2025-26 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

Wizards have won 6% of games so far. BRef is projecting they win 24% of the remainder.

How strong a candidate for worst record in league history?

Of their top 11 players (as of a few days ago), 2 show major improvements: George and Sarr.
Another 3 are pretty stable, and 6 have experienced precipitous declines.
This 3:1 bad:good ratio might be expected to even out somewhat over time.

Their current SRS of -14.7 suggests a win% of about .100, so they should have won 1.6 games out of 16.
And this projects to 8 expected wins on the season, if nobody else steps up.

Thru 13 games, their net player improvement from last year summed to -.38, or about .03 per game.
Add that to their remaining 66 games, and expect another 2 wins. That's if everyone returns to last year's proficiencies.
If it's only the decliners recovering (while current improvers continue), expect 6 more wins, for a total of 14.

They've had the 2nd toughest schedule in the East, and their remaining SOS is about 1 ppg easier. Another couple of W there?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

[Crow]

Wizards up 22 at half tonight.

[Mike G]

EExp take a dive -- error up .22 while avgA sheds .19 and Darko .32

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   6.34   8.41   .49      eWin   7.16   9.08   .41
vegas  6.60   8.16   .55      dtka   7.28   9.02   .42
bpmW   6.75   8.43   .49      WShr   7.45   9.42   .38
avgA   6.76   8.81   .44      Crow   7.49   9.85   .37
knar   6.82   8.50   .47      KPel   7.67   9.85   .37
Mgoo   6.92   8.87   .44      medi   7.72   9.73   .40
perW   7.00   9.83   .33      25pr   8.22   9.87   .33
EExp   7.05   8.53   .47      DQin   8.80  11.24   .28
Walr   7.10   8.55   .47               

Just 3 games last night. Blowouts all : Was>>Atl and Orl>>Phl helped most or all of us; LAL>>LAC not so much.

UPDATE Nov. 29 -- new leader, and on all fronts

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.66   8.24   .56      eWin   7.51   9.24   .42
DRKO   6.69   8.67   .49      dtka   7.60   9.23   .42
bpmW   7.07   8.64   .49      WShr   7.77   9.58   .39
knar   7.16   8.74   .48      KPel   7.79   9.92   .38
avgA   7.17   8.98   .45      Crow   7.82  10.08   .36
Mgoo   7.23   9.04   .45      medi   7.88   9.86   .41
EExp   7.27   8.71   .48      25pr   8.62  10.07   .33
Walr   7.32   8.69   .48      DQin   8.86  11.27   .29
perW   7.40   9.94   .35               	

UPDATE to end the month

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W  Atl   W  Bos   W  Brk   W  Cha   W  Chi   W  Cle   W  Det   W  Ind
46  DQ   50  DQ   33  WS   36  Wa   41  Cr   58  md   53 b-r   47  DQ
46  dt   48  WS   31  kn   34  kn   38  WS   57  DO   46  Cr   46  KP
45  md   46  DO   28  bW   32  eW   38  KP   56  dt   46  md   43  WS
45 b-r   46 b-r   28  DO   31  DO   37 b-r   55  DQ   45  eW   41  Cr
44  kn   46  Cr   27  pW   31  pW   36  kn   54  WS   44  DO   41  pW
44  KP   46  KP   27  eW   31  bW   36  md   53  Wa   44  WS   40  md
44  pW   43  kn   26  DQ   31  Cr   35  DQ   53  bW   43  bW   39  Wa
44  bW   42  dt   26  Wa   31 b-r   35  bW   52  Cr   43  Wa   36  bW
43  eW   42  bW   25  dt   30  dt   35  DO   51  kn   43  KP   36  DO
43  DO   42  md   24 b-r   29  KP   34  dt   50  KP   42  pW   36  dt
42  WS   41  Wa   22  Cr   27  WS   34  pW   50  pW   41  kn   36  eW
42  Wa   39  pW   19  md   26  md   33  Wa   50  eW   41  dt   33  kn
39  Cr   37  eW   18  KP   23  DQ   32  eW   48 b-r   35  DQ   24 b-r
^  Atl   ^  Bos   ^  Brk   ^  Cha   ^  Chi   ^  Cle   ^  Det   ^  Ind
                                             
