2026 Playoff Summaries
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
I think the primary reason is that in the playoffs the opponents spend a lot of time crafting custom game plans to take away the opponent's top players and preferred actions. In almost all cases this involves the other team's MVP candidate being significantly limited on offense by the defensive game plan and forcing the remaining players on their team to take on a greater role or greater responsibility than in the regular season.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Those can all be factors, and offsetting those are perhaps better refereeing (or more protective of stars), better teammates (thus Less pressure), no back-to-backs.
Last year's playoffs did not show this RS-to-PO statistical collapse. There were 12 who received mvp votes, and their RS stats held very well thru the postseason.
The minutes-weighted PO BPM is still 7.2
I suspect the 2025 results are more typical. Scoring is way down from the RS, and it's largely due to elite players not measuring up.
Others not included in the 2026 sample come to mind: Reaves, Edwards, Randle, Maxey, Booker, Avdija, Clingan, Nickeil, A Gordon, D White, Ingram ... with major dropoffs across the board.
These summary stats bring the whole field up to average: poor shooting and turnovers are attributed to stronger defense.
Last year's playoffs did not show this RS-to-PO statistical collapse. There were 12 who received mvp votes, and their RS stats held very well thru the postseason.
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'25 PER WS/48 BPM
RS 23.7 .190 6.3
PO 23.5 .177 7.2
'26 PER WS/48 BPM
RS 25.0 .221 6.9
PO 19.9 .131 3.2
I suspect the 2025 results are more typical. Scoring is way down from the RS, and it's largely due to elite players not measuring up.
Others not included in the 2026 sample come to mind: Reaves, Edwards, Randle, Maxey, Booker, Avdija, Clingan, Nickeil, A Gordon, D White, Ingram ... with major dropoffs across the board.
These summary stats bring the whole field up to average: poor shooting and turnovers are attributed to stronger defense.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
A wee bit late: Leaders thru 2 rounds.
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xyzW xyz/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 pWin WS bWin eWin
1.82 .182 Karl-A Towns NYK 285 30.4 .393 14.4 3.03 1.63 2.24 1.72 1.80
1.80 .129 Evan Mobley Cle 494 20.7 .189 6.6 1.79 1.66 1.86 1.80 1.85
1.64 .117 Cade Cunningham Det 572 18.2 .098 3.4 1.71 1.58 1.12 1.52 2.04
1.54 .154 Vi. Wembanyama SAS 288 27.9 .275 9.3 3.00 1.47 1.58 1.29 1.80
1.39 .139 Jalen Brunson NYK 347 23.9 .253 4.5 2.12 1.44 1.75 1.04 1.53
1.37 .171 OG Anunoby NYK 282 25.9 .331 10.0 2.03 1.30 1.86 1.32 1.19
1.35 .096 Jarrett Allen Cle 403 21.3 .199 4.1 1.63 1.42 1.60 1.16 1.37
1.32 .094 Do. Mitchell Cle 503 18.4 .110 1.2 1.63 1.42 1.10 1.00 1.70
1.28 .159 Shai G-A OKC 279 28.0 .280 6.2 2.32 1.43 1.56 .98 1.35
1.26 .090 James Harden Cle 524 16.5 .095 2.2 1.34 1.23 .99 1.20 1.46
xyzW xyz/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 pWin WS bWin eWin
1.25 .089 Tobias Harris Det 485 16.5 .134 2.1 1.43 1.14 1.30 1.09 1.44
1.18 .084 Ausar Thompson Det 427 16.4 .138 5.3 1.20 1.00 1.18 1.38 1.07
1.15 .104 Stephon Castle SAS 350 19.5 .201 3.1 1.79 1.08 1.40 .90 1.31
1.11 .111 LeBron James LAL 384 18.7 .088 3.0 1.84 1.11 .67 .97 1.47
1.10 .100 Tyrese Maxey Phl 437 18.5 .069 2.8 1.41 1.24 .60 1.08 1.28
1.09 .137 Chet Holmgren OKC 251 25.9 .274 6.2 2.16 1.16 1.37 .88 1.13
1.08 .154 Scottie Barnes Tor 273 22.8 .174 8.1 1.97 1.06 .95 1.12 1.12
1.00 .167 Jayson Tatum Bos 218 23.9 .212 8.9 2.54 .90 .92 .95 1.15
.98 .089 De'Aaron Fox SAS 366 17.0 .159 1.5 1.51 .91 1.16 .76 1.15
.97 .138 Paolo Banchero Orl 273 20.0 .108 6.5 2.08 .87 .59 .98 1.18
xyzW xyz/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 pWin WS bWin eWin
.96 .159 Nikola Jokić Den 237 22.7 .133 8.0 2.29 .91 .63 .96 1.13
.93 .085 Jul. Champagnie SAS 310 16.4 .229 5.7 1.06 .72 1.42 1.04 .68
.89 .089 Rui Hachimura LAL 386 15.6 .134 3.6 .85 .83 1.03 1.05 .69
.88 .080 Dylan Harper SAS 277 19.9 .227 4.0 1.37 .88 1.26 .79 .79
.87 .109 Ajay Mitchell OKC 238 23.0 .234 3.9 1.86 .93 1.11 .67 .92
.87 .124 Joel Embiid Phl 233 23.7 .116 6.0 2.15 .95 .54 .80 1.05
.87 .087 Ayo Dosunmu Min 292 17.9 .146 5.4 1.35 .79 .85 .95 .82
.83 .064 Duncan Robinson Det 383 13.3 .139 3.9 .74 .61 1.06 1.08 .59
.76 .096 Is. Hartenstein OKC 204 22.8 .273 4.5 1.72 .79 1.11 .61 .73
.76 .076 Mikal Bridges NYK 292 16.7 .209 2.8 .97 .70 1.22 .72 .59
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.
