2025-26 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Enter to be "officially in", if interested, fwiw.

Don't enter, you might still be tracked or can score yourself.

[DQuinn1575]

I plan to enter as well, so I will track it here if there is no "Official" contest

[Mike G]

A couple of entries by Kevin Pelton: his own plus ESPN BET over/under total.

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west  KPel   EBET     east   KPel   EBET
OKC   59.2   62.5      Cle   50.1   56.5
GSW   56.1   46.5      Orl   49.9   51.5
Den   52.2   53.5      NYK   47.2   53.5
LAC   49.7   47.5      Ind   45.9   38.5
Hou   46.9   53.5      Bos   45.6   40.5
LAL   45.8   48.5      Mil   44.5   42.5
Mem   44.6   40.5      Atl   44.3   46.5
Min   43.7   49.5      Det   42.6   45.5
Dal   43.6   40.5      Tor   40.7   38.5
Sac   43.5   34.5      Mia   40.3   38.5
SAS   40.1   44.5      Phl   38.4   42.5
Por   35.8   33.5      Chi   38.0   31.5
Phx   34.7   31.5      Cha   28.5   26.5
NOP   32.6   30.5      Brk   17.6   20.5
Uta   20.2   18.5      Was   14.2   20.5
avg   43.25  42.37     avg   39.19  39.57

Pelton league avg is 41.2, the other near 41.0
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/465 ... l-30-teams

[Crow]

Average difference of almost 3.5.
50% more difference in west.

Pelton closer to 41 only about half the time.
But only higher than EBET twice when EBET was over 45.

[Mike G]

Every year I neglect or forget to put an age correction in my predictions. We all know that younger players tend to be better this year than they were last year, while older guys are likely to have declined. Right?

I gathered up 10 years of my own non-age-curved team win predictions and how they varied from actual Wins -- correcting for the Covid-shortened seasons (2020 and 2021) and attempted to find a formula that incorporates avg team age and reduces my errors.

After many attempts, it's clear there is a positive correlation with age: Older teams have tended to out-perform expectations, while younger teams have underachieved. Sorting by age and dividing 360 team-seasons into thirds (120 each) the averages are:

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age	pred	actW	err
28.3	46.4	47.4	7.5
26.1	41.4	40.7	8.2
24.4	35.1	34.7	9.0

So I could not have expected lower errors by boosting younger teams' expectations.
Older players should not be getting better -- not even possible? -- but they may be improving their teams beyond what their stats would indicate.
Any other theories?

[DQuinn1575]

Look at your ages - 24, 26, and 28. Most aging curves will have players improving during this whole time period. The teams full of 24 year olds have 3 year guys who may not last longer in the league. The 28 year old teams are (usually) ones with proven players, they aren't going to give too many minutes to older guys if they are a bad team. There are so many guys who never make it to age 28 (calling that peak age) that the league is full of guys who are young, and never hit their NBA peak.

[Crow]

Brief survey of impact by age band.

viewtopic.php?t=10241#p44121

Young guys hurt on average, thru age 28. With exceptions of course.

[Mike G]

Distilling last season's Improved spreadsheet (from 2024 to '25) by players' age, there are interesting trends.
To smooth out the results, I've averaged 3 years centered on a single age cohort: The 20-21 line is an avg of 19-20, 20-21, and 21-22. Showing total minutes (in thousands), eWins per 484 min. (1.00 is avg), and total eWins.

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. ages    1000 x min.     eWin/484        eWins
20  21    24.3   25.5    .85    .90    42.6   47.4
21  22    35.0   37.6    .95   1.04    68.5   81.1
22  23    43.7   46.6    .97   1.03    87.9   99.5
23  24    48.3   52.0    .98   1.04    97.4  111.7
24  25    54.1   53.6   1.01   1.05   112.5  116.1
25  26    49.3   47.4   1.08   1.10   109.6  108.1
26  27    48.8   45.5   1.11   1.10   112.5  103.6
27  28    41.8   40.1   1.11   1.09    96.2   90.3
28  29    40.7   36.9   1.15   1.10    96.5   83.7
29  30    32.9   28.9   1.09   1.08    74.5   64.4
30  31    30.3   25.2   1.07    .98    66.8   51.1
31  32    22.5   17.9    .99    .90    46.0   33.3
32  33    20.3   15.5   1.06    .99    44.3   31.5
33  34    13.1   10.1   1.13   1.14    30.6   23.8
34  35    13.7   11.6   1.15   1.19    32.5   28.5
35  36     8.5    7.3   1.17   1.22    20.4   18.5
36  37     7.6    5.8    .98   1.01    15.3   12.2

Biggest improvement is from age 21 to 22 -- e484 columns -- starting to decline from 26 to 27.
Minutes peak even earlier at 24-25.
Beyond age 33, minutes drop sharply, but remaining proficiency perks back up. Still, total eWins drop steadily from age 25.
Maybe old guys just know how to win the close ones.

note: Only players who played both of the last 2 seasons are in this sample; no rookies of 2025, nor '24 players who did not continue to '25.

