2011 Eastern Conf. Playoffs, round 1

[Mike G]

Celtics 4 , Knicks 0
Avg score : 99.25 to 90.75
Pythagorean Wins : 3.07 - .93
eWins : 2.53 - 1.47

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.69   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   42   .507   18.3   6.5  11.3    .9   .9   3.3   .0   1.98
.67   Anthony,Carmelo  NY   39   .495   24.4  10.0   4.1   3.7  1.2   3.0   .7   2.06
.57   Allen,Ray       Bos   40   .752   25.7   4.2   2.1   1.6  1.4   1.1   .2   1.72
.55   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   34   .504   18.5  12.6   4.2   1.9  2.2   3.2   .8   1.96
.49   Pierce,Paul     Bos   39   .571   24.1   4.2   2.5   3.3  1.9   2.4   .5   1.53

.21   Stoudemire,Amare NY   34   .433   14.7   8.9   1.8   2.7   .3   3.3   .8    .77
.15   Turiaf,Ronny     NY   19   .676   13.6   5.8   1.9   2.0   .5   1.5  3.1    .98
.14   O'Neal,Jermaine Bos   23   .611   10.4   6.8   1.8   7.3   .4   2.0  4.1    .72
.13   Jeffries,Jared   NY   21   .500    9.4   8.4    .4   2.8  1.2   1.2  2.8    .76
.12   Douglas,Toney    NY   28   .489   13.1   4.4   2.7   3.9   .6   1.3   .0    .53

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12   Williams,Shawne  NY   25   .571   11.4   5.0   1.6   2.8  1.4   1.4  1.4    .59
.10   Carter,Anthony   NY   12   .594   14.8   5.8   3.9    .7  1.4   2.8   .7    .98
.04   Davis,Glen      Bos   25   .462    8.3   7.3   1.5   3.9   .7   1.8   .0    .18
.03   Green,Jeff      Bos   17   .393   10.9   7.4    .0   7.1   .5   2.0  1.0    .24
.03   Krstic,Nenad    Bos    6   .667    7.4  11.6   3.1   4.2   .0   4.2  2.8    .59

.01   Mason,Roger      NY   14   .528   10.6   2.5   1.7   3.7   .6    .6   .0    .13
-.01  Walker,Bill      NY   22   .365    7.3   5.2   1.5   3.5  1.9   2.7   .0   -.05
-.01  West,Delonte    Bos   14   .333    4.2   5.2   3.5   3.8   .6   1.3   .0   -.08
-.01  Billups,Chauncey NY    9   .417    9.4   2.2   4.0   2.1   .0   3.1   .0   -.13
-.05  Fields,Landry    NY   18   .194    2.2   2.8   2.6    .0  1.1   2.2  1.6   -.33

Celts shot .545 and the Knicks .476 .
Carmelo didn't shoot great, but the rest of his team shot .468.
He was also their best rebounder and (by far, not saying much) best passer.

Boston's starting 5 played 74% of their minutes and had 96.5% of their eWins.
Celts with modest rebounding edge, 44.3 to 40.5 RPG.

[Mike G]

Hawks 3 , Magic 1
Avg score 90.3 - 87.5
Pythag 2.40 - 1.60
eWins 2.20 - 1.80

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.00  Howard,Dwight   Orl   45   .672   31.8  14.9    .2   3.7   .4   5.1  1.4   2.65
.73   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   31   .589   33.2   2.5   5.1   2.9   .6   1.4   .9   2.81
.46   Johnson,Joe     Atl   41   .500   19.8   6.1   4.2   1.5   .7   2.8   .0   1.34
.43   Smith,Josh      Atl   37   .500   15.8   9.2   3.6   3.7  1.0   2.5  1.0   1.40
.40   Nelson,Jameer   Orl   38   .434   14.3   5.7   5.3   2.4  1.4   1.2   .0   1.27

.40   Horford,Al      Atl   39   .449   13.1   8.8   2.9   2.3   .7   1.2   .9   1.22
.25   Hinrich,Kirk    Atl   32   .550   14.8   3.8   3.9   3.8   .9   1.2   .6    .95
.18   Arenas,Gilbert  Orl   10   .509   28.3   5.9   6.1   6.3   .9   4.5   .9   2.21
.11   Bass,Brandon    Orl   23   .518   13.0   6.6    .9   2.5  1.2   2.0   .4    .54
.09  Richardson,Jason Orl   26   .406    9.0   6.1   2.1   3.5  1.1   1.1   .7    .42

