Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Mike G »

Morant and Edey together for 310 minutes. +16.2 pts / 100p. 65 minutes use in 4 of last 5 games. Half comes as starting unit, which is +32 in last 5.
Interesting. And without those 316 'together' minutes, Edey would have slowed the team down even more, Ja would have sped it up even more.
Up until a year or so ago, writers were still saying Edey was wrong for the NBA. Maybe good 40 years ago, but no more.
What little I have seen, can definitely look a bit lost; on offense and on D.

In his 4th year at Purdue, he finally shot a 3-pointer; hit 1 of 2 in fact.
This year he is 12/29 for .379. These 29 shots bring his eFG% down from .612 to .606.
Only 7 rookies have attempted more with a better %.

No rookie is averaging more points AND more rebounds.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

This season has the largest increase in turnovers per game over last season (+0.9) in 42 years and 2nd largest ever recorded.

I assume it is mainly the result of more aggressive defense allowed by refs than more sloppiness or mere randomness.

Will want to see what happens in next few years.

Thunder may be a leading increase but has to be one of many.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

Jazz take the highest rate of shots from 3-10 feet. One of 5 teams than hit 50% or more. Griz and Warriors 2nd and 3rd on frequency, somewhat lower efficiency.

On average they are 21% of shots 45.6% fg%. 3rd best distance but not really an outright strength.
At rim and 3pt are the clear 1 & 2.

Bucks only take 50% of the max and about 1/3rd less than the league average.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

Durant could catch Jordan for 5th on all-time regular season scoring by end of next season. Assume he'll pass Bryant eventually. Second to reach 40k? A tall task but a slight chance.

Westbrook trying for a championship...and 30k pts? Harden a virtual certainty to get there.

Curry should pass Jerry West and Reggie Miller by end of season. Another destined for top 10 but how high?

Folks getting pushed down. Chamberlain will get pushed out of top 10. Jordan too eventually. Maybe Kobe.

LeBron push for 50k?

Chris Paul to catch Iverson?

How high for Giannis? Should hit 20k next month.

Jokic? 30 or 40k?

Others will reach 20k. Several handfuls at least in intermediate future and then of course more in long-term.

How high for Anthony Davis?

Tatum for 30+k? Booker? Who else? Lillard?

I don't pay much attention to NBA history and records but that is a quick look.

Not long til Bird is outside the top 50. Maybe Barkley too. Folks in 20s will go to 30s and maybe 40s. Olajuwon eventually pushed out of top 25.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

Morant - Edey 3rd best player pair in 21 most used but 21st ìn use.

Non-optimal / coaching "mistake" or leave the chaos king coach alone?
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Mike G »

They've played 33 games together. Given their mpg, they'd randomly expect 425 minutes mutual court time.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

And actual minutes are just modestly above your random based projection.

Coincidence or truly mostly random?
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

Darko has projected 8 +4 or better. EPM predictive 15, EPM actual 11.

All 8 of Darko's are top 15 on EPM predictive, though exact ranks vary a bit.

The biggest "surprise" in top 15 on EPM predictive, if any, is probably Zubac. Plenty of people would subjectively rank others above him. Whatever you think of those opinions. Some probably would do same with F Wagner but less likely for others.

Harden, Curry, Embid and Leonard are other Darko top 15s who are top 15 on EPM predictive, but James, Edwards, Holmgren and A Davis are not. Edwards is just the slightest miss on EPM predictive at +3.9. Holmgren and A Davis miss by a bit more. LeBron by more.

About half of BPM's top 15 are not on both lists. A few not on either (all bigs).
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into statistical and comparative statistical detail

Post by Crow »

3pta per game is up to 37.5 per game for league and has been there for weeks if not months. Up 2.4 from last season. Will it reach 40 next season or take a few years?

3pt% is off a bit and 8th best.

Offensive rebounding per game at 12 year high.

Assists down 0.1 from last season's all-time high.

FTA is 0.1 from all-time low.

Average TS%, Offensive Rating and Points / gm down slightly to date from last season.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Post by Crow »

Jordan needed Wizards stint to break 30,000 regular season points and pass J Erving and Chamberlain.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Post by Mike G »

He also quit just before his career PPG went below 30.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Post by Crow »

Legacy choices or coincidences. Probably legacy choices.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Post by Crow »

Celtics foul the least. Thunder 5th highest rate.

4 wins each on 4 factor direct comparison (not offense - defense).

Compared to league, Celtics finish with 5 top 10s, 1 mid, 2 bottom 10s. Thunder finish with 4 top 10s, 1 mid, 3 bottom 10s.

Thunder 12 players with on the court +/- real near +10, Celtics 6 and then 4 pretty close.

Porzingis is only player on either team notably over 500 minutes but not at least pretty close to +10 on court. He was though in last playoffs.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Post by Crow »

22 players played 80+ games.
For same team.
106 more played 70-79 games.
89 more played 60-69 games.
74 more played 50-59 games.
Crow
Posts: 10533
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

Post by Crow »

Before tonight, Thunder - Grizzlies was only one played at a pace above / even near regular season average.

3pta per game down 2.6 (before tonight).
Post Reply