WNBA 2025 eWins etc.

[Mike G]

Scoring rate is relative to league-avg 81.3 pts/G, and rebounds relative to the current 52.4 avg.
Both are also scaled to opponent points and tm+opp rebounds.
Assists are relative to tm+opp points and also to home/away Ast/FG differential.

eWins are estimated wins added to the team and projected to the full 44-game schedule, assuming current minutes continue over the duration.

Code: Select all

e44    per36 rates     tm   G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e404
9.8   A'ja Wilson     LVa   6  34  .561   27.8  10.9   5.3   2.3   2.9  2.9   2.69
8.7  Napheesa Collier Min   7  35  .613   32.9   9.7   4.1   2.2   3.0  1.2   2.63
7.7  Breanna Stewart  NYL   7  28  .635   31.3   5.5   6.2   1.8   2.0  1.7   2.51
7.4   Allisha Gray    Atl   7  35  .649   26.5   5.3   5.4    .8   1.3   .6   1.93
6.8   Satou Sabally   Phx   8  30  .503   27.7   9.7   3.1   2.4   3.2   .8   2.12

6.8  Sabrina Ionescu  NYL   7  29  .581   28.6   5.2   7.3   1.4   2.7   .2   2.15
6.7   Aliyah Boston   Ind   7  30  .677   23.9   9.6   4.7    .6   1.6  2.1   2.09
6.5   Jonquel Jones   NYL   6  28  .591   26.4  14.2   4.9    .8   2.9  2.0   2.50
6.0   Natasha Cloud   NYL   7  28  .603   18.5   5.2  11.1   2.2   2.3   .9   1.99
5.9   Dearica Hamby   LAS   8  34  .549   19.9   8.9   4.2   1.8   2.6   .5   1.59

e44    per36 rates     tm   G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e404
5.8   Rhyne Howard    Atl   7  36  .477   18.2   5.6   5.8   2.1   2.2   .7   1.48
5.6   Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   8  32  .543   21.2  10.3   2.7   1.3   2.3   .6   1.63
5.4   Brittney Sykes  Was   7  34  .495   24.3   5.3   5.4   1.7   3.6   .6   1.67
5.3   Kelsey Plum     LAS   8  37  .538   23.8   2.5   4.8   1.8   3.7   .1   1.33
5.3   Azura Stevens   LAS   8  30  .588   18.3  11.9   1.5   1.6    .8   .9   1.64

5.3 Courtney Williams Min   8  29  .459   19.1   6.7   9.0   1.4   3.2   .2   1.69
5.1   Skylar Diggins  Sea   8  32  .549   21.3   2.8   8.0   1.6   4.2   .7   1.47
4.9   Brionna Jones   Atl   7  32  .524   17.1  10.7   3.6   1.3   2.3   .5   1.43
4.6   Jackie Young    LVa   6  31  .562   24.1   3.8   3.9   1.4   3.0   .2   1.39
4.6   Kiki Iriafen    Was   8  28  .568   21.0  13.0   1.3    .6   2.7   .2   1.49

e44    per36 rates     tm   G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e404
4.5   Alanna Smith    Min   7  25  .704   22.4   5.9   4.2   1.4   1.5  3.1   1.90
4.3   Alyssa Thomas   Phx   5  33  .531   18.9   8.1   9.4   1.9   3.8   .9   1.89
4.3   Gabby Williams  Sea   8  34  .589   18.1   3.9   4.3   2.2   3.1   .8   1.16
4.0   Caitlin Clark   Ind   4  35  .528   21.6   6.2  10.4   1.4   5.3  1.1   1.85
4.0   Ariel Atkins    Chi   6  28  .605   20.2   5.4   3.7   1.9   2.4   .4   1.33

4.0  Kelsey Mitchell  Ind   7  32  .494   20.9   1.4   3.7   1.6   1.5   .2   1.14
3.8   Paige Bueckers  Dal   6  34  .524   15.4   5.0   7.2   2.1   2.5  1.1   1.37
3.8  Veronica Burton  GSV   6  27  .554   17.6   6.1   5.9   2.9   2.9   .4   1.48
3.7   Angel Reese     Chi   6  29  .395   10.2  16.7   3.0   2.2   4.8   .4   1.16
3.6   Sonia Citron    Was   8  31  .614   19.2   5.2   2.5    .7   2.2   .6   1.05
3.5  Arike Ogunbowale Dal   8  33  .461   16.5   3.4   4.2   1.9   2.1   .0    .97

Kinks are still being worked out in what is basically a conversion from NBA standards to WNBA.

