2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 1

[Mike G]

Previews and predictions.

First round matchups, in no particular order.
Trying out a new presentation here. Players' minutes are guessed at. Ranked by their eWins expected in 7 games.
Per36 rates are relative to 100 pts and 44 reb per team, per game.
Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA)

Nuggets vs Thunder
Denver is really deep, but they don't have anyone resembling a Star.
This minutes-distribution gives Okl 3.65 eWins and Denver 3.35, in 7 games: Translates as (expected wins) Okl 3.8 and Den 3.2, or 4-3.
In 6 games, Okl should have 3.26 wins; so it's almost as likely Okl wins 4-2; and home court advantage is not included.

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3.65     3.79         Okl  240                           
3.35     3.20         Den  240  
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.18  Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .576   28.4   7.0   2.7   1.9   1.1   2.7   .9  2.13
1.11 Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .526   23.9   5.4   9.3   2.7   2.0   4.2   .4  2.22
.70   Hilario,Nene    Den   32   .638   19.9   9.9   2.7   3.9   1.4   2.2  1.1  1.67
.44   Lawson,Ty       Den   28   .583   16.2   3.7   6.8   2.2   1.3   2.3   .1  1.23
.44   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   30   .570   13.9  10.9    .4   4.3    .5   1.2  3.1  1.15

.42  Gallinari,Danilo Den   28   .567   18.2   6.9   2.0   2.3   1.1   2.2   .7  1.17
.41   Martin,Kenyon   Den   28   .520   12.5   9.7   3.7   4.2   1.3   1.8  1.0  1.14
.36   Felton,Raymond  Den   30   .515   11.8   4.0   7.5   1.9   1.4   2.3   .0   .96
.33   Smith,J.R.      Den   24   .542   16.3   5.7   3.2   2.9   1.5   1.7   .2  1.08
.30   Harden,James    Okl   26   .583   16.4   4.2   2.8   3.1   1.4   1.6   .4   .91

.29   Chandler,Wilson Den   28   .500   14.6   6.5   2.2   2.8    .8   2.2  1.3   .82
.19  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   28   .500    7.6  13.0   1.5   4.8    .6   2.8  1.4   .56
.18   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   16   .577   14.0   9.9    .5   5.0   1.3   1.5   .8   .90
.16   Andersen,Chris  Den   14   .611   11.4   9.8    .9   3.4   1.0   1.1  2.2   .91
.13   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   24   .538    7.7   7.0   2.2   3.2   1.8   1.0   .7   .46

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.10   Afflalo,Arron   Den   10   .612   15.1   4.3   2.9   2.5    .6   1.1   .5   .80
.09   Harrington,Al   Den   10   .521   14.6   6.8   2.1   3.9    .8   2.1   .2   .73
.05   Maynor,Eric     Okl   10   .480    8.5   3.3   6.5   2.4    .9   2.0   .1   .46
.04   Cook,Daequan    Okl    8   .626   13.7   3.9   1.1   2.6    .7    .9   .0   .44
.04   Collison,Nick   Okl   18   .591    7.6   7.2   1.6   4.4    .9   1.2   .6   .22

.03   Koufos,Kosta    Den    2   .524   16.2  10.7    .0   2.8    .6   1.8  1.4  1.12
.02   Forbes,Gary     Den    4   .515   12.7   4.9   2.1   3.1    .9   1.9   .2   .47
.01   Mozgov,Timofey  Den    2   .560   12.1   7.6    .0   3.4    .4   1.3   .8   .46

If anyone has knowledge of player unavailablity, comments to that effect (or any other) would be welcome.

Mavs vs Blazers
Another series with lots of above-average players (e484>1.00), but Brandon Roy is not one of them.
Edit: Earlier, I called Dallas, and now (even though the Mavs are up 1-0), revised numbers say Portland in 6 (or 7).
These previews do not consider home court advantage.

