2024-25 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

Teemo pulls ahead, and dtka takes the RMSE lead (barely).

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   5.95   8.3   .54      eExp   6.98   8.9   .54
avgA   6.01   8.3   .51      24pr   7.01   9.6   .35
bpmW   6.09   8.2   .52      Crow   7.09   9.1   .49
WShr   6.22   8.6   .48      emin   7.13   9.5   .44
dtka   6.23   8.1   .55      eWin   7.64   9.8   .32
DQin   6.45   8.7   .50      24py   7.79  10.9   .35
KPel   6.55   8.1   .58      perW   7.91  10.1   .29
medi   6.55   9.3   .47      bmgm   8.50  11.3   .36
vegas  6.57   8.7   .51               

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

UPDATE Jan. 18
Wisdom of the Crowd takes the (miniscule) lead.

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
avgA   5.77   8.1   .54      Crow   6.89   8.8   .51
TmTj   5.77   8.1   .56      emin   6.95   9.3   .47
dtka   5.95   7.9   .58      eExp   6.97   8.7   .56
bpmW   6.02   8.1   .56      24pr   7.01   9.6   .37
WShr   6.17   8.5   .51      eWin   7.54   9.7   .34
DQin   6.23   8.4   .54      24py   7.64  10.7   .37
medi   6.40   9.1   .49      perW   7.73   9.9   .32
vegas  6.41   8.5   .53      bmgm   8.23  11.0   .38
KPel   6.47   8.0   .60               

Season low errors for avgA, dtka, and vegas. ('Season' now defined as 'since Dec. 1').
The past 4 days have also seen low/best errors for medi, and season worst for KPel and eExp. Unusual to see highs and lows on the same days.
KPel and others using his minutes are all falling away.

Checking every exponent, there are 3 lead changes between avgA and TmTj

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e = .10          e = 1.30         e = 1.85         e = 6.50   
3.20   avgA      6.52   TmTj      7.59   dtka      12.2   KPel
3.34   TmTj      6.53   avgA      7.76   KPel      12.7   dtka
3.69   KPel      6.56   dtka      7.77   bpmW      13.5   eExp
3.74   WShr      6.66   bpmW      7.77   avgA      13.9   bpmW
3.83   medi      6.91   DQin      7.78   TmTj      13.9   TmTj

They are tied at 1.1, 1.6, and 3.5

UPDATE Jan. 21

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
avgA   5.86   8.2   .54      emin   6.97   9.3   .47
dtka   5.98   7.9   .57      eExp   7.01   8.8   .56
TmTj   6.02   8.3   .55      Crow   7.02   8.9   .51
bpmW   6.07   8.2   .54      24pr   7.11   9.7   .36
WShr   6.24   8.6   .49      eWin   7.57   9.8   .33
DQin   6.34   8.5   .53      perW   7.73  10.0   .32
vegas  6.48   8.6   .52      24py   7.80  10.9   .36
KPel   6.51   8.0   .58      bmgm   8.41  11.2   .37
medi   6.60   9.3   .48        

UPDATE Jan. 24 -- Teemo roars back.

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   5.92   8.3   .54      eExp   6.80   8.8   .55
avgA   6.03   8.3   .52      medi   6.82   9.4   .46
bpmW   6.13   8.2   .53      emin   6.91   9.3   .46
dtka   6.19   8.1   .55      Crow   7.13   9.0   .50
DQin   6.36   8.6   .52      24pr   7.20   9.8   .33
WShr   6.55   8.7   .47      eWin   7.42   9.8   .33
vegas  6.62   8.7   .51      perW   7.71  10.0   .30
KPel   6.69   8.1   .57      24py   8.07  11.1   .33
.                            bmgm   8.63  11.4   .35

[Crow]

SOS may affect projections some but BRef projections are that the top 4 in each conference with have a lower win rate for rest of season compared to season to date and the bottom 5s will all do better with one exception.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a copy of BRef current projections. Might be right in some cases but I think likely to be wrong as least as much or more often, especially with very bottom. "Wrong" modestly more often than not over last 10 games. Short term changes from season to date are more likely than longer term ones.

