Contender X won't win the title unless they change this...

[Crow]

I don't know much about the Wizards. I agree they they should be willing to trade just about anyone. I'd probably listen to offers for Wall if they got a strong one (possibly involving multiple players) but they won't.

If they stick with basically who they have now, what would you think Kevin about emphasizing these lineups:


Wall-Young-Lewis-Blatche-McGee up to 15 minutes

Wall-Young-Lewis-Booker-Blatche up to 13 minutes

Wall-Young-Singleton-Blatche-McGee up to 10 minutes

Mack-Crawford-Lewis-Booker-McGee up to 10 minutes

And sprinkle in a modest amount of Jeffers and Vesely when the above lineups aren't working or particular players are having off nights or seeing bad match-ups (and some others in blowouts)?

[huevonkiller]

Wade-James was something like +13 per 100 possessions in the regular season but only about +2 per 100 possessions in the playoffs overall. And against Dallas they were -17 overall for the series. Surprising, though a good share of those minutes were with Bibby who had by far the worst raw +/- rate of any Miami rotation regular. They probably won't win a title if Wade-James is only slightly positive or goes negative against the toughest opponents. It is surprising that they got that far this time given these numbers.

To be fair, both Bibby and Chambers with Wade-James were good in the regular season and it was not clearcut which to favor in the playoffs.

Chalmers had modestly positive +/- with both on the court with him in the playoffs but it was about twice as good when he was out there with just one or none. He was about equally good with each of the superstars.

Was the problem directly with Wade-James together? Probably not for the playoffs as a whole. One lineup was big Z was -69 on its own, without that lineup Wade-James was probably fairly strong. They properly stopped using it after the round 2.

The problem in the Dallas series was something different. From the lineup data at BV it appears that Dallas did best against Wade-James when they had a small SG out there against Wade and Marion (or Stevenson) on James and Chandler inside. They seemed to rip the Heat more with their offense than defense though both were generally good for the big minute match-ups.

Even with this quick analysis from the lineup stats it still might be educational if someone reviewed that tape in detail as well and wrote about it. Here or elsewhere. There might have been some talk about this at the time but an careful overall retrospective might find things to add.

It looked like all season the Mavs bothered the Heat. Just look at the regular season. That Zone defense gave them fits because they cannot rebound well and their shooters were hurt. Also Bibby is a travesty just in general.

In the future I think Miami needs to get slightly better rebounding (maybe from Chris Bosh or another serviceable Big) and that's pretty much it. Anyone is better than Mike Bibby and the Heat can easily win a title if LeBron gets a better matchup. I predict that the Heat's depth will improve somewhat too.

I would love to see Joel Anthony phased out of the lineup. Hollinger tore into Joel recently for being the worst offensive player in the NBA.

[kjb]

I don't know much about the Wizards. I agree they they should be willing to trade just about anyone. I'd probably listen to offers for Wall if they got a strong one (possibly involving multiple players) but they won't.

If they stick with basically who they have now, what would you think Kevin about emphasizing these lineups:


Wall-Young-Lewis-Blatche-McGee up to 15 minutes

Wall-Young-Lewis-Booker-Blatche up to 13 minutes

Wall-Young-Singleton-Blatche-McGee up to 10 minutes

Mack-Crawford-Lewis-Booker-McGee up to 10 minutes

And sprinkle in a modest amount of Jeffers and Vesely when the above lineups aren't working or particular players are having off nights or seeing bad match-ups (and some others in blowouts)?

Just getting back to this thread.

In my view, everyone on the roster is expendable, with the possible exception of Wall. And I'd at least listen to offers for Wall.

Those lineups are worth a try, I guess. Probably about as good they're going to be. I'm actually in favor of letting Young depart, unless they can re-sign him very cheap. Or unless they can do something creative with their cap space and front load the deal so that Young's future cap numbers are tiny. Except, of course, I don't trust Young to continue working hard if he gets most of his money up front. Which sorta brings me back to "let him leave."

I'm resigned to the team giving Blatche yet another opportunity to become a quality player. I fully expect him to be as erratic, lazy and petulant as he's been in previous years. The excuse-making for this season is already underway. Apparently a shoulder injury from last season is now 75-80%. The initial injury was in early March. After hurting it March 8, he missed 3 weeks before returning to action to play 9 more games. He had some excellent games during that 9-game stretch. Blatche apologists point to that late-season performance as evidence that he's "turning the corner." Others of us dubbed him April Fool's Dray. In my Washington Post blog, I wrote in early January that the Wizards needed to trade him. I still think that. But, he's going to get another shot.