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3.46      3.41        Dal  240                           
3.82      4.14        Por  240                           
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.07  Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal  38   .600   28.9   8.2   3.0   2.6    .6   2.1   .7  2.28
.87  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por  40   .540   22.4   9.3   2.0   2.5   1.0   1.8  1.1  1.81
.64   Wallace,Gerald  Por  36   .580   18.5   8.8   2.6   2.8   2.0   2.3   .7  1.50
.57   Miller,Andre    Por  34   .520   15.7   4.9   8.2   2.4   1.6   2.8   .2  1.42
.53   Chandler,Tyson  Dal  30   .674   17.0  13.6    .6   4.4    .7   1.6  1.4  1.50

.46   Kidd,Jason      Dal  34   .496    9.1   5.3   9.8   1.7   1.9   2.5   .4  1.17
.42   Marion,Shawn    Dal  30   .545   16.6   9.0   1.8   2.2   1.0   2.0   .7  1.21
.41   Camby,Marcus    Por  28   .421    6.3  16.7   3.0   3.4   1.0   1.5  2.3  1.27
.37   Matthews,Wesley Por  30   .572   19.8   3.9   2.2   2.6   1.4   1.9   .1  1.08
.36   Terry,Jason     Dal  30   .540   18.5   2.2   4.7   1.9   1.2   2.2   .2  1.06

.31   Batum,Nicolas   Por  28   .557   16.3   6.0   1.9   2.9   1.0   1.2   .8   .99
.25   Roy,Brandon     Por  24   .484   16.0   3.7   3.6   2.1   1.0   1.5   .3   .92
.21   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal  20   .529   15.7   3.3   6.5   2.6    .6   2.6   .0   .96
.17   Stojakovic,Peja Dal  16   .560   16.8   5.0   1.7   1.6    .8    .8   .1   .94
.11   Brewer,Corey    Dal  10   .561   16.2   5.2   2.7   5.3   2.4   2.1   .4   .95

.08   Fernandez,Rudy  Por  12   .515   12.7   3.5   3.5   2.4   1.6   1.6   .3   .63
.06   Haywood,Brendan Dal  16   .514    8.1   9.7    .5   3.5    .4   1.2  1.7   .42
.06  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal  12   .545   13.3   3.6   2.6   2.3    .7   1.4   .2   .51
.02   Mills,Patrick   Por   4   .502   14.2   2.2   4.3   2.4   1.0   2.4   .0   .57
.01   Barron,Earl     Por   2   .292    4.9  14.8   2.9   3.7    .0   2.8   .0   .47

.01   Mahinmi,Ian     Dal   2   .622   12.2   7.7    .5   6.3    .8   1.5   .9   .46
.00   Johnson,Armon   Por   2   .491   11.8   4.2   4.8   3.2    .5   3.9   .1   .31
.00   Cardinal,Brian  Dal   2   .659    8.7   3.1   2.1   4.1   1.2    .8   .3   .08

Lakers vs Hornets
This series features 5-6 major players and a bunch of role players. Lakes have 4 of the top 5.
Lakers should win in 6, but they may well win in 5.
Edit: Game 1 was a fluke. LA still may take the next 4.

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4.13     4.76         LAL  240                           
2.87     2.24         NOH  240
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.26  Bryant,Kobe     LAL  40   .538   30.5   6.0   5.5   2.3  1.3   3.3   .2  2.43
1.05  Paul,Chris      NOH  40   .566   18.7   4.8  10.0   2.5  2.4   2.3   .1  2.04
1.00  Gasol,Pau       LAL  38   .577   21.5  10.8   3.6   2.5   .6   1.7  1.5  2.04
.68   Bynum,Andrew    LAL  30   .591   17.6  13.4   2.0   3.5   .5   1.9  2.5  1.76
.66   Odom,Lamar      LAL  32   .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   2.7   .6   1.9   .8  1.61

.51   Okafor,Emeka    NOH  34   .570   14.1  12.8    .7   3.8   .7   2.0  2.0  1.20
.33   Landry,Carl     NOH  30   .568   18.2   6.2    .8   4.2   .6   1.6   .7   .91
.32   Ariza,Trevor    NOH  36   .480   12.2   6.6   2.3   2.6  1.7   1.7   .4   .75
.26   Belinelli,Marco NOH  28   .555   18.0   3.3   1.8   2.8   .7   1.5   .1   .77
.22   Jack,Jarrett    NOH  24   .497   14.4   3.4   4.2   1.8   .9   1.8   .1   .77

