Warriors lineup management

[Crow]

Kerr has used 608 lineups. Over 10 new per game.

76 minutes for most used. Only 3 over 50 minutes, 10 total over 25 minutes. So 3 non dinks (over 1 minute per game) and almost everything super dink (less than 0.5 minutes per game). 587 for 10 minutes or less each.

Such selectivity and judgment. Not. Very chaotic, in the moment thinking. Pretty close to free random.

2 current possible pairs over 10 minutes per game then 170 others. 70 over 3 minutes per game and over 100 averaging less.

20 lineups and 51 pairs used in last game. 57 lineups and 75 pairs over the last 5.

[Crow]

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1883563869442134211

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1883574587163828502

Curry Wiggins Kuminga Green Post recommended on January 26. Never used before or after that date.

What does a metric that projects performance based on boxscore over marginal teammate suggest about how that would do? By my reading of the available data, I think it would have done well.


Kerr too busy with 649 other lineups to try. At all.

Who was more sensible here, the guy that suggesting testing this pretty obvious lineup or the guy with all the experience and support who did not test it at all and split the available testing time 649 ways, the vast supermajority being dinks and super dinks with very little or no meaning or value or prospect for use in playoffs?

[Crow]

Kerr lineups choices are positive in 40.7% of cases. Pretty typical though I haven't compared across league recently.

Could it be better? I'd guess yes.

9th best SRS is pretty good but that has led to a current 6th seed and a BRef projection of 0.3% chance to win title.

Continue as is or change anything about approach?

[Crow]

Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga,,+24pts / 100p...

In 38 minutes of use.


Lots of combos here that perhaps should be discontinued in lieu of this one or others which are performing well.

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 41,1630228

[Crow]

From pre-season:

Rough initial lineup plan (not ordered in use):

Cur Podz Kum Gre TJD 15 min
C Podz Wig K G 6
C Mel Pay W G 5
C Mel W G TJD 4
C Mel Mood G TJD 2
C Pay Podz G TJD 2
C Pay Mood G TJD 2
Mel Podz Mood K Loon 6
Mel Podz Mood K TJD 6

Of 9 lineups, 6 ruled out now by trades. Under and way under 15 minutes use for season for 3 still possible and some of the others or none at all.


From late Jan.

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1883604226422833608

7 lineups, 6 untried, 1 great in small minutes. 4 possibilities gone with trades.


Kerr at 696 lineups used.

Hard to miss using lineups entirely when using so many but missed or used trivially was the rule on these suggestions. So my "track record" here doesn't really exist because of Kerr's choices. Hard to say how good they would have done in real test. But I'd have tried significantly before almost all the ones actually tried.

[Crow]

Warriors 21st in league on efg%. Down from 12th last season.

[Crow]

Kerr at 728 lineups used. Just 3 for over 40 minutes. None over 200 minutes. Less than 7% over 15 minutes for season.

[Crow]

Followup comments from the above post onwards here;

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1909318210610250091

[Crow]

22 lineups used last night. 1 over 4 minutes. 10 positive.

Got enough to win a play-in game with not much to spare.

[Crow]

Curry Butler is the worst performing pair in 6 most used, though only mildly negative.

Butler Green is 7th most used and 3 times as negative.

5 games, 81 lineups. 2 over 3 minutes per game, none over 6. 36% positive is kinda low for a leading team. 50 - 50 in top 6 and 10.

96% of lineups only used in 1-2 games. Lots of questionables if you are not using much.

[Crow]

Kerr uses 18 lineups tonight. 5 of 6 most used negative. 8 brand new for the series because... Not able to save the game from those bad bigger lineups.

[Crow]

Warriors related comments:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1918697176328216621

[Crow]

Butler Kuminga was worst pair in 16 most used. Followed by Green GP2 and Green Kuminga.

Will all these pairs be gone before the next time? Didn't have to play them or as much.

Butler Hield was meh.

[Crow]

Curry - Butler - Green was good in regular season. Weaker than most of the 10 most used but better than team average. Strong in various ways but not on net 3pt stats. Stayed good in playoffs despite terrible rebounding. Best big minute trios had Green and 1 or none of the other stars in regular season and playoffs. Trio used 45% of Butler's regular season minutes, 35% in playoffs. Probably should have been more in playoffs as it was about Butler's best trio, though a number of non Butler trios were better.

[Crow]

Unclear how Kuminga saga plays out.

Decent but only roughly near median BPM.

Worst or near worst of career on nearly every shooting measure. Little recent progress elsewhere except for less fouling (which would need further evaluation to judge).

Consistently horrendous team results on and on / off in 3 playoffs, albeit in limited minutes.