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Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:45 pm
by bchaikin
Are you saying that if Jokic is a great passer, his team should therefore be the best shooting team in the league?
The normal question here is: how much better do they shoot with him on the floor than without him?
If they shoot better when he is on the floor are you saying that is solely due to him? If a team shoots better with a high assist player on the floor than without him is that always due to that high assist player?...
Jokic can't turn Monte Morris and Will Barton into those guys; nor can he turn them into Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.
wait a minute - on the one hand you are stating a player like jokic can increase his teammates' FG%s, but then in the same breath are saying only certain players?...
It's hard to say whether Jokic would make the Jazz win 14 more games or 6 more, or not even as many.
not even as many, as he is nowhere near the defender gobert is, and gobert on offense is more efficient than jokic...
They're a team built around Gobert, who doesn't have to do much on offense.
come again? at the time of the above W-L records gobert was scoring 19.1 pts/40min with offensive efficiency of 3.11 pts/0ptposs. how is that any different than jarrett allen (20.8 pts/40min, 3.43 pts/0ptposs), deandre ayton (21.2 pts/40mn, 2.79 pts/0ptposs), bam adebayo (22.8 pts/40min, 2.13 pts/0ptposs), or christian wood (20.8 pts/40min, 1.94 pts/0ptposs)? were they all also not doing much on offense?...
Denver with Gobert instead of Jokic would likely have trouble getting points.
based on what reasoning? no team loses a 26 pts/g scorer and then scores 26 less points per game, and at the time of the above W-L records there were 15 teams that scored more pts/g than the nuggets that threw for less ast/100poss than did denver, and 15 teams that scored more pts/g with lower ast/fgm ratios than denver's...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:05 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:10 pm
BPM really loves Jokic over Gobert, by 9.8 pts/100 poss
They both play about 32 mpg, or 2/3 of a game, so a team with Jokic should be 6.6 pts/G better than with Gobert.
This should result in about 14 more wins in 82 games.
eWins likes Joker by ~3 eWins, which by magical math would result in another 6 wins over Gobert.
Win Shares rates them closer yet, maybe 2-3 wins difference in a season.
With Hassan Whiteside as backup/alternative, Gobert adds about 4.5 points to Utah's offense and half a point to defense.
Relative to -- Jeff Green? -- at center, Denver prefers Jokic by 14 pts/100 on offense and
16 on defense. Go figure.
...Utah is 3rd worst in the league in ast/fgm,...
I don't know if higher or lower is better or worse. The Pelicans have one of the highest Ast/FG ratios and bottom-5 offense.
Seeing Utah
opponents have the lowest Ast/FG ratio in the league, maybe their scorekeepers are just stingy with assists?
BPM is almost certainly significantly overrating Jokic's defense. I would consider him closer to a neutral defender, not a +4 defender.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:27 am
by bchaikin
stats.nba.com currently (12-17-2021) shows that among the 17 Cs to have faced 300+ FGAs on defense jokic is currently allowing the highest/worst FG% at 51.8%. the Cs allowing the lowest FG%s are doing so in the 38%-39% FG% range (and the league average FG% is 45%)...
and among the 31 Cs with 10+ games started jokic is blocking shots at just 1.2% BS, the 5th lowest/worst rate...
(where he does excel is at defensive rebounding - 2nd highest per minute rate among starting Cs, next to only gobert)...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:35 pm
by Mike G
Teams surrender on avg 12.4 3FG per game at a success rate of .349
Utah opponents rank among the lowest in both 3FG (10.5) and 3fg% (.325) allowed. Others fitting the description: Cavs, Pacers.
Their defenses have elite shot-blocking. Does this allow them the opportunity to swarm the 3-pt line and discourage 3's, knowing they have a shot blocker behind them?
If so, then perhaps shot-blocking does not adequately define the defensive contribution of guys like Gobert/Whiteside, Myles Turner, Allen/Mobley.
among the 17 Cs to have faced 300+ FGAs on defense jokic is currently allowing the highest/worst FG% at 51.8%.
The flip side of Jokic's incredible defensive on-off -- due to Denver having no other viable C -- is perhaps that he's often "facing" FGA from a lot of players getting to the basket. The opponent strategy would be to wear him down, get fouls on him, and topple the Denver offense.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:06 pm
by bchaikin
Their defenses have elite shot-blocking. Does this allow them the opportunity to swarm the 3-pt line and discourage 3's, knowing they have a shot blocker behind them?
currently 3 of the best 4 best shot blocking teams in the league are allowing
higher than league average 3pt FG% shooting (phi, mem, nyk) on close to league average number of 3ptFGA/100poss. of the 7 teams allowing the fewest 3ptFGA/100poss 4 (chi, dal, sac, pho) are blocking shots at rates
less than the league average rate of 4.9 bs/100poss...
