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Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:51 am
by Crow
Thanks for the performance updates.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:28 pm
by Mike G
yrwelcome. Updates will be edits to this post for a while.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.57 5.84 .53 538R 6.35 7.59 .47
DRKO 5.10 6.41 .52 538E 6.47 8.58 .28
Crow 5.40 6.77 .56 TmRk 6.53 8.02 .43
dtka 5.41 6.48 .56 MPra 6.60 8.23 .51
ncs. 5.46 6.58 .50 vegas 6.60 8.13 .43
trzu 5.47 6.88 .56 BIPM 6.62 7.69 .63
EBPI 5.65 6.98 .48 nuFi 6.69 8.43 .40
avg. 5.66 6.68 .53 4141 6.72 8.40
LEBR 5.77 6.70 .50 AnBa 7.39 8.58 .44
22Re 5.86 7.12 .30 EExp 7.59 8.93 .36
vzro 5.99 7.06 .44 2022 8.06 9.78 .30
emin 5.99 7.45 .46
The
avg. error is close to the lowest of the season.
UPDATE Dec. 28 -- major shuffling overnight.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.45 5.87 .54 BIPM 6.41 7.57 .65
DRKO 5.17 6.45 .52 538R 6.41 7.63 .46
ncs. 5.34 6.60 .50 TmRk 6.42 7.98 .43
dtka 5.35 6.51 .56 vegas 6.48 8.10 .44
trzu 5.37 6.96 .55 nuFi 6.56 8.30 .41
Crow 5.46 6.90 .54 538E 6.58 8.65 .27
avg. 5.52 6.67 .53 MPra 6.69 8.33 .50
EBPI 5.57 6.97 .48 4141 6.76 8.46
LEBR 5.71 6.68 .51 AnBa 7.28 8.54 .44
22Re 5.81 7.17 .30 EExp 7.63 8.88 .37
vzro 5.84 6.96 .45 2022 8.18 9.78 .30
emin 5.86 7.36 .47
UPdate as of Jan.2 -- smallest errors in a while:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.29 5.65 .55 BIPM 6.15 7.33 .67
ncs. 5.25 6.40 .52 538R 6.35 7.49 .48
dtka 5.26 6.39 .57 TmRk 6.44 7.88 .44
EBPI 5.40 6.79 .50 nuFi 6.49 8.05 .44
Crow 5.42 6.91 .54 vegas 6.51 8.02 .44
DRKO 5.43 6.40 .52 4141 6.57 8.39
avg. 5.47 6.52 .54 538E 6.60 8.45 .29
LEBR 5.48 6.58 .51 MPra 6.96 8.39 .49
trzu 5.56 6.99 .55 AnBa 7.08 8.36 .46
vzro 5.68 6.71 .48 EExp 7.55 8.77 .38
22Re 5.78 6.96 .31 2022 8.16 9.69 .31
emin 5.88 7.28 .48
UPDATE Jan.6
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.53 5.90 .53 22Re 6.10 7.23 .29
dtka 5.41 6.41 .57 BIPM 6.45 7.60 .64
avg. 5.43 6.43 .55 TmRk 6.50 8.01 .43
LEBR 5.49 6.67 .51 4141 6.56 8.48
ncs. 5.55 6.65 .50 vegas 6.57 8.13 .43
Crow 5.61 7.09 .52 538R 6.60 7.66 .46
EBPI 5.68 6.99 .48 nuFi 6.84 8.22 .42
DRKO 5.69 6.57 .50 MPra 6.87 8.31 .50
trzu 5.73 7.13 .53 538E 7.02 8.70 .27
vzro 5.89 6.85 .47 AnBa 7.08 8.44 .45
emin 5.99 7.35 .48 EExp 7.57 8.92 .36
UPDATE Jan.12
Pelton has lost ~40% of his lead in a week; and the top-to-bottom difference is smallest in 4 weeks.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.89 6.03 .52 22Re 6.34 7.41 .28
dtka 5.52 6.57 .56 BIPM 6.41 7.65 .63
LEBR 5.52 6.73 .50 4141 6.55 8.60
avgA 5.55 6.59 .53 538R 6.56 7.74 .45
ncs. 5.67 6.73 .49 vegas 6.60 8.33 .41
Crow 5.70 7.21 .51 TmRk 6.61 8.20 .41
DRKO 5.85 6.74 .49 MPra 6.82 8.44 .48
trzu 5.87 7.34 .51 nuFi 6.90 8.35 .41
EBPI 5.91 7.22 .45 AnBa 7.16 8.66 .43
emin 6.01 7.54 .46 538E 7.37 8.84 .26
vzro 6.09 6.97 .46 EExp 7.57 9.09 .35
UPDATE Jan. 19
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.98 6.46 .49 538R 6.31 7.75 .46
dtka 5.54 6.68 .55 22Re 6.47 7.64 .28
avgA 5.74 6.84 .52 4141 6.61 8.94
LEBR 5.77 6.92 .49 BIPM 6.64 8.01 .59
ncs. 5.83 7.15 .45 MPra 6.76 8.46 .48
Crow 5.84 7.33 .50 vegas 6.82 8.58 .39
trzu 5.93 7.54 .49 TmRk 6.88 8.50 .39
DRKO 5.94 7.10 .46 nuFi 7.03 8.65 .39
EBPI 5.95 7.48 .44 AnBa 7.23 8.89 .41
vzro 6.06 7.17 .45 538E 7.44 8.97 .26
emin 6.25 7.87 .43 EExp 7.63 9.14 .35
The sharp gap has disappeared, between top half and bottom half.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2022 2:41 am
by Crow
Up a couple of tenths, down a couple of tenths. Will need to climb again, hopefully higher. Lots of games left.
