APBRmetrics

Kamagate, 79% efg% in FranceProA, 86% in Euro Cup. Not that tough leagues.

Different styles, but Wembanyama in ProA at just 56% efg%. Still less than 29% from 3 and just 23% over last 5 games.

Wembanyama 35% higher than Kamagate on a simple efficiency measure but had 250% of the usage rate of Kamagate to get there.
Kamagate with moderate leads of both kinds of rebounding. Wembanyama with a moderate lead on block rate.

Their teams play tomorrow.



What kind of shooter will Wembanyama be in NBA in long-run? I dunno. But starting slow and low would not surprise me.

Moving from playing once or twice a week to the NBA schedule will be an adjustment, as will 3pt distance and of course quality if competition. Will he have a role similar to what he choose for himself? We'll see eventually.

Wembanyama, 4 for 11 from field including 1 for 5 from 3pt land. No assists and 5 fouls. 6 blocks though and a win.

Kamagate with a moderate game.

The only non "veteran" in top 100 on DARKO projection is Garuba.

11 more sophomores in second 100 but only 4 big names.

Zero freshmen in top 200 DARKO projections.
Kessler at 216, then Banchero, Minott and Murray are only other freshmen in top 300.

For teams who have stars and can attract veteran role players, most draft picks are not attractive in the now. Only 13% of the draftees in last 2 years are in top 300 projections or probably similar in current performance.

Sochan down to 37th in draft class on BPM.

J Davis 44th, Hardy 42nd.



Mathurin slips to 25th.

12 of this year's draft class have played 600 plus minutes, 9 more over 300. Just over half have played 100 or less, with 10 playing not at all.

Paying and using a roster spot on someone who rarely plays is not so hot in the now.

4 over +1 on BPM, 7 total over 0, 9 total over -1. Decent right away is pretty rare. More than decent performance right away is almost unique without a minute criteria, unique with one. (Kessler.)

O Robinson, 31st on my final big board after on & off being higher. Undrafted by GMs and not in ESPN's top 60. Would be 11th best on BPM if put with that draft class.


DarkStar48 emphasized Chandler and he is currently outperforming draft pick with 15th best BPM.

I put Vince Williams 12th (and he had other support here) and he is 12th on BPM.

Walker Kessler, 9th of my big board. Higher than anybody seen. ESPN made a late move to put him up to 22. Highest BPM of any draftee with more than trivial minutes.

S Sharpe, lowest among minute qualified rookies and sophomores on LeBron at bball-index. Barely made my first round as a hedge. Was anyone lower? I'd have to check, but not at the moment. ESPN, with their vast interest in / influence by prep games, had him 7th and debated puting him first. 30th on BPM.

Eason tonight as a starter, 16pts on good shooting, 10 rebounds. 1 foul. Best raw team +/- on the court.

2022 draft on BPM, 300 plus minute qualifiers:

Kessler 1 (9th on my board)
Murray up to 3 (1st to me)
Banchero 5 (5th on my board)
Eason 6 (3rd to me)

Combined, 18 "spots" on my big board, performing at 15 spots among qualifiers.

Worst qualified performers by BPM: McGowens (not on my board at all) and Branham (a middling rank from me). 9 players worse than these but without many minutes were ranked lower by me than consensus, often by huge amounts.

Messier in the middle.

Based on a monster game last night by Eason and a bad one by Murray, they flip BPM rankings. Eason now 3rd, Murray 6th.

I am reasonably to very satisfied with 8 of my big board's top 10. The 2 I am not that happy with were Ivey and J Smith. I was lower than consensus on both but still gave too much credence to consensus on them.

I also spent too much time thinking about beyond the top 10.

Hardy, I hedged and gave him a generous 34th ranking. Drafted 37th. 41st on BPM. The hypesters at ESPN went with 25th after being way way higher earlier.

Bouknight in 2021 draft of course but worth noting (to me) that he is 50th on BPM and as such the lowest of any player over 100 career minutes. Consensus was way higher on him than I was.

Ziare Williams drafted 10th. Not on my draft board. 39th on career to date BPM. Worse in year 2 than yr 1 on almost every major stat except defensive rebounding.

Mobley was my #1 (not Cade) and is #1 on career to date BPM.

With only 7 above neutral in 2021 draft, teams are generally getting role players, good and bad, or bad projected "stars" to date. A bad to date projected star is a very bad draft outcome in multiple ways.

Few had Bassey on their big board. I did, pretty high. 5th best BPM among those with meaningful minutes.

Dyson Daniels, lower offensive rating and ts% every month. Both gone from very great to way below average. Defensive ratings in last 2 months worse than first 2 months.

11 of the 2022 lottery picks by GMs are underperforming draft rank on BPM. But they probably still think they got it handled for future...

I probably over-ranked Roddy and under-ranked Griffin. But not too many big regrets.