W  Mia   W  Mil   W  NYK   W  Orl   W  Phl   W  Tor   W  Was      
53 b-r   45  KP   52  Wa   55  eW   47  md   50 b-r   25  DO      
41  eW   44  Cr   52 b-r   52  Cr   43  pW   41  eW   24  Wa      
41  WS   43  Wa   51  DO   52 b-r   42 b-r   41  KP   23  dt      
40  KP   42  eW   50  pW   51  kn   38  KP   40  DO   23  kn      
40  pW   42  dt   49  md   50  DO   38  eW   39  kn   22  eW      
40  bW   42  DO   49  dt   50  md   38  Cr   38  pW   21  WS      
38  Wa   42  md   48  kn   50  KP   37  dt   38  bW   21  pW      
38  kn   40  DQ   48  Cr   49  Wa   37  DO   38  Wa   21  Cr      
36  DQ   39  kn   48  WS   48  pW   35  bW   37  dt   19  bW      
36  dt   38  pW   47  KP   48  bW   34  Wa   35  Cr   18  md      
34  DO   38  bW   47  eW   46  dt   34  kn   32  WS   17  DQ      
33  md   38  WS   47  bW   43  WS   33  DQ   32  md   17 b-r      
29  Cr   36 b-r   43  DQ   42  DQ   32  WS   28  DQ   14  KP      
^  Mia   ^  Mil   ^  NYK   ^  Orl   ^  Phl   ^  Tor   ^  Was      
                                             
W  Dal   W  Den   W  GSW   W  Hou   W  LAC   W  LAL   W  Mem   W  Min
54  pW   55 b-r   56  KP   59 b-r   53  dt   50 b-r   48  DQ   52  md
51  eW   55  pW   51  DQ   58  DQ   51  Cr   47  pW   47  WS   49  WS
50  DQ   54  md   51  Cr   53  Cr   51  kn   47  dt   46  md   48  DQ
46  Cr   52  KP   50  md   52  DO   50  DQ   47  eW   45  KP   48  Cr
45  bW   52  DO   50  dt   51  md   50  eW   46  bW   43  Wa   48  dt
44  DO   52  DQ   49  bW   50  kn   50  KP   46  KP   43  dt   47  bW
44  KP   52  Cr   48  kn   50  bW   50  DO   44  WS   43  bW   47  kn
44  WS   51  bW   47  WS   50  Wa   49  pW   44  Wa   42  eW   46  eW
43  kn   50  WS   47  Wa   49  dt   49  bW   43  md   41  pW   46  Wa
43  md   50  Wa   46  eW   47  WS   47  WS   42  Cr   41  kn   46 b-r
42  dt   48  dt   44  DO   47  KP   46  md   41  DQ   39  Cr   45  DO
39  Wa   47  eW   43 b-r   46  eW   46  Wa   41  kn   38  DO   44  KP
27 b-r   45  kn   42  pW   46  pW   30 b-r   39  DO   36 b-r   41  pW
^  Dal   ^  Den   ^  GSW   ^  Hou   ^  LAC   ^  LAL   ^  Mem   ^  Min
                                             
W  NOP   W  OKC   W  Phx   W  Por   W  Sac   W  SAS   W  Uta      
36  kn   69  DQ   45 b-r   43  md   44  KP   52 b-r   29 b-r      
35  pW   67  Wa   39  DQ   40 b-r   42  pW   50  pW   28  Wa      
34  Wa   65  bW   37  WS   39  DQ   40  eW   45  eW   28  DO      
34  Cr   65  WS   37  kn   38  WS   40  WS   45  DO   26  kn      
33  bW   64  Cr   36  dt   38  bW   39  bW   43  kn   26  dt      
33  DQ   64  md   35  KP   37  Wa   38  kn   42  Cr   25  eW      
33  dt   64 b-r   35  bW   36  DO   37  dt   42  Wa   25  WS      
33  KP   63  kn   33  eW   36  kn   36  Cr   42  bW   24  bW      
33  md   61  dt   33  DO   36  Cr   36  Wa   40  KP   24  md      
32  eW   60  eW   32  pW   36  dt   35  DQ   40  DQ   23  pW      
32  DO   60  DO   32  Cr   36  KP   35  DO   40  dt   21  DQ      
29  WS   59  KP   32  Wa   32  eW   34  md   40  md   20  KP      
22 b-r   58  pW   27  md   30  pW   26 b-r   38  WS   19  Cr      
^  NOP   ^  OKC   ^  Phx   ^  Por   ^  Sac   ^  SAS   ^  Uta      

Last time we saw this chart, just 7 teams were inside the upper and lower bounds of our guesses.
Now there are 13 in contention, and at least one more (Den) on the edge.

