Celtics comments
Re: Celtics comments
January was a pretty bad month for them.
Re: Celtics comments
Last 10 has straightened out for team. Holiday is the big issue.
Re: Celtics comments
Holiday somewhat better this month.
Hard to see being acceptable to remain next season or the season after that.
See some trade possibilities with Blazers and Wizards. Outside chance with Bucks.
Hard to see being acceptable to remain next season or the season after that.
See some trade possibilities with Blazers and Wizards. Outside chance with Bucks.
Re: Celtics comments
Celtics offer terms are offer terms.
A serious bidder, imo, could counter with own offer terms.
A serious bidder, imo, could counter with own offer terms.
Re: Celtics comments
Whoever is in control in July, I'd recommend trying to trade Holiday and actively exploring trading Brown. If you win a 2nd title, probably don't do the later, but maybe. See what you can get. Compare with and without.
Both could redeem / forestall movement in upcoming playoffs. See how it goes.
Both could redeem / forestall movement in upcoming playoffs. See how it goes.
Re: Celtics comments
Never been less solid public info about a sale progression.
Bill Simmons early comments did not stand up to current indications or lack of indications.
Bill Simmons early comments did not stand up to current indications or lack of indications.
Re: Celtics comments
Cavs even season at 2-2.
Re: Celtics comments
If Celtics keep core intact, next season it will have 2 over 35, 2 more over 30 and almost a third.
Experience has generally been a playoff positive but there could be too much and the edge may be shifting to younger.
Have to watch & assess specifically and generally.
Experience has generally been a playoff positive but there could be too much and the edge may be shifting to younger.
Have to watch & assess specifically and generally.
Re: Celtics comments
The most used Celtics lineup is the worst performing in 12 most used.
It only loses by -2 pts / 100p, but loses net 3pt fg% badly, 2nd worst among 20 most used lineups. Loses rebounding. Only 12th best of 20.
Used an average if 6 minutes per game for season, the loss isn't that big but when it was used, it was used 15 minutes per game.
-47pts / 100p in 1 game against Cavs. That hurt.
Sub Horford for Porzingis and it was great (+36pts / 100p) in one game against Cavs.
Overall for season, starters with Horford are great (+20) with best net 3pt fg% margin of 20 most used lineups. Rebounding is still a loss but the 3pt win is so huge it doesn't really matter.
This choice would seem important in a likely future playoff series.
Hauser has 3 great bigger minute lineups against Cavs.
About 40 lineups used in 4 games against Cavs. 2 used 3 times, 2 twice and 36 one time only. That seems like chaos to me. 5 tested 10+ minutes, 29 for 5 or less. 40% got positive results.
Cavs used 52 lineups against Celtics. Only 4 over 10 minutes and all were bad. Slightly more more than 40% were positive.
What did either side learn? Wait n see.
Some things could be suggested from the data but the sample is so small, made even lesser by the chaos.
Were there lineup plans / strategies for these games? I'll have to look closer. I wouldn't have done what was done.
Could have used 7-10 lineups almost entirely. Something to at least consider. Neither side can call the series and choices made a great success.
Celtics won twice with clearly better shooting. Cavs won once with shooting, once with rest of game.
Celtics 2-2 with Tatum having strong gmBPM. Cavs win 2 of 3 when Mitchell was strong and lost when he was not.
Garland had 2 bad games. Brown 2 bad games and a miss.
Horford 2 good, 2 not. Porzingis 1 good and 3 misses.
It only loses by -2 pts / 100p, but loses net 3pt fg% badly, 2nd worst among 20 most used lineups. Loses rebounding. Only 12th best of 20.
Used an average if 6 minutes per game for season, the loss isn't that big but when it was used, it was used 15 minutes per game.
-47pts / 100p in 1 game against Cavs. That hurt.
Sub Horford for Porzingis and it was great (+36pts / 100p) in one game against Cavs.
Overall for season, starters with Horford are great (+20) with best net 3pt fg% margin of 20 most used lineups. Rebounding is still a loss but the 3pt win is so huge it doesn't really matter.
This choice would seem important in a likely future playoff series.
Hauser has 3 great bigger minute lineups against Cavs.
About 40 lineups used in 4 games against Cavs. 2 used 3 times, 2 twice and 36 one time only. That seems like chaos to me. 5 tested 10+ minutes, 29 for 5 or less. 40% got positive results.