[Crow]

Can't say I've been following.

Clark 24th and Bueckers 26th here.

Stewart with great overall scoring efficiency thanks in part to career high FT rate, almost double career average. Abysmal from 3. Rebounding rate barely half of career average. Career high assist rate. Adapting to teammates to some degree I guess.

[Mike G]

Clark 24th and Bueckers 26th here.

Both have missed games with injury. If they had played all games at current rates and minutes, they'd be #5 and 20 respectively.

[Crow]

Yes.

For impact, playing time matters. For talent, per minute offers a fair comparison.

[Crow]

Clark had a 2nd injury.

Rated 20-40th on several other metrics. Could bolster the case of the low player vote on her. Currently below 30% from 3.

[Mike G]

Season 45.5% complete.

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e44    per36 rates    tm    G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
8.0 Napheesa Collier Min   18  33  .608   31.6   8.8   4.3   1.8   2.7  1.7   2.55
6.6   Aliyah Boston  Ind   20  30  .614   22.6  10.2   4.8   1.0   1.9  1.4   2.01
6.6  Breanna Stewart NYL   19  33  .558   24.0   7.0   4.7   1.3   2.5  1.4   1.84
6.4   A'ja Wilson    LVA   16  30  .543   26.0  10.5   4.5   2.1   3.0  3.0   2.41
5.9  Sabrina Ionescu NYL   18  32  .544   24.2   5.2   7.0   1.7   3.1   .5   1.82

5.8   Allisha Gray   Atl   20  36  .596   21.3   5.6   4.6    .9   1.8   .5   1.49
5.8   Co. Williams   Min   21  28  .502   20.6   6.6   9.3   2.2   3.3   .3   1.91
5.7   Alyssa Thomas  Phx   15  31  .561   19.7   9.0  12.9   2.0   3.8   .5   2.28
5.7  Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   21  31  .584   21.7   9.2   3.0   1.5   2.4   .8   1.67
5.6   Satou Sabally  Phx   18  28  .515   25.5  10.0   3.8   1.9   3.1   .7   2.02

e44     11-20         tm    G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
5.3  Skylar Diggins  Sea   21  32  .554   22.0   2.6   7.0   1.3   2.8   .8   1.50
5.3   Azura Stevens  LAS   20  29  .605   18.2  11.3   2.4   1.7   2.1  1.7   1.66
5.2   Dearica Hamby  LAS   20  32  .565   18.4   9.0   4.1   2.0   3.3   .6   1.46
5.0   Angel Reese    Chi   19  31  .500   14.3  14.9   4.2   1.7   4.3   .7   1.47
5.0   Rhyne Howard   Atl   19  35  .488   17.3   5.3   5.4   1.7   2.0  1.0   1.37

4.9   Brionna Jones  Atl   20  30  .560   18.3   9.9   3.3   1.4   1.9   .6   1.51
4.8  Gabby Williams  Sea   21  34  .551   16.1   5.1   5.1   2.6   2.4   .6   1.29
4.7   Jackie Young   LVA   20  30  .540   21.2   5.2   5.2   1.3   3.1   .5   1.43
4.6  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   20  31  .551   24.2   2.0   3.5   1.1   1.8   .3   1.35
4.3  Kayla Thornton  GSV   19  30  .505   19.0   8.9   1.7   2.0   2.1   .2   1.38

e44     21-30         tm    G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
4.3   Kelsey Plum    LAS   19  36  .542   19.4   3.4   5.9   1.3   3.4   .2   1.16
4.2   Alanna Smith   Min   20  27  .556   16.1   7.6   4.4   1.4   2.2  3.2   1.51
3.9  Paige Bueckers  Dal   16  35  .535   18.2   4.3   5.7   1.8   2.3   .9   1.36
3.9   Kiki Iriafen   Was   20  27  .514   17.2  11.8   2.1   1.1   2.6   .2   1.32
3.8   Natasha Cloud  NYL   18  29  .540   13.8   4.6   8.9   1.6   2.5   .4   1.27