.20   Artest,Ron      LAL  30   .480   11.1   4.4   2.9   2.8  2.0   1.4   .5   .58
.12   Brown,Shannon   LAL  16   .513   15.1   3.3   2.1   2.5  1.3   1.5   .3   .65
.12   Barnes,Matt     LAL  14   .561   12.3   7.4   2.3   3.9  1.2   1.8   .6   .72
.10   Green,Willie    NOH  20   .510   14.2   3.6   1.5   2.8   .7   1.3   .2   .46
.10   Fisher,Derek    LAL  28   .481    9.4   2.7   4.0   3.2  1.6   1.2   .1   .34

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.05   Smith,Jason     NOH  14   .484    9.7   7.7   1.0   4.3   .7   1.5   .9   .36
.03   Gray,Aaron      NOH   6   .556    8.8  11.7   1.0   5.8   .7   1.9   .7   .49
.01   Johnson,Trey    LAL   2   .750   18.6   0.0    .0   2.3   .0    .0   .0   .43
.00   Smith,Joe       LAL   2   .231    2.3  11.2   1.9   5.9   .0   1.8  2.2   .06
.00   Mbenga,D.J.     NOH   4   .509    5.6   8.6    .5   4.6   .5   1.9  2.3   .05

.00  Pondexter,Quincy NOH   4   .477    8.1   4.2   1.2   2.7   .7    .7   .4   .03
.00   Walton,Luke     LAL   2   .376    4.8   4.3   4.0   2.3   .5   1.9   .2  -.09
-.01  Blake,Steve     LAL   6   .497    6.6   3.3   3.6   2.0   .8   1.5   .1   .01

Spurs vs Grizzlies
This 1 vs 8 is fraught with uncertainty. The Spurs are old and damaged. The Grizz have almost no playoff experience.
Says here Spurs in 6.

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3.85     4.19       SAS  240                           
3.16     2.81       Mem  240                           
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.04  Randolph,Zach   Mem   38   .543   22.1  14.0   2.3   2.4   .9   2.1   .3   2.11
.91   Duncan,Tim      SAS   34   .529   18.8  12.8   3.8   2.1   .9   2.2  2.4   2.07
.85   Parker,Tony     SAS   36   .560   22.0   3.8   8.2   2.0  1.3   3.0   .0   1.84
.67   Ginobili,Manu   SAS   26   .570   23.7   4.9   6.4   2.5  1.9   2.7   .4   1.98
.54   Gasol,Marc      Mem   34   .567   15.3   9.2   2.9   3.9  1.1   2.1  1.9   1.27

.54   Conley,Mike     Mem   36   .514   14.9   3.6   6.9   2.4  1.9   2.3   .2   1.19
.43   Blair,Dejuan    SAS   24   .517   14.9  13.0   1.8   4.6  2.0   2.4   .8   1.40
.35   Allen,Tony      Mem   26   .551   16.2   5.0   2.4   3.8  3.0   2.0  1.0   1.08
.25  Jefferson,Richar SAS   28   .602   15.5   5.1   1.7   2.5   .6   1.4   .5    .74
.23   Hill,George     SAS   26   .576   15.1   3.3   3.2   2.4  1.0   1.5   .3    .74

.22   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   20   .527   15.5   7.7   1.1   4.6  1.1   1.8  1.2    .90
.21   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   26   .494   14.8   3.5   2.7   2.3  1.3   1.8   .4    .68
.16   Young,Sam       Mem   22   .518   13.6   4.7   1.6   2.7  1.6   1.4   .5    .63
.16   Neal,Gary       SAS   20   .572   16.2   4.0   1.9   2.8   .5   1.5   .1    .67
.13   Mcdyess,Antonio SAS   16   .510    9.5  10.1   2.2   3.9   .9   1.8   .9    .68

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
.10   Bonner,Matt     SAS   16   .613   12.3   5.7   1.4   2.5   .6    .6   .4    .57
.10   Splitter,Tiago  SAS   10   .533   12.3   9.1   1.2   3.9  1.2   1.4   .7    .80
.04   Battier,Shane   Mem   26   .525    7.0   5.9   1.9   1.8   .9    .9   .5    .20
.03   Haddadi,Hamed   Mem    2   .540   13.3  12.5    .8   4.8   .3   1.8  2.0   1.08
.02   Powe,Leon       Mem    2   .530   19.3   5.8   1.0   5.0   .6   1.5   .2    .96