Cavs used 52 lineups against Celtics. Only 4 over 10 minutes and all were bad. Slightly more more than 40% were positive.
What did either side learn? Wait n see.
Some things could be suggested from the data but the sample is so small, made even lesser by the chaos.
Were there lineup plans / strategies for these games? I'll have to look closer. I wouldn't have done what was done.
Could have used 7-10 lineups almost entirely. Something to at least consider. Neither side can call the series and choices made a great success.
Celtics won twice with clearly better shooting. Cavs won once with shooting, once with rest of game.
Celtics 2-2 with Tatum having strong gmBPM. Cavs win 2 of 3 when Mitchell was strong and lost when he was not.
Garland had 2 bad games. Brown 2 bad games and a miss.
Horford 2 good, 2 not. Porzingis 1 good and 3 misses.
Re: Celtics comments
A lineup plan for the Cavs series could have been:
2 lineups for 40 minutes each
4 lineups for 20 minutes each
4 lineups for 8 minutes each.
"Need" flexibility? Cut the top 6 by 20-30% and have 32-48 minutes to play with. Could be 4-6 more lineups for 8 minutes.
Do you want or need more than 10-14-16 lineups to play the Cavs? I'd say probably better not to play more.
In 2023 playoff series against Cavs, they used 32 lineups. 16 for 3 minutes or less each. The 16 smallest lineups combined for -9. The top 3 lineups combined for +40. The 13 in the middle were +5. The top 3 won it.
Largely just Horford - J. Holiday - J. Brown - J. Tatum - D. White but also two lineups with Holiday Tatum Pritchard Hauser and Horford or Kornet.
In this season's games against Cavs, the 2nd and 3rd most used lineups from the previous playoff series were used / further tested by 3 minutes and no minutes.
A lineup with both Horford and Kornet, Tatum, Hauser, Pritchard and no Holiday (and no Brown) has been tested pretty well in general and is great. Didn't get around to using that in Cav playoff series last season. Too many other dinks taking up valuable space. Didn't get around to using it against Cavs this season either. Just too many dinks distracting, too many plausible or seemingly attractive options or is there a case against that lineup vs. Cavs? Didnt shoot well from 2 but did well in general on net 3pt fg% and rebounded well.
Intentionslly hold Pritchard, Hauser, Tatum Horford and Kornet from Cavs to make it a playoff "surprise"? I guess you could think that. But they should be aware it exists and watch the tape and plan for it. And if you don't test on Cavs in advance, you also don't know if or how well it works in advance. I'd rather know than guess.
2 lineups for 40 minutes each
4 lineups for 20 minutes each
4 lineups for 8 minutes each.
"Need" flexibility? Cut the top 6 by 20-30% and have 32-48 minutes to play with. Could be 4-6 more lineups for 8 minutes.
Do you want or need more than 10-14-16 lineups to play the Cavs? I'd say probably better not to play more.
In 2023 playoff series against Cavs, they used 32 lineups. 16 for 3 minutes or less each. The 16 smallest lineups combined for -9. The top 3 lineups combined for +40. The 13 in the middle were +5. The top 3 won it.
Largely just Horford - J. Holiday - J. Brown - J. Tatum - D. White but also two lineups with Holiday Tatum Pritchard Hauser and Horford or Kornet.
In this season's games against Cavs, the 2nd and 3rd most used lineups from the previous playoff series were used / further tested by 3 minutes and no minutes.
A lineup with both Horford and Kornet, Tatum, Hauser, Pritchard and no Holiday (and no Brown) has been tested pretty well in general and is great. Didn't get around to using that in Cav playoff series last season. Too many other dinks taking up valuable space. Didn't get around to using it against Cavs this season either. Just too many dinks distracting, too many plausible or seemingly attractive options or is there a case against that lineup vs. Cavs? Didnt shoot well from 2 but did well in general on net 3pt fg% and rebounded well.
Intentionslly hold Pritchard, Hauser, Tatum Horford and Kornet from Cavs to make it a playoff "surprise"? I guess you could think that. But they should be aware it exists and watch the tape and plan for it. And if you don't test on Cavs in advance, you also don't know if or how well it works in advance. I'd rather know than guess.