Tough competition. 1 win error on average from top is pretty good.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:49 pm
by Crow
.2 from contest lead at last check. What will next update show?
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:38 pm
by Crow
Update (see a few posts above) puts me 0.02 closer to contest lead. Not much change there but slightly better.
Pack beginning to close gap to Kevin P is the notable change I've been anticipating.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:50 pm
by Crow
Smallest Pelton lead in more than a month.
I gained against 1st overall, 3rd, 4th and 5th but lost .12 against contest leader / 2nd dtka.
ESPN experts in last for 2.5 weeks.
Might be one of the worst Vegas line relative performances.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:01 am
by Mike G
Everyone had a good night, but for Pelton and Crow.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.98 6.36 .50 538R 6.13 7.63 .48
dtka 5.36 6.48 .57 22Re 6.34 7.55 .29
avgA 5.55 6.66 .54 BIPM 6.46 7.80 .61
ncs. 5.60 7.00 .47 MPra 6.47 8.21 .51
LEBR 5.63 6.77 .51 4141 6.47 8.93
Crow 5.77 7.16 .52 vegas 6.57 8.32 .42
DRKO 5.78 6.88 .49 TmRk 6.60 8.26 .41
EBPI 5.79 7.25 .46 nuFi 6.84 8.48 .40
trzu 5.85 7.35 .51 AnBa 6.98 8.64 .44
vzro 5.87 7.07 .46 EExp 7.37 8.91 .38
emin 6.07 7.67 .45 538E 7.38 8.89 .27
EExp out of the cellar!
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:45 pm
by Crow
I improved by +.07. Not as much as others but still improved. Pelton, no change and edge on 2nd cut by another 1/3rd in 2 days.
On r2, I am 4th. Pelton 7th.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:14 pm
by Mike G
Pelton is the leader from exponent between 0.19 and 2.5, and his max separation from anyone else is right at 1.0
Code: Select all
. e= 0.1 e= 1.0 e= 3.3
dtka 3.54 KPel 4.87 dtka 7.56
ncs. 3.60 dtka 5.17 KPel 7.71
KPel 3.62 avgA 5.39 LEBR 7.71
. e= 7.9 e= 20.0
LEBR 10.41 Crow 13.12
dtka 10.82 LEBR 13.25
Crow 10.83 KPel 13.47
Crow's biggest error is with OKC -- off by 15.5 at this point. This is also tied for the smallest error on OKC, and is the
least bad worst error by any entry. (Separation actually gets larger with higher e, so e=20 is just arbitrary.)
Best hopes to catch Kevin: continuing fade by Ind; also Por, Orl, Uta (less likely); sustained resurgence by GSW; also Mia, LAC, Dal, Phx, Min (long way off).
Right now, gains are made when Phl, LAL, or Dal win; with loss by Was. For most or all entries (YMMV).
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
by Crow
A lot still be determined for OKC and everyone else, of course.
I probably was / am too hard on OKC, especially in short run. I knew a 30 plus win season was possible, just seemed less likely they'd push for that.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:18 pm
by Mike G
Immense improvements overnight.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.63 6.06 .52 22Re 6.03 7.21 .32
dtka 5.02 6.14 .61 4141 6.08 8.66
avgA 5.21 6.32 .57 MPra 6.17 7.80 .56
ncs. 5.41 6.69 .50 vegas 6.30 8.03 .45
LEBR 5.42 6.38 .55 BIPM 6.37 7.75 .62
vzro 5.43 6.73 .49 TmRk 6.39 7.97 .44
Crow 5.45 6.85 .55 AnBa 6.55 8.32 .47
EBPI 5.47 7.08 .47 nuFi 6.68 8.27 .42
DRKO 5.53 6.62 .51 EExp 6.98 8.55 .41
trzu 5.61 7.02 .55 538E 7.04 8.75 .27
emin 5.81 7.41 .47 2022 7.89 9.68 .32
538R 5.83 7.48 .49
vzro error shrank by .43, and he went up 2 slots.
EBPI only improved by .22, so they dropped 3 places!