[Mike G]

After a night when 28 of 30 teams were in action, and many blowout decisions, contestants averaged .09 better MAE; but with a wide range of effects.
Negative is better in this list:

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since y'day
vegas  -.30
Crow   -.22
medi   -.21
dtka   -.19
emin   -.18
24pr   -.13
avgA   -.12
TmTj   -.09
KPel   -.07
eExp   -.06
DQin   -.05
24py   -.03
bmgm    .00
perW    .02
eWin    .04
WShr    .07
bpmW    .10

Season low errors for vegas and eminence; worst day for Win Shares.
The BPM entry's lead over Vegas went from .50 to .10

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.   avg err  rmse   r^2      .   avg err  rmse   r^2
TmTj   5.78   8.2   .55      eExp   6.70   8.7   .56
avgA   5.92   8.2   .53      emin   6.75   9.2   .47
dtka   6.02   8.0   .56      Crow   6.93   8.9   .51
bpmW   6.24   8.2   .53      24pr   7.04   9.7   .34
DQin   6.32   8.5   .53      eWin   7.43   9.8   .33
vegas  6.34   8.5   .53      perW   7.72  10.0   .30
KPel   6.52   8.0   .58      24py   8.00  11.0   .34
medi   6.58   9.3   .47      bmgm   8.59  11.3   .36
WShr   6.64   8.7   .47               

The tiers have largely evaporated.

[Crow]

Couple more days like yesterday would do a lot.

[Mike G]

MAE changes in the last week. Less is better.

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since 1/21       since 1/21
eExp   -.37      DQin   .00
TmTj   -.30      KPel   .01
emin   -.25      dtka   .06
vegas  -.25      avgA   .10
eWin   -.20      bpmW   .10
Crow   -.16      bmgm   .21
24pr   -.09      24py   .24
4141   -.01      medi   .30
perW   -.01      WShr   .36

UPDATE Jan. 31 -- Teemo is running away with it.

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   5.77   8.1   .57      WShr   6.73   8.8   .47
avgA   6.11   8.3   .54      medi   6.73   9.2   .48
dtka   6.22   8.1   .56      emin   6.91   9.2   .47
bpmW   6.30   8.3   .53      Crow   6.91   8.9   .52
vegas  6.37   8.6   .53      24pr   7.02   9.8   .35
DQin   6.45   8.6   .53      eWin   7.47   9.9   .33
KPel   6.49   8.0   .55      perW   7.85  10.2   .30
eExp   6.63   8.7   .57      24py   8.08  10.9   .35
.                            bmgm   8.64  11.2   .37

UPDATE Feb. 2

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   5.92   8.2   .55      medi   6.82   9.4   .46
avgA   6.39   8.3   .51      WShr   6.87   8.8   .45
dtka   6.43   8.2   .54      24pr   7.10   9.7   .34
bpmW   6.44   8.3   .51      emin   7.15   9.4   .45
KPel   6.55   7.9   .56      Crow   7.21   9.1   .49
eExp   6.55   8.7   .56      eWin   7.43   9.9   .32
vegas  6.64   8.7   .50      perW   7.85  10.1   .29
DQin   6.67   8.7   .51      24py   8.08  11.0   .34
.                            bmgm   8.56  11.3   .36

Worst error of the season for WS.
Yesterday, KPel had his worst error, and today his highest ranking since Dec.
Two weeks ago he had separated by .63 from his sidekicks at espn. Now they are exactly tied, but only at e = 1.00
I notice he was up at 3 AM writing about something or another...

UPDATE Feb. 7
Now seeing largest avg error for the field, and individually for bpm, KP, WS, Crow, and 24pr

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.19   8.4   .53      DQin   7.01   8.9   .49
dtka   6.59   8.3   .53      WShr   7.06   9.0   .42
avgA   6.60   8.4   .50      emin   7.21   9.3   .46
bpmW   6.64   8.5   .49      24pr   7.27   9.8   .32
eExp   6.76   8.8   .56      Crow   7.35   9.2   .48
KPel   6.78   7.9   .55      eWin   7.53   9.9   .31
vegas  6.79   8.8   .50      perW   8.03  10.2   .27
medi   6.83   9.5   .45      24py   8.35  11.2   .32
.                            bmgm   8.79  11.5   .34

Last year around this time, medi hit their biggest lead at 1.43 better than anyone else.
Teemo was ~.50 ahead of the pack a few days ago and has slipped just a bit since.

