2025-26 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

I followed my math, ...

It seems your wins total 1232, which is two too many.

Pelton is high by 7, EBET 1 short. Should we adjust them or let them stand?

[Crow]

I would side with offering / making no adjustments of entries.


Submittal by first tip-off is obviously preferred but requests for "it was hectic / tough for me" slightly late entry by 3pm Eastern Wednesday would not be rejected imo unless there is some major altering event today and advantage gained from it.

Confirmed published by today but late or way late in requesting entry probably slides with an interested request but repetitions of that could / should be avoided. If no request is made, tracking is discretionary and it is subjective whether to consider it "official".

Mike G's additional entry is ok to me, under the circumstances as an addition to straight metrics and because he had a reason and asked.

As to whether to add a different Vegas line beyond EBet, I lean no. One is suggestive / "enough" to me. Generally not looking to add other non entries but let tracker or trackers track as they will.

[kmedved]

I am still cooking the DARKO win projections, but in the meantime, a friend is working on a new modeling system, and wishes to submit projections using it. I am submitting on their behalf. Call it the Walrus model for these purposes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

[Mike G]

Unsolicited but easy to find and a 'regular', the ESPN Experts' averages, and Walrus:

Code: Select all

west  EExp   Walr     east   EExp   Walr
Dal   41.9   39.4      Atl   48.0   42.1
Den   50.3   50.1      Bos   40.1   40.9
GSW   45.5   46.9      Brk   24.7   25.8
Hou   50.1   49.5      Cha   29.6   36.2
LAC   48.3   46.1      Chi   32.7   32.6
LAL   47.6   44.2      Cle   54.9   52.9
Mem   42.3   43.1      Det   43.6   42.8
Min   46.8   45.6      Ind   38.2   38.9
NOP   32.9   34.1      Mia   38.2   37.8
OKC   57.8   66.8      Mil   43.8   43.4
Phx   31.8   31.7      NYK   50.8   52.4
Por   33.9   37.1      Orl   47.9   48.9
Sac   35.1   35.5      Phl   45.9   34.2
SAS   41.8   41.7      Tor   38.2   37.7
Uta   23.6   28.0      Was   23.8   23.7

avg   42.0   42.7      avg   40.0   39.3

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/466 ... -odds-more

[dtkavana]

CraftedNBA (dtkavana) -

Team Wins
Atlanta 46
Boston 42
Brooklyn 25
Charlotte 30
Chicago 34
Cleveland 56
Dallas 42
Denver 48
Detroit 41
Golden State 50
Houston 49
Indiana 36
Clippers 53
Lakers 47
Memphis 43
Miami 36
Milwaukee 42
Minnesota 48
New Orleans 33
New York 49
Oklahoma City 61
Orlando 46
Philadelphia 37
Phoenix 36
Portland 36
Sacramento 37
San Antonio 40
Toronto 37
Utah 26
Washington 23