2011 Playoff summaries

[Mike G]

Here are the playoff leaders in eWins (equivalent wins added).
All teams have played 4 games, except Dallas and Portland, which have gone 5. So I've multiplied their eWins by 4/5 to get their 'eWins per 4 games'.

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eWins   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.02  James,Lebron     Mia   43   .580   27.4   9.6   5.8   1.5    .6    .9   .9   2.88
1.00  Howard,Dwight    Orl   45   .672   31.8  14.9    .2   3.7    .4   5.1  1.4   2.65
.99   Paul,Chris        NO   42   .671   28.3   6.9  10.1   1.8   1.8   2.9   .0   2.87
.81   Wade,Dwyane      Mia   37   .535   26.0   8.0   5.9   2.2   1.5   3.0  2.2   2.62
.81   Kevin Durant     Okl   42   .608   29.6   5.4   3.7   3.3    .9   1.5   .7   2.32

.81   Dirk Nowitzki    Dal   39   .528   29.6   8.2   2.8   1.9    .6   3.0   .4   2.50
.74  Russell Westbrook Okl   36   .522   28.5   6.8   7.8   3.5    .8   4.3   .5   2.45
.73   Crawford,Jamal   Atl   31   .589   33.2   2.5   5.1   2.9    .6   1.4   .9   2.81
.69   Rondo,Rajon      Bos   42   .507   18.3   6.5  11.3    .9    .9   3.3   .0   1.98
.68   Rose,Derrick     Chi   41   .493   26.9   4.7   5.5   1.7   2.4   3.7   .9   1.99

.67   Anthony,Carmelo   NY   39   .495   24.4  10.0   4.1   3.7   1.2   3.0   .7   2.06
.60   Jason Kidd       Dal   34   .649   17.7   7.0   7.5   2.2   1.3   1.9   .6   2.09
.58   Marc Gasol       Mem   40   .602   17.4  10.6   3.1   3.5    .5   1.2  1.4   1.75
.57   Allen,Ray        Bos   40   .752   25.7   4.2   2.1   1.6   1.4   1.1   .2   1.72
.57   Zach Randolph    Mem   35   .522   21.5   9.0   4.1   4.2   1.8   2.4   .5   1.96

eWins   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.57   Bryant,Kobe       LA   37   .511   25.5   5.6   5.0   3.0   1.2   3.2   .5   1.86
.55   Garnett,Kevin    Bos   34   .504   18.5  12.6   4.2   1.9   2.2   3.2   .8   1.96
.52   Granger,Danny    Ind   37   .547   24.0   5.3   3.2   2.2   1.5   1.0   .2   1.70
.51   Bosh,Chris       Mia   40   .535   20.1   8.1   1.2   1.8    .9   1.6  1.4   1.54
.49   Pierce,Paul      Bos   39   .571   24.1   4.2   2.5   3.3   1.9   2.4   .5   1.53

.47   Andre Miller     Por   34   .596   22.1   3.8   5.8   3.1    .4   2.4   .0   1.67
.46   Johnson,Joe      Atl   41   .500   19.8   6.1   4.2   1.5    .7   2.8   .0   1.34
.46  Lamarcus Aldridge Por   43   .505   16.7   6.4   1.2   2.9   1.3   1.3  1.7   1.27
.44   Nene Hilario     Den   33   .529   17.7  10.0   2.3   3.7   1.1   1.4  1.1   1.60
.43   Serge Ibaka      Okl   31   .532   13.7  15.0    .0   3.9    .0   1.2  4.5   1.66

