Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

Coach D used 18 lineups yesterday. 9 brand new against Spurs. 6 positive, 12 negative. 3 biggest lineups went +7 and got 19 minutes. Everything else went -22 in 29 minutes. Could have changed the proportions but Daigneault was committed to 'throwing different stuff at them'. Again.

52 lineups against Spurs in 3 games. 19 positive, 33 negative. Just 2 in all games, both negative, one super horrendous. 1 of 6 most used positive, 3 terrible.

[Crow]

Lineup performance with combos of 5 main guys:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2004 ... 85459?s=20

[Crow]

There are at least 20-25 with and without combinations of main players (not necesaarily a full lineup) that have gotten 50+ minutes and should have priority for more testing to inform playoff management.

Most everything else seems secondary or needs a case to be made to join the priority list.

[Crow]

Jazz 9th lowest win % before tonight. Hard to say if Thunder end up with that pick. Jazz probably could keep if they acted accordingly but hard to say what they will do later.

[Crow]

Before tonight's loss, the Thunder were 6-5 in last 11 games. The 7 most used lineups were on average +17pts / 100p. The other 122 were just +3.4.

Obviously the results varied between games.

But the top 7 lineups were 5 times as good as the rest played with.

Mo concentration, probably mo victories.

Worst big minute pairs during the stretch are: SGA-Joe, Caruso-Dort, Caruso-Joe, Joe-Holmgren, Dort-Joe, Caruso-Wiggins and Joe-Wallace. Lot of Joe and Caruso.

[Crow]

Roster imbalance still bugs me some.

Not a fan of Youngblood at 18th man. Beginning to question Barnhizer as 17th and especially the combination instead of at least one forward. Maybe there is something there with him but his raw +/- is by far worst on team, far worse than Youngblood. -18 on court, -34 on / off. 80% of games with negative +/-. Better change in long-run is he stays.

[Crow]

Thunder 3pt fg% so far in January below 34% and going lower after terrible shooting tonight. Opponent 3pt was near 40%. Jazz will pull that down a liitle.

[Mike G]

And Joe was their best 3pt shooter at 33%

[Crow]

Joe,,hot to very hot in previous months but very cold in January so far.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... lits//2026

Steady at about 41% for 4 years though at season level.

I am more concerned for most others.


Team as whole just 15th on 3pt fg%. A pretty common issue for team thru long-term history and commonly pointed out, especially before 2022-23. 6th best last season. 1st before that; but for last 4 seasons it is 2 great, 2 average. Is average 3pt shooting enough to win title? Should check.

Thunder 3pt fg% under 34% last playoffs. 34.5% in finals. Average of almost 36% for prior 5 titlewinners. Only Bucks were lower, at 32%. Two tied at top at 37.5%. Good but not freakish. Playoff average is a bit above 35.5%.

[Crow]

In first 25 games of season, Thunder went 24-1. They used 260 lineups and slightly more than 50% were positive.

In last 22 games, they used almost 260 lineups. Slightly less than 50% were positive.

It appears that only about 60 of the lineups in first period were used in second period.

Total lineups have reached 460. About 10 brand new lineups every game. Because of injuries but also because of willful chaos.

Just 2 lineups used / tested over 50 minutes. None anywhere close to 200 minutes, as the top 2 are barely over 100 minutes. Just 10 over 25 minutes. So almost 98% of lineups are super-dinks (less than 0.5 minutes per game for season).

[Crow]

Cason Wallace averaging -2 raw team +/- on court the last 10 games. Way below any other regular.

[Crow]

I'd make a consolidation trade for a forward or center.