Re: Celtics comments
Celtics starters with Porzingis is worst lineup among league's 13 most used.
With Horford, 19th most used and best in that group.
Bucks 2nd worst in 13 most used. Thunder 2nd best.
Rockets also have a big swing with one change. Starters with Smith strong (+8), with Thompson (-8).
Blazers, Pelicans and Wizards with the other worst big minute lineups.
With Horford, 19th most used and best in that group.
Bucks 2nd worst in 13 most used. Thunder 2nd best.
Rockets also have a big swing with one change. Starters with Smith strong (+8), with Thompson (-8).
Blazers, Pelicans and Wizards with the other worst big minute lineups.
Re: Celtics comments
9 of 20 most used lineups picked by Coaches with big degrees of freedom are negative, with 3 notables going from bad to horrendous.
Re: Celtics comments
The weakest player pairs in 20 most used for Celtics are Porzingis with D White, Brown and Tatum. Pair level is the biggest sample, though not a straightforward, easy interpretation. It is fact though. That is something.
Re: Celtics comments
Other lineups/ minutes issues for Celtics could include:
Minutes and utilization of J Holiday. 11th best in team by raw team +/- on court and on / off. The most used lineups and pairs look fine but there must be issues somewhere in the vast log of dink lineups to pull overall results down.
11th best BPM but 5th in minutes allocation.
Very helpful last playoffs but worst regular season since rookie year according to BPM. Near worst ratings on split data vs. Cavs and even worse against Thunder and very worst against Pacers.
Brown 3rd in minutes, 10th on BPM. 10th on and on / off. Same issue for Brown as Holiday. Somewhere there are issues in the dibks pulling his overall results down. Always more reason for spending more time on the data as poorly developed and limited as it is. Cavs and Thunder are his 2nd and 3rd worst splits by boxscore data.
There are a few weaker than normal Pritchard pairs and trios better to be aware of as well than not.
Things to find, then watch further and possibly make recommendations on.
Brown meh against Cavs and Pacers last regular season. Still bad against Thunder. Fine against Cavs in playoffs. Holiday followed a somewhat similar pattern except good in regular season against Cavs and Pacers instead of meh.
Lots of data to assimilate.
Some or much of this is new to many?
Even if team has all of this, did they reflect and act on it? Repetition wouldn't hurt if it happens and may help.
Imo an outside consultant should be bold / fearless and probably sometimes annoying. Filter, use what they think best but think about the data reported and initial takes. Yeah, they decide. But look for ways to refine strategy and tactics.
Minutes and utilization of J Holiday. 11th best in team by raw team +/- on court and on / off. The most used lineups and pairs look fine but there must be issues somewhere in the vast log of dink lineups to pull overall results down.
11th best BPM but 5th in minutes allocation.
Very helpful last playoffs but worst regular season since rookie year according to BPM. Near worst ratings on split data vs. Cavs and even worse against Thunder and very worst against Pacers.
Brown 3rd in minutes, 10th on BPM. 10th on and on / off. Same issue for Brown as Holiday. Somewhere there are issues in the dibks pulling his overall results down. Always more reason for spending more time on the data as poorly developed and limited as it is. Cavs and Thunder are his 2nd and 3rd worst splits by boxscore data.
There are a few weaker than normal Pritchard pairs and trios better to be aware of as well than not.
Things to find, then watch further and possibly make recommendations on.
Brown meh against Cavs and Pacers last regular season. Still bad against Thunder. Fine against Cavs in playoffs. Holiday followed a somewhat similar pattern except good in regular season against Cavs and Pacers instead of meh.
Lots of data to assimilate.
Some or much of this is new to many?
Even if team has all of this, did they reflect and act on it? Repetition wouldn't hurt if it happens and may help.
Imo an outside consultant should be bold / fearless and probably sometimes annoying. Filter, use what they think best but think about the data reported and initial takes. Yeah, they decide. But look for ways to refine strategy and tactics.
Re: Celtics comments
So apparently 4 bids to buy Celtics. 1 from existing partner and 3 outside. None of the outside names "reported" / speculated by Bill Simmons.
2nd round bids by tomorrow? Assume that the bidders get to know the opposing bids?
2nd round bids by tomorrow? Assume that the bidders get to know the opposing bids?