.02   Novak,Steve     SAS    2   .738   17.7   3.6    .5   1.6   .1    .6   .7    .75
.01   Green,Danny     SAS    2   .586   14.8   5.2    .7   2.3   .7   1.6   .3    .53
.01   Vasquez,Greivis Mem    6   .488    8.8   2.9   5.4   2.9   .8   2.5   .1    .22

[EvanZ]

Seems to me if you go by the numbers in any of our favorite win metrics, the home team is favored in every single matchup. It's only a matter of how many games the series go.

Not to say I think the home team will win every matchup, I just don't see any way from the stats to confidently predict any upsets going in.

Is HCA the same in the playoffs as during the regular season? More? Less? It's probably been addressed here before, but...

[Mike G]

Since they tend to assign the better refs to playoff games, we'd expect less HCA.
Both Okl and Den are better since their midseason trades; and b-r.com has Den with the better (full season) SRS -- 4.81 to 3.81, exactly 1 PPG. Still, eWins expects better from Okl.

[Crow]

These teams average 5.6 guys over .25 on eW/7.
That seems about right.

[Crow]

bump

[Crow]

bump

[Mike G]

Mavs 2, Blazers 1
Avg score 94 - 89
Pythagorean wins 2.02 - .98
eWins 1.71 - 1.29

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.58   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   39   .528   30.3   9.5   2.7   2.5   .3   2.8   .6   2.39
.53   Kidd,Jason      Dal   35   .725   26.4   6.2   5.6    .7  1.4   2.1  1.0   2.40
.37   Miller,Andre    Por   35   .598   21.9   4.8   6.6   4.1   .3   2.1   .0   1.66
.35  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   43   .538   21.3   6.5   1.3   3.4   .6   1.7  1.4   1.33
.33   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .671   24.4   1.2   4.2   2.1  1.8   1.4   .0   1.59

.23   Camby,Marcus    Por   29   .500    6.3  17.9   2.4   4.3   .4    .4  1.3   1.28
.18   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   23   .630   21.5   6.1    .0   2.1   .5    .5   .5   1.29
.16   Matthews,Wesley Por   30   .690   22.2   1.9   1.1   3.3  1.2   2.4   .4    .83
.13   Wallace,Gerald  Por   40   .471    9.6   8.1   2.8   3.4  1.5   2.1   .3    .51
.10   Marion,Shawn    Dal   30   .512    9.3   7.8   2.7   2.9   .4   1.3  1.3    .55

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   25   .556    5.6  13.6    .5   6.0   .5   1.5  1.0    .33
.04   Batum,Nicolas   Por   28   .554   14.5   1.5   2.3   1.7   .8   2.1   .0    .24
.02   Roy,Brandon     Por   19   .429    9.4   2.1   3.9   3.6   .6    .6   .0    .17
.02   Fernandez,Rudy  Por   13   .438    5.3   8.1   1.6   4.4  1.8    .9   .9    .22
.00   Haywood,Brendan Dal   22   .455    5.1  10.7    .6   4.3   .5   2.1  1.1   -.03

-.05  Barea,Jose Juan Dal   19   .348    7.6    .0   4.8   4.4   .0   1.9   .0   -.39
-.05 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   12   .500    6.8   1.3   1.2   2.2  1.1   2.2   .0   -.66

[Crow]

Kidd has already exceeded his predicted contribution for a 7 game series. Chandler well under expected contribution pace so far.