[Crow]

24py, last year's Pythagorean Wins, is doing very poorly. Worth some thought. It is a lot about coaching behavior and not a pure / reliable measure of "true" strength. Generally in that direction but not exactly or equally.

[Mike G]

Yeah, this year I haven't even included actual 2024 wins, because I guessed we had enough dummies in the mix. But it seems that is sometimes a better predictor than pyth Wins. Something about winning and losing cultures, perhaps.
The 24pr seems like a convenient baseline, offering no insights regarding rookies, trades, etc. You may just suppose Orlando is on the rise, or the Clippers are shaky, and up/down-grade them from last season.
The 50% regressed version is also devoid of any updates, and yet our own (regressed?) predictions don't automatically beat it. Randomness rules!

[Mike G]

The avg of all our errors is highest since Dec. 2; and the spread (from #1 to PER) is smallest in that same interval.

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.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.30   8.5   .52      DQin   7.02   8.9   .49
bpmW   6.62   8.5   .48      WShr   7.04   9.1   .42
dtka   6.66   8.3   .52      24pr   7.26   9.8   .31
avgA   6.67   8.5   .49      emin   7.36   9.4   .45
eExp   6.80   8.8   .55      Crow   7.41   9.2   .47
KPel   6.84   8.0   .54      eWin   7.49   9.9   .30
medi   6.90   9.5   .45      perW   8.00  10.2   .27
vegas  6.91   8.9   .48      24py   8.44  11.3   .31
.                            bmgm   8.89  11.6   .33

Teemo's lead grew steadily from his recapture around Jan. 22 to Feb. 2; narrowing from .51 to .32 since.
BPM now in 2nd with nearly its biggest error of the season. Parity is coming!
KP owns RMSE (and any power >1.5). Below 0.4 it's medi.

Feb 9.
11 days ago, we (as a group) had our lowest avg error since mid Dec; eminence and Vegas hit their season best.
Since then we've all gotten worse -- by the amounts shown:

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since 1/29   now
.07   bmgm   8.74
.14   medi   6.81
.18   eWin   7.50
.26   eExp   6.82
.28   24py   8.33
.30   24pr   7.25
.37   KPel   6.82
.37   perW   8.09
.39   WShr   6.98
.39   bpmW   6.56
.47   dtka   6.55
.49   DQin   6.86
.49   Crow   7.37
.50   TmTj   6.21
.57   avgA   6.54
.62   emin   7.34
.62   vegas  6.88

Not that long ago, TmTj had the worst guess on the Lakers, and now it looks like the best.
And I had the worst-looking guess for the Blazers; now back to best.

UPDATE Feb. 12
Most of us are having biggest or near-biggest errors of the season.
Leaders at some exponents:

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e = .10       e = .25       e = .84       e = 4.00  
4.07  eWin    4.76  medi    6.11  TmTj    10.68  KPel
4.28  medi    4.78  TmTj    6.39  avgA    11.15  dtka
4.36  avgA    4.80  eWin    6.44  bpmW    12.02  TmTj
4.44  eExp    4.84  avgA    6.46  dtka    12.04  bpmW
4.46  TmTj    4.95  eExp    6.57  medi    12.11  eExp

[Mike G]

AllStar Break.
15 teams are still entirely above or below all our guesses. Ten are in the West.

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w  Atl    w Bos    w Brk   w  Cha   w  Chi   w  Cle   w  Det   w  Ind
44  pW   62  em   37  KP   34  pW   35  WS   65 b-r   42 b-r   48  pW
41  WS   61  DQ   34  WS   33  em   35  bW   52  dt   33  eW   47  mr
41  dt   61  mr   31  eW   31  Cr   34  eW   50  mr   33  pW   47  Cr
41  bW   60  dt   30  pW   31  eW   34  pW   51  KP   32  TT   47  KP
39  DQ   59  Cr   30 b-r   30  DQ   32 b-r   50  Cr   32  bW   46  dt
39  eW   59 b-r   29  bW   30  WS   32  KP   49  em   32  WS   45 b-r
39 b-r   57  TT   29  DQ   29  KP   31  TT   48  DQ   29  KP   44  em
38  mr   57  WS   26  dt   29  dt   30  dt   48  TT   28  em   44  TT
37  TT   56  bW   26  mr   28  bW   29  Cr   46  WS   28  dt   43  bW
35  Cr   52  pW   24  TT   26  TT   28  DQ   46  bW   27  Cr   43  WS
34  em   52  KP   23  em   24  mr   27  em   45  eW   26  DQ   42  DQ
32  KP   52  eW   18  Cr   23 b-r   25  mr   44  pW   26  mr   41  eW
                                             
