2021-22 team win prediction contest

[dtkavana]

0 games projected for Kyrie. 72 each for Harden and Durant. My projections might be a little low on Durant, and keep in mind this is a regular season projection, not playoff. Once you up the minutes for Harden and Durant in the playoffs, they become a title contender.

[eminence]

Fair, does sound like you're lower on KD than me too.

[Mike G]

Would expect 538 to have team projections / page based on past.

And here they are as of this morning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

Click a team to see player details included projected minutes.

OK thanks. I failed to navigate it.
Minute projections look reckless: Embiid granted 34 mpg. He has never gone over 26 mpg over a whole season; last 2 years 21-22.
Giannis given 35 mpg, despite last 3 years at 27-29 mpg.
To my memory, 538 has not done real well in the contest; maybe this is why?

[eminence]

Alright, barring a surprise trade or injury update prior to the season I think this will be it.

Nets 58
Bucks 57
Heat 53
Hawks 50
Sixers 49
Celtics 45
Bulls 42
Pacers 41
Knicks 38
Raptors 37
Hornets 34
Wizards 33
Cavs 25
Pistons 21
Magic 17

Jazz 58
Suns 57
Warriors 53
Nuggets 50
Lakers 49
Blazers 48
Mavs 47
Grizzlies 42
Kings 41
Pelicans 38
Clippers 37
Spurs 36
Wolves 33
Thunder 24
Rockets 17

[Crow]

BRef has performance projections out but per 36 minutes and not predicting minutes.

I haven't look at 538 / Raptor minutes closely.

I don't see anything crazy in your projections Eminence. There are a few teams where going against conventional wisdom might payoff.

[eminence]

The one that felt the wildest when I was typing them up was probably the Kings.

[liminal_space]

i'll transcribe Hollinger's projections into here sometime before the season starts

https://theathletic.com/2880800/2021/10 ... e-ceiling/

[Mike G]

I took the 538 minutes projections and averaged them with a fantasy site and came up with this, which I will be using.