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Turkoglu,Hedo   Orl   37   .287    6.5   4.2   4.8   3.2  1.0   1.2   .2    .24
.07  Richardson,Quent Orl   16   .889   12.3   5.6   1.3   4.0   .6   1.2   .6    .49
.05   Pachulia,Zaza   Atl   14   .500    5.9  10.1   3.2   8.6   .0    .7   .7    .47
.05   Williams,Marvin Atl   16   .500    9.0   4.3   2.7   2.3  2.9   1.7   .0    .36

-.03  Powell,Josh     Atl    7   .500    5.5   5.5   1.5  10.2   .0   1.3   .0   -.51
-.04 Armstrong,Hilton Atl    4   .000     .0   2.7    .0  14.8  4.9   2.5   .0  -1.23
-.04  Anderson,Ryan   Orl   24   .333    3.9   6.6    .9   4.2  1.1    .4   .0   -.20
-.08  Redick,J.J.     Orl   20   .328    8.1   2.4   1.0   3.1   .4   1.8   .0   -.50
-.09  Collins,Jason   Atl   18   .429    3.3   4.7    .0   9.2  2.2   1.1   .5   -.58

Jamal Crawford's amazing performances are making up for substantial dropoffs from Atl 'big 3' .
Atl shooting .511 vs Orl .482
Non-Dwight Magics have shot .414 . Other than Crawford, Hawks are .487.

[Mike G]

Heat 3 , Sixers 1
Avg score : 93.3 - 85.5
Pythag : 3.04 - .96
eWins : 2.52 - 1.48

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.02  James,Lebron    Mia   43   .580   27.4   9.6   5.8   1.5   .6    .9   .9   2.88
.81   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   37   .535   26.0   8.0   5.9   2.2  1.5   3.0  2.2   2.62
.51   Bosh,Chris      Mia   40   .535   20.1   8.1   1.2   1.8   .9   1.6  1.4   1.54
.35   Holiday,Jrue    Phl   38   .565   16.8   3.3   4.4   2.2  2.0   2.0   .2   1.14
.25   Brand,Elton     Phl   37   .554   13.6   8.7    .2   3.8   .3   1.0  1.3    .83

.24   Williams,Lou    Phl   27   .472   15.8   2.4   4.3   1.6  1.6    .6   .0   1.05
.21  Ilgauskas,Zydrun Mia   16   .591   18.3  13.5    .8   5.0   .0   1.2  1.2   1.65
.20   Iguodala,Andre  Phl   37   .407    8.5   6.1   7.1   3.3  1.3   3.5   .5    .67
.16   Turner,Evan     Phl   17   .621   17.2   6.0   1.3   2.9  1.0    .0   .0   1.12
.15   Young,Thaddeus  Phl   25   .389   13.4   7.9   1.0   3.8  1.4   2.1   .3    .71

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Jones,James     Mia   24   .630   11.2   7.1    .9   1.4   .4   1.1   .4    .48
.08   Hawes,Spencer   Phl   19   .393    9.8   7.5   2.4   5.7   .0   1.0  1.0    .53
.04   Meeks,Jodie     Phl   25   .540    9.2   3.6   1.4   1.5  1.1    .4   .0    .19
.02   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   23   .386    6.0   2.7   4.4   4.8  2.2   1.5   .0    .11
.01   Battie,Tony     Phl    8   .583    6.7   8.4    .0   4.8   .0   1.0  1.9    .19

.01  Speights,Marrees Phl    5   .167    3.0   9.3   1.6   6.4   .0    .0  1.6    .19
-.05  Anthony,Joel    Mia   29   .342    3.1   6.4    .4   2.4   .3    .9  1.5   -.22
-.07  Bibby,Mike      Mia   24   .296    4.8   4.5   2.1   1.6   .0   2.0   .4   -.34

Mia shooting .514, Phl .475 . Non-LeBrons for Mia are .496 .
Heat also winning on the boards, 47.3 - 40.5. LeBron's Reb% is up from 11.4 in the season, to 13.9 in playoffs.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2011.html
Z up from 14.9 to 18.2 .

