Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

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Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Every month a less good w-l record. February has worst offense yet. Most 3s made per game but also most turnovers and worst FT%. Most offensive rebounds but least stocks. Defensive rating has been steady for 3 months. Opponents with least turnovers and most stocks. Least FTAs and worst FT%. Most FGM.

-3 actual wins compared to net margin expected.
Crow
Posts: 11259
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

21 lineups last night. 10 of the 13 smallest negative with one neutral. 4 of biggest 8 positive. Too much experimentation imo, not near enough winning time. 15 never before used lineups. Could have been 5 or 8 new and 15 or less lineups. But Daigneault loves to play around.
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Dort has a -2 BPM and a -3 raw on / off. Shooting efficiency is least good in 3 seasons. Short mid-tange is horrible, longer mid-range is great.

Darko has him as 127th best. Top 40% on offensive, top 15% on defense. But bottom 20% on recent change. Peak to date overall and on defense came at beginning of season. Offensive peak was 2.5 years ago.

Pay to stay, at what price, or not?
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

$50 million over the the Thunder picked up all team options for next season, they'd be $50 million over the tax level and close to $30 million over the 2nd apron. They'd owe over $200 million in tax.

I expect changes but don't know how many or which. Dort and Hartenstein are the biggest pieces but others could be released or traded.
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Bill Duffy representation of Jalen Williams and Holmgren could be a concern in longer term. Also represents Doncic and several other Lakers.
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

5 possible 1st round opponents. Doubt Thunder will maneuver for or against but will they?
Crow
Posts: 11259
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder depth is both a game & season management strategy and an emerging salary cap strategy. Still need to see what Prest does this off-season and next to understand the design. Lots of options is part of the design and part of the mystery.
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Lineups total reaches 672.

Arguments for this include keeping guys ready and reasonably content and making them think.

Arguments against include 2nd lowest concentration / testing on 5 most used lineups among top 10 contenders. almost 10 new lineups every game and an average lineup usage of barely 5 minutes for the season.

Could do all of the first group of positives in a different way with far far fewer lineups.
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Minutes distribution and size analysis:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2037 ... 48724?s=20
Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

If the draft follows consensus, the Thunder should have a variety of good or even great options, imo.
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