ESPN reports "Caesars Sportsbook" has these win totals predicted. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/320 ... -win-total
I imagine these numbers will change as the season approaches.
Also showing last season's wins, adjusted to an 82-game schedule.
west vegas 2021 east vegas 2021
LAL 51.5 47.8 Brk 54.5 54.7
Uta 51.5 59.2 Mil 53.5 52.4
Phx 50.5 58.1 Phl 51.5 55.8
GSW 48.5 44.4 Mia 47.5 45.6
Dal 47.5 47.8 Atl 46.5 46.7
Den 47.5 53.5 Bos 46.5 41.0
LAC 44.5 53.5 Ind 42.5 38.7
Por 43.5 47.8 Chi 41.5 35.3
Mem 41.5 43.3 NYK 41.5 46.7
NOP 40.5 35.3 Cha 37.5 37.6
Sac 35.5 35.3 Tor 36.5 30.8
Min 33.5 26.2 Was 33.5 38.7
Hou 29.5 19.4 Cle 26.5 25.1
SAS 29.5 37.6 Det 25.5 22.8
OKC 22.5 25.1 Orl 23.5 23.9
avg 41.2 42.3 avg 40.6 39.7
There were 2 listings for Kings and none for Rockets; so I assumed the Hou prediction is the lower one.
East-West disparity drops from 2.6 to 0.6
Total is less than 41.0 per team -- so bet Over?
Last edited by Crow on Mon Oct 17, 2022 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason:Clarifying season dates
Preliminary projections. Some look a little wild to me, but I'm not sure how much I want to tweak. Simmons/Sixers the biggest swing point for me, currently projecting no trade and him not reporting - probably not the most likely scenario. Hope it just gets done so I can get something down there.
Anyone is welcome. Jump in if you want to. Encourage folks you know to participate if you wish.
Free to revise til first game is played but not after. Slight delayed entry possible with accepted excuse and no concerns of unfair advantage.
Use one decimal max (please) or not for win totals. Check that you add to 1230 wins. Errors on that will be handled by scorekeepers. For consistency / ease of data entry and based on last year, make your list alpha by team city 3 letter abbreviation if possible. Check that scorekeepers accurately recorded your numbers near start of season.
Scorekeepers appreciated.
Predictions sets published elsewhere by start of season can be added by request or I guess scorekeeper interest, though whether they are contest entries is debatable. Some Vegas related betting baseline is usually included. Which? Scorerkeeper choice or recommend and the group can react.
Talk about methodology or challenging cases is welcome.
Scoring method likely to be two way as scorekeepers have done in past- average error or r2. Pay attention to the one you prefer.
If season is abbreviated leaguewide actual records would be scaled to 82. Stray team cases? Scorekeeper can decide, with community input. Probably scaled to 82.
One entry per person unless you have a strong reason for pursuing / presenting multiple methods. Designate one as your primary contest entry.
Will be putting out an updated one prior to the season, seen enough in pre-season and enough updates on Simmons/Kyrie to be worth it I think.
Edit:
Looking at it it'll be mostly Sixers/Thunder up (I had Shai only playing half a season again, I hope that's not the case). And Nets/Heat down (I'd had in my mind that the Heat had better looking depth than they seem too, not sold on their bigs especially). Other more minor adjustments, Suns/Lakers essentially flipping places. Will get updated in the next few days.