Code: Select all

tm     mpg   
Atl   34.0   Trae Young
Atl   29.0   Clint Capela
Atl   29.0   John Collins
Atl   29.0   Bogdan Bogdanović
Atl   29.0   De'Andre Hunter
Atl   19.0   Kevin Huerter
Atl   18.5   Cam Reddish
Atl   17.0   Danilo Gallinari
Atl   12.0   Delon Wright
Atl   11.0   Gorgui Dieng
Atl    7.5   Lou Williams
Atl    5.0   Solomon Hill
Atl    0.0   
Bos   36.0   Jayson Tatum
Bos   34.5   Jaylen Brown
Bos   30.5   Marcus Smart
Bos   28.0   Dennis Schröder
Bos   23.5   Al Horford
Bos   21.5   Robert Williams
Bos   21.5   Josh Richardson
Bos   16.0   Aaron Nesmith
Bos   14.0   Payton Pritchard
Bos    7.0   Grant Williams
Bos    5.5   Romeo Langford
Bos    1.0   Juan Hernangómez
Bos    1.0   Enes Kanter
Bos    0.0   
Brk   35.0   James Harden
Brk   32.0   Kevin Durant
Brk   29.0   Joe Harris
Brk   20.5   Patty Mills
Brk   20.0   Blake Griffin
Brk   20.0   LaMarcus Aldridge
Brk   19.5   Bruce Brown
Brk   16.5   Kyrie Irving
Brk   13.5   Nicolas Claxton
Brk   13.5   Paul Millsap
Brk    7.0   DeAndre' Bembry
Brk    6.5   James Johnson
Brk    6.5   Jevon Carter
Brk    0.5   Cameron Thomas
Brk    0.0   
Cha   32.5   LaMelo Ball
Cha   32.0   Terry Rozier
Cha   30.5   Gordon Hayward
Cha   29.0   Miles Bridges
Cha   26.5   P.J. Washington
Cha   22.5   Mason Plumlee
Cha   21.5   Kelly Oubre Jr.
Cha   13.0   James Bouknight
Cha    8.0   Ish Smith
Cha    6.0   Cody Martin
Cha    5.5   Jalen McDaniels
Cha    5.5   Wesley Iwundu
Cha    5.0   Kai Jones
Cha    1.5   Nick Richards
Cha    1.0   Vernon Carey Jr.
Cha    0.0   
Chi   34.5   Zach LaVine
Chi   31.5   Lonzo Ball
Chi   31.0   Nikola Vučević
Chi   31.0   DeMar DeRozan
Chi   30.0   Patrick Williams
Chi   18.5   Alex Caruso
Chi   17.0   Tony Bradley
Chi   14.5   Derrick Jones Jr.
Chi   11.0   Coby White
Chi    7.5   Alize Johnson
Chi    5.5   Troy Brown Jr.
Chi    5.5   Marko Simonovic
Chi    0.0   
Cle   33.0   Collin Sexton
Cle   32.0   Isaac Okoro
Cle   32.0   Darius Garland
Cle   26.0   Jarrett Allen
Cle   26.0   Evan Mobley
Cle   19.5   Kevin Love
Cle   19.0   Lauri Markkanen
Cle   18.5   Ricky Rubio
Cle   16.5   Cedi Osman
Cle    7.0   Lamar Stevens
Cle    6.0   Denzel Valentine
Cle    4.5   Dean Wade
Cle    0.0   
Dal   36.0   Luka Dončić
Dal   29.5   Dorian Finney-Smith
Dal   29.5   Kristaps Porziņģis
Dal   28.5   Tim Hardaway Jr.
Dal   24.0   Maxi Kleber
Dal   21.5   Reggie Bullock
Dal   19.5   Jalen Brunson
Dal   16.0   Dwight Powell
Dal   12.5   Willie Cauley-Stein
Dal    8.0   Sterling Brown
Dal    5.0   Trey Burke
Dal    5.0   Josh Green
Dal    5.0   Frank Ntilikina
Dal    0.0   
Den   35.0   Nikola Jokić
Den   32.0   Michael Porter Jr.
Den   29.0   Aaron Gordon
Den   28.5   Will Barton
Den   26.5   Monte Morris
Den   20.0   Facundo Campazzo
Den   17.0   Austin Rivers
Den   15.5   Jeff Green
Den   15.5   PJ Dozier
Den   14.5   JaMychal Green
Den    6.5   Zeke Nnaji
Den    0.0   
Det   31.5   Jerami Grant
Det   30.5   Cade Cunningham
Det   29.0   Saddiq Bey
Det   27.5   Isaiah Stewart
Det   26.0   Killian Hayes
Det   21.0   Kelly Olynyk
Det   19.0   Hamidou Diallo
Det   18.5   Cory Joseph
Det   18.0   Josh Jackson
Det   12.5   Trey Lyles
Det    6.0   Isaiah Livers
Det    0.5   Luke Garza
Det    0.0   
GSW   34.0   Stephen Curry
GSW   33.0   Andrew Wiggins
GSW   30.0   Draymond Green
GSW   24.0   Jordan Poole
GSW   22.0   Kevon Looney
GSW   21.0   Otto Porter
GSW   16.0   Andre Iguodala
GSW   14.0   Klay Thompson
GSW    8.0   James Wiseman
GSW    7.5   Nemanja Bjelica
GSW    7.5   Moses Moody
GSW    7.0   Juan Toscano-Anderson
GSW    7.0   Damion Lee
GSW    7.0   Jonathan Kuminga
GSW    2.0   Chris Chiozza
GSW    0.0   
Hou   31.5   Christian Wood
Hou   31.5   Jalen Green
Hou   31.0   Kevin Porter Jr.
Hou   25.0   Daniel Theis
Hou   23.5   Jae'Sean Tate
Hou   22.5   Eric Gordon
Hou   18.5   Danuel House
Hou   18.0   Kenyon Martin Jr.
Hou   16.5   Alperen Sengun
Hou   10.0   D.J. Augustin
Hou    6.0   David Nwaba
Hou    3.5   ?
Hou    1.0   Anthony Lamb
Hou    0.5   Dante Exum
Hou    0.5   Armoni Brooks
Hou    0.5   Daishen Nix
Hou    0.0   
Ind   34.0   Domantas Sabonis
Ind   31.0   Myles Turner
Ind   30.5   Malcolm Brogdon
Ind   24.0   T.J. McConnell
Ind   18.5   Justin Holiday
Ind   16.0   Caris LeVert
Ind   15.5   Goga Bitadze
Ind   15.5   Chris Duarte
Ind   15.0   T.J. Warren
Ind   11.5   Jeremy Lamb
Ind    9.5   Oshae Brissett
Ind    8.5   Torrey Craig
Ind    8.0   Brad Wanamaker
Ind    2.5   Isaiah Jackson
Ind    0.0   
LAC   34.5   Paul George
LAC   27.0   Nicolas Batum
LAC   26.5   Marcus Morris
LAC   26.0   Reggie Jackson
LAC   25.0   Terance Mann
LAC   25.0   Eric Bledsoe
LAC   23.5   Ivica Zubac
LAC   18.5   Luke Kennard
LAC   16.5   Justise Winslow
LAC   11.0   Serge Ibaka
LAC    3.0   Keon Johnson
LAC    2.5   Isaiah Hartenstein
LAC    0.5   Amir Coffey
LAC    0.5   Jay Scrubb
LAC    0.0   
LAL   34.0   LeBron James
LAL   34.0   Anthony Davis
LAL   33.5   Russell Westbrook
LAL   22.0   Kendrick Nunn
LAL   21.0   Kent Bazemore
LAL   18.0   Wayne Ellington
LAL   17.5   Carmelo Anthony
LAL   17.0   Dwight Howard
LAL   13.0   DeAndre Jordan
LAL   10.0   Talen Horton-Tucker
LAL    8.0   Rajon Rondo
LAL    8.0   Trevor Ariza
LAL    4.0   Malik Monk
LAL    0.0   
Mem   33.0   Ja Morant
Mem   29.0   Jaren Jackson Jr.
Mem   27.0   Kyle Anderson
Mem   26.0   Steven Adams
Mem   24.5   Desmond Bane
Mem   21.0   De'Anthony Melton
Mem   19.0   Brandon Clarke
Mem   18.5   Xavier Tillman Sr.
Mem   18.0   Tyus Jones
Mem   15.0   Dillon Brooks
Mem    4.5   Kris Dunn
Mem    4.5   Jarrett Culver
Mem    0.0   
Mia   33.0   Bam Adebayo
Mia   33.0   Jimmy Butler
Mia   31.5   Kyle Lowry
