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Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:12 pm
by Crow
On average of these 3 metrics, Kessler is highest.
Nobody in draft twitter compilations were higher on him than I was at 9th. Average rank on one survey that included prominent media was 25th. 94 self reporting from Twitter, the average was 39th. ESPN /Draft Express put him at 23rd and Vecenie ended up at 25th. (Some analytic models rated him as high I did and even higher on a couple.)
Same basic story with Eason. Nobody seen anywhere on twitter higher than my 3rd place ranking and almost nobody anywhere close.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:20 am
by Mike G
Comparison of Kessler's first 31 games and Rudy Gobert's first 31 games of his 2nd season (2014-15, age 22)
Code: Select all
player G GS mpg TS% eFG% ORb% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORt DRt GmSc
Gobert 31 2 18.7 .648 .619 15.2 20.4 7.5 1.6 7.6 18.2 13.5 122 104 7.4
Kessler 31 4 17.7 .731 .754 14.2 19.0 4.8 .6 8.6 13.0 12.4 140 110 7.9
Gobert would go on to start 37 games for the Jazz that year; replacing Enes Kanter.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 4:41 am
by Crow
Interesting.
Kessler was a huge piece in the Jazz trade haul. Certainly looking like Connelly way overpaid, at least by EPM where he is 72nd best. DRIP and DARKO projections are still much much higher, lagged to the change. DARKO has been going down slightly for 2.4 seasons though his rate of change has broken down thru the general trendline this season.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 10:53 pm
by Crow
Banchero's efg% is still less than 49%, is 13th on team and is only .016 above the worst on team. But 2nd on team for fgas and 50% above 3rd.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2022 10:55 am
by Mike G
And he leads the team in FTA/G by a wide margin, so he's not much below the team or league avg TS% -- and improving:
Code: Select all
mo. G Usg% 3fg% FT% TS% ORt DRt As/G
Oct 7 31.2 .290 .733 .539 109 112 3.9
Nov 8 28.3 .250 .731 .560 105 123 3.4
Dec 12 26.9 .370 .780 .564 111 112 4.4
Not sure why he was taking so many shots in the early weeks; perhaps because of other guys missing games?
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2023 4:36 pm
by Mike G
Season at 48% and rookies total 50 projected eWins.
Including all with >200 minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.4 Paolo Banchero Orl 1096 .534 19.3 7.5 3.4 1.0 3.1 .6 1.32
4.2 Be. Mathurin Ind 1120 .549 18.9 4.8 1.5 .8 2.3 .1 .88
3.8 Walker Kessler Uta 712 .694 12.4 12.1 .9 .5 1.2 3.4 1.29
3.4 Jalen Duren Det 951 .624 9.9 12.5 1.1 .8 1.7 1.0 .89
3.3 Tari Eason Hou 734 .507 12.0 10.0 1.3 1.9 1.8 .9 1.02
3.2 Jabari Smith Hou 1131 .504 11.5 8.6 .9 .6 1.6 1.1 .64
3.2 Jaden Ivey Det 1134 .505 14.3 4.9 4.0 1.1 3.3 .3 .68
2.8 Jalen Williams OKC 971 .572 13.3 4.6 2.9 1.2 2.1 .6 .65
2.1 Keegan Murray Sac 1007 .551 11.9 5.0 .8 1.1 1.3 .8 .46
2.1 AJ Griffin Atl 746 .567 14.3 3.6 1.3 1.7 1.3 .2 .63
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.6 Jeremy Sochan SAS 833 .500 9.4 6.9 2.5 1.2 2.4 .8 .43
1.5 Andrew Nembhard Ind 943 .571 9.5 4.2 4.0 1.2 2.0 .3 .38
1.1 Shaedon Sharpe Por 727 .544 12.1 4.8 .7 .7 1.2 .3 .34
1.1 Dyson Daniels NOP 556 .543 7.4 6.4 3.4 1.4 1.6 .4 .44
.9 Christian Koloko Tor 576 .525 7.0 7.6 .8 .6 1.0 2.7 .34
.8 Mark Williams Cha 133 .608 14.3 14.7 1.0 1.7 2.8 1.5 1.47
.7 Orlando Robinson Mia 172 .573 11.6 9.5 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.00
.7 MarJon Beauchamp Mil 436 .525 12.5 5.6 1.2 1.1 2.4 .2 .37
.6 David Roddy Mem 673 .486 10.1 4.8 1.1 .7 1.5 .6 .20
.6 A.J. Green Mil 150 .676 16.8 4.3 1.5 .8 .9 .0 .85
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.6 Patrick Baldwin GSW 101 .622 18.7 6.3 .8 2.2 1.7 .3 1.26
.5 Nikola Jović Mia 204 .522 12.3 5.6 1.5 1.2 1.7 .3 .52
.4 Kennedy Chandler Mem 176 .431 8.1 4.8 5.8 1.6 2.7 1.0 .56
.3 Ousmane Dieng OKC 220 .500 7.7 6.0 2.5 .8 1.1 .6 .34
.2 Kevon Harris Orl 328 .542 8.6 5.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 .3 .17
.2 Jake LaRavia Mem 331 .556 8.0 5.4 1.5 1.0 1.6 .3 .12
.1 Malaki Branham SAS 478 .513 9.7 3.2 2.2 .8 1.9 .2 .07
.1 Max Christie LAL 261 .516 6.9 5.7 1.3 .4 .9 .4 .05
.0 Caleb Houstan Orl 484 .553 7.3 5.0 1.0 .4 .7 .2 -.01
.0 Christian Braun Den 506 .510 6.8 5.1 1.0 .6 .9 .5 -.02
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2023 11:24 pm
by Crow
On DARKO projection:
Jaylin Williams, 66th of 66th.