w   Mia  w  Mil   w  NYK   w  Orl   w  Phl   w  Tor   w  Was      
47  em   50  dt   58  em   49  Cr   55  mr   34  KP   34  eW      
45  KP   49  DQ   53  Cr   48  mr   53  eW   32  pW   33  pW      
45  eW   48  em   53 b-r   46  dt   52  pW   32  WS   28  WS      
43  bW   48  Cr   50  TT   44  WS   51  TT   32  em   28  bW      
43  dt   47  KP   50  dt   44  KP   47  DQ   32  bW   24  KP      
43  WS   45  pW   48  mr   43  DQ   47  dt   30  eW   21  dt      
42  mr   45  TT   45  KP   43  TT   46  WS   30  dt   19  em      
42  DQ   44  mr   44  WS   42  em   46  Cr   30 b-r   19  Cr      
42  TT   44 b-r   43  DQ   41  bW   46  bW   29  mr   18  mr      
41  pW   44  bW   43  bW   39 b-r   45  KP   29  DQ   16 b-r      
40  Cr   44  WS   41  eW   39  eW   43  em   29  TT   15  TT      
40 b-r   43  eW   38  pW   34  pW   32 b-r   25  Cr   14  DQ      
                                             
w  Dal   w  Den   w  GSW   w  Hou   w  LAC   w  LAL   w  Mem   w  Min
56  DQ   53  em   52  Cr   51 b-r   47 b-r   47 b-r   54 b-r   57  em
53  pW   53 b-r   49  DQ   47  eW   45  DQ   45  TT   51  KP   55  DQ
52  eW   51  mr   49  TT   46  mr   44  WS   44  Cr   49  Cr   53  eW
52  TT   51  dt   48  mr   45  bW   40  bW   44  dt   48  em   52  mr
51  Cr   51  eW   47  em   44  TT   40  dt   43  DQ   45  DQ   51  Cr
50  KP   49  pW   46  bW   44  Cr   36  KP   42  em   43  dt   50  WS
50  bW   49  DQ   45  dt   44  WS   36  TT   41  KP   43  eW   50  bW
47  WS   49  Cr   45  KP   43  pW   35  mr   39  mr   43  mr   50  dt
47  dt   47  KP   44  WS   40  KP   35  pW   39  bW   42  pW   48  TT
47  mr   47  WS   43 b-r   38  dt   33  Cr   38  WS   41  bW   47 b-r
45 b-r   47  bW   41  eW   36  DQ   32  em   37  pW   41  TT   46  pW
43  em   46  TT   40  pW   33  em   31  eW   36  eW   34  WS   43  KP
                                             
w  NOP   w  OKC   w  Phx   w  Por   w  Sac   w  SAS   w  Uta      
49  mr   66 b-r   51  TT   33 b-r   50  Cr   38  em   33  pW      
49  em   62  mr   50  mr   33  KP   49  KP   37  pW   32  eW      
48  Cr   61  DQ   49  dt   31  eW   49  bW   37 b-r   32  WS      
45  DQ   59  TT   48  Cr   28  pW   48  pW   36  eW   31  mr      
44  bW   58  em   48  pW   27  bW   47  eW   36  bW   29  KP      
44  pW   55  WS   47  bW   26  Cr   47  DQ   34  WS   29  DQ      
44  TT   54  bW   47  WS   26  WS   47  TT   34  TT   29  dt      
44  WS   54  Cr   46  em   26  DQ   47  dt   34  KP   29  bW      
44  eW   54  dt   45  KP   24  TT   46  WS   31  DQ   28  em      
42  dt   54  KP   45  eW   24  mr   44  em   31  dt   27  TT      
42  KP   52  pW   43  DQ   23  em   42  mr   31  mr   26  Cr      
21 b-r   49  eW   37 b-r   22  dt   41 b-r   29  Cr   22 b-r      