3.8  Brittney Sykes  Was   17  32  .495   20.0   4.4   5.6   1.4   3.6   .3   1.25
3.7   Sonia Citron   Was   20  33  .580   17.1   5.7   2.3   1.3   1.9   .3   1.02
3.7  Veronica Burton GSV   19  29  .509   14.4   5.3   7.2   1.7   2.4   .6   1.25
3.6   Chelsea Gray   LVA   20  30  .572   16.3   5.1   5.8   1.6   4.1   .7   1.07
3.5  Natasha Howard  Ind   20  24  .563   18.6  10.4   1.9   1.6   3.4   .7   1.33

e44     31-40         tm    G  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
3.4   Ariel Atkins   Chi   19  30  .526   15.9   4.0   4.2   2.2   3.0  1.1   1.04
3.4  Shakira Austin  Was   17  21  .506   21.1  11.1   2.9   1.8   3.8  1.6   1.71
3.3   Ezi Magbegor   Sea   21  27  .514   10.9   8.6   3.4    .9   1.2  2.8   1.12
3.1   Erica Wheeler  Sea   21  27  .535   15.7   4.2   5.2   1.5   2.3   .3   1.05
3.1   Kayla McBride  Min   17  32  .581   19.2   2.6   4.4   1.3   1.9   .1   1.10

3.0   Caitlin Clark  Ind   11  32  .489   19.6   5.8  10.7   1.7   6.2   .6   1.59
2.9   Tina Charles   Con   20  28  .481   17.7   6.8   1.8   1.0   3.1   .5    .94
2.9 Arike Ogunbowale Dal   18  34  .486   16.4   2.9   4.2   1.6   2.5   .3    .89
2.8   Sami Whitcomb  Phx   19  26  .569   16.3   4.9   3.9   1.3   2.0   .3   1.04
2.8  Kamilla Cardoso Chi   15  23  .581   19.6  10.1   2.8    .5   3.3  1.4   1.41

Still working out the bugs on conversion from NBA. The expansion Valkyries are about 14% under-valued relative to their SRS.

[Crow]

Clark 36th here.

Now below 29% from 3 and with a 45% efg%. Worst yet in 2 games so far in July.

3.6% from 3 on the road, in 4 games.

Another weak shooting game yesterday but tons of assists and a win.

[Mike G]

Categorical leaders, per 36 minutes, adjusted to team and opponent rates. Minimum 200 minutes.

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Reb     per36 rate     tm      Blk    per36 rate        tm
14.9   Angel Reese    Chi      3.2   Alanna Smith      Min
14.7   Jonquel Jones  NYL      3.0   A'ja Wilson       LVA
11.9  Jessica Shepard Min      2.8   Ezi Magbegor      Sea
11.8   Kiki Iriafen   Was      2.2 Olivia Nelson-Ododa Con
11.3   Azura Stevens  LAS      1.9   Brittney Griner   Atl
11.1  Shakira Austin  Was      1.8   Jonquel Jones     NYL
10.7   Li Yueru       Dal      1.7   Luisa Geiselsoder Dal
10.5   A'ja Wilson    LVA      1.7   Napheesa Collier  Min
10.5   Kiah Stokes    LVA      1.7   Azura Stevens     LAS
10.4  Natasha Howard  Ind      1.7   NaLyssa Smith     Dal


Ast    per36 rate      tm      Stl    per36 rate      tm
12.9  Alyssa Thomas   Phx      2.6   Gabby Williams  Sea
10.7  Caitlin Clark   Ind      2.5   Lexi Held       Phx
9.3 Courtney Williams Min      2.5   Jordin Canada   Atl
8.9   Natasha Cloud   NYL      2.3   Saniya Rivers   Con
8.0   Jordin Canada   Atl      2.2   Ariel Atkins    Chi
7.2  Veronica Burton  GSV      2.2 Courtney Williams Min
7.0   Skylar Diggins  Sea      2.1   A'ja Wilson     LVA
7.0  Sabrina Ionescu  NYL      2.0   Kayla Thornton  GSV
6.5  Natisha Hiedeman Min      2.0  Kathryn Westbeld Phx
6.0   Aari McDonald   Ind      2.0   Dearica Hamby   LAS
.                              2.0   Alyssa Thomas   Phx


