2011 Eastern Conf. Playoffs, round 1

[YaoPau]

I think you'd have to go into matchup data, who's guarding who... at the very least lineup matchup data.

Here's the statscube breakdown of Howard vs Collins this year. (You can click the tab for playoffs on the page.) The numbers:

Regular season, Magic vs. Hawks with Howard on the Floor, Magic team plusminus per 36 minutes:
Collins playing: -14.3
Collins benched: +12.3

Playoffs:
Collins playing: -3.3
Collins benched: +7.5

There's an argument to be made that, when Dwight Howard is on the floor, Jason Collins is one of the most valuable players in basketball. When Howard (or another great post player) isn't on the floor, Collins is one of the worst. To mirror Bobbo's point, my guess is a less extreme but still significant dichotomy exists with most players. I see it with the way Tom Thibodeau plays either Kyle Korver or Ronnie Brewer depending on matchups.

[erivera7]

Collins is the one player that's made a big difference in the series. Zaza to a smaller extent.

That being said, the Magic's perimeter attack is due to regress to the mean as they did in Game 5. The question is whether or not they can do it again to win Game 6 and if necessary, a Game 7.

[Mike G]

I was actually surprised to see Collins still in the league at year's end. Maybe the Hawks kept him around as it appeared likely they'd be facing Orlando in round 1 ?
Then again, after seeming to slip to the edge, some of his numbers revived this year, aged 32 -

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 yr      Min    eFG%    PER   Reb%   WS/48
2008   1172    .469    3.4    8.7    .005
2009    422    .314    3.3    9.7   -.018
2010    115    .348    0.9    7.1   -.044
2011    593    .486    5.4   10.4    .049

He hadn't averaged as much as 16 MPG since the '07 playoffs.
This year, 13% of his minutes were vs Orlando, and Atl went 3-1.

As far as the Hawks offense being .030 eFG below their season norm - how much of that do you attribute to Jason Collins being on the floor for ~18mpg,

It's not so much that he's seriously damaging their offense, but if he were out there setting great picks or anything else, it should show up in better shooting from other players.
You're right, Orl held season opponents to .023 below league avg eFG%. I was just looking for signs that Collins is more than a Zero (or negative) in the Atl offense.

[Mike G]

Heat 4 , Sixers 1
avg score 94.0 - 86.6
Pythagorean wins - 3.74 - 1.26
eWins - 3.12 - 1.88

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.19  James,LeBron    Mia   42   .571   24.9   9.5   6.3   1.5   .7   1.2   .7   2.70
1.06  Wade,Dwyane     Mia   38   .516   25.3   8.5   6.2   1.7  1.4   2.7  1.9   2.68
.64   Bosh,Chris      Mia   40   .532   20.2   8.6    .9   1.8   .9   1.6  1.1   1.54
.43   Holiday,Jrue    Phl   37   .542   15.4   3.6   5.0   2.0  2.0   2.2   .4   1.12
.39   Iguodala,Andre  Phl   36   .483   12.1   6.8   6.3   3.2  1.0   2.8   .4   1.02

.38   Brand,Elton     Phl   37   .569   15.1   8.0    .5   4.2   .4    .8  1.2    .98
.21  Ilgauskas,Zydrun Mia   13   .565   16.9  14.0    .7   4.7   .0   1.7  1.2   1.52
.19   Young,Thaddeus  Phl   25   .432   14.1   7.4   1.0   3.5  1.1   1.9   .3    .73
.18   Williams,Lou    Phl   26   .439   13.5   2.0   3.6   1.6  1.3   1.0   .0    .65
.17   Turner,Evan     Phl   19   .513   12.1   7.6   1.3   3.1  1.0    .0   .3    .86

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   24   .514   11.0   2.6   3.9   3.9  1.9   1.1   .0    .53
.10   Hawes,Spencer   Phl   20   .371    8.2   7.0   3.3   4.2   .0    .8   .8    .48
.09   Jones,James     Mia   24   .633   10.5   6.4    .7   2.2   .6    .8   .3    .37
.05   Meeks,Jodie     Phl   25   .574   10.9   2.9   1.1   1.8   .9    .6   .0    .19
.01   Battie,Tony     Phl    8   .438    4.7   8.1    .0   4.2   .0    .8  2.5    .09

.01  Speights,Marrees Phl    4   .167    2.9   9.3   1.6   6.5   .0    .0  1.6    .17
-.04  House,Eddie     Mia    4   .167    2.1   1.9    .0   3.5  1.8   3.5   .0  -1.18
-.08  Anthony,Joel    Mia   31   .405    3.3   6.1    .3   2.0   .2    .9  1.5   -.25
-.09  Bibby,Mike      Mia   20   .286    4.5   4.8   2.0   1.5   .0   2.3   .4   -.42

Mia shot .516, Phl .480
Mia won on the boards 47.2 - 40.6

Side by side, ranked by minutes per game, eWins per 480 (avg = 1), PER (avg = 15), and WS/48 (avg = .1)

