Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Over 17 seasons Presti's teams have won a bit less than 55% of regular season games, a bit less than 51% of playoff games and 11 of 22 series. 4 conference finals appearances but not for 8 years.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
One game Thunder ranks:
26th on offense
1st on defense
23rd on 3pt rate
30th on FT rate
25th on efg%
28th on ts%
19th on OR%
25th on DR%
3rd lowest foul rate
1st on efg% allowed.
Defense and / or bad Nuggets offense was basically everything for this win.
Nuggets defense was probably good too.
26th on offense
1st on defense
23rd on 3pt rate
30th on FT rate
25th on efg%
28th on ts%
19th on OR%
25th on DR%
3rd lowest foul rate
1st on efg% allowed.
Defense and / or bad Nuggets offense was basically everything for this win.
Nuggets defense was probably good too.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Starters, -29pts / 100p in 15 minutes. 3 of 4 lineups over 2 minutes negative with the other two even worse.
All bench... and Nuggets bench.
99 trios in 1 game. 10 most used all negative but 1 neutral. 5 most used quads (of 75) negative, 4 badly. Only 1 of 10 most used pairs positive (SGA-Holmgren).
Top of the rotation was blasted at every level.
All bench... and Nuggets bench.
99 trios in 1 game. 10 most used all negative but 1 neutral. 5 most used quads (of 75) negative, 4 badly. Only 1 of 10 most used pairs positive (SGA-Holmgren).
Top of the rotation was blasted at every level.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Game 1 was one of the least Moreyball in league.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Jalen Williams and Dort at worse than -50 on / off in game 1.
Williams with 3 of the 4 worst pairs in 20 most used. Their pairing was the worst. It was good last season but least good of 12 most used.
SGA with one of Jalen Williams or Dort performing better than with both in game 1 and last season on average. With both, often means Williams at PF. With just one isn't and probably is less.
SGA with Wiggins last season was 6 pts better than without. Not in game 1. But the minutes together were up 80%. Intentional or not? Time will tell.
SGA - Wiggins way better without Holmgren in both time periods.
Williams with 3 of the 4 worst pairs in 20 most used. Their pairing was the worst. It was good last season but least good of 12 most used.
SGA with one of Jalen Williams or Dort performing better than with both in game 1 and last season on average. With both, often means Williams at PF. With just one isn't and probably is less.
SGA with Wiggins last season was 6 pts better than without. Not in game 1. But the minutes together were up 80%. Intentional or not? Time will tell.
SGA - Wiggins way better without Holmgren in both time periods.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Another game, another win.
But now it is 4 of 4 most used lineups negative. Total lineups up to about 40, with only 4 over 4 minutes. The bottom 36 with slightly more minutes than the big 4. First 100 lineups probably reached within another 5 games.
But now it is 4 of 4 most used lineups negative. Total lineups up to about 40, with only 4 over 4 minutes. The bottom 36 with slightly more minutes than the big 4. First 100 lineups probably reached within another 5 games.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder, 2nd fastest average pace. Celtics 2nd slowest. Thunder, 2nd lowest team ts%. Celtics, 3rd best.
Great defense alone can give a strong SRS or net rating but is unlikely to win 4 playoff series without a vastly better offense. Currently 28th on offensive efficiency.
If you believe that defensive efficiency is more about opponent offensive performance than defense, that will likely move back some toward mean.
Warriors with 2nd best offense and defense so far. More than double Thunder on net rating.
Thunder 4th on net rating is very good but imo staying there is minimum goal. Slippage would be an issue.
At factor level it is 4 elite, 1 slightly below average, 3 in bottom 20%. 2 sharp declines on offense, 2 improvements on D.
This could be small sample story or the main story of season. Shooting and getting to FT line way down but defensive rebounding up and fouls given way down.
SGA, Holmgren and Wiggins off to strong starts by BPM over +3, JDub, Wallace, Joe, Dort and Caruso all below -3. Caruso and Wallace really bad shooting, JDub, Joe and Dort just bad.
The 3 rookies all below -9.
Dieng up at the moment to meh -1 BPM. Still can't shoot average but blocking shots at the moment in a new role.
Shai more than doubles 3pt attempts and 3pt efg% falls below 27%. FT rate falls about 60%. Right now that is double disaster. TS% breaks new career low. Assist rate at 5 year low.
SGA OR%, steal and block rates at career highs.
Radically different mix of stats. What lasts, what reverts?
Great defense alone can give a strong SRS or net rating but is unlikely to win 4 playoff series without a vastly better offense. Currently 28th on offensive efficiency.
If you believe that defensive efficiency is more about opponent offensive performance than defense, that will likely move back some toward mean.
Warriors with 2nd best offense and defense so far. More than double Thunder on net rating.