Mia   30.0   Duncan Robinson
Mia   26.5   Tyler Herro
Mia   24.0   P.J. Tucker
Mia   17.0   Markieff Morris
Mia   14.0   Dewayne Dedmon
Mia   11.0   Max Strus
Mia    8.5   Gabe Vincent
Mia    8.0   KZ Okpala
Mia    3.0   Caleb Martin
Mia    0.5   Omer Yurtseven
Mia    0.0   
Mil   34.0   Giannis Antetokounmpo
Mil   32.5   Khris Middleton
Mil   32.0   Jrue Holiday
Mil   26.5   Brook Lopez
Mil   25.0   Donte DiVincenzo
Mil   21.5   Bobby Portis
Mil   21.0   Pat Connaughton
Mil   16.5   George Hill
Mil   15.5   Grayson Allen
Mil    7.5   Semi Ojeleye
Mil    5.0   Jordan Nwora
Mil    1.0   Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Mil    0.5   Tremont Waters
Mil    0.5   Justin Robinson
Mil    0.5   Rodney Hood
Mil    0.5   Sandro Mamukelashvili
Mil    0.0   
Min   34.0   Karl-Anthony Towns
Min   32.5   Anthony Edwards
Min   30.5   D'Angelo Russell
Min   29.5   Malik Beasley
Min   27.5   Jaden McDaniels
Min   19.0   Patrick Beverley
Min   15.5   Taurean Prince
Min   15.0   Josh Okogie
Min   15.0   Jarred Vanderbilt
Min   15.5   Naz Reid
Min    6.0   Jaylen Nowell
Min    0.0   
NOP   37.5   Brandon Ingram
NOP   30.0   Devonte' Graham
NOP   28.5   Jonas Valančiūnas
NOP   27.0   Nickeil Alexander-Walker
NOP   21.0   Jaxson Hayes
NOP   20.5   Josh Hart
NOP   17.0   Tomáš Satoranský
NOP   16.5   Zion Williamson
NOP   15.5   Kira Lewis Jr.
NOP    9.0   Trey Murphy
NOP    8.0   Willy Hernangómez
NOP    7.5   Naji Marshall
NOP    2.0   Garrett Temple
NOP    0.0   
NYK   35.0   Julius Randle
NYK   31.0   RJ Barrett
NYK   29.5   Kemba Walker
NYK   29.0   Evan Fournier
NYK   26.5   Mitchell Robinson
NYK   21.0   Derrick Rose
NYK   17.5   Nerlens Noel
NYK   15.0   Alec Burks
NYK   15.0   Immanuel Quickley
NYK   10.0   Obi Toppin
NYK    5.5   Kevin Knox
NYK    5.0   Taj Gibson
NYK    0.0   
OKC   33.0   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC   29.5   Luguentz Dort
OKC   28.0   Darius Bazley
OKC   24.5   Josh Giddey
OKC   24.0   Aleksej Pokusevski
OKC   22.0   Isaiah Roby
OKC   21.0   Derrick Favors
OKC   19.5   Théo Maledon
OKC   17.5   Kenrich Williams
OKC    7.0   Ty Jerome
OKC    6.0   Tre Mann
OKC    3.0   Mike Muscala
OKC    3.0   Gabriel Deck
OKC    1.0   Paul Watson
OKC    1.0   Aaron Wiggins
OKC    0.0   
Orl   27.0   Jalen Suggs
Orl   25.5   Chuma Okeke
Orl   25.0   Wendell Carter Jr.
Orl   21.5   Cole Anthony
Orl   21.0   Terrence Ross
Orl   19.5   R.J. Hampton
Orl   19.5   Franz Wagner
Orl   19.0   Mo Bamba
Orl   18.0   Gary Harris
Orl   14.0   Jonathan Isaac
Orl   13.0   Markelle Fultz
Orl    9.5   Moritz Wagner
Orl    3.0   Ignas Brazdeikis
Orl    3.0   Robin Lopez
Orl    0.5   E'Twaun Moore
Orl    0.5   Jeff Dowtin
Orl    0.5   Hassani Gravett
Orl    0.0   
Phl   32.5   Joel Embiid
Phl   31.5   Tobias Harris
Phl   26.5   Danny Green
Phl   26.0   Seth Curry
Phl   24.5   Ben Simmons
Phl   21.5   Matisse Thybulle
Phl   18.0   Tyrese Maxey
Phl   15.5   Andre Drummond
Phl   15.5   Shake Milton
Phl   15.0   Furkan Korkmaz
Phl   13.5   Georges Niang
Phl    0.0   
Phx   34.5   Devin Booker
Phx   32.5   Mikal Bridges
Phx   32.5   Deandre Ayton
Phx   30.0   Chris Paul
Phx   27.5   Jae Crowder
Phx   21.5   Cameron Johnson
Phx   18.5   Cameron Payne
Phx   14.0   Landry Shamet
Phx    8.5   JaVale McGee
Phx    7.0   Frank Kaminsky
Phx    7.0   Abdel Nader
Phx    6.5   Elfrid Payton
Phx    0.0   
Por   35.5   Damian Lillard
Por   33.5   CJ McCollum
Por   30.0   Robert Covington
Por   29.5   Norman Powell
Por   28.0   Jusuf Nurkić
Por   26.5   Larry Nance Jr.
Por   16.0   Tony Snell
Por   16.0   Anfernee Simons
Por    9.5   Cody Zeller
Por    7.5   Ben McLemore
Por    5.5   Nassir Little
Por    1.5   CJ Elleby
Por    1.0   Dennis Smith Jr.
Por    0.0   
Sac   34.0   De'Aaron Fox
Sac   32.5   Harrison Barnes
Sac   31.0   Tyrese Haliburton
Sac   28.0   Richaun Holmes
Sac   25.5   Buddy Hield
Sac   23.5   Marvin Bagley III
Sac   16.0   Tristan Thompson
Sac   16.0   Davion Mitchell
Sac   15.0   Maurice Harkless
Sac   11.5   Terence Davis
Sac    6.5   Chimezie Metu
Sac    0.5   Robert Woodard
Sac    0.0   
SAS   31.5   Dejounte Murray
SAS   30.5   Derrick White
SAS   29.0   Keldon Johnson
SAS   28.0   Jakob Poeltl
SAS   22.5   Doug McDermott
SAS   20.5   Thaddeus Young
SAS   20.0   Lonnie Walker
SAS   19.5   Devin Vassell
SAS   16.0   Bryn Forbes
SAS   13.5   Drew Eubanks
SAS    7.5   Al-Farouq Aminu
SAS    1.0   Jock Landale
SAS    0.5   Joshua Primo
SAS    0.0   
Tor   34.5   Fred VanVleet
Tor   32.5   OG Anunoby
Tor   28.0   Khem Birch
Tor   23.0   Gary Trent Jr.
Tor   22.0   Goran Dragić
Tor   21.5   Malachi Flynn
Tor   20.0   Scottie Barnes
Tor   17.5   Precious Achiuwa
Tor   16.0   Pascal Siakam
Tor   10.0   Chris Boucher
Tor    6.5   Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
Tor    3.5   Yuta Watanabe
Tor    3.5   Isaac Bonga
Tor    1.5   Dalano Banton
Tor    0.0   
Uta   33.5   Donovan Mitchell
Uta   32.0   Rudy Gobert
Uta   30.5   Royce O'Neale
Uta   28.0   Bojan Bogdanović
Uta   28.0   Mike Conley
Uta   24.5   Joe Ingles
Uta   22.5   Jordan Clarkson
Uta   14.0   Hassan Whiteside
Uta   10.5   Eric Paschall
Uta    8.0   Rudy Gay
Uta    5.5   Udoka Azubuike
Uta    1.5   Miye Oni
Uta    1.5   Jared Butler
Uta    0.0   
Was   35.5   Bradley Beal
Was   28.0   Rui Hachimura
Was   27.5   Spencer Dinwiddie
Was   24.5   Kyle Kuzma
Was   22.0   Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Was   20.5   Daniel Gafford
Was   19.5   Deni Avdija
Was   18.0   Dāvis Bertāns
Was   13.5   Aaron Holiday
Was   11.0   Montrezl Harrell
Was   11.0   Thomas Bryant
Was    7.0   Raul Neto
Was    1.0   Corey Kispert
Was    1.0   Isaiah Todd