[Crow]

I went very low on Heat based on terrible last playoffs and pre-season, some key player trends and trade speculation.

I will be off substantially but the final amount might not as bad as currently projected.

Spo was motivated enough to blow up the offense. I did not see that coming. Does that keep working as well? Time will tell. Herro off to a strong return but long-term questions will remain for me until there is a bigger sample.

[Mike G]

Vegas now leads at any exponent <4.8

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.42   7.94   .59      eWin   7.40   9.14   .44
DRKO   6.66   8.55   .51      dtka   7.40   9.08   .45
bpmW   6.85   8.47   .52      perW   7.42   9.85   .37
knar   6.98   8.68   .50      Crow   7.56   9.82   .40
avgA   7.03   8.79   .48      WShr   7.72   9.37   .42
Mgoo   7.05   8.89   .47      medi   7.73   9.54   .44
Walr   7.14   8.41   .53      KPel   7.86   9.78   .40
EExp   7.21   8.53   .51      25pr   8.60   9.88   .36
.                             DQin   8.71  11.04   .32

Vegas, or EBET, currently has the worst (lowest) guess on Chi and Uta, but with the Bulls fading fast.
Meanwhile best guess (or tied) on NY, Det, LAL (all highest); also Phl and Orl.

[Crow]

BPM among the leaders, by this target so far.

[Crow]

95% win Thunder expected to regress to about 70% for remaining schedule by BRef.

[Mike G]

OKC remaining schedule expects to be tougher than to-date by 4.34 points per opponent.
If they aren't especially motivated to win every game down the stretch, .700 might be pretty close. Or if injury should strike.

vegas is leading by this much:

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top:  6.39  8.10   .56               
.  avg err   rmse   r^2     .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  .00   .00   .00      dtka    .96    .96   .13
DRKO   .24   .40   .07      eWin    .98    .95   .13
bpmW   .42   .36   .06      perW   1.11   1.72   .22
knar   .55   .46   .08      WShr   1.18   1.16   .15
avgA   .59   .69   .10      Crow   1.21   1.82   .19
Mgoo   .63   .78   .11      medi   1.37   1.52   .14
Walr   .73   .36   .07      KPel   1.49   1.80   .19
EExp   .73   .48   .08      25pr   2.06   1.71   .21
.                           DQin   2.25   2.93   .26

[Crow]

On Nov. 9, BRef projected Thunder to win 62% of remaining games. Now 70%. Will likely actually be 80+%. Maybe that projection gets there in a month or two.

[Mike G]

Walrus surges and along with DARKO, bpmW, and DQuinn, having their lowest errors so far.*

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.47   8.00   .57      eWin   7.31   8.88   .45
DRKO   6.52   8.28   .52      perW   7.39   9.64   .37
bpmW   6.71   8.29   .52      dtka   7.45   8.92   .44
Walr   6.97   8.34   .51      WShr   7.48   9.15   .42
avgA   6.97   8.62   .48      Crow   7.75   9.71   .39
Mgoo   7.01   8.71   .47      medi   7.79   9.53   .43
knar   7.04   8.37   .51      KPel   8.02   9.82   .38
EExp   7.21   8.49   .49      25pr   8.36   9.71   .36
.                             DQin   8.49  10.79   .33

* - "so far" = since mid Nov. at least

UPDATE Dec. 5 -- avg errors up .17. Largest to date for EExp, PER, dtka, and KPel

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.57   8.10   .57      eWin   7.54   9.01   .45
DRKO   6.75   8.40   .52      perW   7.56   9.74   .37
bpmW   6.96   8.40   .52      dtka   7.62   9.02   .45
Mgoo   7.17   8.83   .47      WShr   7.71   9.24   .42
Walr   7.20   8.47   .51      Crow   7.89   9.80   .39
avgA   7.21   8.71   .48      medi   7.90   9.55   .44
knar   7.29   8.52   .50      KPel   8.08   9.87   .38
EExp   7.34   8.59   .50      25pr   8.48   9.75   .37
.                             DQin   8.60  10.82   .33

