2022 draft big board

[DarkStar48]

Personally, I would bump both Banchero and Smith to Tier 2, and upgrade Abgaji to Tier 1.

Also, here are nice little references.


Top ESPN100 NCAA prospects, by 2021-22 BPI-RAPM.

https://twitter.com/jessefischer33/stat ... 3829933056

ESPN100 NCAA prospects, by rank.

https://twitter.com/jessefischer33/stat ... 2453393408

[Crow]

Strictly by numbers I would have Banchero and Smith in second tier, especially Banchero. I have had Banchero as low as 12-15th at times in past but I keep raising him back, for role, context, potential. I am usually pretty boldly independent but top 3 I do think about consensus view and may be reticent to go real low.

[DarkStar48]

Will all the talk about NBA teams needing scoring wings who can defend, it is odd that VCU forward Vincent “Vince” Williams Jr. is projected to go undrafted. He had one of the highest overall (and particularly defensive) RAPM — of any version — last CBB season.

Williams averaged in 32.4 MPG about 14.1 PTS, 6.0 REB and 3.0 AST per gm. on 62.9% TS, with 68.8%/43.6%/38.7%/81.4% splits for the rim/mid-range/3P/FT.

[Crow]

My big board is higher on V Williams than any other I've seen and by a very large distance. Most boards bloated with overrated players.

This RAPM estimate here is even higher. I've been creeping him up. Not sure if I'll go higher but maybe. The vanilla RAPM at hoop-explorer.com only had him at 86th best. Will have to think further on the BPI-RAPM and the difference with vanilla RAPM. BPM against top 50 opponents is not special.

Got a lot better in conference play. The shooting / scoring efficiency is amazing. Turnovers are about the only issue. Offensive rebounding is not a problem but used to be better. Very strong defensive takeaway numbers for a perimeter.

[eminence]

Been a minute since I've been on the board, but I appreciate the independent approach of your board Crow, a lot of consensus repeating from a lot of other sources.

I haven't thought much past the the lotto projected guys. Also very high on Eason, so I like that.

Why so low on Dyson Daniels? He and Sochan are two guys I'm quite a bit higher on than you seem to be (I'd lean later lotto for both). You have two guys very high I've strongly felt should be ranked similarly but seem far apart in a lot of places - Mark Williams and Kessler. I'm just not sold on where to put them

I don't know anything about internationals or Sharpe this season.

I only feel comfortable with the very top guys right now, should stretch out to a top 20 or so at some point.

Tier 1
1. Holmgren
2. Smith

Tier 2
3. Eason
4. Murray
5. Banchero

Tier 3
???

[Crow]

Daniels in Showcase had very weak 3, had half the normal ft rate and was just ok on A / TO. That sounds like a weak secondary or tertiary initiator to me. In late exhibitions games he shot well and gathered boards but raw +/- went to team average awful. I don't really trust that exhibition play.

Sochan, under 30% from 3 season and finished last 10 games at 8 for 33. Passer? Maybe... but A/TO of just 1.1. Comparatively weak in conference.

I'll accept defensive ability / effort but other guys did more in the boxscore.

I might have Kessler and Williams too high but why are Daniels and Sochan getting vaulted up so high, mainly on defense, when Williams and Kessler have more defensive boxscore and more offensive impacts?

Can Daniels stay with NBA point guards? I dunno. Is Sochan's switchability really going to matter that much? Isn't he just going to pretty much guard forwards like typical forwards?

I sorta like them but I am just not as excited as others or doing as much imagining.


Yeah, our top 5s are pretty close, closer than I find elsewhere.

[DarkStar48]

Shaedon Sharpe is the weirdest prospect I can ever remember.

He was a practical unknown for much of his high school career, and then almost exclusively because of his AAU play, became the top recruit in his class towards his senior year. He lacks the awards/accomplishments that most elite draftees usually compile by now. Moreover, he missed his one-and-done college season, so all public assessments are based on pre-college scouting reports and NBA Combine results.

Honestly speaking, Sharpe is pretty much a black box talent-wise where people see what they want to see. Any lottery selection by a team inherently requires an act of faith.

Special note: Kennedy Chandler, in terms of later tier placement, is a wildcard to me as the best point-of-attack 3-and-D guard in the draft.

I only have a firm opinion on the first tier.

Tier 1:
1. Holmgren
2. Agbaji
3. Murray
4. Eason

Tier 2:
???
.
.
.

???

[DarkStar48]

@Crow , I see Banchero is back in your top tier. Any particular change prompt this? Still not a fan of taking either him or Smith in the top 4.

Agbaji appears to have dropped significantly from the last iteration. I’m still high on him as the best two-way perimeter player in the 2023 draft.

Also, from the mock drafts/projections I’ve seen, Vincent “Vince” Williams Jr. is somehow STILL expected to go undrafted.¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Crow]

Banchero in tier 1 is cosmetic change over top of tier 2. I did it because I tend to go too rogue on some consensus top picks. Perhaps his context of teammates was too good and he did not get chance or have need to do more.

