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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 276
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:58 pm Post subject: NBA Teams that "blew it up" Reply with quote
Can anyone give some good examples of this? I'm wondering if we follow these teams out, say, 5 years, if "blowing it up" worked.
An example would be the Wizards getting rid of Jamison, Haywood, and Butler. Will it work out for them? They got Wall, so that's a start.
Also, can we define "blowing it up" statistically? When is it a good idea?
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 266
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: NBA Teams that "blew it up" Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
Can anyone give some good examples of this? I'm wondering if we follow these teams out, say, 5 years, if "blowing it up" worked.
An example would be the Wizards getting rid of Jamison, Haywood, and Butler. Will it work out for them? They got Wall, so that's a start.
Also, can we define "blowing it up" statistically? When is it a good idea?
It obviously depends on the teams goals. Do they want to be a contender, or are they OK with finishing in the middle of the pack every year?
I'd say it's probably a good idea if you're drafting ~15th and finish ~9th in your conference year after year. If you finish way worse and draft lower(better) there's no reason for blowing it up because you will get a high pick anyway, and if you finish better and draft higher(worse) then that means that you're already (close to) contending
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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Location: Hendersonville, NC
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:54 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This has been discussed here, and I don't recall any example of a team throwing away their best talent and realizing an immediate or longer-term gain. But I don't know how to search for it. Best to just solicit candidates.
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 810
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:05 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
One basis for "blowing it up" would be a 20+ win drop in a single season and some transaction that qualifies as action to blow it up. A trade or not re-signing a top 2 player might be one criteria or multiple starters or a coach leaving. Slower than that or less than that is not a blow up to me and only constitutes melting. Maybe this perspective is too demanding. I didn't immediately find many candidates in the last 20 years. Maybe you'd have to allow a 20+ win slide over 2 years to get enough candidates.
A successful blow up is also a bit tricky to define. Playoffs in 5 years is one standard but not that high a standard. I'd say get to the second round within 5 years might be a decent minimum standard.
The Grizzlies blew it up with the Gasol trade after 2005-6. This would be their last spring to get to the 2nd round and qualify as a successful blow-up by my suggested standard.
The Bulls after the last Jordan run did not succeed within 5 years.
I guess this is only the 4th season after the 2006-7 Heat season. The trade of Shaq waited til Feb. 2008. If they go deep in the playoffs I'd say that was a successful blow-up.
This is only season 3 after the 2007-8 Pistons' last hurrah and the subsequent 20 win drop. So maybe Dumars gets 2 more seasons?
The Celtics blew Jefferson off their previous team and succeeded; but they didn't blow up the team and experience a fall. They got Garnett and Allen courtesy of several former Boston residents.
Rick Sund tried to stave off a blow up in the results of the Sonics by trading for Ray Allen then re-signing him but it still happened, related to the loss of Nate McMillan or more than that. Sam Presti did the personnel blow up after a 21 win loss from the temporary bounce to 52 in 2004-5 had already occurred and the wins went down another 11. Enough to prime the draft pump. If you start the clock after the initial 17 win loss you'd need to get to the 2nd round this season to meet the standard within 5 years. If you re-start the clock when Presti was hired, you have 2 remaining playoff tries to get to the 2nd round including the upcoming one to meet this minimum success standard. Ultimately you have to go further than the 2nd round of course for it to be considered a really special blow up and re-build.
Last edited by Crow on Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:58 pm; edited 2 times in total
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erivera7
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 181
Location: Chicago, IL
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:48 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
The Orlando Magic blew it up, even if they still managed to win 41 games in 1999, in their pursuit of Tim Duncan, Grant Hill, and Tracy McGrady.
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 810
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:09 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Yeah they blew it up and didn't get what they hoped for in Hill.
After the 2004 Finals loss, the Lakers blew O'Neal out and got to the Finals again in 4 years. That is fast. Maybe about as fast as the best can do it.
Malone left Utah after 2002-3. Two step drop, then back in conference finals in year 4.
A title in 5 years is a fairly popular goal / promise / ticket pitch for a lowly team (it isn't so remote but you've got some time to sell it and time to try and try to achieve it) but even a 2nd round appearance is a hard thing to deliver within 5 years of a significant fall.
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Qscience
Joined: 22 Jun 2009
Posts: 70
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 7:56 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
1987 - Record of 27 wins
1988 - Record of 55 wins
(Jerry Colangelo publicly stated he was clearly blowing up the team, but promised to bring in the old run and gun style the Phoenix Suns were so successful with in the past.)
With a drug scandal and the loss of promising young center Nick Vanos, who was killed in the crash of Northwest Airlines Flight 255, the franchise was in turmoil both on and off the court. The Suns' luck began to turn around in 1987, however, with the acquisition of Kevin Johnson from the Cleveland Cavaliers, along with Mark West and Tyrone Corbin for popular All-Star power forward Larry Nance.
In 1988, the beginnings of a franchise-record 13 consecutive playoff appearances happened for the Suns. All-Star Tom Chambers came over from the Seattle SuperSonics (the first unrestricted free agent in NBA history), 1986 second round draft pick Jeff Hornacek continued to develop, and "Thunder" Dan Majerle was drafted with the 14th pick in the 1998 draft, (obtained via the trade involving Kevin Johnson). Kurt Rambis was added from the Charlotte Hornets in 1989, and the team (coached by Fitzsimmons), in a shocking upset, beat the Los Angeles Lakers in five games that season, before falling to the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference Finals.
In 1991, the Suns stormed to a 55–27 record, however lost in the first round to the Utah Jazz, 3–1. In 1992, the Suns cruised to a 53–29 record during the regular season. While having sent four players to the All-Star Game in the last two seasons (Chambers, Johnson, Hornacek and Majerle), the Suns were poised to make a serious run at the NBA Finals. They showed their poise by sweeping the San Antonio Spurs in three games in the first round of the 1992 NBA Playoffs. But once again, the Suns fell in five games to the Trail Blazers in the conference semifinals.
The series was punctuated by an electrifying Game 4, in which the Suns lost in double overtime 153–151 (the highest scoring game in NBA Playoff history to-date). That game would end up being the last Suns game ever played at the Coliseum. The Suns were yet again denied a shot at a title, but it would not be long before the Suns enjoyed a degree of success they had not experienced for quite some time.