If so, then perhaps shot-blocking does not adequately define the defensive contribution of guys like Gobert/Whiteside, Myles Turner, Allen/Mobley.
i have no idea what you are trying to infer here - are you trying to say they are better defenders than their shot blocking might indicate, or worse?...
The flip side of Jokic's incredible defensive on-off -- due to Denver having no other viable C -- is perhaps that he's often "facing" FGA from a lot of players getting to the basket. The opponent strategy would be to wear him down, get fouls on him, and topple the Denver offense.
so in lieu of actual data (as actual as we have now for individual player defensive FGM/FGA faced) that shows jokic allows a high/poor FG% on defense for a C are you instead trying to infer or rationalize that his on/off data is more indicative of his defensive contribution? or is that not what you are saying here?...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:56 pm
by Mike G
If Jokic is not "facing" many shooters at the 3-pt arc, then we assume he's mostly defending shots inside the arc.
Denver is 2nd-worst in the league (after Cha) in 2FG% allowed, at .551. NBA avg is .527, and you say Jokic allows .518, which is a little to a lot better than those figures.
So he is about .040 better than his teammates at stopping 2FGA, even when it's vital that he not foul out.
If he's doing this and not putting many 77% FT shooters at the line, that's even better.
Of their top 5 players, he's the only one with DBPM better than minus-1.
He has as many DWS as any two others.
There doesn't seem to be a correlation between blocked shots by a team, and opponent 3FG or 3FG%. And we may realize that blocks are not all created equal: some lead to fast breaks, while others go out of bounds or tend to have fouls associated.
Some successful teams (Cle, Uta) seem to be cutting into opponent 3FG shooting, and I wonder if their interior defenders were part of the equation.
Here's a possibly complete list of players who have scored the most Pts/100 poss. at a given off-Rating (>500 minutes) :
Code: Select all
player tm ORtg Pts/100
M Robinson NYK 152 14.3
R Williams Bos 138 16.6
Gobert Uta 137 23.3
R Holmes Sac 137 24.7
M Harrell Was 133 27.9
J Butler Mia 126 34.0
Jokic Den 125 40.0
Giannis Mil 118 40.2
They're a team built around Gobert, who doesn't have to do much on offense.
This was an off-hand comment I made, and not sure if it can be confirmed; but going over his Game Log, I find 12 Jazz wins in which he scored less than the team margin of victory. So if he plays but scores zero in those games, they still win (all else being equal). Another 4 to 7 in which he (or his replacement) may score half as many and they still win. And just 2-5 wins that needed his scoring.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... elog/2022/
For Denver, they needed all or most of the Jokic points in all but 4 or 5 wins.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2021 8:14 pm
by bchaikin
sorry for the formatting - but current (12-18-2021) stats.nba.com individual player shot defense for all players to have faced 350+ FGAs to date. the bolded is the (defensive) FG% allowed:
PLAYER TEAM AGE POSITION GP G FREQ DFGM DFGA DFG% FG% DIFF%
Rudy Gobert UTA 29 C 29 29 100.0% 220 544 40.4 47.8 -7.4
Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22 F-C 29 29 100.0% 144 352 40.9 46.4 -5.5
Kevin Durant BKN 33 F 27 27 100.0% 149 351 42.5 45.3 -2.9
Evan Mobley CLE 20 C 25 25 100.0% 178 413 43.1 46.3 -3.2
Andrew Wiggins GSW 26 F 29 29 100.0% 160 370 43.2 45.4 -2.1
Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 22 C-F 30 30 100.0% 165 379 43.5 47.4 -3.9
Miles Bridges CHA 23 F 30 30 100.0% 201 459 43.8 45.3 -1.5
Mo Bamba ORL 23 C 27 27 100.0% 177 404 43.8 47.9 -4.0
Jarrett Allen CLE 23 C 28 28 100.0% 180 404 44.6 47.8 -3.2