In the last 3 days before the break, almost all hit or approached our worst errors of the season. (Exceptions: medi, DQ, vegas)

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.38   8.6   .52      WShr   7.16   9.2   .43
dtka   6.68   8.4   .53      emin   7.42   9.5   .45
avgA   6.69   8.7   .49      24pr   7.44  10.0   .33
bpmW   6.78   8.8   .49      Crow   7.47   9.4   .47
medi   6.92   9.7   .45      eWin   7.76  10.2   .30
DQin   6.93   8.9   .50      24py   8.33  11.3   .33
KPel   6.95   8.3   .56      perW   8.36  10.5   .26
vegas  7.06   9.2   .47      bmgm   8.72  11.6   .34
eExp   7.07   9.2   .54               

[Crow]

PER wins next to worst.

BetMGM might be strategically off to affect betting. Either that or they might be in for big losses?

[DQuinn1575]

AllStar Break.
15 teams are still entirely above or below all our guesses. Ten are in the West.

Code: Select all

w  Atl    w Bos    w Brk   w  Cha   w  Chi   w  Cle   w  Det   w  Ind
44  pW   62  em   37  KP   34  pW   35  WS   65 b-r   42 b-r   48  pW
41  WS   61  DQ   34  WS   33  em   35  bW   52  dt   33  eW   47  mr
41  dt   61  mr   31  eW   31  Cr   34  eW   50  mr   33  pW   47  Cr
41  bW   60  dt   30  pW   31  eW   34  pW   51  KP   32  TT   47  KP
39  DQ   59  Cr   30 b-r   30  DQ   32 b-r   50  Cr   32  bW   46  dt
39  eW   59 b-r   29  bW   30  WS   32  KP   49  em   32  WS   45 b-r
39 b-r   57  TT   29  DQ   29  KP   31  TT   48  DQ   29  KP   44  em
38  mr   57  WS   26  dt   29  dt   30  dt   48  TT   28  em   44  TT
37  TT   56  bW   26  mr   28  bW   29  Cr   46  WS   28  dt   43  bW
35  Cr   52  pW   24  TT   26  TT   28  DQ   46  bW   27  Cr   43  WS
34  em   52  KP   23  em   24  mr   27  em   45  eW   26  DQ   42  DQ
32  KP   52  eW   18  Cr   23 b-r   25  mr   44  pW   26  mr   41  eW
                                             
w   Mia  w  Mil   w  NYK   w  Orl   w  Phl   w  Tor   w  Was      
47  em   50  dt   58  em   49  Cr   55  mr   34  KP   34  eW      
45  KP   49  DQ   53  Cr   48  mr   53  eW   32  pW   33  pW      
45  eW   48  em   53 b-r   46  dt   52  pW   32  WS   28  WS      
43  bW   48  Cr   50  TT   44  WS   51  TT   32  em   28  bW      
43  dt   47  KP   50  dt   44  KP   47  DQ   32  bW   24  KP      
43  WS   45  pW   48  mr   43  DQ   47  dt   30  eW   21  dt      
42  mr   45  TT   45  KP   43  TT   46  WS   30  dt   19  em      
42  DQ   44  mr   44  WS   42  em   46  Cr   30 b-r   19  Cr      
42  TT   44 b-r   43  DQ   41  bW   46  bW   29  mr   18  mr      
41  pW   44  bW   43  bW   39 b-r   45  KP   29  DQ   16 b-r      
40  Cr   44  WS   41  eW   39  eW   43  em   29  TT   15  TT      
40 b-r   43  eW   38  pW   34  pW   32 b-r   25  Cr   14  DQ      
                                             
