playoff prediction contest proposal

[Mike G]

Actual playoffs start on Saturday, and we haven't had a contest for a few days, so how about one?
An ultra-simple scoring that maybe encourages gambling on upsets: For guessing the winner of a series, you get points equal to the seeding of the winning team. (For subsequent playoff rounds, this may change.)
Here's where it now stands:

Code: Select all

Den   4   5   LAC      Ind   4   5   Mil
LAL   3   6   Min      NYK   3   6   Det
Hou   2   7   GSW      Bos   2   7   Orl
OKC   1   8   Mem      Cle   1   8   Mia

If you pick all the favorites (higher seeds) in a conference, and they all prevail, you would get 10 points: 4+3+2+1
If you pick the higher seeds in the West, with the exception of Dubs>Rockets -- and win them all -- you would get 4+3+7+1=15 points.
Any series you guess wrong = 0 pts.

[Crow]

Using this scoring method:

5 LAC Ind 4
LAL 3 NYK 3
7 GSW Bos 2
OKC 1 Cle 1

7 GSW Bos 2
LAC 5 Cle 1

LAC 5 Bos 2

Bos 2

Subject to possible change before Saturday games.

You appear to want to score each round and then guess again. Could be done that way or all at once. Fwiw, I did an all at once entry but the first round is the same.

Will see what any others prefer and / or you propose. If the scoring method changes, my picks might change.

[Mike G]

We can just double the scoring for round 2, triple for CF, quadruple for the Finals.
If you're behind in later rounds, you might pick the underdogs.

It makes sense to me to guess each round as they arrive.
Doing all in advance as you did, you leave default picks for the next round, if you don't change it.

[DSMok1]

We can just double the scoring for round 2, triple for CF, quadruple for the Finals.
If you're behind in later rounds, you might pick the underdogs.

It makes sense to me to guess each round as they arrive.
Doing all in advance as you did, you leave default picks for the next round, if you don't change it.

I propose that we use the seed of the winning team +2 in round one, +4 in the second round, +8 in CF, +16 in the finals. Doubling gets weird depending on the seeds in later rounds (remember the Miami Heat...)

Could consider also giving a bonus point for picking the length of the series correctly.

[Mike G]

That's an exponential increase in the importance of guessing the late rounds. I personally am more interested in each team being analyzed for whatever insights we may have; injury, recency, matchups etc.
Winning the whole contest by a long-shot guess at the Finals would make the other 14 series feel kind of trivial?

Guessing the length of a series: With simplicity as one of the attractions(IMO), I wonder if this helps. A bad referee whistle may change the series length, but a lot less likely to decide a series.

I see Hollinger has posted his predictions along with reasoning. Shall we have "media" entries? Vegas?

Hot tip: Over 7 games, there's a 1-in-5 chance Joker hits a 3/4-court shot.

[Crow]

My playoff contest is underway, on time. Hope to score a point or many.

[Mike G]

Damn it's already happening.
Pacers all over Bucks in the 1st, so I will take Mil in that one.

OKC 1 - Cle 1
5 LAC - 5 Mil
6 Min - NYK 3
Hou 2 - Bos 2

[Mike G]

Hollinger:
5 LAC - Ind 4
LAL 3 - NYK 3
7 GSW - Bos 2
OKC 1 - Cle 1

OKC 1 >LAC - Cle 1 >Ind
7 GSW >LAL - Bos 1 >NYK

OKC 1 >GSW - Bos 2 >Cle

OKC 1 >Bos

Is there a Vegas out there?

[Crow]

Different formats and entries

Can use one or more of these for your version:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/nba-playoff-odds-2025/
Use series odds for 1st round

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/nba-playoffs--odds
Use series markets

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigati ... nba-finals
use east and west 1st rd
series pages

[DSMok1]

Here were my picks, realized I hadn't posted them here yet.

Thunder in five
Nuggets in seven
Lakers in seven
Warriors in six

Cavs in five
Pacers in five
Knicks in six
Celtics in four

[Mike G]

Everybody likes GSW > Hou, in spite of the season-long excellence of Hou.
It's the 2nd biggest difference in player Age in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

GSW 28.6 - 24.9 Hou
LAC 29.7 - 27.0 Den
LAL 27.9 - 27.2 Min
OKC 24.8 - 24.7 Mem

Bos 28.9 - 24.9 Orl
Mil 29.3 - 25.8 Ind
NYK 27.5 - 25.8 Det
Mia 26.8 - 26.6 Cle

If Curry, Butler, and Draymond, all age 35-37, get more than usual minutes, the Dubs are even older than their season avg.
Only 3 of the Rockets' top 11 players are over the Dubs' avg age -- VanVleet, Brooks, Adams -- none over 31.
They'll wear the Dubs down in a long series.

[Mike G]

Late entries shall be given the team that is behind in the series or game.
Is that acceptable?

[Crow]

https://shiny.sradjoker.cc/NBA-Playoff-Probabilities/

[DSMok1]

https://shiny.sradjoker.cc/NBA-Playoff-Probabilities/

Wow, that's a very interesting tool!

[Mike G]

There is quite a lot of variance in the different systems.
Chances of the lower seed winning:

Code: Select all

1st rd matchup    upset prob%
east  seeded  fav   hi   lo  tipp
Mil   5   4   Ind   43    9   44
Det   6   3   NYK   25   10   33
Orl   7   2   Bos    7    3   22
Mia   8   1   Cle    4    1   11
                  
west  seeded  fav   hi   lo  tipp
LAC   5   4   Den   57   24   44
Min   6   3   LAL   61   29   33
GSW   7   2   Hou   72   56   22
Mem   8   1   OKC    7   22   11

Final column is the "tipping point" percentage, where the points one would get with our current scoring outweigh the odds of losing -- a Wolves win is worth 2* a Lakers' win.
Everyone still picks the higher seed in the East; in the West, not at all. Someone could even have taken Mem>OKC