Thunder 4th on net rating is very good but imo staying there is minimum goal. Slippage would be an issue.
At factor level it is 4 elite, 1 slightly below average, 3 in bottom 20%. 2 sharp declines on offense, 2 improvements on D.
This could be small sample story or the main story of season. Shooting and getting to FT line way down but defensive rebounding up and fouls given way down.
SGA, Holmgren and Wiggins off to strong starts by BPM over +3, JDub, Wallace, Joe, Dort and Caruso all below -3. Caruso and Wallace really bad shooting, JDub, Joe and Dort just bad.
The 3 rookies all below -9.
Dieng up at the moment to meh -1 BPM. Still can't shoot average but blocking shots at the moment in a new role.
Shai more than doubles 3pt attempts and 3pt efg% falls below 27%. FT rate falls about 60%. Right now that is double disaster. TS% breaks new career low. Assist rate at 5 year low.
SGA OR%, steal and block rates at career highs.
Radically different mix of stats. What lasts, what reverts?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
After 3 games, almost all the bigger minute pairs are working well. But none over 20 minutes as good as Caruso with SGA or Holmgren (+50s to +60s) with the trio also best and even better (+72). But light minutes. Only 20th and 21st as pairs and 28th as a trio.
Will it start next? I doubt it.
Lineup expansion exceeds 20 brand new to get to 62 in 3 games. 3 over 7 minutes, 51 for 3 or less.
Will it start next? I doubt it.
Lineup expansion exceeds 20 brand new to get to 62 in 3 games. 3 over 7 minutes, 51 for 3 or less.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder TO% almost 20% below lowest team for last season.
Thunder, one of 8 teams below 50% efg%. No team finished below 50% last season. Only 1 team made playoffs below 54%.
Thunder, one of 8 teams below 20% ftm / fga.
Thunder with 4 factors in top 20%, 4 factors in bottom 30%.
Not sure where Thunder rates on Moreyball frequency overall but it's very low on FT and 3pt rates and high on at the rim rate. Probably below average.
SGA 17th in league on assists per game. Thunder, 22nd at team level. Cason Wallace with an absurd 4.9% assist rate. 1 of 9 below 10%.
For players with more than trivial minutes, it is 3 above league average ts% and 7 below.
Thunder, one of 8 teams below 50% efg%. No team finished below 50% last season. Only 1 team made playoffs below 54%.
Thunder, one of 8 teams below 20% ftm / fga.
Thunder with 4 factors in top 20%, 4 factors in bottom 30%.
Not sure where Thunder rates on Moreyball frequency overall but it's very low on FT and 3pt rates and high on at the rim rate. Probably below average.
SGA 17th in league on assists per game. Thunder, 22nd at team level. Cason Wallace with an absurd 4.9% assist rate. 1 of 9 below 10%.
For players with more than trivial minutes, it is 3 above league average ts% and 7 below.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
SGA with amazing early BPM, influenced strongly I think by the extreme low turnover and heightened rebounding. FT rate is barely more than half his career peak, ts% within a sliver of career worst.
All of the 3pt rate increase coming from mid-range. Was very good from mid-range last season. This season incredibly awful from 3-16 feet, amazing from 16-23 ft. Small sample, will want to see how it all shakes out. Would love to hear a reporter ask him and / or coach, if there was a plan to change his shot distribution and whose was it. I doubt it will be asked or answered but it is a very important question.
All of the 3pt rate increase coming from mid-range. Was very good from mid-range last season. This season incredibly awful from 3-16 feet, amazing from 16-23 ft. Small sample, will want to see how it all shakes out. Would love to hear a reporter ask him and / or coach, if there was a plan to change his shot distribution and whose was it. I doubt it will be asked or answered but it is a very important question.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Joe is a shooter who does little else and is off to worst efg%, by far worst ts% of career, horrendous BPM, negative raw +/- on the court on a team that is dominating and a horrendous on / off.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder weaknesses on offensive rebounding, ftas, 3pt fg% and assist rate persisting with the positives.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder take first place on SRS despite flaws.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Holmgren and Mitchell with pretty high turnover rates.
Holmgren compared to last season, averaging 1 more pt, 2 more ftas, 2 more rebounds, 1 more block, better than half an additional assist and steal. 1 more turnover.
Caruso, Joe, Wallace and Wiggins get free throws from 1 time in 20 to 1 in 40. 10-20% of league average.
Holmgren compared to last season, averaging 1 more pt, 2 more ftas, 2 more rebounds, 1 more block, better than half an additional assist and steal. 1 more turnover.
Caruso, Joe, Wallace and Wiggins get free throws from 1 time in 20 to 1 in 40. 10-20% of league average.