w  Dal   w  Den   w  GSW   w  Hou   w  LAC   w  LAL   w  Mem   w  Min
56  DQ   53  em   52  Cr   51 b-r   47 b-r   47 b-r   54 b-r   57  em
53  pW   53 b-r   49  DQ   47  eW   45  DQ   45  TT   51  KP   55  DQ
52  eW   51  mr   49  TT   46  mr   44  WS   44  Cr   49  Cr   53  eW
52  TT   51  dt   48  mr   45  bW   40  bW   44  dt   48  em   52  mr
51  Cr   51  eW   47  em   44  TT   40  dt   43  DQ   45  DQ   51  Cr
50  KP   49  pW   46  bW   44  Cr   36  KP   42  em   43  dt   50  WS
50  bW   49  DQ   45  dt   44  WS   36  TT   41  KP   43  eW   50  bW
47  WS   49  Cr   45  KP   43  pW   35  mr   39  mr   43  mr   50  dt
47  dt   47  KP   44  WS   40  KP   35  pW   39  bW   42  pW   48  TT
47  mr   47  WS   43 b-r   38  dt   33  Cr   38  WS   41  bW   47 b-r
45 b-r   47  bW   41  eW   36  DQ   32  em   37  pW   41  TT   46  pW
43  em   46  TT   40  pW   33  em   31  eW   36  eW   34  WS   43  KP
                                             
w  NOP   w  OKC   w  Phx   w  Por   w  Sac   w  SAS   w  Uta      
49  mr   66 b-r   51  TT   33 b-r   50  Cr   38  em   33  pW      
49  em   62  mr   50  mr   33  KP   49  KP   37  pW   32  eW      
48  Cr   61  DQ   49  dt   31  eW   49  bW   37 b-r   32  WS      
45  DQ   59  TT   48  Cr   28  pW   48  pW   36  eW   31  mr      
44  bW   58  em   48  pW   27  bW   47  eW   36  bW   29  KP      
44  pW   55  WS   47  bW   26  Cr   47  DQ   34  WS   29  DQ      
44  TT   54  bW   47  WS   26  WS   47  TT   34  TT   29  dt      
44  WS   54  Cr   46  em   26  DQ   47  dt   34  KP   29  bW      
44  eW   54  dt   45  KP   24  TT   46  WS   31  DQ   28  em      
42  dt   54  KP   45  eW   24  mr   44  em   31  dt   27  TT      
42  KP   52  pW   43  DQ   23  em   42  mr   31  mr   26  Cr      
21 b-r   49  eW   37 b-r   22  dt   41 b-r   29  Cr   22 b-r      

In the last 3 days before the break, almost all hit or approached our worst errors of the season. (Exceptions: medi, DQ, vegas)

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.38   8.6   .52      WShr   7.16   9.2   .43
dtka   6.68   8.4   .53      emin   7.42   9.5   .45
avgA   6.69   8.7   .49      24pr   7.44  10.0   .33
bpmW   6.78   8.8   .49      Crow   7.47   9.4   .47
medi   6.92   9.7   .45      eWin   7.76  10.2   .30
DQin   6.93   8.9   .50      24py   8.33  11.3   .33
KPel   6.95   8.3   .56      perW   8.36  10.5   .26
vegas  7.06   9.2   .47      bmgm   8.72  11.6   .34
eExp   7.07   9.2   .54               

There are 9 teams that I am within 3 games of B-Ref projections.
8 are in the East.

[Crow]

Half a point or a point off of the leader is not much and still pretty good.

To get closer to actual, a projection set probably needs to expect the statistically unexpected, in the right way.

Statistically unexpected or just unaccounted for?

Brooklyn, new head coach wanting to prove competency before tank. Hornets, LaMelo injured again. Pistons get vet starters and a Coach. TWolves lose their star. Pelicans really don't make sense and then get injured. Thunder ascend with effort and clunky part removed. Embid and George don't play much.

Not going to guess all the unexpected. Injuries are a big factor. But some looking beyond the strict numbers maybe helpful. Unless you are playing very conservative.

What's the average length of time before teams bounce off their bottom? Closer to 3 or 4? I don't actually know. Checking could help.

[Mike G]

Worse than the last report but not as bad as yesterday.