.43   Bynum,Andrew      LA   32   .573   17.6  13.7    .3   5.2    .6   1.7  2.0   1.60
.43   Smith,Josh       Atl   37   .500   15.8   9.2   3.6   3.7   1.0   2.5  1.0   1.40
.41   Noah,Joakim      Chi   32   .474   14.0  13.6   1.9   5.0   1.2   1.7  2.6   1.55
.41   Tim Duncan        SA   34   .531   14.7  11.7   2.9   3.7    .3   2.7  2.9   1.45
.40   Nelson,Jameer    Orl   38   .434   14.3   5.7   5.3   2.4   1.4   1.2   .0   1.27

eWins   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.40   Horford,Al       Atl   39   .449   13.1   8.8   2.9   2.3    .7   1.2   .9   1.22
.39   Mike Conley      Mem   41   .460   13.1   4.5   8.7   2.7    .7   2.5   .0   1.14
.38   Ty Lawson        Den   34   .613   19.0   3.7   4.2   2.2   1.4   1.4   .3   1.35
.37   Gasol,Pau         LA   36   .476   12.8   7.6   4.6   3.1    .5   1.5  2.3   1.25
.35   Holiday,Jrue     Phl   38   .565   16.8   3.3   4.4   2.2   2.0   2.0   .2   1.14

.35   Ariza,Trevor      NO   41   .444   12.0   7.9   3.1   2.2   1.1    .7   .7   1.02
.35   Tony Parker       SA   35   .507   21.0   3.7   5.1   1.3   1.9   4.5   .3   1.21
.35   Manu Ginobili     SA   25   .514   22.4   4.7   5.0   2.2   2.2   3.7  1.1   1.68
.34   Jason Terry      Dal   33   .562   20.5   2.0   3.4   2.1   1.3   1.7   .0   1.24
.34   Artest,Ron        LA   34   .622   17.6   7.5   1.6   3.0   1.1   1.1   .6   1.21

eWins per 480 minutes (last column) of 1.00 is average.

[Mike G]

I redid the spreadsheets to incorporate home blocked-shots bias. Now everyone has played 5 games, except Bos and NY, who were done at 4. Ranked by eWins per actual game played.

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eW/G    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.247   Howard,Dwight   Orl   42   .652   32.5  15.0    .2    .5   4.7  1.4   2.82
.238   James,Lebron    Mia   42   .571   24.9   9.5   6.3    .7   1.2   .7   2.70
.228   Paul,Chris       NO   41   .663   27.3   6.3  10.2   1.6   3.0   .0   2.64
.212   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   38   .516   25.3   8.5   6.2   1.4   2.7  1.9   2.68
.203   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .611   30.9   4.9   3.3    .9   1.2   .9   2.32

.199   Dirk Nowitzki   Dal   39   .528   29.6   8.2   2.8    .6   3.0   .4   2.47
.199   Rose,Derrick    Chi   39   .511   29.1   4.6   6.0   2.4   3.6  1.1   2.44
.172   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   42   .507   18.3   6.5  11.3    .9   3.3   .0   1.98
.168   Anthony,Carmelo  NY   39   .495   24.4  10.0   4.1   1.2   3.0   .7   2.06
.154   Ginobili,Manu    SA   35   .576   26.4   5.0   5.1   2.6   4.2   .8   2.12

eW/G    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.154   Randolph,Zach   Mem   37   .547   21.5   9.1   4.2   1.4   2.2   .6   2.02
.154  Westbrook,Russel Okl   36   .494   25.4   6.2   7.4    .8   4.1   .4   2.04
.148   Jason Kidd      Dal   34   .649   17.7   7.0   7.5   1.3   1.9   .6   2.07
.143   Allen,Ray       Bos   40   .752   25.7   4.2   2.1   1.4   1.1   .2   1.72
.139   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   34   .504   18.5  12.6   4.2   2.2   3.2   .8   1.96