[Mike G]

Spurs 1 , Grizzlies 1
Avg score SA 95.5 - 94 Mem
Pythagorean wins 1.10 - .90
eWins 1.05 - .95

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.34   Gasol,Marc      Mem   42   .610   18.1  12.3   2.5   4.4   .9   1.3  1.3   1.95
.32   Randolph,Zach   Mem   34   .537   21.4  11.0   3.9   4.9  1.6   2.2  1.1   2.24
.24   Hill,George     San   33   .574   19.2   6.4   3.7   2.8  3.3   1.1   .0   1.81
.22   Duncan,Tim      San   36   .593   18.9  11.6   1.0   4.7   .5   4.2  2.6   1.47
.18   Parker,Tony     San   39   .421   15.1   2.3   5.8   1.0  1.9   1.9   .5   1.10

.13   Conley,Mike     Mem   43   .467   12.6   5.1   7.3   2.6   .0   3.9   .0    .73
.12   Ginobili,Manu   San   17   .436   19.8   7.4   4.3   3.3  4.4   5.4  1.1   1.66
.11   Allen,Tony      Mem   26   .489   16.8   3.8   4.3   5.0  1.4   2.9   .7    .99
.11  Jefferson,Richar San   36   .806   17.4   5.1   1.0   2.6   .0   1.6   .0    .72
.06   Young,Sam       Mem   21   .559   17.9   4.7   1.1   6.2   .9   2.6   .9    .74

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   18   .591   11.5   5.7    .0   4.4   .9    .9  3.6    .71
.04   Battier,Shane   Mem   26   .542    8.1   4.8   2.3   2.6  1.3    .6   .6    .33
.03   Bonner,Matt     San   22   .750   11.5   5.1    .7   6.0   .7    .0   .0    .38
.03   Blair,Dejuan    San   18   .355    8.9   9.7   1.8   4.6   .0   1.8   .0    .40
.02   Neal,Gary       San   22   .552   10.9   5.2    .8   3.8   .0    .8   .8    .27

.02   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   25   .360   10.6   2.9   3.3   4.7   .0   1.4   .0    .16
.00   Mcdyess,Antonio San   20   .308    6.3   5.4   2.8   7.4   .0   2.8  2.8    .02

Under mpg are minutes divided by team's games.
In this series, shot creation weighs rather highly, while Eff% [Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA)] is lighter than normal.

[Mike G]

Okl 2 , Den 0
Avg score 106.5 - 96
Pythag 1.60 - .40
eWins 1.30 - .70

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.48   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .667   34.1   7.7   3.4   2.2   .9    .9   .0   2.77
.36  Westbrook,Russel Okl   35   .571   31.6   6.6   9.1   2.6  1.1   6.3   .5   2.49
.21   Hilario,Nene    Den   35   .594   20.8   9.0   1.0   3.2  1.6   1.6   .0   1.46
.19   Lawson,Ty       Den   36   .638   17.0   4.2   4.3   2.1  2.6   1.6   .5   1.32
.15   Harden,James    Okl   27   .605   16.2   6.4   3.8   3.8   .6    .6  1.3   1.30

.13   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   24   .417    9.6  16.7    .0   4.7   .0   2.3  4.7   1.30
.12   Maynor,Eric     Okl   14   .536   19.9   4.6   9.0    .0  2.5   1.2   .0   2.14
.10   Harrington,Al   Den   18   .833   24.5   3.7   2.9   2.8   .0   1.9   .0   1.30
.07   Felton,Raymond  Den   35   .528   13.2   0.5   5.4   3.5   .5   1.0   .0    .50
.07   Martin,Kenyon   Den   28   .386    8.3   8.8   3.7   3.4   .0    .7   .0    .58

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Collison,Nick   Okl   26   .857   10.2   7.6    .8   2.7   .0    .0   .0    .41
.03  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   27   .440    6.4  13.9    .0   6.2   .0   2.1   .7    .28
.03   Cook,Daequan    Okl   11   .611   15.3   9.4    .0   4.5   .0   1.5   .0    .68
.03  Gallinari,Danilo Den   35   .543   12.6   3.7   1.7   4.8  1.1   2.1   .0    .21
.02   Andersen,Chris  Den   10   .667   14.5   1.6    .0   6.6  1.6   1.6  3.3    .52

.01   Chandler,Wilson Den   31   .361    5.0   7.2    .7   3.0  1.2   1.2  1.2    .06
.01   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   22   .444    5.8   6.4   1.0   2.6  2.6   1.7   .0    .08
.00   Smith,J.R.      Den   12   .344   11.0   1.4   4.6   2.7  2.7   5.5   .0    .02
-.05  Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   15   .200    1.0   4.3    .0   8.0   .0   1.1  1.1   -.86

Thunders are outshooting the Nuggs .57 - .53, outrebounding them 45.5 - 32.5 .
Andersen has one rebound in 20 min.

