VORP/WinShares, MVP, the Hall of Fame

[Mike G]

I went thru the top 100 Win Shares careers and found none that started before the late '70s who were not already in the Hall. In other words, none before the BPM/VORP era. So did the same with VORP and found a total of 54 players, active or retired, not in the Hall; and in the top 100 of one list or the other.

Looking up the b-r.com Hall of Fame Probabilities, I got a much higher correlation with the VORP totals than with Win Shares: Over 60% vs just 30%.
I also found no improvement in correlation by weighting toward the playoff portion of VORP. So these are just RS+PO VORP:

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VORP    player     hof%     RS     PO
193.3   LeBron     1.00   156.6   36.7
110.8   Paul       1.00    98.9   11.9
102.7   Durant     1.00    87.6   15.1
97.1    Harden     1.00    84.3   12.9
87.8    Curry      1.00    74.7   13.1

84.8    Jokic      .996    73.3   11.6
70.4    Giannis    .996    62.4    8.0
65.5    Westbrook  .999    58.4    7.2
63.1    Kawhi      .913    49.9   13.2
60.1    Butler     .730    50.5    9.5

VORP     11-20     hof%     RS     PO
59.2    A Davis    .999    54.2    5.1
58.6    Lillard    .995    54.5    4.1
53.4    Horford    .238    44.2    9.2
51.5    Marion     .756    47.6    3.9
50.4    George     .979    44.1    6.2

48.9    T Porter   .053    43.3    5.5
48.8    Irving     .975    43.7    5.1
48.2    Hornacek   .006    42.1    6.2
47.7    Lowry      .857    43.3    4.3
47.4    Iguodala   .127    41.3    6.1

VORP     21-30     hof%     RS     PO
46.7    Nance      .048    43.5    3.2
46.0    E Jones    .035    42.3    3.6
44.9   'Sheed      .075    38.3    6.6
44.9    Conley     .008    40.7    4.2
43.9    Doncic     .447    38.2    5.7

43.6    Kirilenko  .004    41.7    2.0
42.3    K Johnson  .190    37.3    5.1
42.0    M Jackson  .006    37.5    4.5
42.0    Blaylock   .060    39.2    2.8
41.6    M Gasol    .042    36.5    5.1

VORP     31-40     hof%     RS     PO
41.1    Terry      .005    37.4    3.7
39.9    Ho Grant   .152    33.0    6.9
39.0    D Harper   .001    35.7    3.2
38.9    Brand      .063    37.3    1.6
38.5    K Love     .735    36.3    2.1

38.2   Strickland  .002    36.6    1.6
37.2  Gus Williams .113    31.8    5.4
37.1    Tatum      .596    29.4    7.7
36.8    Ba Davis   .023    33.1    3.8
36.7    Towns      .480    35.4    1.3

VORP     41-50     hof%     RS     PO
36.6    Gobert     .272    34.1    2.5
36.3    H Hawkins  .006    32.6    3.7
36.3    Horry      .034    26.4    9.9
36.2    Draymond   .768    27.6    8.5
36.2    Griffin    .548    32.8    3.3

35.7    Aldridge   .509    33.4    2.3
34.6    Schrempf   .033    32.4    2.2
33.3    Perkins    .000    29.1    4.3
32.7    Laimbeer   .261    29.3    3.5
30.6    DeRozan    .483    29.4    1.2

2699    totals             2377    321

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_c.html
Players 51-54 were far off the VORP pace, having made the list on nice WS totals: Buck Williams, AC Green, Otis Thorpe, and Tyson Chandler -- none with more than 1% HOF chance.

[Mike G]

A list of NBA MVP's in the VORP era.
MVP's in the middle, flanked by their WS rank (L) and (R) their VORP rank that year.
Outside (L) are Best-Of-the-Rest in WS and (R) in VORP. These show either the gap between the MVP and everyone else, or the actual leader, marked by an *.
Double ** represents a player who led in both stats but did not win MVP.

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yr     B-O-R    WS     WS   rk    MVP    rk  VORP  vorp   B-O-R   
74    McAdoo   15.3   18.4   1   Kareem   1   7.5   7.1   Lanier   
75    Kareem   12.9   17.8   1   McAdoo   3   4.7 * 7.6   Kareem  *
76    McAdoo   12.3   17.0   1   Kareem   1   9.0   4.9   McAdoo   
77    Gilmore  12.2   17.8   1   Kareem   1   8.7   5.5   B Jones  
78  * Thompson 12.7 *  8.4  19   Walton   2   4.9 * 6.5   Kareem  *