.137   Bryant,Kobe      LA   35   .529   26.2   5.5   5.3   1.3   3.3   .4   1.87
.129   Bosh,Chris      Mia   40   .532   20.2   8.6    .9    .9   1.6  1.1   1.54
.126   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   30   .571   28.5   2.1   3.7    .5   1.6   .7   2.02
.125   Granger,Danny   Ind   37   .551   22.5   5.5   3.1   1.2   1.4   .2   1.62
.123   Pierce,Paul     Bos   39   .571   24.1   4.2   2.5   1.9   2.4   .5   1.53

eW/G    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.121   Bynum,Andrew     LA   31   .584   20.1  14.7    .8    .5   2.1  2.1   1.86
.121   Noah,Joakim     Chi   32   .508   15.0  13.2   2.3   1.2   1.6  2.9   1.82
.118   Gasol,Marc      Mem   40   .553   14.3  11.5   2.6    .5   1.6  1.3   1.42
.116   Andre Miller    Por   34   .596   22.1   3.8   5.8    .4   2.4   .0   1.66
.114  Lamarcus Aldridge Por  43   .505   16.7   6.4   1.2   1.3   1.3  1.7   1.27

.110   Deng,Luol       Chi   42   .528   17.8   5.8   3.4   1.2   1.7   .3   1.25
.108   Smith,Josh      Atl   35   .488   17.5   9.5   2.7    .8   2.3   .8   1.49
.104   Nelson,Jameer   Orl   36   .436   14.2   5.7   5.9   1.9   1.4   .0   1.39
.102   Duncan,Tim       SA   35   .508   13.3  11.7   3.0    .4   2.7  2.5   1.39
.100   Parker,Tony      SA   37   .503   19.6   3.2   5.9   1.6   3.6   .4   1.32
.100   Gasol,Pau        LA   36   .492   13.6   8.4   4.7    .4   1.8  2.4   1.33

It steps down pretty sharply here. No one else is over .090 eW/G and over 1.15 eW/480 min.
(These 31 are all over .100 eW/G and over 1.25 e480.)

[Crow]

A few surprises or at least mild surprises but generally the names you'd expect from the regular season.

[J.E.]

Dwight Howard was channeling his inner Yinka Dare with a 3/33 assist to turnover ratio. The only players to even come close in the last 20 years are Mourning in 04/05 with 5/22, Yao in 06/07 with 6/33 and Kemp in 91/92 with 4/27. You can obviously make the case that his teammates could have prevented this by hitting a couple more shots

[Mike G]

Post-First round leaders in eWins per game played.

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eW/G    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.274   Howard,Dwight   Orl   43   .648   33.2  14.9    .4   3.6   .6   4.7  1.6   3.06
.238   James,Lebron    Mia   42   .571   24.9   9.5   6.3   1.5   .7   1.2   .7   2.70
.218   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   39   .560   31.5   8.7   3.0   2.4   .5   3.2   .5   2.72
.212   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   38   .516   25.3   8.5   6.2   1.7  1.4   2.7  1.9   2.68
.203   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .611   30.9   4.9   3.3   2.9   .9   1.2   .9   2.32

.202   Paul,Chris       NO   42   .650   24.1   6.5  10.1   1.6  1.6   3.2   .0   2.33
.199   Rose,Derrick    Chi   39   .511   29.1   4.6   6.0   2.4  2.4   3.6  1.1   2.44
.174   Randolph,Zach   Mem   37   .558   23.7   9.6   3.9   3.5  1.3   2.0   .5   2.25
.172   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   42   .507   18.3   6.5  11.3    .9   .9   3.3   .0   1.98
.168   Anthony,Carmelo  NY   39   .495   24.4  10.0   4.1   3.7  1.2   3.0   .7   2.06

.154  Westbrook,Russel Okl   36   .494   25.4   6.2   7.4   3.4   .8   4.1   .4   2.04
.145   Ginobili,Manu    SA   35   .569   25.3   4.5   4.5   2.7  2.7   3.6   .6   1.99
.143   Allen,Ray       Bos   40   .752   25.7   4.2   2.1   1.6  1.4   1.1   .2   1.72
.140   Bryant,Kobe      LA   34   .536   28.2   4.9   5.1   2.9  1.6   3.6   .4   1.96
.139   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   34   .504   18.5  12.6   4.2   1.9  2.2   3.2   .8   1.96