Sco     per36 rate      tm     Eff%    per36 rates     tm
31.6  Napheesa Collier Min     .667   Kalani Brown    Phx
26.0   A'ja Wilson     LVA     .664   Leonie Fiebich  NYL
25.5   Satou Sabally   Phx     .652   Kennedy Burke   NYL
24.2   Kelsey Mitchell Ind     .631   Jacy Sheldon    Con
24.2   Sabrina Ionescu NYL     .627   Te-Hina PaoPao  Atl
24.0  Breanna Stewart  NYL     .614   Aliyah Boston   Ind
22.6   Aliyah Boston   Ind     .608  Napheesa Collier Min
22.0   Skylar Diggins  Sea     .605   Azura Stevens   LAS
21.7   Nneka Ogwumike  Sea     .599   Naz Hillmon     Atl
21.5   Jonquel Jones   NYL     .596   Allisha Gray    Atl

Sco     per36 rate      tm     Eff%    per36 rates     tm
21.3   Allisha Gray    Atl     .593  Rebekah Gardner  NYL
21.2   Jackie Young    LVA     .590  Jessica Shepard  Min
21.1   Shakira Austin  Was     .590  Monique A-Makani Phx
20.6 Courtney Williams Min     .584   Nneka Ogwumike  Sea
20.0   Tiffany Hayes   GSV     .582   Sug Sutton      Was
20.0   Brittney Sykes  Was     .581  Kamilla Cardoso  Chi
19.7   Alyssa Thomas   Phx     .581   Kayla McBride   Min
19.6  Kamilla Cardoso  Chi     .580   Sonia Citron    Was
19.6   Caitlin Clark   Ind     .579   Julie Allemand  LAS
19.4   Kelsey Plum     LAS     .577   Jonquel Jones   NYL

[Mike G]

Season at 64%

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e44   per36 rates      tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
8.2  Napheesa Collier Min   854  .627   33.7   8.5   4.4   2.0   2.5  1.8   2.55
6.9   A'ja Wilson     LVA   750  .557   27.8  11.0   4.3   2.0   2.9  2.8   2.43
6.2  Sabrina Ionescu  NYL   857  .547   25.8   5.5   6.9   1.6   3.4   .5   1.85
6.2   Aliyah Boston   Ind   876  .590   21.4  10.5   4.7   1.2   2.2  1.2   1.86
5.9   Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   892  .581   25.1   8.5   2.8   1.4   2.4   .7   1.76

5.9   Alyssa Thomas   Phx   720  .553   20.4   9.8  11.1   1.8   4.0   .6   2.09
5.9   Allisha Gray    Atl  1023  .591   22.7   5.9   4.5   1.2   2.0   .4   1.52
5.5   Dearica Hamby   LAS   873  .575   20.5   9.6   3.6   1.9   3.2   .6   1.55
5.4 Courtney Williams Min   833  .501   19.7   6.5   9.5   1.9   2.8   .4   1.73
5.3   Azura Stevens   LAS   787  .606   19.8  11.2   2.4   1.7   2.1  1.6   1.67

e44    11-20           tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
5.3  Breanna Stewart  NYL   756  .552   23.4   7.3   4.8   1.5   2.5  1.6   1.80
5.0   Jackie Young    LVA   854  .570   22.5   5.1   6.0   1.5   2.9   .4   1.56
4.9   Skylar Diggins  Sea   897  .534   21.4   3.4   6.8   1.2   2.8   .9   1.44
4.9  Kelsey Mitchell  Ind   893  .554   25.3   2.3   3.6   1.1   1.7   .2   1.44
4.8   Brionna Jones   Atl   809  .575   19.8  10.0   3.5   1.4   2.2   .9   1.56

4.7   Kelsey Plum     LAS   928  .566   21.1   3.5   5.8   1.4   3.4   .1   1.24
4.5   Gabby Williams  Sea   950  .526   15.8   5.3   5.3   2.9   2.3   .5   1.26
4.3   Satou Sabally   Phx   616  .498   24.2   9.1   3.5   1.9   2.9   .5   1.80
4.1   Natasha Howard  Ind   709  .581   19.7  10.7   2.2   1.8   2.9   .8   1.53
4.0   Paige Bueckers  Dal   792  .539   19.5   4.1   5.5   1.9   2.2   .7   1.34

e44    21-30           tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
4.0   Angel Reese     Chi   728  .515   15.8  14.4   3.8   1.7   4.7   .8   1.41
4.0   Kiki Iriafen    Was   743  .521   17.9  11.9   2.0   1.1   2.6   .1   1.37
3.9   Sonia Citron    Was   917  .581   18.0   5.4   2.6   1.5   2.0   .5   1.09
3.7  Veronica Burton  GSV   800  .531   14.9   5.6   6.9   1.4   2.6   .6   1.24
3.7   Alanna Smith    Min   734  .553   15.9   7.6   4.6   1.6   2.1  2.9   1.34

