RAPM difference strong opponents - weak is a recently available measure.
Some notables:
Some big negative estimates (from worst to less worse)
Wiseman (almost -5), Jalen Green, SGA, Siakam, Jru Holiday, Kuminga, Randle, Cam Thomas, Aldama, N Reid, C Wallace, Hartenstein, S Henderson
3 on Thunder, 2 on Timberwolves.
Some big positives (best to lesser)
Kessler, Haliburton, Boucher, Mikal Bridges, Kawhi, PG, LBJ (just +1)
Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
League average 3pta per game has jumped 2.4 shots from last season to 37.5, the 3rd biggest jump in history if maintained for season. It appeared 35 might be the peak briefly but no. Reaching 40 is now fairly likely. How much further?
3pt fg% is lowest in 3 years and tied for 10th best ever. The efg% of a 3pta is slightly less than league average for all shots.
Offensive efficiency is down 2.1 pts from last season, the biggest drop in 13 years and the 5th biggest in over 50 years of recordkeeping. There have been sustained slides but only once (almost 30 years ago) has there been large declines (near or more than 2pts) 2 years in a row. It could of course recover some the rest of season and may be fairly likely to do so. I don't know the typical pattern or the week by week trend this season. If someone does for either or both, that would be useful to note.
3pt fg% is lowest in 3 years and tied for 10th best ever. The efg% of a 3pta is slightly less than league average for all shots.
Offensive efficiency is down 2.1 pts from last season, the biggest drop in 13 years and the 5th biggest in over 50 years of recordkeeping. There have been sustained slides but only once (almost 30 years ago) has there been large declines (near or more than 2pts) 2 years in a row. It could of course recover some the rest of season and may be fairly likely to do so. I don't know the typical pattern or the week by week trend this season. If someone does for either or both, that would be useful to note.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
If LeBron cares about other records from here, the targets could be:
5,000 point edge on Kareem
Enter top 25 on rebounding
Pass Reggie Miller on 3s made.
Maybe pass Gary Payton for 5th on steals.
Maybe pass Magic Johnson on triple doubles.
Fwiw, little or unknown, already has all-time most turnovers by over 15%.
61st on TS% and slipping a tiny bit.
56th on offensive rating. Some surprises on that list. Jordan 35th. https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... areer.html
3rd on BPM but 1st on VORP.
10th on points per 36 minutes.
5,000 point edge on Kareem
Enter top 25 on rebounding
Pass Reggie Miller on 3s made.
Maybe pass Gary Payton for 5th on steals.
Maybe pass Magic Johnson on triple doubles.
Fwiw, little or unknown, already has all-time most turnovers by over 15%.
61st on TS% and slipping a tiny bit.
56th on offensive rating. Some surprises on that list. Jordan 35th. https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... areer.html
3rd on BPM but 1st on VORP.
10th on points per 36 minutes.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
BPM has about 75 players rated +3 or better. DARKO 25.
BPM has about 120 +1.5 or better. Darko 60.
BPM has over 190 above neutral. Darko 150.
BPM with 250 at -1 or better. Darko has 280.
BPM has about 150 -3 and below. Darko 130.
The number of players varies from 500 to 530.
Some similarities. Some major differences at the top. Discussion? Adjustment? Better to use rating or rank?
I think I probably side more with Darko on the quantity at top or split the difference. One is current and smaller one is projection.
Did these metrics just have their distributions or were they guided?
I have used rating and rank and will have to think more about whether to prefer one. Might lean toward rank.
The distributions of other metrics or metrics blends could be checked too but this is enough to give some perspective.
The difference at the top would be important to recognize / consider when giving out new contracts. Many strong currents are not expected to persist at high levels, at least by Darko.
BPM has about 120 +1.5 or better. Darko 60.
BPM has over 190 above neutral. Darko 150.
BPM with 250 at -1 or better. Darko has 280.
BPM has about 150 -3 and below. Darko 130.
The number of players varies from 500 to 530.
Some similarities. Some major differences at the top. Discussion? Adjustment? Better to use rating or rank?
I think I probably side more with Darko on the quantity at top or split the difference. One is current and smaller one is projection.
Did these metrics just have their distributions or were they guided?
I have used rating and rank and will have to think more about whether to prefer one. Might lean toward rank.
The distributions of other metrics or metrics blends could be checked too but this is enough to give some perspective.