.133   Bynum,Andrew     LA   31   .595   22.2  15.5   1.0   4.6   .6   2.6  2.2   2.06
.129   Bosh,Chris      Mia   40   .532   20.2   8.6    .9   1.8   .9   1.6  1.1   1.54
.128   Kidd,Jason      Dal   34   .631   15.5   6.1   7.5   2.0  1.4   1.8   .5   1.79
.127   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   30   .564   27.8   2.0   3.2   1.9   .8   1.3   .6   2.03
.125   Granger,Danny   Ind   37   .551   22.5   5.5   3.1   2.4  1.2   1.4   .2   1.62

eW/G    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.123   Pierce,Paul     Bos   39   .571   24.1   4.2   2.5   3.3  1.9   2.4   .5   1.53
.121   Noah,Joakim     Chi   32   .508   15.0  13.2   2.3   5.1  1.2   1.6  2.9   1.82
.114   Gasol,Marc      Mem   40   .559   13.9  11.9   2.3   3.5   .5   2.0  1.3   1.36
.110   Deng,Luol       Chi   42   .528   17.8   5.8   3.4   1.9  1.2   1.7   .3   1.25
.108  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   43   .492   16.3   6.9   1.1   2.7  1.1   1.3  1.4   1.20

.106   Wallace,Gerald  Por   38   .548   15.9   9.8   2.6   3.1  1.3   2.4   .5   1.36
.106   Gasol,Pau        LA   36   .500   14.8   8.8   4.8   3.1   .3   1.9  2.4   1.42
.105   Parker,Tony      SA   37   .520   20.8   2.8   5.4   1.7  1.3   3.3   .3   1.36
.104   Nelson,Jameer   Orl   36   .444   13.9   4.8   6.0   2.4  2.1   1.4   .0   1.39
.102   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .578   21.8   2.3   4.4   1.9  1.1   1.9   .0   1.47

.100   Duncan,Tim       SA   35   .494   13.1  11.7   3.0   3.0   .5   3.1  2.6   1.37
.099   Horford,Al      Atl   40   .444   11.0   9.9   3.6   2.6   .5   1.2   .9   1.19
.096   Smith,Josh      Atl   35   .453   16.1   9.2   2.6   3.8   .9   2.7  1.1   1.34
.094   Johnson,Joe     Atl   41   .458   16.8   6.1   3.3   1.3   .4   2.4   .1   1.10
.091   Miller,Andre    Por   32   .563   19.1   4.0   6.0   3.2   .4   2.5   .0   1.35

[Crow]

I wonder how well any of the available metrics set up on a player contribution to win per game or per series basis would do at predicting the next rounds based on their estimated impact and the net of that against the impact of their estimated counterpart (from some combination of simple comparison of "own" values or looking at season level opponent performance and direct match-up games) as compared to 1) simple point differential basis analysis, or 2) team level 4 Factor analysis, or 3) a more detailed model down to shot level and including rotations and coaching or 4) a hybrid system with some of each. If it were deemed worth the time.

[Mike G]

I don't know what other systems could do, but there's nothing in eWins that predicts any specific matchup edge between team A and team B. Nor what scheme a given coach will undertake. Intuitively, an 82 game season still tells you more about a team's expected point differential than the last 4 to 7 games tells you. Unless a weakness has been exploited AND the team with that weakness has still advanced, what can you know from a distance?

Coaches get the big bucks to make their adjustments, probably based on gut feelings more than all other evidence together.

