Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

Proposed Spurs specific lineup set:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2055 ... 18874?s=20

[Crow]

SGA xrapm pair estimates, Holmgren 3rd best partner. All the rest of top 5 are with bench players. JDub and Hartenstein are lowest.

[Crow]

No lineup used in fully 20% of regular season games. None tested over 200 minutes. Only 3 of 755 over 55 minutes.

Playoffs lineup management without aid of significant full lineup testing.

None of 3 most used overall lineups were 3 most used against Spurs. The ones chosen were 2 meh, 1 bad.

[Crow]

The Thunder not only have most salary on books including options for next season, they lead in potential commitments for 5 years. In 2029-30, only 2 teams are within $100 million and in 2020-21 no one is within $130 million. Pre-tax.

[Crow]

Daigneault averaging 13 new playoff lineups per game before tonight, in addition to however many repeats.

[Crow]

Game 1 Spurs:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2056 ... 11965?s=20


After using 28 lineups in Game 1, Daigneault used 25 in Game 2. 23 not used in game 1.

4 of 6 most used negative including the starters.

[Crow]

Game 3, 30 lineups used More than half brand new for series.

Stubborn, awful starters were -155pts / 100p to begin the game. Third negative, 2nd massive small minute disaster.

Overcame all this, but... very troubling imo.

[Crow]

Only 2 Thunder starters have positive Dean Oliver individual net ratings in Spurs series.

Holmgren's usage is down more than 1/3rd from regular season. His scoring is down 40% from Lakers series. Rebounding down 50%. Blocks down about 59%. Steals down 80%. Efg% down 12 %pts.

For all the praise, McCain has really lousy shooting efficiency from 3 in the series (27%) and weak overall shooting / scoring efficiency. Needed apparently but not that good. Usage up 25% over regular season. SGA might be a little annoyed. One game comment was documented.

Last night and all series, the bench was the strength, especially Caruso, Wallace and Jaylin Williams.

Turnovers forced and suppressed are the main factor wins. Small edge on efg%. Losing offensive rebounding badly and ft rate as well.

[Crow]

Shai with a 5 to 1 A/TO in Spurs series. But 3 starters with weak to horrendous TO%. Everybody else great.

[Crow]

6-7 for sure keepers for next season. Keep an open mind about the rest depending on opportunities.

I expect low turnover but I would probably actively consider more.

[Crow]

Thunder have now used more lineups so far than in full last playoffs for them or anybody else.

173 overall, 113 so far against Spurs. 45% more than Spurs have used against them.

[Crow]

Lineups in this playoffs:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2060 ... 85732?s=20

Lineups next season?

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2060 ... 22992?s=20

[Crow]

179 lineups used in playoffs. 119 against Spurs.

Average use per lineup in playoffs? 5 minutes. Average use against Spurs? 2.9 minutes.

[Crow]

Thunder won just one of the factor comparisons for the Spur series. TO% and just by 1.3% per 100 possessions. Won that in first 3 games and not after (1 tie, 3 lossses).

At game level they lost 68% of the factor comparisons. At net points level, they lost by 3.7 points per game.

The ambush / rattling of Castle occurred in first 2 games and the last one. Without that, they lose TO% pretty badly. Including regular season, Castle had 5+ turnovers against Thunder 4 times, 4 or less 8 times.