The difference at the top would be important to recognize / consider when giving out new contracts. Many strong currents are not expected to persist at high levels, at least by Darko.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
Foul rate is back to level of recent / historicaĺly low season rates.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
The distribution of the Darko top 50 is fairly close to even by position. Somewhat higher on Centers and PGs, modestly lower on group in between.
Average impact value by position for top group and overall would be interesting but not computed at this time.
Average impact value by position for top group and overall would be interesting but not computed at this time.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
All 3 leaders (Thunder, Cavs and Celtics) are strong scorers in first 2 quarters but only Cavs are in both parts of 2nd half on average. Celtics are modestly above average in 3rd quarter then are pretty strong in 4th. Thunder are slightly below average in 3rd then somewhat worse in 4th.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
The low values for some of these teams in the third and fourth quarters likely reflects blowout wins when they have pulled out their starters.Crow wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 6:26 pm All 3 leaders (Thunder, Cavs and Celtics) are strong scorers in first 2 quarters but only Cavs are in both parts of 2nd half on average. Celtics are modestly above average in 3rd quarter then are pretty strong in 4th. Thunder are slightly below average in 3rd then somewhat worse in 4th.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
Yes,, that is a factor. I observed results without commentary here, at least yet. A starting point fwiw. Other details could / should be checked but weren't at the time.
Blowout frequency and behavior are factors affecting net margin and maybe wins.
Cavs first for blowout wins, Thunder 2nd. Celtics 5th. All great win%s but Celtics perfect.
Few close games for any of them. Cavs and Celtics +1 win over losses, Thunder 0-3.
Another thing that could be checked include 15+pt leads that slip within 7 by the end or something like that. Would take more work than these other things but somebody with their own pbp database could probably do it quickly.
Thunder being below league average in 3rd might be more an issue than being bad in 4th but both are worth knowing and considering further. Lineups, shooting, hustle, etc. Games where threat of loss returned. In playoffs flubbing a big lead could be a major event.
Thunder from 3 in 3rd quarter slightly over 30%. Cavs almost 40%, Celtics 39%. Something few probably knew previously or still do given low readership. But thanks for the read and the nudge.
4th quarter, Cavs 3pt fg% remain strong at 38%. Celtics and Thunder slightly below 33%. Could be a problem sometimes for those 2. 25th and 27th best from 3 in the 4th for Cetics and Thunder respectively. Cavs 5th best. Mavs tied for 1st with Clippers. Nuggets 3rd.
Celtics slightly above average on FTA in 4th. Cavs and Thunder, 22nd and 20th.
All 3 win 4th. Cavs by the most, then Thunder then Celtics.
All 3 win 3rd. Celtics most, then Thunder, then Cavs.
Not all stats mean a lot. Randomness can affect. But better to know and consider than not. Better to start inquiries than not.
Cavs 46% from 3 in the 1st. Something for them and opponents to know and act on.
Cavs 1st quarter is strongest, Celtics 2nd, Thunder 4th. Griz 3rd. Cavs, Thunder and Griz also top 5 in 2nd, Celtics slip to 8th.
Celtics, Thunder and Griz are all strong in 3rd while Cavs slip to 11th. Knicks best then.
Knicks and Griz 21st and 22nd in 4th. How much of an issue. Need W/L splits. Below average in both but worse in wins.
Nobody better in 4th in loses than Thunder. Celtics terrible, 27th. Celtics and Cavs pretty good in 4th in Wins. Thunder slightly below average. Celtics and Cavs less catchable late. Thunder most likely to close. Catch? Need more details. Didn't in the 3 close games.
What else would you check? What would you fo with this information?
Rockets dead last on 4th quarter margin in wins, though it is only -1.2pts. Pretty good in losses.
There is probably more that could be said. Maybe later.
How many coaches or organizations knew most or all of this? What are they doing with the knowledge? What else do they know in this vein or others not generally known?
If a team didn't have this information, would they consider it worth getting? Getting exclusively? Changing work distribution to get what they aren't getting? What you don't do, don't consider matters along with what you do.
Blowout frequency and behavior are factors affecting net margin and maybe wins.
Cavs first for blowout wins, Thunder 2nd. Celtics 5th. All great win%s but Celtics perfect.
Few close games for any of them. Cavs and Celtics +1 win over losses, Thunder 0-3.