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1543820123
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

[Mike G]

I'm putting 4 entries on the board: my own eWins, and other summary stats from b-r.com
Win Shares are entered as well as 'wins' derived from PER and BPM.
The minutes distribution in previous post leads to a league-wide PER of 15.75, WS/48 of .108, eW/484 = 1.06, and BPM = +0.27; so they've all been scaled down to their averages (15, .100, 1.00, 0.0) and average 41 wins per team.
This of course assumes last year's rates applied to this year's minutes. Rookie rates are scaled to their draft position.
Klay Thompson is a big unknown, and I gave him average rates.

Code: Select all

east   eWin    WShr    perW    bpmW
Atl    49.1    52.1    50.0    49.4
Bos    43.0    42.9    43.5    45.3
Brk    49.7    52.4    50.9    53.0
Cha    39.7    35.5    38.7    39.4
Chi    45.2    43.9    46.7    47.2
Cle    32.6    28.7    34.8    30.5
Det    34.4    26.6    31.7    29.0
Ind    40.6    41.0    41.7    41.0
Mia    41.3    46.4    40.1    41.9
Mil    46.7    53.7    48.7    50.9
NYK    45.6    48.3    43.9    46.4
Orl    30.0    22.5    30.9    23.8
Phl    48.8    52.8    46.2    50.0
Tor    36.2    33.8    36.2    33.5
Was    36.6    38.1    35.0    35.1

west   eWin    WShr    perW    bpmW
Dal    43.9    48.8    42.2    45.8
Den    42.0    48.9    43.5    47.1
GSW    41.0    42.4    39.2    43.7
Hou    33.8    29.3    35.5    32.0
LAC    39.0    43.0    36.2    39.1
LAL    51.7    42.7    47.6    50.5
Mem    37.5    38.1    38.0    36.9
Min    36.9    29.1    37.7    34.7
NOP    44.9    45.4    46.0    42.2
OKC    29.8    21.9    30.0    27.2
Phx    44.7    50.6    44.4    46.5
Por    41.6    45.1    45.3    47.8
Sac    36.4    34.0    41.6    34.0
SAS    36.3    35.1    37.1    36.2
Uta    51.0    56.9    46.4    50.1

