2022-23 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Here is a thread for the contest.

[DarkStar48]

First entry of the race!

Kevin Pelton released his win projections for 2022-23.

Link: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/ ... s-slipping

[v-zero]

Fascinatingly conservative projections. I'll try to put some together this year, though my focus is really game-by-game.

[DarkStar48]

I hadn’t realized but Andy Bailey already released Bleacher Report’s 2022-23 win predictions on Aug. 17.

Link: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/100 ... le-release

[DarkStar48]

FiveThirtyEight just published their 2022-23 RAPTOR as well as Elo models' projections, as of Oct. 13.

A lot of fascinating results, especially in the West.

These predictions, at least in the RAPTOR version, may change slightly before the season starts on Oct. 19 in the event of additional adjustments (e.g., injuries, trades, etc.).

RAPTOR: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ev ... -forecast/

Elo (click "Elo forecast" button): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

[eminence]

I'm down to be the first one entered here, so here we go. Same method/rules as usual (haven't added the playoffs/non-playoffs pull effect I discussed a bit in the past as I'm not sure how the play-in would effect it), no ties in conference.

Eastern Conference
Boston 56
Milwaukee 55
Philadelphia 52
Brooklyn 51
Cleveland 50
Miami 48
Atlanta 44
Toronto 40
New York 36
Chicago 35
Washington 34
Indiana 33
Charlotte 32
Orlando 28
Detroit 27

Western Conference
Minnesota 53
Golden State 52
Denver 51
Phoenix 50
LA Clippers 49
Memphis 47
Dallas 44
New Orleans 43
LA Lakers 42
Portland 40
Sacramento 32
San Antonio 31
Utah 28
Houston 24
Oklahoma City 23

[nbacouchside]

Team Wins
Boston Celtics 56.5
Phoenix Suns 53.8
Philadelphia 76ers 51.8
Miami Heat 51.2
Toronto Raptors 48.8
Milwaukee Bucks 48.1
Memphis Grizzlies 47.4
Brooklyn Nets 47.1
Dallas Mavericks 46.6
Minnesota Timberwolves 46.6
Denver Nuggets 46.5
New Orleans Pelicans 46.3
Atlanta Hawks 45.2
Los Angeles Clippers 45.0
Golden State Warriors 43.9
New York Knicks 43.0
Cleveland Cavaliers 42.8
Chicago Bulls 41.0
Los Angeles Lakers 39.1
Washington Wizards 37.1
Sacramento Kings 36.9
Utah Jazz 34.7
Indiana Pacers 33.6
Charlotte Hornets 32.3
San Antonio Spurs 30.8
Orlando Magic 27.6
Portland Trail Blazers 27.6
Detroit Pistons 27.1
Houston Rockets 27.0
Oklahoma City Thunder 24.7

[DarkStar48]

More predictions!

ESPN Expert Forecast: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/347 ... -questions

The ESPN article also includes Caesars Sportsbook win totals plus 538 RAPTOR projections that were already linked in this forum.

[Crow]

Let's say 9pm eastern deadline Tuesday, unless a compelling personal reason to be slightly later is generally accepted.

Thanks for the external reference points.

Trackers can include outside prediction sets as they want but "the contest winner" here should (imo) be a direct entry here.

[dtkavana]

I am back for another year of projection greatness!

https://craftednba.com/projections

[tarrazu]

Code: Select all

Conf	Team	Wins
E	ATL	47.6
E	BKN	46.5
E	BOS	56.8
E	CHA	31.7
E	CHI	37.5
E	CLE	48.1
E	DET	23.8
E	IND	28.3
E	MIA	50.0
E	MIL	50.0
E	NYK	41.8
E	ORL	28.0
E	PHI	54.2
E	TOR	49.6
E	WAS	32.8
W	DAL	46.6
W	DEN	48.8
W	GSW	49.9
W	HOU	23.3
W	LAC	48.9
W	LAL	36.9
W	MEM	48.4
W	MIN	50.4
W	NOP	47.9
W	OKC	23.7
W	PHX	51.5
W	POR	36.6
W	SAC	37.1
W	SAS	24.8
W	UTA	28.5

[DarkStar48]

Team record forecast from TrueHoop’s David Thorne.

Link (paywall): https://www.truehoop.com/p/david-thorpe ... he-regular

[v-zero]

Been something like a decade since I last did this, hope I've picked up a little nous since then. No minutes projections here, these are based on a blend of several linear models that look at the averaged quality of each team at a given depth:

Code: Select all

Team	Margin	Wins
BOS	7.3	58.3
MIL	4.5	51.7
PHI	4.2	51.0
PHO	4.1	50.7
MIA	3.3	48.8
CLE	2.9	47.9
DEN	2.9	47.9
GSW	2.3	46.5
MEM	2.3	46.5
DAL	2.1	46.1
LAC	1.7	45.1
MIN	1.7	44.9
ATL	1.3	44.1
NOP	1.1	43.5
TOR	1.0	43.5
NYK	1.0	43.3
LAL	0.7	42.8
BRK	0.2	41.5
WAS	-0.4	40.2
CHO	-0.8	39.2
UTA	-0.9	38.8
CHI	-1.7	37.1
POR	-3.3	33.3
SAS	-3.5	32.8
SAC	-3.7	32.1
IND	-3.8	32.0
DET	-4.4	30.5
OKC	-6.3	26.0
ORL	-6.4	25.8
HOU	-9.5	18.4

[DarkStar48]

The results from the ESPN NBA BPI model are out!

Link: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/B ... ayoff-odds

[Crow]

47 Atlanta
53 Boston
44 Brooklyn
30 Charlotte
40 Chicago
47 Cleveland
46 Dallas
53 Denver
23 Detroit
51 Golden State
27 Houston
28 Indiana
51 LA Clippers
35 LA Lakers
52 Memphis
50 Miami
49 Milwaukee
47 Minnesota
49 New Orleans
44 New York
27 Oklahoma City
28 Orlando
51 Philadelphia
50 Phoenix
33 Portland
39 Sacramento
25 San Antonio
52 Toronto
29 Utah
30 Washington

I might adjust before deadline.