3.7   Shakira Austin  Was   571  .506   21.0  11.0   3.0   2.0   4.5  1.8   1.64
3.6   Kayla McBride   Min   783  .600   21.6   2.9   4.5   1.4   1.9   .1   1.20
3.5   Brittney Sykes  Was   774  .486   18.6   4.2   5.3   1.7   3.2   .4   1.17
3.5   Tina Charles    Con   773  .494   19.2   7.4   2.1   1.1   2.9   .4   1.10
3.4   Ezi Magbegor    Sea   793  .531   12.5   8.6   2.9   1.0   1.2  3.0   1.13

e44    31-40           tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
3.4   Natasha Cloud   NYL   782  .532   13.4   4.4   7.9   1.6   2.3   .4   1.10
3.3   Rhyne Howard    Atl   670  .488   17.9   5.4   5.2   1.7   2.0  1.0   1.32
3.2   Kayla Thornton  GSV   662  .486   17.3   8.8   1.9   1.6   2.0   .3   1.27
3.0   Jonquel Jones   NYL   409  .582   23.1  12.4   3.8    .7   2.9  1.6   1.90
3.0   Erica Wheeler   Sea   795  .507   15.7   4.2   5.2   1.6   2.4   .4   1.01

3.0   Chelsea Gray    LVA   866  .552   14.5   4.8   5.9   1.5   3.9   .8    .90
2.9  Kamilla Cardoso  Chi   613  .547   17.9  11.6   2.1    .5   3.5  1.2   1.21
2.9   Jordin Canada   Atl   603  .490   15.7   4.6   8.4   2.0   2.9   .3   1.27
2.7   Naz Hillmon     Atl   656  .615   15.5   8.4   3.6    .6   1.7   .8   1.11
2.7  Arike Ogunbowale Dal   864  .489   16.2   2.6   4.4   1.5   2.3   .3    .83

[Crow]

Other things might be notable; but I'll note that Bueckers is tied for 20th here (with Reese) and Clark is not in top 40. Still out with injury.

Pretty clear 1, 2, then a fairly broad group with modest rating differences.

[Mike G]

With the season 91% completed:

Code: Select all

e44    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
8.1   A'ja Wilson     LVA  .573   30.8  11.7   3.8   1.8   2.7  2.6   2.65
6.9  Napheesa Collier Min  .627   33.9   8.7   4.1   1.9   2.5  1.9   2.60
6.8   Alyssa Thomas   Phx  .566   20.7  10.0  11.4   1.9   3.9   .6   2.23
6.0   Aliyah Boston   Ind  .580   20.7  10.4   4.4   1.5   2.3  1.2   1.81
5.9   Allisha Gray    Atl  .578   23.2   5.8   4.2   1.2   1.9   .4   1.54

5.9   Nneka Ogwumike  Sea  .595   25.3   8.3   2.8   1.4   2.4   .5   1.75
5.8   Dearica Hamby   LAS  .597   22.3   9.6   3.5   1.9   3.2   .6   1.68
5.4   Jackie Young    LVA  .570   22.1   5.4   6.2   1.5   2.8   .5   1.61
5.3 Courtney Williams Min  .505   19.9   6.3   9.1   1.6   2.9   .4   1.69
5.3  Sabrina Ionescu  NYL  .529   23.5   5.4   6.7   1.4   3.1   .5   1.69

e44    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
5.1  Veronica Burton  GSV  .567   18.0   5.5   8.7   1.4   2.6   .8   1.60
5.0   Brionna Jones   Atl  .573   20.8  10.1   3.5   1.5   2.1  1.1   1.69
5.0  Kelsey Mitchell  Ind  .558   25.5   2.2   3.9   1.0   2.0   .2   1.44
4.8   Azura Stevens   LAS  .610   18.4  10.4   2.6   1.6   2.0  1.5   1.53
4.7   Skylar Diggins  Sea  .531   20.1   2.9   7.1   1.4   2.5  1.0   1.41