WinShares has the biggest spread, from 57 (Utah!) down to 22 (OKC). PER has the narrowest, high of 51 (Brk) low of 30 (OKC) -- not sure if this can or should be fixed.
It was a complicated process; so errors are possible, and inquiries are welcome!
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

[Mike G]

WinShares seems to have the most outliers in this group. The others have the Lakers in charge out West, while WS has them vying for the last playoff spot. The Jazz, meanwhile, are loaded.

Code: Select all

WS/48  LAKERS    WS       WS    JAZZ     WS/48
.179   LeBron   10.4     13.6   Gobert    .248
.152   A Davis   8.8      9.6   Mitchell  .167
.159   Dwight    4.6      9.4   Conley    .197
.075  Westbrook  4.3      7.5   Ingles    .180
.152   D Jordan  3.4      6.3   O'Neale   .121
.084   Nunn      3.2      5.4   Bojan B   .113
.088  Ellington  2.7      4.3   Clarkson  .111
.065  Bazemore   2.3      1.9   Whiteside .081
.073   Carmelo   2.2      1.1   Azubuike  .119
.078  Talen H-T  1.3      1.1   Paschall  .062
.091   Ariza     1.2      0.8   R Gay     .059
.081   Rondo     1.1      0.2   Oni       .081
.054   Monk      0.4      0.0   J Butler -.004

Lakers may be "deeper" after the first 7, but it's not really close. It will be interesting how this HOF team plays out.
(Are Ingles and Conley really that much better than Westbrook?)

[Crow]

Interesting to see these metric rankings. Broader ranges on some teams.

One thing that is true of many or maybe all the public rankings I've seen is no explicit mention of separate evaluation of coaching or anything else (home / road patterns?, medical, tactical analytics) but the players. I haven't in past had systematic adjustments for these team elements but it has been part of the subjective adjustment of the base.

[Crow]

If need time to finalize projections after work tomorrow, get them by 10 pm US eastern time.

[shadow]

Code: Select all

ATL	48.7
BOS	46.8
BRK	54.0
CHA	36.1
CHI	42.2
CLE	27.1
DAL	48.1
DEN	46.9
DET	25.4
GSW	45.2
HOU	24.5
IND	42.5
LAC	43.8
LAL	50.3
MEM	42.6
MIA	47.1
MIL	55.2
MIN	36.3
NOP	40.2
NYK	42.6
OKC	21.1
ORL	21.7
PHI	51.0
PHX	51.8
POR	45.0
SAC	35.3
SAS	30.9
TOR	37.7
UTA	53.2
WAS	36.7

[Waucckhewww]

Which fantasy site did you use? Looks like NBADynastyADP?

I would recommend Basketball Monster, if you can. It’s a pay site, but I would trust Josh Lloyds minute projections to be through and about as accurate as you can get. Kostya switched DARKO win projections over to using Basketball Monster, after using 538 previously.

Hashtag Basketball is a good source for free projections. https://hashtagbasketball.com/fantasy- ... rojections

I took the 538 minutes projections and averaged them with a fantasy site and came up with this, which I will be using.