John Collins ATL 24 F-C 29 29 100.0% 188 421 44.7 46.6 -1.9
Reggie Jackson LAC 31 G 30 30 100.0% 185 412 44.9 43.9 1.0
Franz Wagner ORL 20 F 31 31 100.0% 166 367 45.2 45.1 0.1
Christian Wood HOU 26 F 28 28 100.0% 201 443 45.4 45.4 0.0
Julius Randle NYK 27 F-C 30 30 100.0% 172 379 45.4 47.5 -2.1
Scottie Barnes TOR 20 F 27 27 100.0% 175 381 45.9 45.4 0.5
Clint Capela ATL 27 C 29 29 100.0% 208 451 46.1 47.9 -1.8
Anthony Davis LAL 28 F-C 27 27 100.0% 202 437 46.2 45.5 0.7
Nikola Vucevic CHI 31 C 20 20 100.0% 165 355 46.5 47.2 -0.8
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 26 C-F 28 28 100.0% 186 399 46.6 48.1 -1.5
Lonzo Ball CHI 24 G 27 27 100.0% 170 363 46.8 44.1 2.7
Domantas Sabonis IND 25 F-C 31 31 100.0% 189 402 47.0 46.5 0.5
Myles Turner IND 25 C-F 30 30 100.0% 212 450 47.1 47.6 -0.5
Ivica Zubac LAC 24 C 30 30 100.0% 188 389 48.3 47.5 0.9
Jakob Poeltl SAS 26 C 21 21 100.0% 173 357 48.5 49.5 -1.0
Darius Bazley OKC 21 F 28 28 100.0% 178 364 48.9 46.0 2.9
Pat Connaughton MIL 28 G 32 32 100.0% 190 386 49.2 44.9 4.3
Jonas Valanciunas NOP 29 C 31 31 100.0% 222 444 50.0 48.8 1.2
Nikola Jokic DEN 26 C 24 24 100.0% 216 415 52.0 48.8 3.3
if you expand the list to all 178 players to have faced 200+ FGAs on defense, jokic's 52.0% allowed is still the 4th highest/worst...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:11 pm
by Mike G
That's a lot of numbers (including 100% games/games played for everyone) to not bother with
effective FG%. I mean, it's not that awesome to hold anyone to 40% from the 3-point arc. Seriously. Plain old FG% no longer exists in any practical sense.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 22/on-off/
Denver shoots .082 better eFG% when Jokic is on the floor, and opponents shoot .065 worse.
They also have 2.8 fewer turnovers per 100 poss. when he's running things.
Somewhere we should be able to find Opp FTA in the on/off setting.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:13 am
by bchaikin
also from stats.nba.com:
shot defense 0'-5':
44.7% 110/246 gobert
61.7% 127/206 jokic
jokic shot defense far worse in close to the basket, allows some 15% higher FG% than gobert...
shot defense 0'-9':
44.1% 138/313 gobert
56.8% 147/259 jokic
jokic shot defense far worse, allows some 12%-13% higher FG% than gobert within 10' of the basket...
Combine the top 10 player-seasons of the last 2 years, and as far ahead of the pack he was last year (if this makes any sense), Jokic is that far ahead of his own 20-21 performance this season.
these are
huge FG% allowed differences - so you can quote numbers like PER, WS, BPM, and On/Off numbers all you want, but until they attempt to include
individual player shot defense (and the numbers above are publicly available at stats.nba.com) they are wholly inaccurate in determining which players generate the most wins for their teams and will always favor players who excel on offense versus players who excel on defense...
and as both gobert and jokic have faced the most FGAs on defense on their respective teams (jokic 90 more than any nuggets teammate, gobert some 200+ more than any jazz teammate), and utah is on pace for 60+ wins and denver just 40+ wins, a
key reason why is the excellent shot defense of gobert versus the poor shot defense of jokic...
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:39 pm
by Mike G
It's fairly challenging to compare an all-time great offensive player with an all-time great defensive player, even when they are both centers. Wilt vs Russell had people taking sides, and that debate may still not have reached a consensus. Team success vs individual numbers, again.
Of course those Celtics were loaded with all-stars, all-NBA, and future hall of famers; and they regularly were the best team in regular season and playoffs. Wilt teams only beat Russ teams one time in the playoffs?