A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
I've experimented with that, and in this rendition "wins" still add up to # of games played. The BPM component gives a bonus for opponent strength, while PER punishes team defense (relative to offense) and WS over-rewards winning margin. All occasionally get it 'right'.
Per game is included for the curious.A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
Quality matters more when it's sustained. Last year, Giannis had far and away the best PO rates, but for only 5 games. No one remembers or cares; and winning does matter.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
MVP vs wannaVP
Thru 5 games of the WCF
Shai looks like a model of consistency, while Wemby may take 20 shots or 4 shots, get 20 rebounds or 4 rebounds.
Here are their regular season and playoff averages and their average deviations (from their averages) in each interval.
Wemby's playoff avedev omits his two 12-minute games (concussion and ejection) which were distinctly his 2 worst so far.
** - includes those 2 "games".
D-Rating is largely a Team measure, so Shai works with a consistent system, while SAS defense = Wemby defense, in large part.
In RS, Wemby's BPM variance was 23% bigger than Shai's. In PO almost twice as much.
Thru 5 games of the WCF
Shai looks like a model of consistency, while Wemby may take 20 shots or 4 shots, get 20 rebounds or 4 rebounds.
Here are their regular season and playoff averages and their average deviations (from their averages) in each interval.
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Wemby USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM Shai USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM
RS 32.4 122 100 22.4 10.7 RS 33.5 134 108 26.4 11.7
avedev 5.2 17.1 11.0 7.4 7.9 avedev 3.7 18.6 8.9 5.9 6.4
Wemby USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM Shai USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM
PO 27.6 121 99 21.0 9.9 PO 32.0 125 114 22.3 6.3
avedev 4.8 15.1 13.9 6.2 6.4 avedev 3.0 15.6 7.7 5.6 3.5
all ** 4.7 18.2 14.4 8.2 8.3 ** - includes those 2 "games".
D-Rating is largely a Team measure, so Shai works with a consistent system, while SAS defense = Wemby defense, in large part.
In RS, Wemby's BPM variance was 23% bigger than Shai's. In PO almost twice as much.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Thru the conference finals, leaders in "wins" -- the avg of wins according to 4 different stats.
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wins W/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 perW WShr bpmW eWin
2.9 .18 Vi. Wembanyama SAS 552 27.6 .265 9.7 2.86 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.3
2.4 .17 Karl-A Towns NYK 423 27.2 .346 11.9 2.68 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.4
2.2 .15 Shai G-A OKC 544 24.9 .211 6.4 2.14 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.4
2.0 .11 Evan Mobley Cle 640 19.3 .142 5.4 1.62 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.2
1.9 .14 Jalen Brunson NYK 506 22.7 .241 3.9 2.00 2.0 2.4 1.4 2.1
1.9 .16 OG Anunoby NYK 406 24.5 .325 9.1 1.94 1.8 2.6 1.8 1.6
1.8 .10 Stephon Castle SAS 602 18.2 .166 2.7 1.56 1.7 2.0 1.4 2.0
1.7 .09 Do. Mitchell Cle 652 18.5 .090 2.0 1.59 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.2
1.6 .12 C Cunningham Det 572 18.2 .098 3.4 1.71 1.6 1.1 1.5 2.0
1.6 .09 Jarrett Allen Cle 529 20.6 .179 3.7 1.47 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.6
wins W/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 perW WShr bpmW eWin
1.4 .09 Chet Holmgren OKC 459 20.4 .191 3.0 1.52 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.4