Code: Select all

tm     mpg   
Atl   34.0   Trae Young
Atl   29.0   Clint Capela
Atl   29.0   John Collins
Atl   29.0   Bogdan Bogdanović
Atl   29.0   De'Andre Hunter
Atl   19.0   Kevin Huerter
Atl   18.5   Cam Reddish
Atl   17.0   Danilo Gallinari
Atl   12.0   Delon Wright
Atl   11.0   Gorgui Dieng
Atl    7.5   Lou Williams
Atl    5.0   Solomon Hill
Atl    0.0   
Bos   36.0   Jayson Tatum
Bos   34.5   Jaylen Brown
Bos   30.5   Marcus Smart
Bos   28.0   Dennis Schröder
Bos   23.5   Al Horford
Bos   21.5   Robert Williams
Bos   21.5   Josh Richardson
Bos   16.0   Aaron Nesmith
Bos   14.0   Payton Pritchard
Bos    7.0   Grant Williams
Bos    5.5   Romeo Langford
Bos    1.0   Juan Hernangómez
Bos    1.0   Enes Kanter
Bos    0.0   
Brk   35.0   James Harden
Brk   32.0   Kevin Durant
Brk   29.0   Joe Harris
Brk   20.5   Patty Mills
Brk   20.0   Blake Griffin
Brk   20.0   LaMarcus Aldridge
Brk   19.5   Bruce Brown
Brk   16.5   Kyrie Irving
Brk   13.5   Nicolas Claxton
Brk   13.5   Paul Millsap
Brk    7.0   DeAndre' Bembry
Brk    6.5   James Johnson
Brk    6.5   Jevon Carter
Brk    0.5   Cameron Thomas
Brk    0.0   
Cha   32.5   LaMelo Ball
Cha   32.0   Terry Rozier
Cha   30.5   Gordon Hayward
Cha   29.0   Miles Bridges
Cha   26.5   P.J. Washington
Cha   22.5   Mason Plumlee
Cha   21.5   Kelly Oubre Jr.
Cha   13.0   James Bouknight
Cha    8.0   Ish Smith
Cha    6.0   Cody Martin
Cha    5.5   Jalen McDaniels
Cha    5.5   Wesley Iwundu
Cha    5.0   Kai Jones
Cha    1.5   Nick Richards
Cha    1.0   Vernon Carey Jr.
Cha    0.0   
Chi   34.5   Zach LaVine
Chi   31.5   Lonzo Ball
Chi   31.0   Nikola Vučević
Chi   31.0   DeMar DeRozan
Chi   30.0   Patrick Williams
Chi   18.5   Alex Caruso
Chi   17.0   Tony Bradley
Chi   14.5   Derrick Jones Jr.
Chi   11.0   Coby White
Chi    7.5   Alize Johnson
Chi    5.5   Troy Brown Jr.
Chi    5.5   Marko Simonovic
Chi    0.0   
Cle   33.0   Collin Sexton
Cle   32.0   Isaac Okoro
Cle   32.0   Darius Garland
Cle   26.0   Jarrett Allen
Cle   26.0   Evan Mobley
Cle   19.5   Kevin Love
Cle   19.0   Lauri Markkanen
Cle   18.5   Ricky Rubio
Cle   16.5   Cedi Osman
Cle    7.0   Lamar Stevens
Cle    6.0   Denzel Valentine
Cle    4.5   Dean Wade
Cle    0.0   
Dal   36.0   Luka Dončić
Dal   29.5   Dorian Finney-Smith
Dal   29.5   Kristaps Porziņģis
Dal   28.5   Tim Hardaway Jr.
Dal   24.0   Maxi Kleber
Dal   21.5   Reggie Bullock
Dal   19.5   Jalen Brunson
Dal   16.0   Dwight Powell
Dal   12.5   Willie Cauley-Stein
Dal    8.0   Sterling Brown
Dal    5.0   Trey Burke
Dal    5.0   Josh Green
Dal    5.0   Frank Ntilikina
Dal    0.0   
Den   35.0   Nikola Jokić
Den   32.0   Michael Porter Jr.
Den   29.0   Aaron Gordon
Den   28.5   Will Barton
Den   26.5   Monte Morris
Den   20.0   Facundo Campazzo
Den   17.0   Austin Rivers
Den   15.5   Jeff Green
Den   15.5   PJ Dozier
Den   14.5   JaMychal Green
Den    6.5   Zeke Nnaji
Den    0.0   
Det   31.5   Jerami Grant
Det   30.5   Cade Cunningham
Det   29.0   Saddiq Bey
Det   27.5   Isaiah Stewart
Det   26.0   Killian Hayes
Det   21.0   Kelly Olynyk
Det   19.0   Hamidou Diallo
Det   18.5   Cory Joseph
Det   18.0   Josh Jackson
Det   12.5   Trey Lyles
Det    6.0   Isaiah Livers
Det    0.5   Luke Garza
Det    0.0   
GSW   34.0   Stephen Curry
GSW   33.0   Andrew Wiggins
GSW   30.0   Draymond Green
GSW   24.0   Jordan Poole
GSW   22.0   Kevon Looney
GSW   21.0   Otto Porter
GSW   16.0   Andre Iguodala
GSW   14.0   Klay Thompson
GSW    8.0   James Wiseman
GSW    7.5   Nemanja Bjelica
GSW    7.5   Moses Moody
GSW    7.0   Juan Toscano-Anderson
GSW    7.0   Damion Lee
GSW    7.0   Jonathan Kuminga
GSW    2.0   Chris Chiozza
GSW    0.0   
Hou   31.5   Christian Wood
Hou   31.5   Jalen Green
Hou   31.0   Kevin Porter Jr.
Hou   25.0   Daniel Theis
Hou   23.5   Jae'Sean Tate
Hou   22.5   Eric Gordon
Hou   18.5   Danuel House