KPel had the highest guess for Ind (38) and lowest for GSW (42). Both teams are approaching those projections, going opposite directions. If Pacers end up at 35 wins and Dubs at 45, Kevin's lead is gone (all else being equal).
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:28 pm
by Crow
Mixed relative change for me. Best I can say is .32 improvement and I am just .04 from tied for 4th, down from .17 a few days ago.
DARKO improves but by less than others higher. Falls to 9th place.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:21 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
Atl w Bos w Brk w Cha w Chi w Cle w Det w Ind w
dt 50 vz 58 em 51 KP 41 nc 41 em 50 vz 31 b-r 38
tr 48 tr 57 b-r 48 vz 39 cr 40 b-r 50 nc 27 KP 38
cr 47 nc 57 nc 47 dt 33 b-r 40 tr 48 em 27 nc 34
KP 46 em 56 tr 47 nc 32 KP 38 vz 48 KP 26 em 33
nc 45 b-r 55 KP 46 em 32 dt 38 cr 47 b-r 24 vz 32
vz 44 dt 55 dt 44 tr 32 tr 38 dt 46 dt 24 dt 31
em 44 KP 54 cr 44 cr 30 vz 37 KP 43 tr 24 tr 28
b-r 41 cr 53 vz 42 b-r 25 em 35 nc 43 cr 23 cr 28
Mia w Mil w NYK w Orl w Phl w Tor w Was w
nc 51 em 55 b-r 44 b-r 33 tr 54 cr 52 vz 40
tr 50 dt 52 cr 44 KP 31 dt 53 tr 50 KP 40
cr 50 vz 52 vz 43 em 28 em 52 nc 49 b-r 39
vz 49 tr 50 nc 43 tr 28 nc 52 dt 48 dt 38
em 48 b-r 50 dt 43 cr 28 vz 51 KP 47 nc 37
dt 47 KP 50 tr 42 nc 28 cr 51 vz 44 em 34
KP 46 cr 49 KP 42 dt 26 b-r 51 em 40 tr 33
b-r 44 nc 48 em 36 vz 26 KP 48 b-r 39 cr 30
Dal w Den w GSW w Hou w LAC w LAL w Mem w Min w
nc 47 b-r 54 em 52 nc 27 cr 51 dt 43 cr 52 em 53
tr 47 cr 53 cr 51 cr 27 em 49 vz 43 b-r 51 tr 50
vz 46 em 51 tr 50 KP 27 tr 49 em 42 dt 50 dt 49
dt 46 dt 49 dt 47 em 24 vz 45 nc 39 tr 48 cr 47
cr 46 tr 49 vz 47 tr 23 nc 45 b-r 38 nc 47 nc 47
em 44 vz 48 nc 44 b-r 21 dt 45 tr 37 em 47 KP 46
KP 43 KP 48 KP 42 dt 20 KP 44 KP 37 vz 47 vz 45
b-r 43 nc 47 b-r 41 vz 18 b-r 41 cr 35 KP 46 b-r 41
NOP w OKC w Phx w Por w Sac w SAS w Uta w
cr 49 b-r 43 nc 54 b-r 40 b-r 47 vz 33 b-r 41
tr 48 cr 27 tr 52 em 40 cr 39 KP 31 vz 39
KP 48 KP 27 vz 51 tr 37 tr 37 em 31 KP 35
nc 46 dt 26 em 50 KP 37 dt 37 nc 31 nc 35
dt 46 vz 26 dt 50 dt 36 nc 37 dt 26 dt 32
b-r 44 nc 25 cr 50 vz 33 KP 37 cr 25 cr 29
vz 44 tr 24 KP 49 cr 33 vz 32 tr 25 tr 29
em 43 em 23 b-r 42 nc 28 em 32 b-r 23 em 28
KPel and 6 self-entries reduced to 2 letters, rounded to integers, along with todays b-r.com projections.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:00 pm
by Crow
That'll be useful to watch. Thanks.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:26 pm
by Mike G
Lowest errors of the season for emin, 538R, nuFi; recently too for EBPI, Crow, vegas, TmRk, AnBa, EExp.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.58 6.01 .53 538R 5.77 7.36 .50
dtka 4.96 6.08 .61 22Re 5.92 7.08 .34
avgA 5.15 6.22 .58 vegas 6.04 7.80 .48
vzro 5.30 6.61 .51 TmRk 6.09 7.71 .47
LEBR 5.41 6.42 .54 MPra 6.13 7.71 .57
EBPI 5.44 6.88 .50 BIPM 6.16 7.56 .64
ncs. 5.49 6.65 .50 4141 6.18 8.68
emin 5.52 7.16 .50 AnBa 6.30 8.03 .50
DRKO 5.54 6.52 .52 nuFi 6.40 7.98 .46
Crow 5.55 6.86 .55 EExp 6.85 8.38 .43
trzu 5.60 6.93 .56 538E 7.00 8.61 .29