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.33   8.7   .52      WShr   7.27   9.3   .42
dtka   6.63   8.5   .52      Crow   7.40   9.5   .46
avgA   6.74   8.8   .49      emin   7.52   9.6   .45
KPel   6.83   8.3   .55      24pr   7.55  10.1   .32
medi   6.84   9.8   .44      eWin   7.95  10.4   .28
DQin   6.90   9.0   .50      24py   8.28  11.3   .32
bpmW   6.92   8.9   .47      perW   8.42  10.6   .25
vegas  7.02   9.3   .46      bmgm   8.64  11.7   .34
eExp   7.14   9.3   .54               

Pelton trending up, bpm sinking.

UPDATE feb. 25 -- Closest #1-2 since Jan. 23

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.41   8.8   .51      eExp   7.26   9.4   .53
dtka   6.57   8.6   .52      WShr   7.29   9.4   .42
avgA   6.72   8.8   .48      Crow   7.45   9.4   .47
medi   6.87   9.8   .44      emin   7.49   9.6   .45
bpmW   6.90   8.9   .47      24pr   7.56  10.1   .32
KPel   6.91   8.4   .56      eWin   8.07  10.4   .28
DQin   6.96   9.1   .49      24py   8.31  11.4   .32
vegas  7.18   9.4   .46      perW   8.55  10.7   .25
eExp   7.26   9.4   .53      bmgm   8.70  11.7   .33

e=.25             e=.85             e=1.60           e=4.6   
4.32   dtka      6.04   TmTj      7.84   dtka      11.3   KPel
4.54   TmTj      6.21   dtka      7.86   KPel      11.8   dtka
4.64   medi      6.41   medi      7.86   TmTj      12.7   bpmW
5.11   bpmW      6.56   bpmW      8.15   bpmW      13.0   TmTj
5.22   DQin      6.62   DQin      8.26   DQin      13.1   WShr
5.31  vegas      6.65   KPel      8.53  vegas      13.1   DQin

[Crow]

AvgAPBR over ESPN experts and Vegas at this point.


50% BPM + 50%TT?
30% BPM + 30%TT +40% avgA?
How good would they be?
50% avgA + 50% Eexp?
What composite, if any, gets below 6.0 avg error?

[knarsu3]

Is there a reason the LEBRON and DARKO projections aren't included?

Worse than the last report but not as bad as yesterday.

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.33   8.7   .52      WShr   7.27   9.3   .42
dtka   6.63   8.5   .52      Crow   7.40   9.5   .46
avgA   6.74   8.8   .49      emin   7.52   9.6   .45
KPel   6.83   8.3   .55      24pr   7.55  10.1   .32
medi   6.84   9.8   .44      eWin   7.95  10.4   .28
DQin   6.90   9.0   .50      24py   8.28  11.3   .32
bpmW   6.92   8.9   .47      perW   8.42  10.6   .25
vegas  7.02   9.3   .46      bmgm   8.64  11.7   .34
eExp   7.14   9.3   .54               

Pelton trending up, bpm sinking.

UPDATE feb. 25 -- Closest #1-2 since Jan. 23

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
TmTj   6.41   8.8   .51      eExp   7.26   9.4   .53
dtka   6.57   8.6   .52      WShr   7.29   9.4   .42
avgA   6.72   8.8   .48      Crow   7.45   9.4   .47
medi   6.87   9.8   .44      emin   7.49   9.6   .45
bpmW   6.90   8.9   .47      24pr   7.56  10.1   .32
KPel   6.91   8.4   .56      eWin   8.07  10.4   .28
DQin   6.96   9.1   .49      24py   8.31  11.4   .32
vegas  7.18   9.4   .46      perW   8.55  10.7   .25
eExp   7.26   9.4   .53      bmgm   8.70  11.7   .33

e=.25             e=.85             e=1.60           e=4.6   
4.32   dtka      6.04   TmTj      7.84   dtka      11.3   KPel
4.54   TmTj      6.21   dtka      7.86   KPel      11.8   dtka
4.64   medi      6.41   medi      7.86   TmTj      12.7   bpmW
5.11   bpmW      6.56   bpmW      8.15   bpmW      13.0   TmTj
5.22   DQin      6.62   DQin      8.26   DQin      13.1   WShr
5.31  vegas      6.65   KPel      8.53  vegas      13.1   DQin