Forecasting career totals from current totals and player age

[Mike G]

Starting with guards -- those listed at basketball-reference.com as G or G-F -- I've grabbed the top 100 Win Shares of retired players, and their career totals, through age 26, through age 27, etc. These are also limited to careers commencing 1978 or later.
Here's a preliminary summary of the fraction of players' career total in each category, at each age.
These are in "parts per thousand", so 428 = .428 = 42.8%

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Age  Min    FG   3fg    FT   ORb   DRb   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk    TO    PF   Pts   WS
26   428   468   286   473   497   420   440   453   473   502   483   453   459   424
27   509   551   364   563   571   496   516   539   554   588   562   533   543   517
28   587   633   456   649   649   579   597   622   628   667   642   609   626   603
29   665   710   541   729   737   668   686   705   718   742   718   685   704   688

30   737   777   634   795   816   743   762   761   783   819   781   756   773   752
31   797   832   707   849   858   799   815   823   835   858   836   814   829   815
32   855   884   782   902   895   852   863   883   882   897   887   863   882   873
33   904   923   848   935   933   904   911   922   920   941   923   907   921   916
34   938   951   900   959   959   937   943   950   950   966   951   939   950   948

35   959   965   933   972   973   958   962   964   966   981   964   961   965   965
36   979   983   975   983   986   978   980   980   982   984   982   981   983   980
37   989   991   988   990   993   988   989   989   990   991   990   990   990   989
38   995   996   996   995   997   995   995   995   995   996   996   996   996   995

By age 39, every guard in the era has been at 100% of his career totals, except for Stockton; and he isn't very typical.

Suspecting this example won't be illustrative of anything, Ray Allen's career totals and his ultimate career projection if he's on an average 35 YO guard trajectory:

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Ray Allen      35                           
Min      FG     3fg    FT     ORb    DRb    Ast    Stl   Blk    Pts     WS
40808   7809   2612   4056   1153   3555   3974   1281   213   22286   130.9
42551   8090   2799   4173   1185   3713   4124   1327   217   23099   135.6

His 2612 3-point goals have been divided by .933 to arrive at 2799. That's just another 187 treys, and he hit 168 last year.
I guess much depends on whether there's a season, or whether he fast-forwards to age 37.
He's currently 29th in NBA/ABA points, and 23,099 moves him up just one spot, which is Nowitzki's. He still falls a few short of Baylor.

Supposing no 2012 season, Chris Paul will have the same totals going into his 27th year as he now has at 25.

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Chris Paul      25-26                        
Min      FG     3fg    FT    ORb    DRb    Ast    Stl   Blk   Pts     WS
15761   2793    379   1971   304   1647   4228   1010   36    7936    76.4
36849   5970   1324   4165   611   3924   9327   2137   72   17287   180.3

A 180 Win Share career would be 10th all-time, ahead of Moses, Barkley, Robinson ... And higher if you discount Erving and Gilmore's ABA stats.
His 9327 assists would be 6th (if Nash doesn't get any more), and 2137 steals ranks merely 10th (after Olajuwon).

Those are some age extremes; how about DWade?

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Dwyane Wade      29                        
Min      FG    3fg    FT    ORb    DRb    Ast    Stl   Blk    Pts     WS
20541   4876   309   3847   717   2066   3472    973   548   13908    82.6
30880   6869   571   5277   973   3093   4925   1356   738   19744   120.1

Hard to think of his career as 70% over. But if so, he winds up between Hayes and Buck Willams in NBA RS WS, which is currently #34: Barely ahead of LeBron James now.

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Kobe Bryant      32                        
Min      FG     3fg    FT     ORb    DRb    Ast    Stl   Blk    Pts     WS
40145   9712   1418   7026   1298   4531   5154   1653   576   27868   156.3
46942  10988   1813   7791   1450   5318   5835   1873   642   31601   179.0

This puts Kobe's WS just behind the prediction for Paul, which is also just behind Shaq.
31,601 points is just ahead of Wilt, behind only Kareem, Malone, and Jordan (by 691).

[Mike G]

More 26 and 27-year old guards, career RS totals, current and projected

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26      Deron Williams                        
Min      FG     3fg    FT    ORb    DRb    Ast   Stl   Blk    Pts    WS
16088   2784    527   1661   224   1238   4156   476   104    7756   47.3
37614   5950   1841   3510   450   2949   9168  1007   207   16895  111.6

26      Brandon Roy                        
11439   2213    322   1359   344   1030   1494   332    76    6107   37.5
26745   4730   1125   2872   692   2454   3296   702   152   13303   88.5

27      Ben Gordon                        
16339   3221    952   1754   292   1218   1529   415    84    9148   32.3
32116   5845   2612   3114   511   2456   2837   749   143   16836   62.5

27      Devin Harris 
Min      FG     3fg    FT    ORb    DRb    Ast   Stl   Blk    Pts    WS
13520   2114    301   1849   198   1001   2413   579   104    6378   32.9
26575   3836    826   3283   347   2019   4477  1044   177   11738   63.7

27      Andre Iguodala                        
21006   3014    487   2136   603   2609   2652   969   280    8651   53.9
41290   5469   1336   3792  1056   5261   4920  1748   476   15921  104.3

27      Kevin Martin                        
13585   2412    666   2556   290   1249    868   418    57    8046   42.6
26703   4377   1827   4538   508   2519   1610   754    97   14808   82.4

DWill's 9168 projected assists are more than Isiah or Payton, 6th alltime.
I never noticed what a 3-point ace Ben Gordon has been. Ray Allen has 2612 threes!
If Iguodala gets that many WS in Philly, he's close to #2 in franchise history.

