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Mike G
Posts: 6243 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Oct 31, 2025 1:13 am
Projected to the full season, now at 5.5% complete, rookie eWins are projecting to a total of 57.
With no change in their current minutes per game :
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.1 VJ Edgecombe Phl 161 .578 17.3 5.2 4.2 1.7 1.8 .5 1.19
6.5 Dylan Harper SAS 104 .557 20.3 7.4 5.9 1.2 2.6 .0 1.48
6.4 Cedric Coward Mem 122 .800 23.6 5.4 2.3 1.6 1.1 .8 1.54
4.6 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 106 .905 14.5 10.2 .8 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.03
3.8 Kon Knueppel Cha 118 .696 18.1 5.3 1.9 .6 2.5 .0 .76
3.7 Cooper Flagg Dal 161 .496 12.8 6.8 2.7 1.0 2.3 .7 .68
2.9 Sion James Cha 79 .868 15.5 3.9 2.0 1.3 .4 .9 .86
2.5 Tre Johnson Was 107 .578 15.1 4.0 1.9 .3 1.6 1.0 .56
2.4 Jeremiah Fears NOP 104 .546 15.1 2.4 3.1 1.6 3.1 .0 .55
2.0 Derik Queen NOP 85 .500 10.2 8.7 .3 1.1 2.0 1.2 .56
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Will Richard GSW 71 .711 13.2 5.0 2.9 2.4 1.9 .0 .79
1.8 Walter Clayton Uta 78 .536 10.8 6.3 4.4 1.2 3.0 .0 .55
1.2 Collin M-Boyles Tor 62 .593 14.3 3.6 1.2 1.9 1.7 .6 .58
1.1 Egor Demin Brk 82 .625 9.9 7.2 3.1 .9 3.3 .0 .38
0.9 Javon Small Mem 89 .516 9.4 2.7 6.4 .0 2.6 .4 .28
0.3 Hugo González Bos 45 .375 3.3 4.0 .7 3.0 .0 .8 .17
-.1 Ace Bailey Uta 63 .320 4.8 5.1 2.7 .0 1.1 .5 -.04
-.3 Ben Saraf Brk 91 .308 3.3 5.0 4.9 .9 3.3 .0 -.09
-.5 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 41 .429 3.9 4.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.34
-.6 Tyrese Proctor Cle 47 .313 4.0 3.0 1.8 1.3 2.8 .0 -.38
These are all the rookies with >40 minutes total.
30 eWins among West rookies to 27 in the East.
Crow
Posts: 10799 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Fri Oct 31, 2025 2:00 pm
Kalkbrenner and S James are my biggest good draft calls so far.
Mike G
Posts: 6243 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Oct 31, 2025 5:12 pm
I see we both put Charlotte down with 31 wins in the contest. I used Pelton minutes and applied them to 4 different stats.
Hornets are using 4 rookies, all drafted in the top 34. Last night 3 of them started, and they got shellacked.
Here I'm comparing their projected Wins with their predicted wins contributed:
Code: Select all
. Hornets predicted based on draft number current, projected to 82 G
. rookies dr# mpg perW WS bpmW eW mpg perW WS bpmW eW*
K Knueppel 4 26 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.7 29 2.5 1.0 1.1 3.7
L McNeeley 29 7 .8 .8 .7 .7 6 1.2 2.0 1.4 .3
Sion James 33 3 .3 .3 .3 .3 21 4.0 5.3 5.0 3.1
Kalkbrenner 34 17 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 27 6.6 6.5 4.5 4.8
. totals 53 7.7 8.1 7.5 7.2 84 14.3 14.8 12.0 12.0
. rookies min PER WS/48 BPM e484 min PER WS/48 BPM e484
K Knueppel 2128 16.1 .123 0.6 1.08 2378 10.5 .021 -4.1 .76
L McNeeley 608 11.5 .065 -2.2 .56 525 15.8 .190 1.6 .31
Sion James 228 11.3 .063 -2.3 .54 1755 15.9 .149 2.0 .86
Kalkbrenner 1368 11.3 .063 -2.3 .53 2247 18.8 .143 -0.2 1.03
. totals 4332 13.7 .093 -0.9 .81 6904 15.0 .106 -0.8 .84
Minute totals on the left are KPel; on the right, current*82/5
* - eWins rate does not include last night's game: McNeely was great, Kalk good, James meh, Kneup terrible.
