Teams can be different, but looking at league salaries, a median team next season looks to include a $50 million / yr guy, a $35 mil, a $25 mil, a $15 mil and a $10 mil for top 5. $135 mil for them.
It takes some adjustment but guys "only" making $45-55 million in out years will be attractive relative to those going to $60-80 mil.
The performance impact ÷ pay ratio should be carefully studied, far more prominently noted. Very top pay, better be very top impact.
Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
The average top salary structure for good teams is close to the league median structure noted above, but there are lots of different individual structures.
Further notes: only 3 will have 2 over $50 mil next season. None had success last playoffs. Suns abandoned their big 3. Bucks abandoned duo.
Nobody have more than 4 over $20 mil (unless I forgot a recent signing).
Only 2 have more than 6 over $10 million- Lakers and Spurs.
Sixers, Bucks, Rockets, Warriors and Griz have 4. TWolves 5. Sixers might bump up to 5 if re-sign Grimes.
Further notes: only 3 will have 2 over $50 mil next season. None had success last playoffs. Suns abandoned their big 3. Bucks abandoned duo.
Nobody have more than 4 over $20 mil (unless I forgot a recent signing).
Only 2 have more than 6 over $10 million- Lakers and Spurs.
Sixers, Bucks, Rockets, Warriors and Griz have 4. TWolves 5. Sixers might bump up to 5 if re-sign Grimes.
Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
Looking at Crafted PM by role, starting with "primary ballhandler", there were 12 at or above +3, then 12 more from +1 to +2.9, then 15 more from -1 to almost +1. Then only 8 others down to -3.5.
SGA, Doncic and Tatum lead the first tier, Brunson and Morant start the second tier, Banchero is the last of second tier, Trae Young first of third tier because of vey worst in group Defensive CPM, Schroder last of third tier. Henderson, Collier and Dillingham 2nd to last down to last in group.
I'd want to divide into clusters by pay to understand more about GM behavior.
F Wagner was only rookie contract in first tier. Very highly paid Jaylen Brown near top of third tier. Most in third tier over $25m / yr but a few bargains including Davion Mitchel and Coby White. Q Grimes trying to bust up the payscale. Slightly negative CPM doesn't seem compelling but others got paid big, teams not knowing or not caring about CPM or unable to follow it in negotiations. Fear of losing for nothing probably prompts many overpays.
Caruso is top "Spot-up shooter" as defined and the only one over +3 at +4. Keon Ellis the only other above +2 at +2.2. Just a total of 7 over +1, 22 over -1. Half worse than -1 with Cody Williams the worst in this group at -4.4. Harrison Barnes and Z Williams bigger paid than the other lesser performers. Very few in this group above or even near median pay. Appropriately imo.
Only 28 versatile bigs. The very worst at -1. Jokic, Giannis A. and Wemby lead. Vucevic, J Collins and Portis among the least favorable values in the bottom third of group.
"Connector" group is quite large and diverse.
SGA, Doncic and Tatum lead the first tier, Brunson and Morant start the second tier, Banchero is the last of second tier, Trae Young first of third tier because of vey worst in group Defensive CPM, Schroder last of third tier. Henderson, Collier and Dillingham 2nd to last down to last in group.
I'd want to divide into clusters by pay to understand more about GM behavior.
F Wagner was only rookie contract in first tier. Very highly paid Jaylen Brown near top of third tier. Most in third tier over $25m / yr but a few bargains including Davion Mitchel and Coby White. Q Grimes trying to bust up the payscale. Slightly negative CPM doesn't seem compelling but others got paid big, teams not knowing or not caring about CPM or unable to follow it in negotiations. Fear of losing for nothing probably prompts many overpays.
Caruso is top "Spot-up shooter" as defined and the only one over +3 at +4. Keon Ellis the only other above +2 at +2.2. Just a total of 7 over +1, 22 over -1. Half worse than -1 with Cody Williams the worst in this group at -4.4. Harrison Barnes and Z Williams bigger paid than the other lesser performers. Very few in this group above or even near median pay. Appropriately imo.
Only 28 versatile bigs. The very worst at -1. Jokic, Giannis A. and Wemby lead. Vucevic, J Collins and Portis among the least favorable values in the bottom third of group.
"Connector" group is quite large and diverse.
Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
Conference finalists average factor performance in regular season:
Modestly below average on both kinds of rebounding rates.
Modestly above average on opponent efg% rank.
7.5th on own efg%.
Mostly pretty similar in playoffs. Average rebounding rates. Similar percentile for opponent efg%. But own efg% average falls to just mildly above average.
I'd postulate that T these teams would have has to get hot on own efg% or ts% to beat the Thunder. Probably ant team would, unless maybe really dominant on the boards. Pacers got close but efg% dipped slightly in finals and rebounding was basically a draw not a win.
Cavs had dominant rebounding but bombed on efg% against Knicks. Timberwolves had dominant offensive rebounding but too many turnovers and not enough free throws.
Modestly below average on both kinds of rebounding rates.
Modestly above average on opponent efg% rank.
7.5th on own efg%.
Mostly pretty similar in playoffs. Average rebounding rates. Similar percentile for opponent efg%. But own efg% average falls to just mildly above average.
I'd postulate that T these teams would have has to get hot on own efg% or ts% to beat the Thunder. Probably ant team would, unless maybe really dominant on the boards. Pacers got close but efg% dipped slightly in finals and rebounding was basically a draw not a win.
Cavs had dominant rebounding but bombed on efg% against Knicks. Timberwolves had dominant offensive rebounding but too many turnovers and not enough free throws.
Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
Using 1/3rd win or less as a criteria, 6 teams were bad at home, 10 bad on road last season.
Using 2/3rds win as a criteria, 13 teams were good at home. Using more than a couple wins over .500 as good on road, 8 teams were good on road.
Lakers not quite good enough on road, slightly negative in regular season. Before Doncic and with Doncic. Same for Mavs and Doncic, slightly negative, not good enough.
9 western teams at least .500 against west, 6 clearly below that, down to 16%.
Only one team better than Lakers against west overall was Thunder of course. Clippers and Warriors were mildly positive against west but not enough. Mavs were meh against west with Doncic, bad without.
Using 2/3rds win as a criteria, 13 teams were good at home. Using more than a couple wins over .500 as good on road, 8 teams were good on road.
Lakers not quite good enough on road, slightly negative in regular season. Before Doncic and with Doncic. Same for Mavs and Doncic, slightly negative, not good enough.
9 western teams at least .500 against west, 6 clearly below that, down to 16%.
Only one team better than Lakers against west overall was Thunder of course. Clippers and Warriors were mildly positive against west but not enough. Mavs were meh against west with Doncic, bad without.
Re: Inquiries into stats and comparative detail
Giannis, moderately better A/TO than Sengun in NBA last season. Maybe Sengun catches next season or thereafter.
Similar Ast% / Usage ratios though Sengun a third less on each.
Similar Ast% / Usage ratios though Sengun a third less on each.