Another thing that could be checked include 15+pt leads that slip within 7 by the end or something like that. Would take more work than these other things but somebody with their own pbp database could probably do it quickly.
Thunder being below league average in 3rd might be more an issue than being bad in 4th but both are worth knowing and considering further. Lineups, shooting, hustle, etc. Games where threat of loss returned. In playoffs flubbing a big lead could be a major event.
Thunder from 3 in 3rd quarter slightly over 30%. Cavs almost 40%, Celtics 39%. Something few probably knew previously or still do given low readership. But thanks for the read and the nudge.
4th quarter, Cavs 3pt fg% remain strong at 38%. Celtics and Thunder slightly below 33%. Could be a problem sometimes for those 2. 25th and 27th best from 3 in the 4th for Cetics and Thunder respectively. Cavs 5th best. Mavs tied for 1st with Clippers. Nuggets 3rd.
Celtics slightly above average on FTA in 4th. Cavs and Thunder, 22nd and 20th.
All 3 win 4th. Cavs by the most, then Thunder then Celtics.
All 3 win 3rd. Celtics most, then Thunder, then Cavs.
Not all stats mean a lot. Randomness can affect. But better to know and consider than not. Better to start inquiries than not.
Cavs 46% from 3 in the 1st. Something for them and opponents to know and act on.
Cavs 1st quarter is strongest, Celtics 2nd, Thunder 4th. Griz 3rd. Cavs, Thunder and Griz also top 5 in 2nd, Celtics slip to 8th.
Celtics, Thunder and Griz are all strong in 3rd while Cavs slip to 11th. Knicks best then.
Knicks and Griz 21st and 22nd in 4th. How much of an issue. Need W/L splits. Below average in both but worse in wins.
Nobody better in 4th in loses than Thunder. Celtics terrible, 27th. Celtics and Cavs pretty good in 4th in Wins. Thunder slightly below average. Celtics and Cavs less catchable late. Thunder most likely to close. Catch? Need more details. Didn't in the 3 close games.
What else would you check? What would you fo with this information?
Rockets dead last on 4th quarter margin in wins, though it is only -1.2pts. Pretty good in losses.
There is probably more that could be said. Maybe later.
How many coaches or organizations knew most or all of this? What are they doing with the knowledge? What else do they know in this vein or others not generally known?
If a team didn't have this information, would they consider it worth getting? Getting exclusively? Changing work distribution to get what they aren't getting? What you don't do, don't consider matters along with what you do.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
Thunder 3pt shooting weak again in 3rd quarter tonight but most or everything else went well then.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
Grizzlies and Rockets:
2nd and 3rd in west by W-L, 4th and 5th overall on SRS.
Griz 5th best on offensive efficiency, Rockets 12th.
Rockets 3rd on defensive efficiency, Griz 5th.
Griz fastest pace, Rockets mildly below average.
Both above average on FT rate. Griz moderately, Rockets barely.
Both below average on 3pt rate. Griz moderately, Rockets 27th.
Griz, 4th best team TS%, Rockets 5th worst.
Rockets best OR%, Griz 2nd.
Both about average at defensive rebounding.
Kind of surprising that it is close overall with the difference on offense but it is.
2nd and 3rd in west by W-L, 4th and 5th overall on SRS.
Griz 5th best on offensive efficiency, Rockets 12th.
Rockets 3rd on defensive efficiency, Griz 5th.
Griz fastest pace, Rockets mildly below average.
Both above average on FT rate. Griz moderately, Rockets barely.
Both below average on 3pt rate. Griz moderately, Rockets 27th.
Griz, 4th best team TS%, Rockets 5th worst.
Rockets best OR%, Griz 2nd.
Both about average at defensive rebounding.
Kind of surprising that it is close overall with the difference on offense but it is.
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
Griz with Ja Morant on the floor are 2.7 poss/48 higher paced than without him. Opponents, however, only change by 0.3 then.
With Zach Edey they are 2.1 slower, while the other team runs 2.6 fewer possessions. Go figure.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 25/on-off/
Guessing they aren't on the floor together very often.
(Unrelated, but why aren't team and opponent pace the same?)
Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail
Morant and Edey together for 310 minutes. +16.2 pts / 100p. 65 minutes use in 4 of last 5 games. Half comes as starting unit, which is +32 in last 5.