The West>East imbalance is recently kicking in; just two days ago, the West had caught the East in the b-r.com projections; now they are up by 42-40 on avg.
(Last night, Phl over a depleted GSW by 1. Versus 7 wins by West/East, just one at home, in 2 days.)
All entries favored the West by at least this much -- least being DARKO at 42-40 -- and on up to DQuinn at nearly 45-37.
Top-bottom distance is smallest since season low on Nov. 26

UPDATE Dec. 6 -- best numbers to date for Walr; worst for medi and KPel

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.52   7.93   .59      perW   7.39   9.73   .38
DRKO   6.67   8.29   .54      dtka   7.55   9.00   .46
bpmW   6.87   8.37   .53      WShr   7.76   9.14   .44
Walr   6.95   8.32   .54      Crow   7.77   9.66   .41
Mgoo   6.99   8.83   .48      medi   7.97   9.35   .46
EExp   7.13   8.47   .52      KPel   8.19   9.85   .39
avgA   7.15   8.64   .50      25pr   8.42   9.64   .39
knar   7.21   8.50   .52      DQin   8.64  10.72   .35
eWin   7.28   9.04   .45               

Vegas has now matched DARKO's 8-day stretch at #1

[Crow]

After going 13W-6L, Heat have followed up with 1W-4L. They have 5 of next 6 on road and simultaneously 5 of 6 against .500+ teams.

[Mike G]

No change in the standings, but everyone improves by .10 to .23
The top 5 plus eWin and DQin with season low errors.
Here's the over-under ranking by teams:

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over  west   avgA   proj.    over  east   avgA   proj
11.4   Phx   33.9   45.2     12.3   Mia   37.3   49.6
8.5    Hou   49.7   58.2     10.6   Det   42.8   53.4
7.8    SAS   42.5   50.3      9.0   Tor   36.8   45.8
5.6    Uta   24.0   29.6      8.4   Bos   43.1   51.5
4.2    LAL   44.0   48.1      6.3   NYK   48.3   54.6
3.7    Por   36.1   39.8      6.3   Phl   37.2   43.5
2.9    Den   50.6   53.5      3.3   Orl   48.9   52.2
2.6    OKC   62.7   65.3      0.4   Brk   25.7   26.1
0.9    Min   46.7   47.6      0.2   Cha   30.2   30.4
-5.7   GSW   48.3   42.5     -0.7   Atl   43.4   42.7
-6.0   Mem   42.8   36.8     -2.5   Chi   35.4   32.9
-11.5  Sac   38.2   26.6     -4.9   Was   20.5   15.6
-12.7  NOP   32.8   20.1     -6.3   Cle   53.0   46.7
-13.1  Dal   45.6   32.5     -7.1   Mil   41.2   34.1
-19.0  LAC   49.3   30.3    -15.4   Ind   39.3   23.9

Clipps and Bucks in free fall.

[Crow]

73% of teams vary by more than 3 wins from APBR average projection.

53% by more than 6.

[Mike G]

Again no change in the order, but the total avg error is lowest yet.
The same 7 as yesterday, plus WShr, again with their smallest errors.
Vegas just jumped out to the biggest 1-2 lead since DARKO a month ago.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.09   7.62   .62      perW   7.18   9.32   .42
DRKO   6.41   8.06   .56      dtka   7.25   8.66   .49
bpmW   6.56   7.96   .57      WShr   7.43   8.69   .49
Walr   6.59   8.02   .57      Crow   7.56   9.35   .44
Mgoo   6.80   8.43   .52      medi   7.80   9.08   .49
avgA   6.84   8.26   .54      KPel   7.87   9.43   .43
EExp   6.89   8.21   .54      25pr   8.04   9.29   .42
knar   6.90   8.20   .55      DQin   8.27  10.32   .38
eWin   6.97   8.65   .49              		

[kmedved]

Feel free to check your numbers and report any discrepancies.
The bottom row is average deviation from 41, and we are in order of boldest to most timid.