[Mike G]

Lakers 2 , Hornets 1
Avg score 95.7 - 91
Pythagorean wins 1.98 - 1.02
eWins 1.74 - 1.26

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.68   Paul,Chris     NO   41   .664   28.6   4.8   9.4   1.8   1.8   2.4   .0   2.69
.45   Bryant,Kobe    LA   37   .556   29.0   5.1   3.5   2.6   1.3   3.6   .7   1.92
.36   Bynum,Andrew   LA   31   .595   20.4  14.6    .5   5.6    .4   1.6  1.6   1.85
.26   Artest,Ron     LA   33   .588   17.1   8.4   2.2   3.4    .7   1.1   .7   1.28
.25   Ariza,Trevor   NO   41   .421    9.9   8.2   3.1   2.1   1.5    .3   .9    .99

.23   Gasol,Pau      LA   36   .446   10.8   8.5   4.7   2.4    .3   2.1  2.1   1.05
.22   Odom,Lamar     LA   28   .609   19.9   8.3   2.9   4.1    .0   2.5   .4   1.26
.20   Landry,Carl    NO   34   .547   19.9   6.4    .4   4.6    .4   2.1   .7    .93
.12   Fisher,Derek   LA   34   .519   10.5   3.9   4.8   3.3   1.1   1.1   .0    .58
.10   Jack,Jarrett   NO   24   .500   11.3   4.6   5.4    .5    .0   1.5   .5    .71

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Okafor,Emeka   NO   29   .634   13.0   6.8    .0   5.5    .4   2.1   .4    .28
.04   Barnes,Matt    LA   12   .455    8.6   6.6    .0   5.6   4.6    .9   .0    .52
.03   Gray,Aaron     NO   17   .538   10.0   7.2    .7   4.7   1.4   2.0   .7    .32
.03   Brown,Shannon  LA   16   .464    9.2   4.2   3.5    .7    .7   2.2   .7    .30
.03   Smith,Jason    NO   10   .571    8.9   5.7   1.2   4.3   2.1    .0   .0    .43

.02   Mbenga,D.J.    NO    4   .750   10.6   8.0    .0  12.6   2.5   2.5  5.0    .84
.02   Johnson,Trey   LA    2   .500   16.2  19.4    .0   5.5    .0    .0   .0   1.81
.01   Blake,Steve    LA   11   .500    3.2   3.5   8.4   2.0    .0   2.0   .0    .10
-.02  Green,Willie   NO   13   .351    8.3   3.7    .0   6.2   1.8   1.8   .0   -.24
-.09 Belinelli,Marco NO   25   .365    6.9   1.6    .6   2.5    .5   2.0   .0   -.59

Odd to see Gasol in the 2nd tier of players, and Okafor in the 3rd.
Lakers outshooting NO .540 - .516, out-boarding by 7 per game.

[Mike G]

Thunder 3, Nuggets 0
Avg score 103.3 - 95.3
Pythag 2.23 - .77
eWins 1.87 - 1.13

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.65   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .592   29.3   5.9   4.3   2.9   .9   1.2   .9   2.48
.58  Westbrook,Russel Okl   35   .560   29.8   7.5   9.1   3.1   .7   4.9   .3   2.64
.38   Hilario,Nene    Den   34   .564   20.1   9.8   2.2   2.9  1.1   1.5  1.1   1.78
.34   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   29   .514   15.4  16.0    .0   4.7   .0   1.7  4.3   1.85
.23   Lawson,Ty       Den   33   .585   14.8   4.0   4.8   1.5  1.8   1.5   .4   1.12

.19   Harden,James    Okl   29   .569   14.1   5.9   3.3   4.0  1.2    .8   .8   1.07
.14   Andersen,Chris  Den   12   .750   24.0   5.4    .0   5.4  1.8   1.8  3.6   1.79
.11   Martin,Kenyon   Den   29   .444   11.9   8.5   2.8   3.8   .0   2.6   .4    .60
.10   Smith,J.R.      Den   13   .426   20.5   6.1   4.9   4.4  1.7   4.4   .0   1.32
.10   Maynor,Eric     Okl   13   .441   12.0   3.9   7.3    .0  1.7    .9   .0   1.21