[Mike G]

Hawks 3 , Magic 2
Avg score : Orl 90.2 - 87.4 Atl
Pythagorean 3.02 - 1.98 , Orl
eWins 2.76 - 2.24

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.26  Howard,Dwight   Orl   42   .652   32.7  15.0    .2   4.0   .5   4.7  1.4   2.87
.64   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   30   .571   28.5   2.1   3.9   2.3   .5   1.6   .7   2.06
.55   Smith,Josh      Atl   35   .488   17.5   9.5   2.8   3.8   .8   2.3   .8   1.51
.53   Nelson,Jameer   Orl   36   .436   14.2   5.7   6.0   2.7  1.9   1.4   .0   1.41
.47   Horford,Al      Atl   39   .443   11.5   9.3   3.4   2.5   .6   1.1   .9   1.16

.39   Johnson,Joe     Atl   40   .462   16.1   5.3   3.5   1.6   .5   2.6   .2    .93
.25   Arenas,Gilbert  Orl   12   .474   22.3   6.0   6.3   5.4   .5   2.7   .5   1.91
.24   Hinrich,Kirk    Atl   31   .556   13.4   3.2   3.7   4.4  1.0   1.0   .5    .77
.20   Bass,Brandon    Orl   24   .494   12.9   7.7    .7   2.2  1.0   1.6  1.0    .80
.19  Richardson,Jason Orl   26   .457   12.1   6.0   2.0   4.0   .9    .9   .6    .72

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.15   Turkoglu,Hedo   Orl   34   .328    7.4   4.4   5.1   3.5   .9   1.1   .2    .43
.11   Williams,Marvin Atl   17   .605   12.6   4.7   1.7   3.1  2.8   2.8   .4    .59
.06  Richardson,Quent Orl   19   .719   10.1   6.2    .9   3.4   .4    .7   .4    .32
.03   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   25   .411    5.4   7.1   1.0   3.6  1.4    .3   .0    .12
.02   Pachulia,Zaza   Atl   15   .545    6.1   6.8   3.0   6.8   .0    .9   .5    .11

.02   Redick,J.J.     Orl   20   .425   11.6   3.0   2.0   2.7   .3   2.0   .0    .07
-.03  Powell,Josh     Atl    7   .500    5.2   6.2   1.0   7.0   .0    .9   .0   -.36
-.12  Collins,Jason   Atl   17   .333    2.1   4.0    .5   8.3  1.8    .9   .4   -.65

Orl now shooting .490 Eff%, Atl .498
Avg rebounds : Orl 44.6 , Atl 38.6

[Mike G]

Bulls 4 , Pacers 1
Avg score 97.6 - 90.2
Pythagorean 3.70 - 1.30
eWins 3.10 - 1.90

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.99   Rose,Derrick    Chi   39   .511   29.1   4.6   6.0   2.4   2.4   3.6  1.1   2.44
.62   Granger,Danny   Ind   37   .551   22.5   5.5   3.1   2.4   1.2   1.4   .2   1.62
.61   Noah,Joakim     Chi   32   .508   15.0  13.2   2.3   5.1   1.2   1.6  2.9   1.82
.55   Deng,Luol       Chi   42   .528   17.8   5.8   3.4   1.9   1.2   1.7   .3   1.25
.31   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   30   .407   11.7  13.4   2.2   4.6    .7   3.4   .7    .98

.25   Korver,Kyle     Chi   21   .634   20.7   3.1   3.2   3.9    .6   1.9   .6   1.15
.25   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   26   .486   14.8   9.6    .9   6.0    .6   3.7  2.5    .92
.20   Collison,Darren Ind   29   .456   11.5   3.3   5.2   1.8   1.3   2.3   .5    .66
.17   George,Paul     Ind   27   .405    7.3   7.0   1.4   3.1   2.0   2.0  2.8    .61
.13   Price,A.J.      Ind   16   .525   18.9   3.0   2.6   2.1   1.3   3.0   .0    .81

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12  Hansbrough,Tyler Ind   33   .406   11.1   6.0   1.2   2.9   1.3   2.0   .0    .37
.12   Bogans,Keith    Chi   19   .675   11.9   3.8   1.3   1.2   1.6    .4   .8    .62
.11   Dunleavy,Mike   Ind   14   .481   11.4   2.8   3.7   1.4   1.9    .5   .0    .70
.10   Mcroberts,Josh  Ind   16   .424    9.9   7.6   2.6   7.3   1.7   2.1   .4    .58
.08   Gibson,Taj      Chi   18   .476    7.6   9.2    .8   4.5    .4   2.2  2.2    .41

.08   Thomas,Kurt     Chi    9   .636   12.1   7.7   1.6   5.0    .7   1.4  1.4    .78
.06   Watson,C.J.     Chi   10   .395   11.7   2.2  10.1   5.5   1.4   5.5   .0    .63
.06   Foster,Jeff     Ind   19   .531    6.4   8.6   1.4   5.1    .7   1.8  1.4    .31
.05   Brewer,Ronnie   Chi   13   .500    6.8   6.3   2.9   1.1   1.1   1.1   .5    .40
.05   Jones,Dahntay   Ind   10   .531   18.7   1.4   1.4   4.8    .7   2.1   .0    .52

.04   Rush,Brandon    Ind   11   .571   10.1   4.2   1.8   3.0    .6    .6   .6    .36
.00   Asik,Omer       Chi    5   .333    2.1  10.9    .0   2.5   1.3   2.5  1.2   -.03

Just 5 of 22 players rate 'above average'; for Ind, only Granger.
Bulls shot .515, Pacers .488
Bulls win the boards, 46.4 - 38.4
Rose and Watson averaged 5.4 TO in 49 mpg.

