequency of Kings.

Warriors with more than double the assists of Sixers.

Pelicans with 750% the steals of Knicks.

Thunder with 13x the blocks of the Clippers.

Griz with almost 3x the fouls against as Knicks and Nuggets.

Expect regression but there are differences.

Leaguewide mid-range frequency down from 37% to 33%.

What lasts as notably different and what doesn't?

[Crow]

Average minutes weighted age has risen 0.6 in 2 years to tie the recent high from 9 years ago.

Thunder 3rd youngest, Magic 5th. Celtics 5th oldest. TWolves 7th.

Turnover rate probably settles in and down but fwiw it is currently higher than last 25 years at season level.

[Crow]

Game 1 Kings, 56% of shots in the mid-range. Probably the highest rate. Hitting from 3-10 and 16-23 feet very well but 10% from 10-16 feet.

[Crow]

Game 1 Clippers, #1 on opponent turnovers and defensive rebounding.

[Crow]

Hield almost +30 BPM, leads league among those with non-trivial minutes. L. Waters +26 in fairly trivial minutes.

Tatum, qualified leader at +23.

K Thompson +17 in first outing.

Eason+13, Holmgren +12.

Haliburton -12.5. Same for Jaden McDaniels.

Jalen Williams -13.3.

About 20 rookies below -12 but I'll give them a little more run before naming more.

Mogbo put up some stats in game 2 to rise to +6.

[Crow]

Giddey, 2 games in, runaway worst team +/- on court and on / off.