Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

Thunder currently matched up with Timberwolves as 8th seed. 2W-2L in regular season.

Out of Thunder's hand. Others might possibly be able to angle in or out of a Thunder matchup.

Still considered most likely to be Kings but 5 teams are close in likelihood.

[Crow]

The 3 combinations of Caruso, Joe and Wallace are the 3 negative / worst big minute pairs over last 10 games. Fine for season. It might be noise. But if the film guys had time, I'd review that tape.

[Crow]

Repeating parts from February and updating:

Last playoffs, they used 79 lineups. The 5 most used did good on average but lost against Mavs.

What will be the 5 most used in this playoffs? What "should" it be? In general and against specific opponents? How much time compared to tier 2 and dink lineups?

By actual data, the 5 most used all look very good. One change from most used lineup. Staying with that appears good but could you do better?

All have Dort and JDub. It works fine but is it optimal? SGA without Dort and JDub was nearly 3 times as positive as with previously and is still twice as good. Could check on the slippage though.

Caruso does not appear in 5 most used despite the now 2nd best overall performance with SGA (passed recently by K Williams). Caruso excluded from big 5 for a reason or just rigid lineup habits? Will K Williams play in playoffs at all and with SGA? A few of many questions.

How many lineups will they use this playoffs? Similar to last time or more or less? What is the plan? I'd hope for more concentration on the best.

[Crow]

Last playoffs, Thunder mainly played 9. 6 were at least alright in rough terms. Wallace, Dort and Giddey were not.

Wallace and Dort look like the bottom of a 9 man rotation again, if they go with 9.

Will they go with 9? Or 10 or 11?

Wallace currently with 10th best on the court +/- and on /off. Jalen Williams 11th on, 13th on / off. But they aren't going to change those roles or minutes. Too late, don't work that way.

[Crow]

"Shai -0.6 on 7 yr RAPM against strong opponents. 4.2 differential from rating against weak. Could be major... if "true" or close to true."

[Crow]

Updating from December:

Hartenstein has been good overall but:

eFG% and TS%, 2nd lowest in 5 years
FT rate, lowest of career moved to 2nd lowest
OR%, 2nd lowest of career moved to 4th lowest
A/TO barely 1.1 moved significantly to 2.2
Steal and block rates, both career lows, down notably from last season, now tied for low and 2nd lowest
Hasn't not made a 3.
OBPM, 2nd lowest in 4 years
Overall BPM down about 15, now 13%.

On the plus side

By far best DR% is now best by a little.

[Crow]

"Holmgren - Hartenstein is a massive success in first 49 minutes together (+27 pts / 100p..."

Still great but only half as great and in between just Chet and just Hartenstein.

[Crow]

Last season Holmgren strung big rebound games (8+) together in consecutive 3-4 game groups fairly regularly but it was still just occasional. Early on this season a few 3 game streaks. Now it is few 2 game streaks. Sharing with Hartenstein. But some concerns.

Game today, just 3 rebounds. 0 offensive rebounds in 4 of last 5 games.

[Crow]

Starters with Holmgren - Hartenstein got 10 minutes today. Slightly less than average. Only positive lineup. Perhaps could have tried more, not that it would have been enough. But rather than turn more to this lone positive, Coach D gave almost 80% of time to lineups that went negative including a few brand new ones.

Lakers, 96 minutes of 6-8+ inside. Thunder 50. Didn't work.

Another chance on Tuesday. Better shooting? More rim pressure? Better defense? More lineup concentration?

[Crow]

Not settled but today's results broadly make it less likely that the Thunder meet Lakers in 2nd round. More likely Warriors or Nuggets.

[Crow]

Thunder lead on lowest average opponent 3pt fg%... but most playoff seeds in west shoot well against them.

Get the 1 seed... and likely face a +5 SRS team...

[Crow]

BRef estimates still 7 possible first round opponents. Grizzlies most likely but only 31% of the total.

[Crow]

Need to dog deeper on what's up with Dieng. Hasn't played in nearly a month and barely since a big game on March 7.

Injury reported; but as usual, hard to interpret.

Will he play any in playoffs? Probably not the plan.

Next season? Good or great chance of a trade?

The value of all the previous and future draft picks is lessened by lack of room to play them and limited ability or desire to retain.

Churn baby churn. Well or not so well.

Several recent players that there was no room left for are doing well or pretty well elsewhere for somebody's else's benefit. Expect to see that many more times.

[Crow]

Main boxscore stat differences between Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams are offensive rebounding and ft rate. A little elsewhere but modest. And then 2 to 1 on minutes and 15 to 1 salary ratio. Hartenstein 2 to 1 on metric average but Williams better on one and about tied on another.

[Crow]

Still 4 possible 1st opponents.


Western playoff teams on average are slightly offensive biased.


Near a week off will help and hurt. Feel better but chances for shooting to drift off.