2025-26 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

I followed my math, ...

It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many.

Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand?

[Crow]

I would side with offering / making no adjustments of entries.


Submittal by first tip-off is obviously preferred but requests for "it was hectic / tough for me" slightly late entry by 3pm Eastern Wednesday would not be rejected imo unless there is some major altering event today and advantage gained from it.

Confirmed published by today but late or way late in requesting entry probably slides with an interested request but repetitions of that could / should be avoided. If no request is made, tracking is discretionary and it is subjective whether to consider it "official".

Mike G's additional entry is ok to me, under the circumstances as an addition to straight metrics and because he had a reason and asked.

As to whether to add a different Vegas line beyond EBet, I lean no. One is suggestive / "enough" to me. Generally not looking to add other non entries but let tracker or trackers track as they will.

[kmedved]

I am still cooking the DARKO win projections, but in the meantime, a friend is working on a new modeling system, and wishes to submit projections using it. I am submitting on their behalf. Call it the Walrus model for these purposes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

[Mike G]

Unsolicited but easy to find and a 'regular', the ESPN Experts' averages, and Walrus:

Code: Select all

west  EExp   Walr     east   EExp   Walr
Dal   41.9   39.4      Atl   48.0   42.1
Den   50.3   50.1      Bos   40.1   40.9
GSW   45.5   46.9      Brk   24.7   25.8
Hou   50.1   49.5      Cha   29.6   36.2
LAC   48.3   46.1      Chi   32.7   32.6
LAL   47.6   44.2      Cle   54.9   52.9
Mem   42.3   43.1      Det   43.6   42.8
Min   46.8   45.6      Ind   38.2   38.9
NOP   32.9   34.1      Mia   38.2   37.8
OKC   57.8   66.8      Mil   43.8   43.4
Phx   31.8   31.7      NYK   50.8   52.4
Por   33.9   37.1      Orl   47.9   48.9
Sac   35.1   35.5      Phl   45.9   34.2
SAS   41.8   41.7      Tor   38.2   37.7
Uta   23.6   28.0      Was   23.8   23.7

avg   42.0   42.7      avg   40.0   39.3

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/466 ... -odds-more

[dtkavana]

CraftedNBA (dtkavana) -

Team Wins
Atlanta 46
Boston 42
Brooklyn 25
Charlotte 30
Chicago 34
Cleveland 56
Dallas 42
Denver 48
Detroit 41
Golden State 50
Houston 49
Indiana 36
Clippers 53
Lakers 47
Memphis 43
Miami 36
Milwaukee 42
Minnesota 48
New Orleans 33
New York 49
Oklahoma City 61
Orlando 46
Philadelphia 37
Phoenix 36
Portland 36
Sacramento 37
San Antonio 40
Toronto 37
Utah 26
Washington 23

[DQuinn1575]

I followed my math, ...

It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many.

Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand?

Thanks for checking I copied over the numbers before my rounding

CORRECTED ENTRY


I'll resubmit,
OKC 69
HOU 58
CLE 55
DEN 52
GSW 51
BOS 50
LAC 50
DAL 50
MIN 48
MEM 48
IND 47
ATL 46
NYK 43
ORL 42
LAL 41
MIL 40
SAS 40
POR 39
PHO 39
MIA 36
CHI 35 Chicago
DET 35
SAC 35
PHI 33
NOP 33
TOR 28
BRK 26
CHO 23 Charlotte
UTA 21
WAS 17

[Mike G]

DQ
Somehow I had you with 43 wins for NOP.
Now you are 10 short of 1230.

[DQuinn1575]

I just copied and pasted my numers to Excel and got 1,230, so I'm not sure why you have a different number

OKC 69
HOU 58
CLE 55
DEN 52
GSW 51
BOS 50
LAC 50
DAL 50
MIN 48
MEM 48
IND 47
ATL 46
NYK 43
ORL 42
LAL 41
MIL 40
SAS 40
POR 39
PHO 39
MIA 36
CHI 35 Chicago
DET 35
SAC 35
PHI 33
NOP 33
TOR 28
BRK 26
CHO 23 Charlotte
UTA 21
WAS 17

[kmedved]

The DARKO entry has been added here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 2061110590

[Crow]

Atlanta Hawks 39
Boston Celtics 46
Brooklyn Nets 22
Charlotte Hornets 31
Chicago Bulls 41
Cleveland Cavaliers 52
Dallas Mavericks 46
Denver Nuggets 52
Detroit Pistons 46
Golden State Warriors 51
Houston Rockets 53
Indiana Pacers 41
Los Angeles Clippers 51
Los Angeles Lakers 42
Memphis Grizzlies 39
Miami Heat 29
Milwaukee Bucks 44
Minnesota Timberwolves 48
New Orleans Pelicans 34
New York Knicks 48
Oklahoma City Thunder 64
Orlando Magic 52
Philadelphia 76ers 38
Phoenix Suns 32
Portland Trail Blazers 36
Sacramento Kings 36
San Antonio Spurs 42
Toronto Raptors 35
Utah Jazz 19
Washington Wizards 21
1230

[bbstats]

In my opinion, you shouldn't require forcing to 1230 - that is not guaranteed to improve your error (particularly if you have different variances on each). Also it's up for debate how you'd want to add or subtract the wins (eg multiplier / bias term, both).

Just my 2c - maybe 1230 is some rule I don't know about.