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tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
Atl    46   45.4   46.5   39   44.3   42.5   48.0   42   46   43.1   43.5   42.2   43.8   42.1
Bos    50   41.5   40.5   46   45.6   46.2   40.1   39   42   37.4   41.8   47.7   38.7   40.9
Brk    26   18.5   20.5   22   17.6   27.5   24.7   25   25   26.8   28.1   33.4   27.1   25.8
Cha    23   26.1   26.5   31   28.5   31.4   29.6   31   30   32.0   31.0   27.5   31.0   36.2
Chi    35   36.1   31.5   41   38.0   34.6   32.7   34   34   32.0   34.8   38.2   33.6   32.6

Cle    55   57.7   56.5   52   50.1   56.9   54.9   52   56   49.6   52.7   54.0   49.7   52.9
Dal    50   42.7   40.5   46   43.6   44.2   41.9   48   42   50.8   45.0   43.6   53.7   39.4
Den    52   53.9   53.5   52   52.2   52.1   50.3   50   48   47.0   50.8   50.2   54.8   50.1
Det    35   45.6   45.5   46   42.6   44.3   43.6   45   41   44.7   42.8   43.8   42.1   42.8
GSW    51   50.3   46.5   51   56.1   44.1   45.5   46   50   46.1   48.8   47.5   42.1   46.9

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
Hou    58   51.1   53.5   53   46.9   52.2   50.1   47   49   46.0   50.3   47.4   45.8   49.5
Ind    47   39.9   38.5   41   45.9   36.2   38.2   38   36   35.9   36.5   42.7   40.8   38.9
LAC    50   46.3   47.5   51   49.7   49.7   48.3   50   53   49.7   48.8   47.2   48.8   46.1
LAL    41   42.5   48.5   42   45.8   38.9   47.6   45   47   46.8   46.0   44.2   47.3   44.2
Mem    48   46.1   40.5   39   44.6   38.2   42.3   42   43   42.0   42.7   46.7   40.7   43.1

Mia    36   33.2   38.5   29   40.3   33.8   38.2   40   36   41.3   39.5   40.8   40.0   37.8
Mil    40   41.5   42.5   44   44.5   41.8   43.8   43   42   42.0   38.4   37.9   38.5   43.4
Min    48   51.8   49.5   48   43.7   44.8   46.8   47   48   46.0   47.2   48.8   41.3   45.6
NOP    33   32.5   30.5   34   32.6   31.8   32.9   31   33   32.1   33.1   28.5   34.5   34.1
NYK    43   49.4   53.5   48   47.2   50.5   50.8   48   49   46.8   46.7   47.8   50.5   52.4

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
OKC    69   63.7   62.5   64   59.2   60.0   57.8   62   61   60.3   64.8   64.5   57.7   66.8
Orl    42   49.9   51.5   52   49.9   50.5   47.9   52   46   55.2   47.7   42.9   48.3   48.9
Phl    33   47.4   42.5   38   38.4   36.5   45.9   37   37   38.2   35.3   31.7   42.5   34.2
Phx    39   27.3   31.5   32   34.7   32.6   31.8   33   36   33.5   34.6   37.0   32.2   31.7
Por    39   43.4   33.5   36   35.8   36.3   33.9   33   36   31.5   37.5   37.7   29.9   37.1

Sac    35   33.7   34.5   36   43.5   34.5   35.1   41   37   40.3   39.4   39.7   42.4   35.5
SAS    40   39.6   44.5   42   40.1   44.7   41.8   46   40   45.0   41.6   38.5   49.7   41.7
Tor    28   31.5   38.5   35   40.7   40.2   38.2   40   37   40.8   37.9   32.2   38.3   37.7
Uta    21   23.7   18.5   19   20.2   27.9   23.6   23   26   25.4   23.8   24.5   23.0   28.0
Was    17   17.7   20.5   21   14.2   25.0   23.8   20   23   21.6   18.8   21.3   21.1   23.7

tm    DQin  medi   EBET  Crow  KPel   DRKO   EExp  Mgoo dtka  eWin   bpmW   WShr   perW   Walr
tot  1230   1230   1229  1230  1237   1230   1230  1230 1229  1230   1230   1230   1230   1230
avdev 9.00  8.81   8.67  8.13  7.57   7.36   7.35  7.27  7.17  7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0   6.76

EDIT 10-22 at 7.35 pm to update DRKO column (see kmedved, next post).

It looks like this accidentally flipped the Charlotte and Chicago numbers for the Walrus Projections (they had Chicago at 36.17 and Charlotte at 32.55).