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Felton,Raymond  Den   33   .466   10.5   1.7   5.4   3.1   .7   1.4   .0    .39
.06   Harrington,Al   Den   16   .667   15.3   3.5   2.3   2.8   .7   1.4   .0    .60
.04  Gallinari,Danilo Den   29   .500   11.9   3.8   1.8   4.2   .8   1.7   .0    .22
.04   Collison,Nick   Okl   22   .773   10.7   6.4    .6   3.6   .0    .5   .0    .26
.03   Cook,Daequan    Okl   11   .500   11.0   8.2    .0   3.1  1.0   1.0   .0    .46

.00   Afflalo,Arron   Den   11   .464   11.2   2.3   1.3   4.6   .0    .0   .0    .07
.00   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   22   .400    5.4   5.9    .7   2.9  2.3   1.2   .0   -.01
.00  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   24   .448    5.9  10.4    .0   6.7   .0   2.6  1.5   -.01
-.01  Chandler,Wilson Den   28   .348    4.7   6.5   1.0   4.8  1.3   1.3   .9   -.07
-.06  Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   14   .222    1.5   7.0    .0   8.5   .0    .8   .8   -.62

Big surge from Obaka (22-16-4), also Andersen (13-5-2, in 17 min.) .

[Mike G]

Grizzlies 2 , Spurs 1
Avg score 93 - 93
Pythag and eWins 1.50 apiece.

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.44   Randolph,Zach   Mem   36   .513   22.7   8.3   3.7   4.0  1.7   2.0   .7   1.94
.43   Gasol,Marc      Mem   41   .596   17.9  10.8   2.7   4.2   .6   1.2  1.2   1.68
.39   Duncan,Tim       SA   36   .549   17.1  11.8   3.4   4.1   .3   2.7  3.4   1.73
.31   Parker,Tony      SA   36   .429   17.6   3.5   7.7   1.7  2.0   3.4   .3   1.40
.30   Conley,Mike     Mem   42   .457   13.4   5.1   8.1   2.7   .9   3.0   .0   1.14

.29   Hill,George      SA   31   .568   18.1   6.6   3.6   2.3  2.3   1.5   .4   1.52
.28   Ginobili,Manu    SA   23   .519   25.3   5.3   5.5   2.6  2.1   4.2  1.6   1.96
.09   Allen,Tony      Mem   26   .471   11.5   3.2   4.4   5.8  1.3   2.2   .4    .55
.09   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   17   .595   12.7   7.1    .0   4.1   .6   1.2  3.5    .81
.08   Jefferson,Richar SA   36   .717   11.6   5.2    .8   2.4   .3   1.4   .3    .36

.07   Mcdyess,Antonio  SA   23   .400    7.5   8.0   2.6   6.4   .5   2.0  2.0    .49
.06   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   26   .412   11.6   3.0   3.8   4.2   .0   2.1   .0    .35
.05   Battier,Shane   Mem   26   .579    8.4   4.3   2.1   2.5   .8    .4   .4    .33
.04   Blair,Dejuan     SA   15   .385    9.0   8.0   1.7   3.3   .0   1.3   .0    .42
.04   Young,Sam       Mem   19   .480   13.8   3.5    .7   4.0   .6   2.3   .6    .30

.03   Neal,Gary        SA   20   .426    8.1   5.4   1.4   3.2   .0    .5   .5    .23
.02   Vasquez,Greivis Mem    5   .750    7.0   6.3   7.5   6.2  1.6   3.1  1.6    .78
.02   Bonner,Matt      SA   22   .667    6.5   5.9    .6   4.8   .5    .0   .0    .12

Both teams are shooting .510. The Spurs have a 45.3 - 40.7 rebound advantage, just one more TO in 3 games.
Why aren't they winning?