Kneuppel largely cancels overachievement by the other 3.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 00CHO.html
Mike G
Posts: 6243 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Nov 08, 2025 7:23 pm
At .107 of the season, rookies project to total 53 eWins.
With at least 90 minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.1 Cedric Coward Mem 265 .688 18.9 7.3 3.0 1.4 1.4 .4 1.36
5.9 VJ Edgecombe Phl 309 .544 14.3 5.6 3.8 1.4 1.8 .2 .90
5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 246 .806 13.0 9.6 .6 1.6 2.4 3.5 1.09
4.4 Cooper Flagg Dal 291 .500 13.6 7.3 2.5 1.3 2.4 .8 .80
4.3 Kon Knueppel Cha 284 .597 16.4 7.1 2.2 .7 2.5 .1 .81
3.8 Dylan Harper SAS 140 .575 19.6 6.1 4.9 .9 2.6 .0 1.30
3.2 Jeremiah Fears NOP 202 .510 15.0 4.2 3.8 1.9 3.1 .0 .75
3.0 Will Richard GSW 136 .745 19.9 5.0 2.7 2.1 1.2 .0 1.29
2.8 Derik Queen NOP 149 .532 11.8 9.6 1.8 2.1 2.6 .9 .88
2.1 Sion James Cha 227 .784 13.2 4.3 1.6 .8 1.2 .5 .49
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.5 Collin M-Boyles Tor 146 .532 11.7 5.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 .7 .55
1.5 Walter Clayton Uta 148 .568 10.2 4.8 5.5 1.2 2.6 .2 .52
1.2 Tre Johnson Was 233 .561 12.4 3.7 1.4 .3 2.0 .9 .26
1.1 Egor Demin Brk 155 .489 6.9 5.5 4.2 1.9 2.6 .4 .36
.3 Nique Clifford Sac 108 .423 4.5 5.9 2.5 .9 .6 1.0 .17
.3 Hugo González Bos 110 .472 5.7 5.6 1.5 1.8 .9 .3 .18
.3 Javon Small Mem 99 .515 8.7 2.5 5.8 .0 2.5 .3 .18
.3 Tyrese Proctor Cle 92 .507 9.7 2.9 2.9 1.3 2.0 .0 .17
-.1 Ace Bailey Uta 166 .414 7.0 5.7 2.3 .6 2.3 .2 -.03
-.1 Ben Saraf Brk 94 .350 4.6 5.0 4.9 .8 3.5 .0 -.08
Mike G
Posts: 6243 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Nov 17, 2025 3:45 pm
1/6 of the season done, and rookies total 52 projected eWins.
Here they are listed by draft pick:
Code: Select all
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 5.3 Cooper Flagg Dal 478 .519 14.4 7.3 2.9 1.4 2.5 .9 .91
2 2.2 Dylan Harper SAS 140 .575 18.8 5.8 4.6 .9 2.6 .0 1.20
3 4.8 VJ Edgecombe Phl 448 .507 12.5 5.8 3.4 1.5 2.0 .4 .75
4 4.8 Kon Knueppel Cha 424 .603 16.6 7.2 2.6 .9 2.8 .3 .87
5 1.1 Ace Bailey Uta 261 .507 10.6 6.0 2.2 1.1 2.4 .3 .31
6 1.0 Tre Johnson Was 327 .536 11.5 4.0 1.4 .5 2.1 .6 .23
7 3.6 Jeremiah Fears NOP 344 .515 15.6 4.3 3.2 2.5 3.5 .1 .81
8 1.6 Egor Demin Brk 246 .528 9.0 5.5 4.6 1.6 2.5 .3 .50
9 1.9 Collin M-Boyles Tor 204 .597 13.5 6.1 1.6 1.4 1.8 .8 .72
10 .0 Khaman Maluach Phx 35 .591 9.8 5.2 .7 .0 4.1 3.3 .06
