Before the first round is truly distant history, here are overachievers from that era. Relative to their regular seasons.
Same format as 'most improved' for the season, except that players' playoff rates (e480) are multiplied by 1.175, to zero out the net improvement (in total eWins).
In other words, in the first round the average player's win production is 17.5% less than in the season, due to better than average competition.
Ranked by suspected wins added, above and beyond expectations.
Code: Select all
eW+ 1st round tm MPG Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 RS: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.51 Crawford,Jamal Atl 30 .571 28.5 2.1 3.7 2.02 .536 16.8 2.1 3.3 .73
.46 Paul,Chris NO 41 .663 27.3 6.3 10.2 2.64 .566 18.7 4.8 10.0 2.04
.45 Kidd,Jason Dal 34 .649 17.7 7.0 7.5 2.07 .496 9.1 5.3 9.8 1.17
.33 Howard,Dwight Orl 42 .652 32.5 15.0 .2 2.82 .594 26.7 15.4 1.5 2.57
.29 Rondo,Rajon Bos 42 .507 18.3 6.5 11.3 1.98 .490 11.5 4.8 12.0 1.49
.27 Wade,Dwyane Mia 38 .516 25.3 8.5 6.2 2.68 .568 29.0 7.1 5.2 2.46
.26 Durant,Kevin Okl 42 .611 30.9 4.9 3.3 2.32 .576 28.4 7.0 2.7 2.13
.25 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 39 .528 29.6 8.2 2.8 2.47 .600 28.9 8.2 3.0 2.28
.24 Allen,Ray Bos 40 .752 25.7 4.2 2.1 1.72 .607 21.0 3.9 3.0 1.30
.24 Artest,Ron LA 33 .620 17.5 6.9 1.8 1.08 .480 11.1 4.4 2.9 .58
eW+ 1st round tm MPG Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 RS: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.22 Arenas,Gilbert Orl 16 .474 22.2 6.0 6.3 1.89 .438 11.5 3.9 5.1 .50
.22 Ariza,Trevor NO 40 .482 14.0 7.0 3.2 1.09 .480 12.2 6.6 2.3 .75
.19 Hill,George SA 30 .582 16.5 5.7 2.9 1.13 .576 15.1 3.3 3.2 .74
.18 Miller,Andre Por 34 .596 22.1 3.8 5.8 1.66 .520 15.7 4.9 8.2 1.42
.18 Jeffries,Jared NY 21 .500 9.4 8.4 .4 .76 .395 2.8 6.1 1.9 -.12
.17 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .511 29.1 4.6 6.0 2.44 .540 28.6 4.6 8.2 2.45
.17 James,Lebron Mia 42 .571 24.9 9.5 6.3 2.70 .581 29.4 7.9 7.6 2.79
.17 Gasol,Marc Mem 40 .553 14.3 11.5 2.6 1.42 .567 15.3 9.2 2.9 1.27
.17 Fisher,Derek LA 34 .610 13.1 3.3 4.2 .69 .481 9.4 2.7 4.0 .34
.17 Granger,Danny Ind 37 .551 22.5 5.5 3.1 1.62 .544 22.6 5.9 2.7 1.47
Note that just maintaining your RS rate is equivalent to 'improvement' in the postseason.
Here are the biggest 1st-round flops:
Code: Select all
eW+ 1st round tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 RS: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.16 Duncan,Tim SA 35 .508 13.3 11.7 3.0 1.39 .529 18.8 12.8 3.8 2.07
-.17 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 11 .231 2.0 6.2 .0 -.45 .577 14.0 9.9 .5 .90
-.17 Horford,Al Atl 39 .443 11.5 9.3 3.3 1.14 .580 18.4 10.8 3.6 1.77
-.18 Fields,Landry NY 18 .194 2.2 2.8 2.6 -.33 .590 12.1 7.8 2.4 .81
-.18 Bibby,Mike Mia 20 .286 4.5 4.8 2.0 -.42 .597 11.5 3.3 3.8 .37
-.18 Chandler,Wilson Den 23 .358 5.2 7.0 .7 .05 .500 14.6 6.5 2.2 .82
-.18 Gasol,Pau LA 36 .492 13.6 8.4 4.7 1.33 .577 21.5 10.8 3.6 2.04
-.20 Batum,Nicolas Por 28 .533 12.0 2.7 1.4 .25 .557 16.3 6.0 1.9 .99
-.21 Jefferson,Richar SA 33 .565 8.3 5.6 1.2 .11 .602 15.5 5.1 1.7 .74
-.21 Hansbrough,Tyler Ind 33 .406 11.1 6.0 1.2 .37 .519 17.4 8.5 .9 1.06
eW+ 1st round tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 RS: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.22 Turkoglu,Hedo Orl 34 .328 7.4 4.4 5.1 .43 .543 14.1 5.5 6.1 1.12
-.23 Wallace,Gerald Por 39 .492 11.5 8.9 2.6 .79 .580 18.5 8.8 2.6 1.50
-.25 Barea,Jose Juan Dal 18 .333 8.0 1.8 4.4 -.30 .529 15.7 3.3 6.5 .96
-.29 Stoudemire,Amare NY 34 .433 14.7 8.9 1.8 .77 .553 25.3 8.4 2.8 1.93
-.30 Belinelli,Marco NO 29 .452 9.8 1.1 .9 -.19 .555 18.0 3.3 1.8 .77
-.30 Boozer,Carlos Chi 30 .407 11.7 13.4 2.2 .98 .534 23.5 12.8 3.2 2.10
-.32 Matthews,Wesley Por 33 .602 14.2 1.2 1.0 .12 .572 19.8 3.9 2.2 1.08
-.32 Anderson,Ryan Orl 25 .411 5.5 7.1 1.0 .13 .585 18.8 9.3 1.3 1.41
-.37 Okafor,Emeka NO 31 .569 9.3 6.8 .0 .06 .570 14.1 12.8 .7 1.20
The biggest disappointers are at bottom.
Of these 19, 6 were on round1 winners; only JJ Barea has reversed his fortunes so far in round 2.
I also count 12 of 20 overachievers (but 8 of top 10) moving on.
Several players who were traded midseason are here, with season stats from their latest team.
Finally getting into the postseason after 484 games, Okafor lands solidly at the bottom of this list. His RS Blk% of 4.6 was just 2.6 in playoffs. His PER of 16.0 dropped to 9.3; WS/48 from .136 to .016