Agbaji, I gave in a bit on age issue and concerns about not doing enough passing.

[DarkStar48]

Honestly speaking, outside of Holmgren and Murray, I am not very confident in the trajectories of any of the draft prospects.

I feel that Branham and Sochan are especially being overrated by the consensus.

Finally, Chandler’s potential value as an elite point-of-attack defensive guard is not being appropriately reflected in his projected draft position.

[Crow]

The final version from before draft:

2022 NBA draft big board 81

Tier 1
1 Murray
2 Holmgren
3 Eason
4 J Smith
5 Banchero

Tier 2
6 M Williams
7 Mathurin
8 Ivey
9 Kessler
10 Liddell
11 Roddy
12 V Williams
13 Koloko
14 Jaylin Williams
15 Branham
16 Braun
17 Terry
18 Agbaji


Tier 3
19 T Williams
20 J Davis
21 Griffin
22 LaRavia
23 Jalen Williams
24 Nembhard
25 Sochan
26 Sharpe
27 Chandler
28 Washington
29 Daniels
30 B Williams


31 O Robinson
32 Procida
33 W Moore
34 Hardy
35 Mobley
36 Duren
37 Brajkovic
38 Ellis


Tier 4
39 J Lewis
40 J Walker
41 Cockburn
42 Dieng
43 Manek
44 Bean
45 Jovic
46 Beauchamp
47 F White
48 Gillespie

Tier 5
49 K Brown
50 Rollins
51 Barlow
52 Lofton
53 Matkovic
54 Makoundou
55 Foster
56 Kamagate
57 Barcello
58 Spagnolo

59 Pippen Jr
60 Samar
61 Kai Sotto
62 Molinar
63 T Brown

[Crow]

Murray started well but has faded a lot.

J Smith has been quite bad outside a few games. But good on Sunday.

Kessler, 3rd best BPM in draft class of those with significant minutes. As with others, DRIP and DARKO not moved much from initial rookie expectations but he is a bit better than the others recently checked.

[Crow]

Rookie performance check using BPM estimate. I may use other metrics later. But BPM is more comprehensive and more meaningful imo than using a few per game stats, as is being done elsewhere.

Eason, drafted 17th. 3rd on BPM for those who have played 50 plus total minutes. 3rd on my draft board.

J LaRavia, drafted 19th. 28th to ESPN. 20th on BPM counting everybody. 22nd on my draft board.

J Ivey, drafted 5th. 4th to ESPN. 17th on BPM. 8th on my board.

S. Sharpe, drafted 7th. 6th to ESPN. Currently 24th on BPM. 26th on my draft board.

Sochan, drafted 9th. 12th on draft twitter consensus survey. 15th to ESPN. Currently 34th on BPM. 25th on my draft board.

W. Kessler, drafted 22nd. 23rd to ESPN. Currently 6th on BPM estimate overall, 2nd anong minutes qualifiers. Was 9th on my draft board. Not a "surprise" to me.

A. Nembhard, drafted 31st in 2022 NBA Draft. 34th on final ESPN board. 24th on mine. Currently 16th in draft class on BPM estimate.

Those are a few highlight cases.

[Crow]

Sharpe down to 33rd on BPM now among 2022 draftees.

Davis, 44th.

Draft twitter favorite Hardy 42nd after last night. Other twitter favored Watson, Rollins and Keels bring up absolute rear of those who have played. Sochan, Moore, Washington and Beauchamp are all 30-40 on BPM. I was lower to much lower than draft consensus on all the names listed above.

Koloko, Agbaji, Terry and Braun are some of the players who have disappointed me relative to my ranking of them.

Daniels I probably under-ranked. 10th on BPM in a weak class.

I ranked I Mobley 35th when very few had him top 60 or even close to that. Currently 3rd best on BPM, albeit tiny minutes.

Kessler and Eason are 1, 2 for those with decent minutes. I was way higher than anyone else in draft twitter compilations.

Banchero currently 5th among those with decent minutes. Exactly where I put him on my big board.

Nembhard moves up a bit to 12th overall. Was way higher on him than consensus. V Williams to 13th, same deal.

Dieng has been pretty weak so far but not as weak as the majority, so my moderate rank on him currently appears low.

Ivey 20th on BPM. I was lower on him than almost all, though I still ranked higher than that.

[Crow]

Looking at ESPN commentary from 14 months ago, only 2 of Givony & Schmitz's top 14 have done much in the league so far. Tons of early over-hyped prospects based on prep play.

They ranked Hardy 3rd last fall. Drafted 37th. Currently 44th on BPM.

Houstan ranked 6th then. Drafted 32nd. Currently 28th on BPM.

Nzosa ranked 7th. Drafted 54th and still overseas.

Watson ranked 9th then, drafted 30th, currently 45th on BPM.

Davison, ranked 13th then, drafted 53rd, currently 42nd on BPM.

I was, based on last season performance, way way lower on all, only ranking Hardy in my top 60. At the end and from my beginning in December.