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11 5.3 Cedric Coward Mem 374 .616 15.9 7.4 3.2 1.2 1.5 .5 1.16
13 3.5 Derik Queen NOP 290 .538 12.4 9.2 3.1 1.3 3.0 1.0 .92
14 -.2 Carter Bryant SAS 54 .378 5.9 4.5 .0 1.1 2.2 .5 -.30
16 -.2 Yang Hansen Por 29 .375 5.4 4.1 .0 .0 3.0 2.0 -.43
17 .2 Joan Beringer Min 30 .800 12.1 7.6 .0 1.0 1.9 .9 .48
18 1.1 Walter Clayton Uta 178 .557 10.2 4.5 5.2 .9 2.7 .5 .45
19 -.2 Nolan Traoré Brk 33 .350 3.6 1.0 3.0 2.1 1.9 .0 -.38
21 .2 Will Riley Was 64 .476 6.4 5.8 2.3 1.0 .9 .0 .23
22 .5 Drake Powell Brk 124 .614 9.6 4.4 2.9 1.7 2.3 .3 .33
23 .9 Asa Newell Atl 80 .644 16.8 6.3 .3 1.4 1.5 1.1 .89
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
24 .1 Nique Clifford Sac 192 .420 5.0 5.3 2.9 .7 1.2 .7 .04
25 -.2 Jase Richardson Orl 30 .250 1.5 1.0 5.0 .0 2.9 .0 -.68
26 -.1 Ben Saraf Brk 97 .371 5.0 5.1 5.1 .8 3.3 .0 -.05
27 .1 Danny Wolf Brk 6 .500 7.3 10.1 7.6 .0 .0 .0 1.17
28 .3 Hugo González Bos 136 .524 6.4 5.3 1.4 2.2 1.4 .5 .20
29 .1 Liam McNeeley Cha 112 .507 7.7 5.0 2.5 .6 1.4 .3 .08
30 .6 YK Niederhauser LAC 22 .792 29.1 8.1 2.2 .0 1.3 1.3 2.12
31 .0 Rasheer Fleming Phx 36 .400 6.0 5.0 1.4 .7 .8 .8 .07
32 .5 Noah Penda Orl 47 .654 10.9 8.3 3.3 .7 1.9 1.3 .81
33 1.1 Sion James Cha 349 .650 9.9 4.3 1.6 1.1 1.2 .4 .23
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
34 5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 318 .819 14.9 10.3 .5 1.5 2.3 3.2 1.22
35 .1 Johni Broome Phl 6 .400 12.5 9.7 3.9 .0 .0 .0 1.16
36 .1 Adou Thiero LAL 5 1.00 34.0 6.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.21
37 .2 Chaz Lanier Det 98 .492 7.7 3.0 2.4 .6 .3 .0 .12
40 -.3 Micah Peavy NOP 94 .292 2.0 6.3 1.5 .3 .6 .3 -.25
41 .1 Koby Brea Phx 4 .667 30.9 0.0 6.0 .0 .0 .0 2.15
42 .3 Maxime Raynaud Sac 74 .473 7.4 9.3 1.2 .8 2.5 .8 .28
43 .0 Jamir Watkins Was 21 .750 7.6 7.6 .0 .0 1.4 1.4 .13
44 -.1 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 96 .467 3.5 7.9 .9 .6 .3 .6 -.05
46 .1 Amari Williams Bos 7 .500 6.9 8.4 3.4 4.2 .0 .0 1.11
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
48 .2 Javon Small Mem 99 .515 8.6 2.4 5.7 .0 2.5 .3 .13
49 .1 Tyrese Proctor Cle 142 .458 9.2 2.7 2.5 .9 1.3 .0 .08
50 .1 Kobe Sanders LAC 69 .510 8.9 4.2 2.6 1.2 2.3 .0 .08
51 .0 Mohamed Diawara NYK 15 .700 13.1 1.8 1.5 .0 1.9 .0 .12
54 -.2 Taelon Peter Ind 87 .392 4.2 4.7 3.4 .9 2.8 .7 -.16
56 2.9 Will Richard GSW 237 .697 18.0 4.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 .1 1.08