1.4 .08 J Champagnie SAS 547 14.6 .179 4.4 .90 1.1 2.0 1.6 1.0
1.4 .08 Dylan Harper SAS 460 18.6 .191 3.6 1.32 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.3
1.3 .07 James Harden Cle 672 14.7 .050 0.8 1.13 1.3 .7 1.2 1.6
1.3 .07 Devin Vassell SAS 609 13.2 .129 2.6 .85 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.1
1.3 .08 De'Aaron Fox SAS 521 15.9 .130 1.2 1.40 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.5
1.2 .08 Ausar Thompson Det 427 16.4 .138 5.3 1.20 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.1
1.1 .08 Tobias Harris Det 485 16.5 .134 2.1 1.43 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3
1.1 .08 Josh Hart NYK 462 14.3 .147 2.1 1.26 .9 1.4 1.0 1.2
1.1 .07 Cason Wallace OKC 374 17.6 .185 7.3 .93 1.0 1.4 1.4 .7
wins W/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 perW WShr bpmW eWin
1.1 .11 LeBron James LAL 384 18.7 .088 3.0 1.84 1.1 .7 1.0 1.5
1.1 .10 Tyrese Maxey Phl 437 18.5 .069 2.8 1.41 1.3 .6 1.1 1.3
1.1 .15 Scottie Barnes Tor 273 22.8 .174 8.1 1.97 1.1 .9 1.1 1.1
1.1 .07 I Hartenstein OKC 350 20.0 .197 2.9 1.51 1.2 1.4 .9 1.1
1.1 .08 Mikal Bridges NYK 444 16.8 .202 2.9 1.02 1.0 1.6 1.0 .9
1.0 .17 Jayson Tatum Bos 218 23.9 .212 8.9 2.54 .9 .9 .9 1.2
1.0 .07 Alex Caruso OKC 353 17.6 .168 5.4 1.00 1.0 1.2 1.1 .7
1.0 .14 Paolo Banchero Orl 273 20.0 .108 6.5 2.08 .9 .6 1.0 1.2
1.0 .16 Nikola Jokić Den 237 22.7 .133 8.0 2.29 .9 .6 .9 1.1
.89 .09 Rui Hachimura LAL 386 15.6 .134 3.6 .85 .9 1.0 1.0 .7
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Team total stats thru 3 rounds, and correlations to minutes per game. Separated by playoff depth reached.
* - "minutes" here are the sum of player mpg, whether they appeared in all games or just one. The further from 240 they are, the more uncertain the stats shown. Correlations are for players 1-10 in mpg, with more weight on 1 thru 7 and least on player #10.
Averages for each level:Teams that overachieved in early rounds get thrashed later and end up as below-avg playoff teams.
The Cavs had the highest correlations between minutes and stats. Perhaps they just stuck with what had been working, or they didn't have many options.
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1st min* PER WS/48 BPM e480 corr avg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Hou 290 13.3 .070 -0.93 .86 .62 .69 .39 .62 .80
Orl 271 13.1 .071 1.30 .89 .55 .56 .32 .65 .68
Atl 260 12.6 -.006 -0.93 .61 .44 .54 .21 .43 .59
Bos 256 15.1 .118 1.79 1.09 .30 .37 -.03 .39 .48
Den 277 13.4 .069 0.53 .83 .28 .45 -.14 .25 .57
Phx 256 12.8 -.012 -0.88 .62 .28 .34 .03 .09 .65
Tor 257 14.5 .079 0.71 .92 .14 .15 -.08 .25 .25
Por 245 12.4 .028 0.00 .68 -.15 -.16 -.22 -.12 -.10
2nd min PER WS/48 BPM e480 avg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Det 269 14.8 .114 1.96 1.01 .64 .85 .29 .47 .94
LAL 273 13.5 .066 -0.20 .87 .54 .57 .17 .78 .65
Phl 268 14.2 .042 0.28 .83 .40 .50 .03 .51 .57
Min 290 13.7 .071 1.30 .91 -.31 -.23 -.47 -.45 -.10
3rd min PER WS/48 BPM e480 avg PER WS/48 BPM e480
Cle 260 14.0 .078 0.77 .88 .69 .79 .38 .71 .87
NYK 265 18.6 .217 3.44 1.40 .56 .54 .46 .61 .64
OKC 270 17.6 .146 3.07 1.38 .53 .60 .55 .35 .64
SAS 273 16.9 .164 3.25 1.32 .47 .42 .36 .54 .55
Averages for each level:
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tm min PER WS/48 BPM e480 corr avg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1st 264 13.4 .052 0.20 .81 .31 .37 .06 .32 .49
2nd 275 14.1 .073 0.83 .90 .32 .42 .01 .33 .52
3rd 269 16.8 .151 2.63 1.24 .52 .52 .46 .50 .61
tot 268 15.0 .101 1.42 1.02 .38 .44 .15 .38 .54
The Cavs had the highest correlations between minutes and stats. Perhaps they just stuck with what had been working, or they didn't have many options.