If Denver and Utah meet in the playoffs, it will be similar. Among the top 10 players from each team (in minutes), the Nuggets have:
1 of top 7 TS% (and 4 of the top 10)
1 of the top 5 in 3FG% (5 of top 10)
1 of the top 4 in TReb% (5 of 10)
1 of top 3 Ast% (6 of 10)
1 of top 7 ORtg (4 of 10)
1 of top 3 DRtg (3 of 10)
1 of top 6 PER (5 of 10)
1 of top 9 WS/48 (2 of 10)
1 of top 8 BPM (2 of 10)
In each case, that 1 is Jokic.
Another tidbit: Turnover%
Jokic 14.7, Gobert 15.2
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:01 pm
by Mike G
Here are the players averaging at least 10 assists per 100 possessions. Also showing points and turnovers per100; and for this group, an
expected TO rate predicted by their Pts and Ast rates, minimizing the difference.
Ranked from best to worst:
Code: Select all
per100: Ast Pts TO ?TO diff
Paul 15.0 21.6 3.5 5.7 -2.2
Dejounte 12.1 25.5 3.4 5.0 -1.6
Lillard 10.1 31.1 3.9 4.7 -.8
LaMelo 11.9 29.1 4.6 5.1 -.5
Jokic 11.3 40.0 5.2 5.5 -.3
Trae 13.3 39.3 5.9 6.1 -.2
Lowry 11.9 20.1 4.7 4.7 .0
Rubio 11.4 22.1 4.7 4.6 .1
Draymond 11.8 13.5 4.9 4.3 .6
Giddey 10.2 17.8 4.8 4.1 .7
Garland 10.5 27.6 5.4 4.6 .8
Doncic 12.2 36.7 6.6 5.6 1.0
Westbrook 10.9 25.8 6.0 4.7 1.3
Harden 12.8 27.8 6.7 5.4 1.3
?TO = .31*Ast + .05*Pts
Chris Paul has always had great/low TO relative to all that he does. Dejounte Murray is a surprise contender.
Those at the bottom may try and do
too much, relative to their handles and/or concentration.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:29 pm
by Crow
Win impact is not necessarily linear
per increments of individual counted stat value (despite the metric premise) or equally across all teams, especially at the extremes.
A simulator probably could / should demonstrate both points.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:27 am
by Mike G
shot defense 0'-9':
44.1% 138/313 gobert
56.8% 147/259 jokic
OK, I tracked down the source of these numbers at nba.com. Here's a table of per game avg 'faced opponent' FG, FGA, FG%, and normal FG% in that range. FG- is
FG denied beyond the normal.
Code: Select all
0-9 ft G dFG dFGA dFG% nFG% FG- Stl FG- dPPG
Gobert 29 5.1 11.3 .447 .578 1.49 .77 1.95 3.90
Jokic 26 5.7 10.0 .568 .586 .18 1.33 .98 1.96
Gobert cuts .131 from the FG% of FGA within 9' of the rim.
.131 * 11.3 = 1.49 , so he stops about 1.5 shots per game that guys normally make.
Jokic gives up almost the normal FG% and only forces another .18 misses per game.
But if we add steals into the FG denial equation -- actually a steal is equal to
a forced miss and a rebound -- there's less difference between them. The 2nd
FG- just adds Stl*0.6, since about 60% of both guys' defensive confrontations seem to be in this 10' range.
Gobert is about
2 ppg better than Jokic on defense inside 10'.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:15 pm
by Mike G
update on the MVP race, according to
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Code: Select all
Prob% mvp? tm W% PER WS WS/48 BPM VORP
23.2 Giannis Mil .649 31.1 5.3 .273 10.1 2.9
16.1 Jokic Den .515 32.3 5.2 .272 13.3 3.5
15.0 Curry GSW .794 23.7 5.1 .218 8.1 2.8
14.8 Durant Brk .697 25.7 4.6 .214 7.2 2.4
10.9 Gobert Uta .735 25.7 6.5 .289 5.6 2.1
I've replaced the per-game averages with some 'advanced' stats. Gobert now the strong favorite by Win Shares.
