NBA win projection related notes for next season

[Crow]

Early lines from sportsbooks:

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/n ... tals-bm23/

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2025/0 ... -nba-team/

Probably will be some surprises.

Lakers and Warriors tied for 5th / 6th seeds? Spurs beating Griz, Mavs and Kings for 8th seed?

[Crow]

I consider the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets the big 3 in west, followed by a next 6. Some in my 2nd tier probably think they are 1st tier. Some outside my second tier probably think they are in it too. Maybe 1-2 of the aspirants of each level make the next tier, maybe not. Find out in about 6 months. Will be hard for 11 or 12 to met or exceed expectations.

[Crow]

How will Nuggets look by mid-November or Jan. 1? Great, very good, good or less? What level of results would be enough for more change? What is the most likely change? PG?

[Crow]

Clippers have 11 vets to work with. Lineup management will be key. If they need something, will they go get it?

[Crow]

Where do Lakers "need" to be by end of year to satisfy media and fans? Will they meet that or be short? I think there is a good chance they will be short of expectations, which may be too high.

[Crow]

What will Grizzlies starting lineup be? Stable or not, used much or not? Was under 250 minutes last season and nothing else much over 1 minute per game. Not much data on new Coach.

[Crow]

I guess things could work for Sixers but I doubt it. If it starts bad, how bad does it get? How much change, how quick?

[Crow]

Knicks hopes depends on Mike Brown, especially related to getting the highly paid long-term starters to play better defense, the potential deployment of Mitchell Robinson with starters and lineup management in general. And if that isn't working adequately, trades.

Brunson - Towns was ok in regular season, though modestly lesser than team average net margin. -3 in playoffs. -5 against Pacers. Brunson Anunoby Towns Robinson was almost +2 in short minutes then. Test it better. Bridges was not an effective 5th in playoffs.

Robinson with rest of starters and instead of Towns was a colossal failure in brief regular season test. All of the other 9 of the 10 most used Robinson lineups were good, mostly great. Only one with Towns though. Test 5-10 and settle for the best after that.

Decide if Robinson is an important or vital part of future or consider trade options.

[Italian Stallion]

Robinson with rest of starters and instead of Towns was a colossal failure in brief regular season test. All of the other 9 of the 10 most used Robinson lineups were good, mostly great. Only one with Towns though. Test 5-10 and settle for the best after that.

I think Robinson with Hart is always going to be a problem on offense because of the spacing. That's two players on the court the defense can sag off and sometimes help off. Plus, with Motch in the middle, it tends to hurt Hart's ability to drive.

[Crow]

Draft Kings has Wizards going from 1 game better than last place to....

1 game better than last place.


Jazz from last place to last place.

Nets down to 2nd to last.

What will their GMs do if it heads that way or goes that way?

What will the owners do?

Which of the 2025 draft picks will be notably better than -3 BPM? How much new improvements within the recent draft classes?

[Crow]

Lakers were on fire with Luka in February but then were barely over .500 in March and April, then fell easily in 1st round.

50 wins but +6 over expected wins to get there.

I am not that fond of their roster and will probably be lower on them for next season.

[Mike G]

Wow, Deandre Ayton is just 27 years old. Is he washed up?
He's been roughly a 3rd scoring option most of his career. In LA he'd be around #4, perhaps more of a comfort zone.
Last year had his highest Blk% and ORb% in 4 yrs, near career avg in most rates; but somehow 4 yrs of mild decline in BPM and PER.

Lakers have a couple of 7-footers listed as F, if b-r.com is to be believed.
One of those, Jaxson Hayes had Feb. BPM = 3.5, March -0.3, April -3.4, playoffs -10.7

[Crow]

Ayton, 2nd lowest ts% of career, 19% 3pt fg%, 67% FT%. Hit 1 3ptr in his last 27 games. OR% at career average, DR% is slightly career low. Career highest TO% but not bad. 2nd lowest usage. Block rate still below 3%. 58% of shots from mid-range.