79 ** Kareem   14.4 * 14.1   2    Moses   5   4.1 * 7.7   Kareem **
80    Erving   12.5   14.8   1   Kareem   1   7.3   6.8   Erving   
81  * Kareem   14.3 * 13.8   2   Erving   1   6.9   6.1   Kareem   
82    Moncrief 13.4   15.4   1    Moses   4   5.5 * 7.0   Magic   *
83    Bird     14.0   15.1   1    Moses   8   4.2 * 7.2   Bird    *

yr     B-O-R    WS     WS   rk    MVP    rk  VORP  vorp   B-O-R
84  * Dantley  14.6 * 13.6   2    Bird    1   7.3   5.6   Magic   
85    Jordan   14.0   15.7   1    Bird    1   8.7   7.4   Jordan   
86    Dantley  12.8   15.8   1    Bird    1   8.4   5.7   Magic   
87 ** Jordan   16.9 * 15.9   2    Magic   3   8.0 *10.6   Jordan **
88    Barkley  16.7   21.2   1   Jordan   1  12.5   8.1   Bird   

89 ** Jordan   19.8 * 16.1   2    Magic   3   8.3 *11.4   Jordan **
90 ** Jordan   19.0 * 16.5   3    Magic   2   8.9 *10.6   Jordan **
91    Robinson 17.0   20.3   1   Jordan   1  10.8   8.2  Robinson 
92    Malone   15.1   17.7   1   Jordan   1   9.2   8.1  Stockton 
93 ** Jordan   17.2 * 14.4   4   Barkley  4   7.1 *10.2   Jordan **

yr     B-O-R    WS     WS   rk    MVP    rk  VORP  vorp   B-O-R
94 ** Robinson 20.0 * 14.3   3  Olajuwon  3   7.3 *11.4 Robinson **
95    Shaq     14.0   17.5   1  Robinson  1   8.7   7.9  Stockton 
96    Robinson 18.3   20.4   1   Jordan   1   9.8   8.3  Robinson 
97 ** Jordan   18.3 * 16.7   2   Malone   3   7.8 * 8.6   Jordan **
98 ** Malone   16.4 * 15.8   2   Jordan   2   7.1 * 7.12  Malone **

99    Shaq      9.0    9.6   1   Malone   1   4.0   3.9   Shaq   
00    Malone   15.3   18.6   1    Shaq    1   9.0   7.3   Payton  
01  * Shaq     14.9 * 11.8  10   Iverson  6   6.1 * 7.2   Carter  *
02    Brand    13.1   17.8   1   Duncan   1   8.0   7.1   Garnett 
03    Nowitzki 16.1   16.5   1   Duncan   4   7.7 * 9.3   McGrady *

yr     B-O-R    WS     WS   rk    MVP    rk  VORP  vorp   B-O-R
04  Stojakovic 13.5   18.3   1   Garnett  1  10.0   7.2 Kirilenko 
05 ** Garnett  16.1 * 10.9  15    Nash   19   4.4 * 9.1  Garnett **
06  * Nowitzki 17.7 * 12.4  10    Nash   17   4.9 * 9.4   LeBron  *
07    LeBron   13.7   16.3   1  Nowitzki  2   7.4 * 8.1   LeBron  *
08  * Paul     17.8 * 13.8   4    Kobe    3   6.3 * 9.8   LeBron  *

09    Paul     18.3   20.3   1   LeBron   1  11.8   9.9   Payton   
10    Durant   16.1   18.5   1   LeBron   1  10.3   7.9   Wade   
11 ** LeBron   15.6 * 13.1   5    Rose    2   6.7 * 7.8   LeBron **
12    Paul     12.7   14.5   1   LeBron   1   7.6   6.1   Paul   
13    Durant   18.9   19.3   1   LeBron   1   9.9   8.9   Durant   

yr     B-O-R    WS     WS   rk    MVP    rk  VORP  vorp   B-O-R
14    LeBron   15.9   19.2   1   Durant   1   9.6   7.9   LeBron   
15 ** Harden   16.4 * 15.7   3    Curry   2   7.9 * 8.1   Harden **
16    Durant   14.5   17.9   1    Curry   1   9.5   7.8   Durant   
17  * Harden   15.0 * 13.1   5  Westbrook 1   9.3   8.0   Harden   
18    Towns    14.0   15.4   1   Harden   3   7.7 * 8.2   LeBron  *

19 ** Harden   15.2 * 14.4   2   Giannis  2   7.4 * 9.3   Harden **
20 ** Harden   13.1 * 11.1   3   Giannis  2   6.6 * 7.3   Harden **
21    Gobert   11.3   15.6   1    Jokic   1   8.8   5.8   Curry   
22    Giannis  12.9   15.2   1    Jokic   1   9.8   7.4   Giannis  
23 ** Jokic    14.9 * 12.3   3   Embiid   3   6.4 * 8.8   Jokic  **

yr     B-O-R    WS     WS   rk    MVP    rk  VORP  vorp   B-O-R
24    Shai     14.6   17.0   1    Jokic   1  10.6   8.0   Doncic   
25    Jokic    16.4   16.7   1    Shai    2   8.9 * 9.8   Jokic   *

Jordan (5x) and Harden (3) are the only multiple ** entries.
The VORP leader has won MVP just over half the time in this interval; the WS leader at 60% (31/52).

[Crow]

Tendency shifted from east to west over period.