Giannis' stock rises with the Bucks' winning. Jokic takes a dive when the Nuggets go sub-.500
Steph's numbers are all well down from last year.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:33 pm
by Mike G
Season at 44%
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.3 Nikola Jokić Den .626 30.9 15.9 7.0 1.6 4.2 .9 3.24
14.0 Stephen Curry GSW .603 32.9 5.8 6.0 1.4 3.6 .5 2.50
13.4 Antetokounmpo Mil .593 32.4 12.9 6.1 1.2 3.8 1.8 3.08
12.8 Kevin Durant Brk .612 31.6 7.5 5.0 .6 3.2 .9 2.37
12.5 Rudy Gobert Uta .706 21.6 17.6 1.2 .8 2.1 2.7 2.29
11.2 James Harden Brk .573 23.3 8.0 8.8 1.5 4.9 .7 2.02
10.9 Domantas Sabonis Ind .627 20.7 13.2 4.1 1.2 3.2 .4 1.92
10.7 Trae Young Atl .567 27.2 4.2 8.6 1.0 4.3 .1 1.98
10.6 DeMar DeRozan Chi .576 27.3 5.3 4.2 1.0 2.2 .3 1.93
10.5 Donovan Mitchell Uta .566 28.8 4.5 5.3 1.7 3.3 .2 2.03
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.3 Joel Embiid Phl .578 29.3 11.8 4.0 1.2 2.8 1.6 2.64
10.3 Zach LaVine Chi .610 28.1 5.4 4.0 .6 3.0 .4 1.82
10.2 LeBron James LAL .618 29.0 7.1 5.6 1.7 3.3 1.1 2.37
10.0 Jayson Tatum Bos .524 24.0 8.5 3.5 1.1 2.9 .8 1.79
9.8 Karl-A Towns Min .617 26.6 9.5 3.4 1.2 3.8 1.2 2.00
9.4 Chris Paul Phx .562 16.7 4.7 10.2 2.1 2.6 .3 1.71
9.3 Jarrett Allen Cle .701 23.5 12.1 2.0 1.1 2.2 1.7 2.05
9.3 Dejounte Murray SAS .492 16.3 8.6 7.8 2.1 2.5 .5 1.79
9.1 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP .591 20.7 14.3 2.5 .6 2.8 1.1 1.85
8.4 Devin Booker Phx .554 26.9 5.6 4.6 1.1 3.0 .4 1.86
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.3 Fred VanVleet Tor .574 19.6 4.9 5.7 1.5 2.8 .6 1.42
8.2 Julius Randle NYK .508 18.4 10.3 4.8 .8 3.7 .7 1.44
8.2 LaMelo Ball Cha .543 19.2 8.2 7.4 2.0 3.6 .5 1.79
8.1 Anthony Davis LAL .559 22.9 9.8 2.6 1.2 2.3 2.1 1.90
8.1 Jimmy Butler Mia .586 25.8 6.7 5.5 2.7 2.1 .4 2.35
8.1 Russell Westbrook LAL .513 17.8 7.9 7.3 1.2 4.9 .3 1.32
8.1 Clint Capela Atl .553 12.9 16.5 1.6 1.0 .8 2.0 1.68
7.9 Ja Morant Mem .565 26.8 6.6 6.6 1.4 3.6 .4 2.11
7.9 John Collins Atl .632 19.9 9.1 2.1 .8 1.3 1.4 1.55
7.8 Kr. Porziņģis Dal .553 24.5 9.8 2.6 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.07
e82 31-41 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.7 Paul George LAC .522 24.4 6.9 5.1 2.2 4.4 .4 1.81
7.7 Luka Dončić Dal .532 25.3 8.6 8.3 1.2 5.0 .5 2.11
7.5 Shai G-Alexander OKC .518 21.6 4.6 4.8 1.0 2.4 .8 1.46
7.4 Darius Garland Cle .589 22.6 3.3 7.3 1.5 4.0 .1 1.50
7.3 Christian Wood Hou .540 17.0 12.4 2.2 .7 2.2 1.1 1.46
7.3 Bradley Beal Was .531 22.1 4.7 5.6 1.0 3.4 .3 1.42
7.3 Jrue Holiday Mil .571 20.0 5.0 6.6 1.8 2.9 .6 1.58
7.2 Jusuf Nurkić Por .607 18.2 15.0 3.0 1.5 3.2 .7 1.80
7.2 Nikola Vučević Chi .495 15.3 12.8 3.3 1.1 1.8 1.3 1.59
7.1 Andrew Wiggins GSW .580 24.2 5.4 2.1 .9 2.0 .7 1.51
7.0 Damian Lillard Por .541 20.6 4.3 6.4 .6 2.9 .4 1.36
#42-50: Harrell, Ayton, Myles Turner, Miles Bridges, Brunson, W Carter Jr, Love, Bane, A Edwards, Bojan B
51-60: Ingram, Draymond, Conley, Derrick White, Portis, Lowry, J Jackson Jr, T Harris, Brogdon