[Mike G]

A day late, but eWins per game leaders who are still playing, thru Round 1 :

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eW/G     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.238   James,Lebron    Mia   42   .571   24.9   9.5   6.3   1.5   .7   1.2   .7   2.70
.218   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   39   .560   31.5   8.7   3.0   2.4   .5   3.2   .5   2.72
.212   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   38   .516   25.3   8.5   6.2   1.7  1.4   2.7  1.9   2.68
.203   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .611   30.9   4.9   3.3   2.9   .9   1.2   .9   2.32
.199   Rose,Derrick    Chi   39   .511   29.1   4.6   6.0   2.4  2.4   3.6  1.1   2.44

.174   Randolph,Zach   Mem   37   .558   23.7   9.6   3.9   3.5  1.3   2.0   .5   2.25
.172   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   42   .507   18.3   6.5  11.3    .9   .9   3.3   .0   1.98
.154  Westbrook,Russel Okl   36   .494   25.4   6.2   7.4   3.4   .8   4.1   .4   2.04
.143   Allen,Ray       Bos   40   .752   25.7   4.2   2.1   1.6  1.4   1.1   .2   1.72
.140   Bryant,Kobe      LA   34   .536   28.2   4.9   5.1   2.9  1.6   3.6   .4   1.96

eW/G     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.139   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   34   .504   18.5  12.6   4.2   1.9  2.2   3.2   .8   1.96
.133   Bynum,Andrew     LA   31   .595   22.2  15.5   1.0   4.6   .6   2.6  2.2   2.06
.129   Bosh,Chris      Mia   40   .532   20.2   8.6    .9   1.8   .9   1.6  1.1   1.54
.128   Kidd,Jason      Dal   34   .631   15.5   6.1   7.5   2.0  1.4   1.8   .5   1.79
.127   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   30   .564   27.8   2.0   3.2   1.9   .8   1.3   .6   2.03

.123   Pierce,Paul     Bos   39   .571   24.1   4.2   2.5   3.3  1.9   2.4   .5   1.53
.121   Noah,Joakim     Chi   32   .508   15.0  13.2   2.3   5.1  1.2   1.6  2.9   1.82
.114   Gasol,Marc      Mem   40   .559   13.9  11.9   2.3   3.5   .5   2.0  1.3   1.36
.110   Deng,Luol       Chi   42   .528   17.8   5.8   3.4   1.9  1.2   1.7   .3   1.25
.106   Gasol,Pau        LA   36   .500   14.8   8.8   4.8   3.1   .3   1.9  2.4   1.42

eW/G     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.102   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .578   21.8   2.3   4.4   1.9  1.1   1.9   .0   1.47
.099   Horford,Al      Atl   40   .444   11.0   9.9   3.6   2.6   .5   1.2   .9   1.19
.096   Smith,Josh      Atl   35   .453   16.1   9.2   2.6   3.8   .9   2.7  1.1   1.34
.094   Johnson,Joe     Atl   41   .458   16.8   6.1   3.3   1.3   .4   2.4   .1   1.10
.089   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   32   .490   11.1  13.0    .5   3.7   .5   2.1  5.6   1.34

.086   Conley,Mike     Mem   39   .457   13.0   4.6   7.3   3.3   .8   2.1   .2   1.08
.074   Artest,Ron       LA   33   .592   15.6   7.0   2.8   2.8   .9   1.1   .6   1.08
.074   Marion,Shawn    Dal   31   .504   12.7   8.6   2.6   3.0  1.0   1.2  1.0   1.13
.067   Odom,Lamar       LA   28   .537   16.4   9.1   3.0   2.8   .2   1.8   .4   1.14
.067   Harden,James    Okl   30   .565   12.9   6.7   4.0   3.8  1.4   1.6  1.2   1.07

[Crow]

Of course the levels matter, but in terms of presence in the top 30, it splits out:

Lakers 5, Celtics, Hawks, Mavs & Thunder 4, Bulls, Griz & Heat 3.


The rounded averages for these leaders are eW/g of .13, 36 minutes, EFF of 54%, 20.0 SCO, 7.8 REB, 4 assists, 2.7 PFs, 1 ST, 2.1 TOs, 1 Block and 1.72 e480.