[DQuinn1575]

I do adjust to 1230, but I dont think we should adjust someone else's numbers - I had 1,232 in my numbers, and there is no way for anyone else to tell what 2 wins I wind up deducting to get to the magic number.

[Mike G]

I just enter the predictions into a spreadsheet and notify if the total looks different from the games played (41*30).
Gambling over-unders typically have every team with half a win and no correction for the total. When the difference is significant, say 10 wins high, I have just subtracted 0.33 (10/30)from every team.

It could be that an entrant just made a typo and appreciates the correction.
And yesterday it turns out that DQ's entry had NOP and NYK wins transposed in my table. I blame Excel.

dtkavana sums to 1229

[Mike G]

Feel free to check your numbers and report any discrepancies.
The bottom row is average deviation from 41, and we are in order of boldest to most timid.

Code: Select all

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
Atl    46   45.4   46.5   39   44.3   42.5   48.0   42   46   43.1   43.5   42.2   43.8   42.1
Bos    50   41.5   40.5   46   45.6   46.2   40.1   39   42   37.4   41.8   47.7   38.7   40.9
Brk    26   18.5   20.5   22   17.6   27.5   24.7   25   25   26.8   28.1   33.4   27.1   25.8
Cha    23   26.1   26.5   31   28.5   31.4   29.6   31   30   32.0   31.0   27.5   31.0   36.2
Chi    35   36.1   31.5   41   38.0   34.6   32.7   34   34   32.0   34.8   38.2   33.6   32.6

Cle    55   57.7   56.5   52   50.1   56.9   54.9   52   56   49.6   52.7   54.0   49.7   52.9
Dal    50   42.7   40.5   46   43.6   44.2   41.9   48   42   50.8   45.0   43.6   53.7   39.4
Den    52   53.9   53.5   52   52.2   52.1   50.3   50   48   47.0   50.8   50.2   54.8   50.1
Det    35   45.6   45.5   46   42.6   44.3   43.6   45   41   44.7   42.8   43.8   42.1   42.8
GSW    51   50.3   46.5   51   56.1   44.1   45.5   46   50   46.1   48.8   47.5   42.1   46.9

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
Hou    58   51.1   53.5   53   46.9   52.2   50.1   47   49   46.0   50.3   47.4   45.8   49.5
Ind    47   39.9   38.5   41   45.9   36.2   38.2   38   36   35.9   36.5   42.7   40.8   38.9
LAC    50   46.3   47.5   51   49.7   49.7   48.3   50   53   49.7   48.8   47.2   48.8   46.1
LAL    41   42.5   48.5   42   45.8   38.9   47.6   45   47   46.8   46.0   44.2   47.3   44.2
Mem    48   46.1   40.5   39   44.6   38.2   42.3   42   43   42.0   42.7   46.7   40.7   43.1

Mia    36   33.2   38.5   29   40.3   33.8   38.2   40   36   41.3   39.5   40.8   40.0   37.8
Mil    40   41.5   42.5   44   44.5   41.8   43.8   43   42   42.0   38.4   37.9   38.5   43.4
Min    48   51.8   49.5   48   43.7   44.8   46.8   47   48   46.0   47.2   48.8   41.3   45.6
NOP    33   32.5   30.5   34   32.6   31.8   32.9   31   33   32.1   33.1   28.5   34.5   34.1
NYK    43   49.4   53.5   48   47.2   50.5   50.8   48   49   46.8   46.7   47.8   50.5   52.4

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
OKC    69   63.7   62.5   64   59.2   60.0   57.8   62   61   60.3   64.8   64.5   57.7   66.8
Orl    42   49.9   51.5   52   49.9   50.5   47.9   52   46   55.2   47.7   42.9   48.3   48.9
Phl    33   47.4   42.5   38   38.4   36.5   45.9   37   37   38.2   35.3   31.7   42.5   34.2
Phx    39   27.3   31.5   32   34.7   32.6   31.8   33   36   33.5   34.6   37.0   32.2   31.7
Por    39   43.4   33.5   36   35.8   36.3   33.9   33   36   31.5   37.5   37.7   29.9   37.1

Sac    35   33.7   34.5   36   43.5   34.5   35.1   41   37   40.3   39.4   39.7   42.4   35.5
SAS    40   39.6   44.5   42   40.1   44.7   41.8   46   40   45.0   41.6   38.5   49.7   41.7
Tor    28   31.5   38.5   35   40.7   40.2   38.2   40   37   40.8   37.9   32.2   38.3   37.7
Uta    21   23.7   18.5   19   20.2   27.9   23.6   23   26   25.4   23.8   24.5   23.0   28.0
Was    17   17.7   20.5   21   14.2   25.0   23.8   20   23   21.6   18.8   21.3   21.1   23.7

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
tot  1230   1230   1229  1230  1237   1230   1230  1230 1229  1230   1230   1230   1230   1230
avdev 9.00  8.81   8.67  8.13  7.57   7.36   7.35  7.27  7.17  7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0   6.76

EDIT 10-22 at 7.35 pm to update DRKO column (see kmedved, next post).

[kmedved]

The DARKO entry has been added here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 2061110590

With the understanding that I am late, I have a slight fix to the DARKO projections, discussed (and screenshotted here): https://x.com/kmedved/status/1981131988066070569

With the data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 2061110590

The version posted yesterday was having issues with the IST, necessitating some ugly hacks, and games were only adding up to ~1218. I finally found a fix, which I've implemented here. I promise I haven't incorporated any results from last night's games.