[Mike G]

Guards 28 and 29 with their current and projected totals.

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28      Jameer Nelson                        
Min      FG     3fg    FT    ORb    DRb    Ast   Stl  Blk    Pts    WS
13176   2250    530    836   252   1165   2287   458   29   5866   34.7
22462   3556   1162   1288   388   2013   3678   729   44   9365   57.6

28      Tony Parker                        
24591   4965    345   2206   322   1954   4285   725   55  12481   73.7
41922   7847    756   3398   496   3377   6891  1154   83  19926  122.3

28      Mo Williams                        
16419   2809    704   1137   290   1366   2702   509   76   7459   30.0
27991   4439   1543   1751   447   2361   4346   810  114  11908   49.8

29      Gilbert Arenas  
Min      FG     3fg    FT    ORb    DRb    Ast   Stl  Blk   Pts     WS 
19140   3696   1066   2872   442   1708   2891   873  133  11330   51.0
28774   5207   1970   3940   600   2557   4101  1217  179  16084   74.2

29      Jose Calderon                        
11837   1618    318    626   154    895   2969   394   36   4180   32.0
17795   2279    588    859   209   1340   4212   549   49   5934   46.5

29      Joe Johnson                        
28348   5250   1156   1972   764   2495   3463   753  180  13628   54.9
42616   7396   2136   2705  1037   3736   4912  1049  243  19346   79.8

[huevonkiller]

This is really cool.

[Mike G]

Who knew ? ...
Kobe Bryant has scored more points than anyone else through age 32, and he'll lead all through age 33 even if he doesn't score a point this year.
At age 26, LeBron James has scored more points than anyone else through age 27, NBA plus ABA, regular seasons.
Carmelo Anthony trails only LeBron in points thru age 26.

Jason Kidd is 2nd alltime in both assists and steals through age 38. After Stockton in both categories.
Chris Paul is 3rd in assists and 2nd in steals by age 25.
Russell Westbrook is 5th in career assists thru age 22. (Marbury is 1st)
Jrue Holiday is 3rd in assists and 2nd in steals among all 21-year olds.

At 25, Dwight Howard is #1 in blocks (since 1974) and #2 in rebounds, to Moses Malone, through the same age.
Josh Smith was the alltime leader in blocks thru age 24, but this year slid to 3rd, after Dwight and Artis Gilmore, at 25.

[Crow]

Those are some interesting observations from the projections.

Will any of Paul, Westbrook and Holiday actually end up in the top 5 on assists all-time? One seems a bit more likely than two to me and I really doubt all three will.

I am not surprised Josh Smith slid and I kinda doubt he gets into the top 10 all-time or far up it when it is all done.

[Mike G]

These aren't from the projections, just seemed related enough to not start another thread.
In both studies, a complicating factor is that minutes are more related than age, to future productions.
If early starts don't mean early end to careers, we'd guess Kobe is projected to end up as the most prolific scorer of all time.
Unless LeBron gets there first.

[Mike G]

There are 26 players who have ever been in the top 10 in assists thru a given age, and 13 have ever been in the top 5.

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rank at age:    20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  32  34  36  38
John Stockton                            9   4   3   3   2   1   1   1   1
Jason Kidd                       9   9  10   7   6   6   5   5   3   2   2
Mark Jackson                                     9   9   9   6   6   5   3
Magic Johnson    8  10   8   5   4   2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2   3   4
Oscar Robertson                      8   8   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   5

Steve Nash                                                       8   7   6
Isiah Thomas     7   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   5   6   7
Gary Payton                                                      7   8   8
Rod Strickland                                              10       9   9
Maurice Cheeks                                               9   9  10  10

rank at age:    20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  32  34  
Andre Miller                                                    10      
Kevin Johnson                6   6   5   5   6   7   7   6   7         
Stephon Marbury  1   1   1   3   2   4   3   3   4   5   7   8         
Norm Nixon                                       8   8   8            
Baron Davis          9   9                      10  10  10
            
LeBron James     2   2   4   4   5   6   4   8                     
Chris Paul       5   4   3   2   3   3   6   9                     
Deron Williams              10   8   7   7  10                     
Tony Parker      4   5   7   8  10  10                           
Rajon Rondo                  7   7   
 
rank at age:    20  21  22  23                          
Mike Bibby           7   6   9                                 
Russell Westbrook    6   5                    
Derrick Rose     9   8  10                                    
Jrue Holiday     3                                          
John Wall        6                                          
Kobe Bryant     10                                          

Only Magic and Isiah are in the top 10 through age 23 and also at the end.

[Crow]

These aren't from the projections ...

Right. I misstated, perhaps because I was thinking about their future totals.




Only Magic of the current top 5 all-time was top 5 by age on assists before age 27.
He is the only 1 of the 7 guys so far who were top 5 at some point by age on assists thru age 25 to end up there all-time as of now.