4.7   Kelsey Plum     LAS  .573   21.2   3.4   5.7   1.3   3.3   .1   1.24
4.6   Satou Sabally   Phx  .515   24.2   8.2   3.7   1.8   3.0   .5   1.77
4.2   Kiki Iriafen    Was  .545   19.2  12.4   2.2    .9   2.9   .2   1.44
4.2  Breanna Stewart  NYL  .552   23.9   7.5   4.5   1.6   2.5  1.5   1.84
4.0   Sonia Citron    Was  .602   19.7   4.8   2.8   1.5   2.3   .4   1.15

e44    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
4.0   Paige Bueckers  Dal  .550   20.3   4.0   5.2   1.7   2.3   .5   1.37
3.9   Gabby Williams  Sea  .509   14.5   5.1   4.9   2.7   2.2   .6   1.13
3.9   Rhyne Howard    Atl  .499   19.1   4.8   5.4   1.6   1.7   .9   1.41
3.9   Angel Reese     Chi  .525   16.8  14.5   3.8   1.7   4.6   .8   1.50
3.9   Natasha Howard  Ind  .574   18.7  10.5   2.2   1.8   3.0   .9   1.44

3.8   Alanna Smith    Min  .565   15.8   7.3   4.4   1.8   2.2  2.6   1.34
3.8   Tina Charles    Con  .505   20.0   7.7   2.1   1.1   2.5   .6   1.23
3.7   Kayla McBride   Min  .603   21.7   2.7   4.5   1.4   1.9   .1   1.23
3.7   Jonquel Jones   NYL  .616   23.5  11.0   3.9    .6   3.0  1.5   1.82
3.6  Kamilla Cardoso  Chi  .552   18.4  11.4   2.9    .5   3.3  1.4   1.34

Alyssa Thomas averaging 16-9-9 in 32 mpg.
Lynx are 25-5 with Collier and 7-3 without her.

I don't find a list of rookies, but these were drafted this year (or randomly noticed):

Code: Select all

e44    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
4.2   Kiki Iriafen    Was  .545   19.2  12.4   2.2    .9   2.9   .2   1.44
4.0   Sonia Citron    Was  .602   19.7   4.8   2.8   1.5   2.3   .4   1.15
4.0   Paige Bueckers  Dal  .550   20.3   4.0   5.2   1.7   2.3   .5   1.37
2.2   Janelle Salaün  GSV  .515   16.7   6.7   2.0    .9   2.0   .1    .96
2.0 Dominique Malonga Sea  .563   19.3  10.6   1.9    .8   2.6  1.5   1.40

2.0   Aneesah Morrow  Con  .460   12.7  12.5    .9   1.5   2.0   .9   1.08
1.9  Monique A Makani Phx  .548   14.9   3.5   4.7   1.3   2.4   .1    .86
1.8   Saniya Rivers   Con  .491   10.8   3.8   3.4   2.1   2.0  1.3    .67
1.4   Te-Hina PaoPao  Atl  .566   14.2   3.4   5.4    .8   2.1   .4    .79
1.0   Aziaha James    Dal  .457   12.1   5.3   2.8   1.2   1.9   .4    .64

e44    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e402
1.0   JJ Quinerly     Dal  .523   13.3   3.9   4.5   1.8   3.3   .4    .71
.5   Makayla Timpson  Ind  .573   11.8   8.4    .1   1.9   1.2  1.0    .85
.5    Lucy Olsen      Was  .489   10.0   3.0   3.1   1.0   1.4   .3    .39

No others found with >.12 eWins or >.50 eW/402 min.
Mystics' rookies are their #1-2 in minutes, points, eWins and (by a lot) Win Shares
https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/

[Crow]

Wilson and Collier flip #1 and #2. Collier does a few things less or worse late but not scoring efficiency. Wilson improves shooting a bit but also shoots significantly more and rebounds more in August.