With average eW/g for top guys at .13, it follows in broad terms that you either need some combo of 4+ top guys, better than average top guys, better than average support casts and weaker than average opponents to win a series from here.

It might be interesting to track how many of these 4 ways to help win, each series winner achieved and what the averages are in the first round and beyond.

In the first round Memphis beat San Antonio on more guys above .34 eWs in the round (the cutoff for the top 30 who made the round 2) more impact from them and a higher eW/g for the top 3 guys, whereas I guess the Spurs won on eW/g beyond the top 3.

The Thunder beat the Nuggets on more guys above .34 eWs, more impact from them, and a higher eW/g for the top 3 guys, whereas I guess the Nuggets won on eW/g beyond the top 3.

So they both won in the same fashion in round 1 with more and better performing top guys.

This round and beyond the results of these various criteria might become more mixed or maybe not.

[Mike G]

Zach Randolph currently has the 5th highest career playoff Win Shares per minute rate, of anyone in NBA/ABA history with as many as 300 playoff minutes. Only Jordan, Mikan, LeBron, and Bobby Wanzer are higher.
http://bkref.com/tiny/sZU0c
Only 2 of those are since the shot clock started ticking.

His career playoff WS/48 (.218) is almost twice his career regular-season rate of .111.

In the NBA in the shotclock era, 30 players have managed a WS/48 rate of .250 or better in a postseason for at least 262 minutes. Jordan did it 6 times, Kareem 5 times, Wilt 3 times; Russell, West, Magic, Duncan, and Marques Johnson twice each.

Other current players (once each): Kobe, Dirk, Shaq, Manu, Pierce, Amar'e, LeBron, Camby, and Chris Paul.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ic9Hz

[EvanZ]

Sample size is really, really small so far for Randolph. 15 playoff games in his career, 8 of them took place over 8 or more years ago. One bad series could quickly change things.

[Crow]

Randolph's standing on career playoff Win Shares per minute rate is worth noting. Thanks for highlighting it.

The closest comparison so far to me appears to be Elton Brand at career .202. For each, 10+ seasons, 2 playoff appearances, one series win, one really strong playoff Win Shares per minute rate. Zac had the better 2nd one.

Will be interesting to see where Zac's WS/m ends up at the ends of this playoffs and in future ones.


For single playoff ratings .25+ WS/m by decade
(based on date during playoffs; same minutes cutoff)

2010s 1
00s 10
90s 6 (all but one were Jordan; he was great but may have also benefited from a lack of superstar .25+ WS/m opponent playoff performances)
80s 11
70s 5 (4 of 5 were Kareem's)
60s 7
50s 3


Drop the standard to .23+
WS/m are there are about 75% more appearances on the list than with .25+.
Jordan gets one more himself and 5 more competitors. Kareem gets 3 more competitors.

by decade over .23 WS/m:

2010s 2
00s 19
90s 12
80s 16
70s 8
60s 17
50s 7


by recent decade over .20 WS/m:

2010s 7
00s 49
90s 37
80s 31

So for .25+ performances the peak times were the 2000s and the 1980s. For .23+ performances the peak times were the 2000s, 80s and 60s. The .2+ performances give the 2000s an advantage on depth over the 80s.

The 90s do a little better in comparison with other decades on .2+ performances but still don't shine as bright as the leading decades by these numbers. The era's defensive rules and lesser enforcement might play a substantial role in this.

[Mike G]

... One bad series could quickly change things.

That's why I like to make note of such a phenomenon, when it's happening.
There has not been anyone in the shot clock era who has wound up a playoff career at such heights, other than Michael; LeBron may manage it.

[EvanZ]

I guess if I were a betting man, then I would bet he regresses to the mean soon. If not this series, maybe the next one.

[Mike G]

As a guessing man, I bet you are right.