[Mike G]

Mavs 2 , Blazers 2
Avg score: Dal 91 - 87.8 Por
Pythag 2.47 - 1.53
eWins 2.24 - 1.76

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.75   Kidd,Jason      Dal   34   .728   26.2   7.0   5.5   1.7   1.7   2.0   .8   2.67
.68   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   39   .527   27.8   8.1   2.7   2.1    .2   3.1   .5   2.11
.47   Miller,Andre    Por   34   .595   22.5   4.7   5.6   3.3    .6   2.5   .0   1.66
.43  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   44   .524   18.9   5.9   1.1   3.0   1.2   1.4  1.6   1.18
.32   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .579   20.2   2.0   3.8   2.1   1.3   1.6   .0   1.18

.29   Roy,Brandon     Por   21   .575   22.3   3.5   5.0   2.7    .4   1.3   .0   1.68
.27   Camby,Marcus    Por   26   .469    5.3  17.6   2.1   5.3    .8    .4  2.3   1.25
.24   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   23   .618   20.7   4.8    .0   1.9   1.2    .4   .4   1.26
.23   Marion,Shawn    Dal   31   .524   11.4  10.6   2.6   3.2    .3   1.6   .9    .89
.18   Matthews,Wesley Por   32   .638   20.1   1.7   1.4   3.3   1.2   1.8   .3    .69

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12   Wallace,Gerald  Por   40   .467    9.2   8.7   2.7   2.7   1.1   2.3   .2    .36
.07  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   13   .636   17.0   3.3   3.7   2.7    .9   2.7   .0    .63
.07   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   26   .500    6.2  14.1    .8   6.5    .4   1.5   .8    .31
.01   Batum,Nicolas   Por   27   .545   13.1   2.2   1.8   2.6   1.0   2.0   .7    .03
.00   Haywood,Brendan Dal   21   .462    4.9  11.8    .4   4.3    .4   1.7  1.7   -.01

-.02  Fernandez,Rudy  Por   14   .321    3.8   6.9   1.9   3.4   1.4    .7   .7   -.18
-.12  Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   19   .333    6.7   1.2   5.1   4.4    .0   3.0   .0   -.77

This series has some odd parameters going on in eWins. Even shooting 73%, Kidd's 15 ppg shouldn't look like 26. Hopefully, things settle down soon.

[Mike G]

Grizzlies 2 , Spurs 1
Avg score 93 - 93
...
Both teams are shooting .510. The Spurs have a 45.3 - 40.7 rebound advantage, just one more TO in 3 games.
Why aren't they winning?

We interrupt our regular programming to bring an investigation. It turns out it's not just eWins which is struggling to capture team performance in boxscore stats.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2011.html
Thru 3 playoff games, the Spurs total 1.78 Win Shares, and the Grizzlies have 1.37
Minutes-weighted, SA has a team PER of 14.7, Mem 13.7

[Not sure why PER's don't total 15.0, nor why WS don't total 3.00]

So this rebounding disparity gets my attention, and especially on the offensive boards. During the season, Mem was one of the best OReb teams, SA among the weakest; now these features are reversed. But in fact, offensive and total rebounds by players add up to their team totals. (I'd thought maybe they had gotten reversed; and reversing them on the spreadsheet pretty much 'fixes' it -- but no. )

Next I look at Assists, and we see Mem averaging 21, to SA 17.7 .
Mem Ast/FG is .600 -- well above their season .528. SA is .582, right at their season mark.

But during the season, the Grizz' scorekeepers doled out to their home players just 94% of what road scorekeepers gave.
The Spurs, meanwhile, were among the most generous home assist-granters, getting 113% of what they got on the road.
These are relative to home and away FG. That is, (Home Ast/FG)/(Away Ast/FG)

What if, in the 2 games at SA, their players' assists had been jacked up by 13% ? Wouldn't this upset formulae in WS and PER?
Well, when I apply a factor incorporating 'home assist bias', leaving all other parameters exactly normal, eWins is about halfway to being 'fixed'. And the rest is rectified by minor (rather than torturous) tweaking of other parameters.

I'll also note that the Spurs' opponents during the season have the league's 2nd lowest Ast/FG ratio -- .539, for all 82 games. Perhaps this factor is also at play here. We can't assume, just because it's the playoffs, that scorekeepers are reigning in these disparities.