As for Mike's point -- the Wizards parlayed Kwame Brown into Caron Butler. I think you'll find that trade in the NBA glossary under "trading bad players for good." More seriously: The Wizards should continue to have high draft picks, and they have a TON of cap space next offseason. I'm hoping they can draft well and add a major free agent. Then some of the youngsters might be able to fill other roles. That said, I was not thrilled with their most recent draft. And they're not going after any big free agents. So, expect the Wizards to be awful again this year.

[Crow]

Thanks for the further analysis regarding the Wizards and Heat.

[Crow]

duplicate post removed

[EvanZ]

I can't remember but I'm guessing WAS is one of the teams without a stats department.

[Crow]

I believe they had / have Joe Sill for the last year or two. He has a very strong quant background and knows RAPM. Didn't hear him talk a lot about basketball here before getting hired though to gauge that side of the ledger.

[kjb]

Wizards have an interesting relationship with stats. They used a stat consultant for several years -- a guy who's been around for awhile and actually has a book out (not DeanO). The book's a bit older now. Tommy Sheppard and Milt Newton pay attention to stats. I know Tommy's been to the Sloan conference. I know he's read Dean's book.

I know 100% for sure they used a defensive stats consultant for a brief time a few years back.

Last year, I'd heard they were dabbling in adjusted plus/minus -- I'd heard it was Wayne Winston, not Joe Sill though. Do they work together maybe?

APM played a role in their decision to make the trade that brought them Yi. I thought Yi would be awful, but APM suggested he was one of NJ's more valuable players the previous year. I think I was proven correct.

I think they could make better use of stats than they do (which I've communicated to them).

[Crow]

nbastuffer has Sill working with the Wizards. Joe said something about being a Wizards fan at his site as well.

[kjb]

Interesting. I'd missed that. I know Winston did some stuff for them. I hope Joe can help.

[Crow]

Yi has always been negative on traditional APM at basketballvalue too (at least at season end), though his 2009-10 rating on that metric was his career best and just barely negative. He had an almost +3 raw +/- on /off that season before the trade, for what that is worth. Yi has always been -2 or worse of Jerry's RAPM. He was almost -1 on Joe Sill's multi-season RAPM, but +0.1 in 2009-10. Not sure how he rated on Wayne's metric.

On traditional APM at basketballvalue Yi had improved by about 3 points two years in a row for an awful -6 his rookie season. He apparently was estimated to be improving modestly year to year on Sill's RAPM too. On Jerry's RAPM he drifted down slightly.

I try to be cautious using these numbers- especially when there is divergence; but consult all the versions I can see and try to interpret what I find alongside non-APM metrics. I wouldn't have been much for acquiring Yi (traditional APM is not enough), not that it mattered a lot though. It was a minor gamble for a big man who has some scoring ability.

I give Jerry's RAPM more weight / credence than traditional APM. In this case it seems to be about right about him, to me.




From a non-APM perspective, I noticed Mystic's SPM gives him good and improving ratings.

http://bbmetrics.wordpress.com/


Mystic recently let me know he had posted 15 years worth of his SPM at his website. If interested in box-score based metrics. check it out for other players.

[Mike G]

... I thought Yi would be awful, but APM suggested he was one of NJ's more valuable players the previous year. I think I was proven correct.
...

Both could be right. The Nets of 2009-10 were one of the worst teams in history, so being one of their better players isn't saying much.
Only 2 players with more eWins on that team -- Lopez and Harris -- Yi is 3rd to 5th "best". Also 4th or 5th per minute, after Humphries.

At age 22, about a median NBA player with .79 eW/484 min for NJ. (That's 79% of avg.)
With the Wiz, he dropped to .29 eW/484, posting career low rates in Sco, Reb, Ast, and Blk.

[kjb]

Mike: Your point is similar to one I made to one of my friends in the Wizards' front office when they acquired Yi. Being "most valuable" on that Nets team seems like the very definition of "faint praise."

[Crow]

Yi was second best on 1 year traditional APM for the 2009-10 Nets.

4th best on team for that metric for 2010-11 APM for the Wizards and maybe 6th (at most) on Jerry's RAPM.

[erivera7]

Fire Otis Smith.