Defensive efg% is rated better than expected, especially at rim.

Worst BPM, worst offensive BPM, tied for 2nd worst defensive BPM.

15th best on raw on court team +/- and on / off on a meh at best team. Team defense almost 5 pts worse with him compared to without. Negative with all starters by more than team average net margin loss. Positive with a few deep bench.

Ranked 285th on Darko projection, bottom 20% on recent change, bottom third on O-Darko. About career low on Darko, lower than last 5 years. Worst 0-Darko ever til a slight uptick. D-Darko lowest in 5 seasons and declining. Lowest FT rate projection, near lowest at the rim rate expectation.

Negative on 10 of 10 main overall metrics, mostly mildly but below median on all but one. Always negative on offense, slightly positive on 3 of 10 defensive metrics. Peaks were found 4-5 years ago. 116th ranked big man (PF & C) by Crafted PM.

Averages 56 games played for career. 40 last season.

Paid to go away sooner.

[Mike G]

Ayton is a major upgrade at Lakers' C position, which after AD left, faded to nothing.
Playoff distribution of Center minutes, ala b-r.com

Code: Select all

%C    center?  minC   PER   Orb   DRb   Blk    TO     Usg   WS/48   BPM  pt/100  ORt  DRt
.84  Hachimura 153   12.2   2.6  11.8   1.6   10.7   16.8   .060    0.4   21.4   115  120
.65 Vanderbilt  39    8.9   7.9  28.3   1.6   27.9    8.4   .068   -0.7    6.1   103  109
1.0   Hayes     31    6.2  19.2  11.0   3.1   10.1   14.9   .002  -10.7   11.9   102  120
.06   DFS       10    6.9   7.0   7.3   1.1   14.7    9.3   .033   -2.3    9.6   117  123
1.0   Kleber     5   -4.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   34.7   26.9  -.233  -18.6   21.0    75  126
1.0   Len        2   23.2  89.1  28.3   0.0    0.0   11.7   .167   -8.5    0.0   127  116

https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... /2025.html

Minutes-weighted, the position looked like this -- and Ayton's RS rates last year (not quite apples to apples).

Code: Select all

C       PER   ORb   DRb   Blk    TO     Usg   WS/48   BPM  pt/100  ORtg  DRtg
LA'25  10.4   6.5  14.1   1.7   14.0   15.0   .047   -1.8   17.0   110.7 118.4
Ayton  17.7  10.9  26.9   2.9   12.2   19.4   .113   -0.7   23.2   115   112

Ayton has had 2 very good playoff runs and a bad one; overall stronger numbers than his regular season norms.

[Crow]

There are lots of details.

Regular season Hachimura dead even with Ayton on BPM at -0.7. But +5 raw team +/- on court and +6 on / off. +11 with Doncic, very good with Vincent and Reaves. OK with James. Terrible pairs with starters in playoffs though. Look closer at how & why these results occurred.

Playoff BPM history is 1 good, 2 OK, 1 bad.

Will be interesting to see all of Ayron's new numbers and in comparison with alternatives. He should help on rebounding. But in Portland, team rebounding with / without was 5 %pts worse on offensive rebounding (Team relied on him too much? Boxout behavior?), though about as much better on defensive rebounding.

They will need at least 2 at center. Probably a third at times. Construct synergistic lineups and prioritize the best. May be appropriate to slot centers based on matchups, time and game situation, need for and current effectiveness of outside and inside games.

Ayton may help some in comparison if he mainly substitutes for lesser center options rather than Hachimura at Center. Will see how Redick runs it.

Vanderbilt got destroyed in individual matchup stats but team won big with PF and broke slightly positive at center. The team results will matter more with Ayton than the individual data. For Blazers, Ayton won center matchup by 1 pt / 48 min but team lost by -6.5. 250% as much as team average, even more if stated as with vs without.