Sochan, 63rd, Ivey 62, J Smith 61. Sharpe about 42.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:09 am
by Crow
Banchero,
+0.8 on EPM
-1.6 on Raptor
-0.7 on DRIP
-0.5 on DARKO
Average of EPM and Raptor current estimates is about the same as the two projections- slightly negative.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:35 am
by Mike G
I wonder why a below-avg player gets 34 mpg; and notice the Magic have 11 players who go 20+ mpg, but only 3 have played in 40 of their 45 games; another 3 have played in at least 30. The rest have missed major chunks of the season.
Their injury list is short now, so he's playing a bit less, a bit more efficiently it seems.
At ESPN, his RPM among power forwards ranks #13 at 1.95 -- most of this is defensive value, they say.
His Wins there rank just above Draymond and Zion.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/6
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:00 pm
by Crow
Neutral on these or other metrics puts a player comfortably above the median player. Small negative is near average.
Ryan Davis RAPM has Banchero at -1.1. Luck adjusted at -0.8.
BPM at -0.4.
RPM and Raptor are the outliers.
These metrics may not clarify for all. But this far into the survey, it is 2 positive, 6 negative.
If one is ok using an average of all, it is slight negative (with at least a moderate error band).
Can think what want. This is not unusual. Example Fwiw.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:08 pm
by Crow
Raw plus minus has issues / limitations but it is the only thing that matters for game result. It is more meaningful within a team than across teams.
Banchero's raw team +/- is -5.1 pts / 100p, about 1/3rd worse than team average and 9th overall (0.3 from being 11th). It is 6th of 7 minute leaders. His on / off is 11th at -3.5.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:00 pm
by Mike G
At 59% of the season, rookies total 51.3 projected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.3 Paolo Banchero Orl .540 19.1 7.1 3.3 1.1 3.0 .5 1.28
4.5 Walker Kessler Uta .681 12.9 12.8 1.1 .6 1.3 3.3 1.38
4.2 Be. Mathurin Ind .547 18.6 5.0 1.4 .7 2.2 .1 .87
3.5 Jalen Duren Det .638 10.5 12.8 1.1 .9 1.7 1.1 .99
3.3 Tari Eason Hou .516 12.0 9.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.01
3.1 Jalen Williams OKC .569 13.2 4.8 2.9 1.4 1.9 .7 .70
3.1 Keegan Murray Sac .598 13.5 5.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 .7 .65
3.1 Jabari Smith Hou .496 11.4 8.5 1.0 .6 1.6 1.1 .64
3.0 Jaden Ivey Det .505 14.0 5.0 4.2 1.1 3.4 .3 .63
2.3 AJ Griffin Atl .602 14.9 3.6 1.4 1.4 1.1 .2 .69
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.8 Jeremy Sochan SAS .508 10.0 7.0 2.5 1.2 2.4 .6 .46
1.4 Mark Williams Cha .630 16.1 13.1 .5 1.7 2.0 2.3 1.63
1.3 Andrew Nembhard Ind .528 9.2 3.9 4.4 1.3 2.2 .3 .33
1.0 Orlando Robinson Mia .577 10.1 10.7 1.7 1.2 1.2 .9 .92
1.0 Shaedon Sharpe Por .546 11.8 4.6 .8 .6 1.2 .3 .29
.9 Dyson Daniels NOP .519 6.8 6.5 3.6 1.4 1.9 .5 .34
.8 Christian Koloko Tor .526 7.3 7.9 .9 .5 1.0 2.5 .39
.6 MarJon Beauchamp Mil .509 12.0 5.4 1.3 1.0 2.3 .1 .33
.5 David Roddy Mem .491 10.1 5.0 1.1 .8 1.6 .6 .21
.5 A.J. Green Mil .616 16.0 3.9 1.4 .7 1.1 .0 .68
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:41 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 11:24 pm
On DARKO projection:
Jaylin Williams, 66th of 66th.
Sochan, 63rd, Ivey 62, J Smith 61. Sharpe about 42.
Does this mean the named players "project" to be worse somehow than others with 5 or 10 minutes all year? Weaker than several who have yet to score a point or get a rebound?
Or are you advocating that we should shun DARKO, if it's really this bad at ranking players?
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:28 pm
by Crow
The projections were as reported.
Do I think DARKO projections are strong or always strong early? I don't know without further research. Probably not always good. Their projections will get better with time & play.
But how good or bad are they early compared to other estimates or preceding expectations? Starts with watching, then the observer can opine when and how they want to. I am not moved to at the moment but maybe sometime.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:42 pm
by Crow
Jaylin Williams still last on current Darko projection at 67. Sochan, Smith and Ivey, all still in 60s. Sharpe has fallen to 59th.
I would expect most or all to eventually improve but I expect several will stay below or far below draft rank and mock consensus.
I was below consensus on my big board for the latter 4. Smith only by a few places but those places are very important. Way lower on the other 3. (Higher on Williams.) My stance on these players is mostly about my evaluations but that DARKO agrees so far on 4 is worth knowing and worth something to me. We both may be wrong but we may also be more right than others. I dunno if I'll check at end of season or in future seasons but helps to have a mention down.