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  Miami    mpg   e480   PER   WS/48        Philly    mpg   e480   PER   WS/48
Lebron      42   2.70   29.7   .340      Holiday,Jrue 37   1.12   17.6   .095
Bosh,Chris  40   1.54   20.9   .188      Brand,Elton  37    .98   17.8   .132
Wade,Dwyane 38   2.68   27.5   .237      Iguodala     36   1.02   14.7   .045
Anthony,Jo  31   -.25    6.4   .068      Williams,Lou 26    .65   13.2   .015
Chalmers    24    .53   11.3   .127      Young,Thad   25    .73   14.1  -.020
Jones,James 24    .37   13.4   .163      Meeks,Jodie  25    .19   11.7   .073
Bibby,Mike  20   -.42   -1.3  -.117      Hawes,Sp     20    .48    8.3  -.029
Ilgauskas   13   1.52   20.4   .213      Turner,Evan  19    .86   17.6   .127
House,Eddie  4  -1.18   -9.9  -.301      Battie,Tony   8    .09    8.4   .024
 per game  237    .62   17.5   .823       per game   234    .38   14.6   .288
                              

[Mike G]

Hawks 4 , Magic 2
Avg score : Orl 88.7 - 86.8 Atl
Pythagorean wins : Orl 3.41 - 2.59 Atl
eWins : 3.21 - 2.79

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.65  Howard,Dwight   Orl   43   .648   33.2  14.9    .4   3.6   .6   4.7  1.6   3.06
.76   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   30   .564   27.8   2.0   3.2   1.9   .8   1.3   .6   2.03
.62   Nelson,Jameer   Orl   36   .444   13.9   4.8   6.0   2.4  2.1   1.4   .0   1.39
.59   Horford,Al      Atl   40   .444   11.0   9.9   3.6   2.6   .5   1.2   .9   1.19
.58   Smith,Josh      Atl   35   .453   16.1   9.2   2.6   3.8   .9   2.7  1.1   1.34

.56   Johnson,Joe     Atl   41   .458   16.8   6.1   3.3   1.3   .4   2.4   .1   1.10
.37   Hinrich,Kirk    Atl   29   .581   15.2   3.1   3.5   4.5  1.5    .9   .4   1.02
.27   Arenas,Gilbert  Orl   13   .478   19.4   6.3   5.5   5.5   .4   2.4   .4   1.59
.22   Bass,Brandon    Orl   23   .494   12.7   7.6    .6   1.9   .8   1.9  1.3    .77
.22   Turkoglu,Hedo   Orl   35   .367    8.6   3.8   4.6   3.2  1.4   1.2   .2    .50

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17  Richardson,Jason Orl   26   .455   11.3   5.5   1.7   4.1   .7    .7   .5    .54
.16   Williams,Marvin Atl   18   .655   14.5   4.7   1.5   2.7  2.1   2.4   .3    .72
.03  Richardson,Quent Orl   16   .719    8.9   5.7    .8   3.0   .3    .7   .3    .16
.02   Redick,J.J.     Orl   20   .417   10.6   3.4   1.9   2.2   .3   1.9   .3    .06
.01   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   25   .424    4.9   6.9    .8   3.6  1.1    .2   .2    .03

-.01  Pachulia,Zaza   Atl   16   .500    4.7   6.9   2.7   6.6   .3   1.0   .3   -.03
-.03  Powell,Josh     Atl    6   .500    4.8   5.9    .8   6.4   .0    .8   .0   -.43
-.04 Armstrong,Hilton Atl    4   .250     .8   3.8    .0   8.5  2.4   1.2   .0   -.89
-.15  Collins,Jason   Atl   17   .400    2.6   4.2    .4   8.0  1.8   1.8   .7   -.69

Atl shot .496 and Orl .494
Reb 42.3 - 38.5, Orl

[EvanZ]

Too bad for Orlando PyWins don't always equal real wins.

[Mike G]

The 3 closest games all went to Atl -- by 3, by 3, and by 4.
Checking this page - http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2011.html
and alongside eWins and eW/480, here are WS, WS/48, and PER.

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   Atlanta      mpg  eWins  e480   PER    WS/48   WS
Johnson,Joe      41   .56   1.10   13.6   .029   .15
Horford,Al       40   .59   1.19   14.0   .099   .49
Smith,Josh       35   .58   1.34   12.8   .028   .12
Crawford,Jamal   30   .76   2.03   24.1   .208   .78
Hinrich,Kirk     29   .37   1.02   14.8   .153   .55

Williams,Marvin  18   .16    .72   15.7   .142   .32
Collins,Jason    17  -.15   -.69     .7   .006   .01
Pachulia,Zaza    16  -.01   -.03    6.7   .112   .23
Powell,Josh       6  -.03   -.43    3.7   .059   .05
Armstrong,Hilton  4  -.04   -.89   -1.2   .014   .01

   total        236  2.79          13.27        2.71
                  
  Orlando       mpg  eWins  e480    PER   WS/48   WS
Howard,Dwight    43  1.65   3.06   26.6   .243  1.31
Nelson,Jameer    36   .62   1.39   15.8   .128   .58
Turkoglu,Hedo    35   .22    .50    7.2   .021   .09
Richardson,Jason 26   .17    .54    9.9   .101   .32
Anderson,Ryan    25   .01    .03    8.5   .118   .36

Bass,Brandon     23   .22    .77   13.5   .106   .31
Redick,J.J.      20   .02    .06    6.0  -.019  -.05
Richardson,Quent 16   .03    .16   10.9   .164   .33
Arenas,Gilbert   13   .27   1.59   16.4   .111   .19

   total        237  3.21          13.75        3.44

Should PER sum to 15.0 in a playoff series?