[J.E.]

Hawks 3 , Magic 2

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-.12  Collins,Jason   Atl   17   .333    2.1   4.0    .5   8.3  1.8    .9   .4   -.65

I think that's a very unfair assessment of Collins. He might be the new Shane Battier:
Hawks defense in playoffs when he's on: 82. Off: 114
Regular season On: 97. Off: 108
Overall a +15 in the playoffs against the Magic. Hard to believe he is the worst player in this series

200th in individual defensive rebounding %, but 3rd in adjusted defensive rebounding. 2nd in defensive RAPM for 2011. It's almost like he's just doing the things we can't capture with traditional statistics; and nothing else

Please take this as constructive criticism: I think it would be good if you sprinkled some (more) defense on eWins

[Mike G]

Yes, critique accepted. There's also Joel Anthony for Miami, going 29 mpg.
He's also going up against Dwight Howard almost entirely. But Dwight out-rebounds Collins nearly 4-to-1. A player that near the basket should get that many rebounds just by grabbing what hits the floor.

He does get 1.8 Stl/36, so he can pick up balls. And then, he doesn't do much else.
If he'd get just 1 block and 9 boards (60% of Dwight) per36, he'd be out of the negative.

Not an ample defense of eWins, but b-r.com gives him .023 WS/48, and a PER of 1.1 .
That's quite a bit better on WS, and much worse in PER, relative to eW.

[Bobbofitos]

Yes, critique accepted. There's also Joel Anthony for Miami, going 29 mpg.
He's also going up against Dwight Howard almost entirely. But Dwight out-rebounds Collins nearly 4-to-1. A player that near the basket should get that many rebounds just by grabbing what hits the floor.

He does get 1.8 Stl/36, so he can pick up balls. And then, he doesn't do much else.
If he'd get just 1 block and 9 boards (60% of Dwight) per36, he'd be out of the negative.

Not an ample defense of eWins, but b-r.com gives him .023 WS/48, and a PER of 1.1 .
That's quite a bit better on WS, and much worse in PER, relative to eW.

He's limiting Dwight in terms of counterpart info - Dwight is gathering fewer boards against him, shooting worse, and committing more TOs. (Even if those TOs aren't registered as steals for Collins - he's drawn a few charges, etc.)

In terms of simple +/-, the Hawks are +10 when Collins is on the floor, -24 when he's on the bench. That ignores garbage time (where the Hawks actually closed the raw +/- slightly in game 5) not to mention 100% of Collins' minutes occur when Dwight is on the floor.

Magic are +18 with Dwight on the floor, -4 when he's on the bench. Dwight has done the bulk of his damage in the other ~60% of the minutes when he's not matched up against Collins. (The Magic are +28 over that span)

Edit: I think Jason Collins is a good case study, actually, since I believe he is an extreme in terms of what the boxscore is not handling properly. Every player, to some extent, has some Jason Collins in them (that sounds wrong!) but he simply has the most. (Where his value diverges maximally from what the boxscore is saying) Basically, take Jason Collins and his negative eWins away from the Hawks, and they've already lost 4-0 or 4-1.

[EvanZ]

I'll throw in Ekpe Udoh in that group like Collins and Anthony. Udoh looks terrible from a box score perspective (aside from shot blocking), but the team was so much better defensively when he was in there this year. In 1,000 minutes, they were +6.18 (remember, this is a 36 win team), with him off they were -5.55. That's one of the biggest differentials you will find this season (I know because I looked). The opponent eFG% went from 51.7 to 48.7 when he was on the court.

[Bobbofitos]

I'll throw in Ekpe Udoh in that group like Collins and Anthony. Udoh looks terrible from a box score perspective (aside from shot blocking), but the team was so much better defensively when he was in there this year. In 1,000 minutes, they were +6.18 (remember, this is a 36 win team), with him off they were -5.55. That's one of the biggest differentials you will find this season (I know because I looked). The opponent eFG% went from 51.7 to 48.7 when he was on the court.

looking at his impact a little closer, it appears the paint defense (close shots and volume) was vastly - vastly - improved for golden state w/ ekpe on the court vs without. Some of that has to do w/ the fact he was replacing some truly awful interior defenders, but he definitely bears a closer eye for next year. (probably a good gamble that he's a positive - maybe strongly so - team defender)

[Mike G]

...
He's limiting Dwight in terms of counterpart info - Dwight is gathering fewer boards against him, shooting worse, and committing more TOs. (Even if those TOs aren't registered as steals for Collins - he's drawn a few charges, etc.)
... I think Jason Collins is a good case study, actually, since I believe he is an extreme in terms of what the boxscore is not handling properly. ..