Hou   18.0   Kenyon Martin Jr.
Hou   16.5   Alperen Sengun
Hou   10.0   D.J. Augustin
Hou    6.0   David Nwaba
Hou    3.5   ?
Hou    1.0   Anthony Lamb
Hou    0.5   Dante Exum
Hou    0.5   Armoni Brooks
Hou    0.5   Daishen Nix
Hou    0.0   
Ind   34.0   Domantas Sabonis
Ind   31.0   Myles Turner
Ind   30.5   Malcolm Brogdon
Ind   24.0   T.J. McConnell
Ind   18.5   Justin Holiday
Ind   16.0   Caris LeVert
Ind   15.5   Goga Bitadze
Ind   15.5   Chris Duarte
Ind   15.0   T.J. Warren
Ind   11.5   Jeremy Lamb
Ind    9.5   Oshae Brissett
Ind    8.5   Torrey Craig
Ind    8.0   Brad Wanamaker
Ind    2.5   Isaiah Jackson
Ind    0.0   
LAC   34.5   Paul George
LAC   27.0   Nicolas Batum
LAC   26.5   Marcus Morris
LAC   26.0   Reggie Jackson
LAC   25.0   Terance Mann
LAC   25.0   Eric Bledsoe
LAC   23.5   Ivica Zubac
LAC   18.5   Luke Kennard
LAC   16.5   Justise Winslow
LAC   11.0   Serge Ibaka
LAC    3.0   Keon Johnson
LAC    2.5   Isaiah Hartenstein
LAC    0.5   Amir Coffey
LAC    0.5   Jay Scrubb
LAC    0.0   
LAL   34.0   LeBron James
LAL   34.0   Anthony Davis
LAL   33.5   Russell Westbrook
LAL   22.0   Kendrick Nunn
LAL   21.0   Kent Bazemore
LAL   18.0   Wayne Ellington
LAL   17.5   Carmelo Anthony
LAL   17.0   Dwight Howard
LAL   13.0   DeAndre Jordan
LAL   10.0   Talen Horton-Tucker
LAL    8.0   Rajon Rondo
LAL    8.0   Trevor Ariza
LAL    4.0   Malik Monk
LAL    0.0   
Mem   33.0   Ja Morant
Mem   29.0   Jaren Jackson Jr.
Mem   27.0   Kyle Anderson
Mem   26.0   Steven Adams
Mem   24.5   Desmond Bane
Mem   21.0   De'Anthony Melton
Mem   19.0   Brandon Clarke
Mem   18.5   Xavier Tillman Sr.
Mem   18.0   Tyus Jones
Mem   15.0   Dillon Brooks
Mem    4.5   Kris Dunn
Mem    4.5   Jarrett Culver
Mem    0.0   
Mia   33.0   Bam Adebayo
Mia   33.0   Jimmy Butler
Mia   31.5   Kyle Lowry
Mia   30.0   Duncan Robinson
Mia   26.5   Tyler Herro
Mia   24.0   P.J. Tucker
Mia   17.0   Markieff Morris
Mia   14.0   Dewayne Dedmon
Mia   11.0   Max Strus
Mia    8.5   Gabe Vincent
Mia    8.0   KZ Okpala
Mia    3.0   Caleb Martin
Mia    0.5   Omer Yurtseven
Mia    0.0   
Mil   34.0   Giannis Antetokounmpo
Mil   32.5   Khris Middleton
Mil   32.0   Jrue Holiday
Mil   26.5   Brook Lopez
Mil   25.0   Donte DiVincenzo
Mil   21.5   Bobby Portis
Mil   21.0   Pat Connaughton
Mil   16.5   George Hill
Mil   15.5   Grayson Allen
Mil    7.5   Semi Ojeleye
Mil    5.0   Jordan Nwora
Mil    1.0   Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Mil    0.5   Tremont Waters
Mil    0.5   Justin Robinson
Mil    0.5   Rodney Hood
Mil    0.5   Sandro Mamukelashvili
Mil    0.0   
Min   34.0   Karl-Anthony Towns
Min   32.5   Anthony Edwards
Min   30.5   D'Angelo Russell
Min   29.5   Malik Beasley
Min   27.5   Jaden McDaniels
Min   19.0   Patrick Beverley
Min   15.5   Taurean Prince
Min   15.0   Josh Okogie
Min   15.0   Jarred Vanderbilt
Min   15.5   Naz Reid
Min    6.0   Jaylen Nowell
Min    0.0   
NOP   37.5   Brandon Ingram
NOP   30.0   Devonte' Graham
NOP   28.5   Jonas Valančiūnas
NOP   27.0   Nickeil Alexander-Walker
NOP   21.0   Jaxson Hayes
NOP   20.5   Josh Hart
NOP   17.0   Tomáš Satoranský
NOP   16.5   Zion Williamson
NOP   15.5   Kira Lewis Jr.
NOP    9.0   Trey Murphy
NOP    8.0   Willy Hernangómez
NOP    7.5   Naji Marshall
NOP    2.0   Garrett Temple
NOP    0.0   
NYK   35.0   Julius Randle
NYK   31.0   RJ Barrett
NYK   29.5   Kemba Walker
NYK   29.0   Evan Fournier
NYK   26.5   Mitchell Robinson
NYK   21.0   Derrick Rose
NYK   17.5   Nerlens Noel
NYK   15.0   Alec Burks
NYK   15.0   Immanuel Quickley
NYK   10.0   Obi Toppin
NYK    5.5   Kevin Knox
NYK    5.0   Taj Gibson
NYK    0.0   
OKC   33.0   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC   29.5   Luguentz Dort
OKC   28.0   Darius Bazley
OKC   24.5   Josh Giddey
OKC   24.0   Aleksej Pokusevski
OKC   22.0   Isaiah Roby
OKC   21.0   Derrick Favors