[DQuinn1575]

Kevin Pelton's minutes projection for the season. I did use them last year, saved time if nothing else.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

[Mike G]

Thanks man.
I came here to ask if anyone could get this, and end up doing the whole shebang.
Four entries again:

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tm     perW     WS     bpmW    eWin
Atl    43.8    42.2    43.5    43.1
Bos    38.7    47.7    41.8    37.4
Brk    27.1    33.4    28.1    26.8
Cha    31.0    27.5    31.0    32.0
Chi    33.6    38.2    34.8    32.0
Cle    49.7    54.0    52.7    49.6
Dal    53.7    43.6    45.0    50.8
Den    54.8    50.2    50.8    47.0
Det    42.1    43.8    42.8    44.7
GSW    42.1    47.5    48.8    46.1
Hou    45.8    47.4    50.3    46.0
Ind    40.8    42.7    36.5    35.9
LAC    48.8    47.2    48.8    49.7
LAL    47.3    44.2    46.0    46.8
Mem    40.7    46.7    42.7    42.0
Mia    40.0    40.8    39.5    41.3
Mil    38.5    37.9    38.4    42.0
Min    41.3    48.8    47.2    46.0
NOP    34.5    28.5    33.1    32.1
NYK    50.5    47.8    46.7    46.8
OKC    57.7    64.5    64.8    60.3
Orl    48.3    42.9    47.7    55.2
Phl    42.5    31.7    35.3    38.2
Phx    32.2    37.0    34.6    33.5
Por    29.9    37.7    37.5    31.5
Sac    42.4    39.7    39.4    40.3
SAS    49.7    38.5    41.6    45.0
Tor    38.3    32.2    37.9    40.8
Uta    23.0    24.5    23.8    25.4
Was    21.1    21.3    18.8    21.6

Subject to change.
All 4 were too high by 30 to 55 wins, so were scaled down to 1230.
Then they are regressed toward or away from 41 to have 7.0 avg deviation; it just feels about right.

[dtkavana]

I will get the CraftedNBA Projections in here later today. We should attempt to grab BBall Index and DARKO as I remember they wanted to be involved last year but were too late - maybe i'll message them on X. I assume we will use those Pelton ESPN Bet as a stand in for "Vegas"?

[Mike G]

If no objections, I submit a "subjective" prediction slate. It's just eWins rounded up/down plus a few beyond just rounding. Biggest difference is Denver, where their projected 5 thru 8 players -- Cam Johnson, Hardaway, Bruce Brown, and Valanciunas -- are all incoming and likely to out-perform last season via the Jokic Effect.

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west   W      east   W
OKC   61      Orl   53
Den   50      Cle   51
LAC   50      NYK   48
Dal   49      Det   44
Hou   47      Mil   43
Min   47      Atl   42
LAL   46      Mia   41
SAS   46      Tor   40
GSW   46      Bos   38
Mem   42      Ind   37
Sac   41      Phl   37
Phx   33      Chi   34
Por   32      Cha   31
NOP   31      Brk   26
Uta   24      Was   20

Note: If you use these team abbreviations, not case-sensitive, they will be in the same alphabetical order as their full names. It's very nice to be able to order them consistently this way.

[DQuinn1575]

okay, I use the B-Ref abbreviations, but I spelled out the whole team name and hope I remove the confusion we had last year on CHI/Charlotte.
I followed my math, making BOS, MEM, IND higher than the consensus, and low on DET, ORL, NYK.




Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 69
Houston Rockets HOU 58
Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 55
Denver Nuggets DEN 52
Golden State Warriors GSW 51
Boston Celtics BOS 50
Dallas Mavericks DAL 50
Los Angeles Clippers LAC 50
Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 49
Memphis Grizzlies MEM 48
Indiana Pacers IND 47
Atlanta Hawks ATL 46
New York Knicks NYK 43
Orlando Magic ORL 42
Los Angeles Lakers LAL 41
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 40
San Antonio Spurs SAS 40
Phoenix Suns PHO 39
Portland Trail Blazers POR 39
Miami Heat MIA 37
Chicago Bulls CHI 35
Detroit Pistons DET 35
Sacramento Kings SAC 35
New Orleans Pelicans NOP 33
Philadelphia 76ers PHI 33
Toronto Raptors TOR 28
Brooklyn Nets BRK 26
Charlotte Hornets CHO 23
Utah Jazz UTA 21
Washington Wizards WAS 17

[mediocre]

OKC: 63.7
CLE: 57.7
DEN: 53.9
MIN: 51.8
HOU: 51.1
GSW: 50.3
ORL: 49.9
NYK: 49.4
PHI: 47.4
LAC: 46.3
MEM: 46.1
DET: 45.6
ATL: 45.4
POR: 43.4
DAL: 42.7
LAL: 42.5
BOS: 41.5
MIL: 41.5
IND: 39.9
SAS: 39.6
CHI: 36.1
SAC: 33.7
MIA: 33.2
NOP: 32.5
TOR: 31.5
PHX: 27.3
CHA: 26.1
UTA: 23.7
BRK: 18.5
WAS: 17.7

[Mike G]

Some players who got serious run last year and don't seem to appear on any roster yet this year?
With last year's minutes and most recent team:

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min     player ?        tm
2283   Malik Beasley    Det
1925   Keon Johnson     Brk
1349   Trey Lyles       Sac
1250   Ricky Council    Phl
1173   Cody Martin      Phx
1120   Ben Simmons      LAC
993   Brandon Boston    NOP
912   KJ Martin         Uta
863   Alec Burks        Mia
837   Shake Milton      LAL
785   Vasilije Micić    Phx
724 Talen Horton-Tucker Chi