Iriafen and Citron were high draft picks with the desired +13 BPM college seasons to stamp them as legit / good picks to me.
But team offense and both faded to monthly worsts and they will miss playoffs. Teammates not good enough. 3rd lowest scoring. Their individual scoring went up in August but team scoring went down. Valiant effort or too selfish? Not apparent to me yet. 3 thru 6 on minutes were 8th, 9th, 12th and 14th on winshares / 40. I now have plenty questions about rookie coach... and whether they tanked out for better draft position. All 4 of those players shot horribly from 3 in August and were under 6 foot. 2 indicators that probably suggest changes.

Overall, first 4 picks of 2025 draft did well then 2 meh at best, 3 horrible (especially Van Lith) and 3 didn't play yet. The meh were over 6-0, the horrible were not. All the horrible shorts had way below league average ts%. Is short a general issue? I don't "know" / suspect but I'd want to know and act accordingly if it is. Did their shooting get better by August? Nope. Worse.

Just 5 decent to good after 1st round. 3 over 6 foot, 2 not. 2 for substantial minutes, 3 not. The best of these was the tallest. Only 1 had a good or better 3ball. Best 2 in this group? Yep, they were +13 or better on BPM in college. Draft or not on that basis more than any subjective traditional scouting, imo.

I don't know the WNBA deeply but have major questions about depth of talent, especially with the rapid planned expansion. Less than 1 drafted rookie per team was even meh, with meh set pretty low.





8 of 10 leading scorers per game are 6-0 or taller. The 2 who are not are over 30 and didn't get elite on ws/40 until mid 20s. 9 of 10 best on efg% are over 6 foot and the exception is 5-11 and 33 years old. Exactly the same with ts% leaders. 8 of top 10 by winshares were 6 footers.


The 3 meh rookies in 2025 draft class were all 6 footers, 2 over +13 BPM, one at +11.6. These criteria don't guarantee success but are pretty good minimum guides.

8 of the 10 weakest rookies were 6 footers but only 4 had +13 or better BPM college seasons. 7 of 10 missed on at least one of these 2 criteria.

[Crow]

68 WNBA players rate at or above .100 winshares / 40. 32 over about .160. Those listed as Guards are represented in the top 32 at about half of a straight proportional share. Forwards and Centers (including F/Cs) are about equally and sognificantly over-represented in the very top. Guards are also mildly over-represented among those in the negative on ws/40.

Guards are moderately overrepresented in total players who have played in league this season. Forwards and centers moderately under-represented.

Players listed as guards must be getting a significant share of the time at “small forward”.


Last regular season, the title winning Liberty listed as guards played 50% of total minutes, almost 67% IF you add 2 G-Fs. The expected proportional guard amount would be 40%.

2024 champion Aces played guards for 50% of total time. 2023 Aces had the same 50% guards.

Dallas Wings went with about 67% guards this season. Chicago Sky 56% guards. Indiana Fever about 53%. Best team this season Lynx at 40% guards.

Position listings may not match reality. But Lynx have the lowest % guards. Wings highest checked. 2024 Liberty ambiguous, mid to high.




2024-25 regular season minutes to LISTED guards for Thunder: 71%.

2023-24 Celtics: 35%.

Just do your own thing, match like or go hard the other way? I wonder if going hard the other way is the right approach. More to research.

[Mike G]

Wilson and Collier flip #1 and #2. Collier does a few things less or worse late but not scoring efficiency. Wilson improves shooting a bit but also shoots significantly more and rebounds more in August.

A'ja Wilson missed a few games, and Napheesa Collier was almost declared MVP.
Then Collier was out for an extended period, while Wilson got her team kicking ass.

Code: Select all

player            min   PER   WS/40  WS   eW82   e484
Napheesa Collier  971   31.2  .324   7.9   6.9   2.65
A'ja Wilson      1122   32.5  .281   7.9   8.1   2.60

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wn ... anced.html

Iriafen and Citron were high draft picks with the desired +13 BPM college seasons to stamp them as legit..

College players have BPM, yet WNBA do not??

...major questions about depth of talent, especially with the rapid planned expansion...

Along with expansion of both regular- and post-season, we may see more fatigue/injury and further dilution of talent.

[Crow]

"College players have BPM, yet WNBA do not??"

Yeah,, that seems odd. Is that a BRef decision or non-action?

Maybe Daniel has the story.

WNBA BPM has been produced elsewhere, by nbacouchside at least in past. Not immediately seeing any current.