OKC   19.5   Théo Maledon
OKC   17.5   Kenrich Williams
OKC    7.0   Ty Jerome
OKC    6.0   Tre Mann
OKC    3.0   Mike Muscala
OKC    3.0   Gabriel Deck
OKC    1.0   Paul Watson
OKC    1.0   Aaron Wiggins
OKC    0.0   
Orl   27.0   Jalen Suggs
Orl   25.5   Chuma Okeke
Orl   25.0   Wendell Carter Jr.
Orl   21.5   Cole Anthony
Orl   21.0   Terrence Ross
Orl   19.5   R.J. Hampton
Orl   19.5   Franz Wagner
Orl   19.0   Mo Bamba
Orl   18.0   Gary Harris
Orl   14.0   Jonathan Isaac
Orl   13.0   Markelle Fultz
Orl    9.5   Moritz Wagner
Orl    3.0   Ignas Brazdeikis
Orl    3.0   Robin Lopez
Orl    0.5   E'Twaun Moore
Orl    0.5   Jeff Dowtin
Orl    0.5   Hassani Gravett
Orl    0.0   
Phl   32.5   Joel Embiid
Phl   31.5   Tobias Harris
Phl   26.5   Danny Green
Phl   26.0   Seth Curry
Phl   24.5   Ben Simmons
Phl   21.5   Matisse Thybulle
Phl   18.0   Tyrese Maxey
Phl   15.5   Andre Drummond
Phl   15.5   Shake Milton
Phl   15.0   Furkan Korkmaz
Phl   13.5   Georges Niang
Phl    0.0   
Phx   34.5   Devin Booker
Phx   32.5   Mikal Bridges
Phx   32.5   Deandre Ayton
Phx   30.0   Chris Paul
Phx   27.5   Jae Crowder
Phx   21.5   Cameron Johnson
Phx   18.5   Cameron Payne
Phx   14.0   Landry Shamet
Phx    8.5   JaVale McGee
Phx    7.0   Frank Kaminsky
Phx    7.0   Abdel Nader
Phx    6.5   Elfrid Payton
Phx    0.0   
Por   35.5   Damian Lillard
Por   33.5   CJ McCollum
Por   30.0   Robert Covington
Por   29.5   Norman Powell
Por   28.0   Jusuf Nurkić
Por   26.5   Larry Nance Jr.
Por   16.0   Tony Snell
Por   16.0   Anfernee Simons
Por    9.5   Cody Zeller
Por    7.5   Ben McLemore
Por    5.5   Nassir Little
Por    1.5   CJ Elleby
Por    1.0   Dennis Smith Jr.
Por    0.0   
Sac   34.0   De'Aaron Fox
Sac   32.5   Harrison Barnes
Sac   31.0   Tyrese Haliburton
Sac   28.0   Richaun Holmes
Sac   25.5   Buddy Hield
Sac   23.5   Marvin Bagley III
Sac   16.0   Tristan Thompson
Sac   16.0   Davion Mitchell
Sac   15.0   Maurice Harkless
Sac   11.5   Terence Davis
Sac    6.5   Chimezie Metu
Sac    0.5   Robert Woodard
Sac    0.0   
SAS   31.5   Dejounte Murray
SAS   30.5   Derrick White
SAS   29.0   Keldon Johnson
SAS   28.0   Jakob Poeltl
SAS   22.5   Doug McDermott
SAS   20.5   Thaddeus Young
SAS   20.0   Lonnie Walker
SAS   19.5   Devin Vassell
SAS   16.0   Bryn Forbes
SAS   13.5   Drew Eubanks
SAS    7.5   Al-Farouq Aminu
SAS    1.0   Jock Landale
SAS    0.5   Joshua Primo
SAS    0.0   
Tor   34.5   Fred VanVleet
Tor   32.5   OG Anunoby
Tor   28.0   Khem Birch
Tor   23.0   Gary Trent Jr.
Tor   22.0   Goran Dragić
Tor   21.5   Malachi Flynn
Tor   20.0   Scottie Barnes
Tor   17.5   Precious Achiuwa
Tor   16.0   Pascal Siakam
Tor   10.0   Chris Boucher
Tor    6.5   Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
Tor    3.5   Yuta Watanabe
Tor    3.5   Isaac Bonga
Tor    1.5   Dalano Banton
Tor    0.0   
Uta   33.5   Donovan Mitchell
Uta   32.0   Rudy Gobert
Uta   30.5   Royce O'Neale
Uta   28.0   Bojan Bogdanović
Uta   28.0   Mike Conley
Uta   24.5   Joe Ingles
Uta   22.5   Jordan Clarkson
Uta   14.0   Hassan Whiteside
Uta   10.5   Eric Paschall
Uta    8.0   Rudy Gay
Uta    5.5   Udoka Azubuike
Uta    1.5   Miye Oni
Uta    1.5   Jared Butler
Uta    0.0   
Was   35.5   Bradley Beal
Was   28.0   Rui Hachimura
Was   27.5   Spencer Dinwiddie
Was   24.5   Kyle Kuzma
Was   22.0   Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Was   20.5   Daniel Gafford
Was   19.5   Deni Avdija
Was   18.0   Dāvis Bertāns
Was   13.5   Aaron Holiday
Was   11.0   Montrezl Harrell
Was   11.0   Thomas Bryant
Was    7.0   Raul Neto
Was    1.0   Corey Kispert
Was    1.0   Isaiah Todd

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1543820123
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

[Crow]

https://twitter.com/mattefay/status/145 ... 57924?s=20

More metrics for comparison beyond the local contest.