Dwight's OReb% and DReb% are both about what they were in the regular season. His TS% and eFG% are thru the roof, along with his TO%.
Collins, Zaza, Armstrong, and Etan Thomas total 38 minutes and 8.4 fouls per game. Dwight is averaging 10.2 PPG from the FT line alone.
Collins is 2-6 from both the line and from the field, in 5 games. As a certified Zero on offense, how does this affect the rest of his team? Their playoff eFG% is about .030 below their season's. Including Jamal Crawford (up .050).

While many Orlando players are having sub-par offensive showings, Dwight is not one of them.

Do the +/- data really show us anything other than that Collins is much better than Pachulia on defense?
Are Atlanta's perimeter defenders that much better with Collins behind them, that they're able to attack more aggressively against Turkoglu, Anderson, Redick, JRich, and Nelson, all of whom are shooting .100 to .200 below their norms?

[YaoPau]

I think that's missing the point by analyzing Dwight's numbers. The Hawks' strategy has been to guard Howard with 1 man, instead of the doubleteaming him or shading him like how most teams defend the Magic. The Hawks are okay letting Howard rack up box score numbers, as long as his teammates aren't getting open jumpshots, Collins/Zaza deserve credit for the poor performances of Hedo, JRich, QRich, Anderson and Redick.

[Mike G]

That's what I was asking, thanks.

So what, if anything, is in the boxscore -- including point differential -- that could tell us what Collins' value is in this series?
Alternatively, what value could be arbitrarily assigned to a guy just based on his minutes? A minimum of .34 eW/480 for a player who gets 17 mpg?

Then Turkoglu goes 34 mpg, is several times as productive, and for a better team.
Does 'unproductive' necessarily imply "defensive stalwart"?

[Bobbofitos]

...
He's limiting Dwight in terms of counterpart info - Dwight is gathering fewer boards against him, shooting worse, and committing more TOs. (Even if those TOs aren't registered as steals for Collins - he's drawn a few charges, etc.)
... I think Jason Collins is a good case study, actually, since I believe he is an extreme in terms of what the boxscore is not handling properly. ..

Dwight's OReb% and DReb% are both about what they were in the regular season. His TS% and eFG% are thru the roof, along with his TO%.
Collins, Zaza, Armstrong, and Etan Thomas total 38 minutes and 8.4 fouls per game. Dwight is averaging 10.2 PPG from the FT line alone.
Collins is 2-6 from both the line and from the field, in 5 games. As a certified Zero on offense, how does this affect the rest of his team? Their playoff eFG% is about .030 below their season's. Including Jamal Crawford (up .050).

While many Orlando players are having sub-par offensive showings, Dwight is not one of them.

Do the +/- data really show us anything other than that Collins is much better than Pachulia on defense?
Are Atlanta's perimeter defenders that much better with Collins behind them, that they're able to attack more aggressively against Turkoglu, Anderson, Redick, JRich, and Nelson, all of whom are shooting .100 to .200 below their norms?

Pachulia actually has had a relatively good defensive series - it's been Hilton Armstrong, Josh Powell, Etan Thomas, and the small bursts of Josh Smith/Al Horford that have gotten destroyed.

As far as the Hawks offense being .030 eFG below their season norm - how much of that do you attribute to Jason Collins being on the floor for ~18mpg, and how much of that is because the entire 5 game sample has been against one of the best defenses in the league? I'd say, adjusting for opponent quality, Jason hasn't really hindered the Atlanta offense much, if at all.

[Bobbofitos]

That's what I was asking, thanks.

So what, if anything, is in the boxscore -- including point differential -- that could tell us what Collins' value is in this series?

not to toot my own horn or anything, but I've been following this series pretty closely. http://bit.ly/f9EQ9o
Game by game breakdown of the matchup (I've done 4, last night's game will be up sometime late this afternoon). There's nothing in the boxscore that will attribute defender in each matchup - that comes from the pbp data - but overall it's represented in Dwight's line. Against the subpar defenders he's been the GOAT, against Jason (and to a similar extent, Zaza) he's been quite human.