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Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:57 pm
by Mike G
There's a Big 4 in eW/min, separated mostly by their minutes to date.
Joker is leading in so many efficiencies:
Code: Select all
PER TS% DRb% Ast% WS/48 BPM
Jokic Jokic Jokic Jokic Jokic Jokic
Embiid Gobert Jonas Tyrese Butler Luka
Luka Claxton Sabonis Harden Embiid Curry
Giannis Plumlee Nurkic Luka Lillard Embiid
Davis Clarke Vucevic Young Luka Giannis
Leading by large margins in all the b-r.com Advanced columns.
He's only 4th in RPM (after Tatum, Embiid, LeBron) and in rpm-Wins (Tatum, Luka, Randle)
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/WINS
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2023 3:45 pm
by Mike G
Season is at 85%. A top 60:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.3 Nikola Jokić Den .688 27.0 13.5 8.5 1.2 3.8 .7 2.98
14.9 Joel Embiid Phl .632 34.3 11.3 3.7 1.1 3.6 1.7 3.07
14.3 Luka Dončić Dal .598 30.8 9.1 7.1 1.6 3.7 .5 2.84
13.6 Jayson Tatum Bos .589 27.9 8.7 4.0 1.0 2.8 .7 2.30
13.2 Giannis A Mil .583 33.5 12.7 5.2 .8 4.4 .9 3.03
12.0 Julius Randle NYK .569 23.8 10.5 3.5 .7 2.9 .3 1.95
11.6 Domantas Sabonis Sac .652 18.5 13.8 5.9 .9 3.1 .5 2.02
11.6 Shai G-Alexander OKC .610 29.4 4.7 4.5 1.8 2.9 1.0 2.25
11.1 Damian Lillard Por .633 30.0 5.0 6.0 .9 3.2 .3 2.24
10.4 Donovan Mitchell Cle .601 28.1 4.5 4.1 1.7 2.7 .4 2.05
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.1 Lauri Markkanen Uta .635 25.1 9.0 1.6 .7 2.0 .6 1.91
9.9 Nikola Vučević Chi .581 17.6 12.5 2.9 .7 1.8 .8 1.71
9.7 Jimmy Butler Mia .618 24.0 7.1 4.8 2.1 1.8 .4 2.17
9.7 Bam Adebayo Mia .583 20.4 10.3 2.9 1.2 2.7 .9 1.73
9.6 Ja Morant Mem .544 27.3 6.5 7.5 1.2 3.8 .3 2.22
9.5 Kr. Porziņģis Was .607 24.0 9.6 2.3 .9 2.4 1.7 1.99
9.3 Anthony Davis LAL .615 26.3 13.2 2.2 1.1 2.5 2.2 2.58
9.2 Jaylen Brown Bos .577 25.4 7.0 2.9 1.2 3.0 .4 1.79
9.2 LeBron James LAL .574 26.6 8.2 5.5 1.0 3.1 .6 2.22
9.1 Anthony Edwards Min .558 21.8 6.0 3.5 1.6 3.4 .7 1.46
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.0 DeMar DeRozan Chi .583 23.3 4.7 4.1 1.0 2.2 .5 1.59
9.0 James Harden Phl .609 20.9 6.6 9.3 1.1 3.3 .5 1.90
8.9 Pascal Siakam Tor .549 20.6 7.8 4.8 .7 2.4 .5 1.63
8.9 De'Aaron Fox Sac .590 23.7 4.8 5.2 1.4 2.8 .3 1.70
8.7 Trae Young Atl .564 24.2 3.1 8.1 1.2 4.2 .2 1.62
8.6 Stephen Curry GSW .663 30.1 6.5 5.2 1.1 3.5 .4 2.30
8.6 Jalen Brunson NYK .585 23.4 3.7 5.4 1.0 2.1 .3 1.65
8.5 Zach LaVine Chi .595 23.6 4.9 3.2 .9 2.6 .2 1.47
8.4 Deandre Ayton Phx .609 21.0 12.4 1.8 .7 2.2 .9 1.86
8.2 Evan Mobley Cle .579 16.7 10.3 2.5 .9 2.1 1.5 1.44
e82 31-40 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.9 Darius Garland Cle .588 22.4 3.0 7.0 1.5 3.0 .1 1.56
7.8 Kevin Durant Brk .660 30.1 6.8 4.4 .8 3.5 1.5 2.29
7.8 Tyrese Haliburton Ind .615 20.2 3.9 9.0 1.8 2.7 .5 1.76
7.6 Jarrett Allen Cle .661 16.8 11.7 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.57
7.5 Paul George LAC .582 23.0 6.5 4.6 1.4 3.3 .4 1.68
7.4 Nic Claxton Brk .674 15.6 11.4 1.8 1.0 1.6 3.1 1.58
7.1 Devin Booker Phx .584 27.3 4.9 4.9 1.0 2.7 .4 1.97
7.1 Dejounte Murray Atl .538 17.2 5.4 4.6 1.6 2.2 .3 1.23
7.0 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP .604 19.4 14.7 2.0 .3 2.9 .8 1.77
7.0 Jrue Holiday Mil .574 20.0 5.4 6.8 1.2 3.2 .4 1.50
e82 41-50 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.0 Kawhi Leonard LAC .614 24.7 7.0 3.5 1.5 1.8 .6 2.03
6.9 Myles Turner Ind .636 20.2 9.3 1.3 .8 2.0 2.9 1.65
6.7 Rudy Gobert Min .666 16.0 13.7 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.6 1.56
6.7 Brook Lopez Mil .614 18.0 7.6 1.3 .6 1.7 2.9 1.32
6.7 Christian Wood Dal .616 22.0 10.9 1.9 .6 2.5 1.5 1.81
6.6 Kyrie Irving Brk .597 25.1 5.0 4.2 1.0 2.2 .8 1.83
6.5 Aaron Gordon Den .623 19.3 8.6 2.8 .9 1.8 .9 1.54
6.5 Alperen Şengün Hou .592 16.4 11.4 3.9 1.0 3.2 1.2 1.47
6.5 Fred VanVleet Tor .536 16.5 4.4 5.7 1.5 1.9 .6 1.23
6.5 Kyle Kuzma Was .536 19.2 7.7 3.1 .5 3.1 .5 1.19
e82 51-61 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.4 CJ McCollum NOP .534 19.0 4.7 5.1 .8 2.7 .5 1.19
6.4 Josh Giddey OKC .529 16.1 9.0 5.8 1.0 3.4 .5 1.30
6.3 Jaren Jackson Mem .587 21.0 8.4 .9 1.3 2.0 4.0 1.77
6.0 Clint Capela Atl .633 15.0 15.0 .9 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.73
6.0 Paolo Banchero Orl .516 18.0 7.5 3.1 1.0 2.9 .5 1.16
6.0 Bobby Portis Mil .572 17.8 12.6 1.9 .6 1.7 .3 1.60
6.0 Jamal Murray Den .554 19.5 4.7 5.3 1.1 2.4 .2 1.32
6.0 Tyler Herro Mia .555 19.0 6.2 3.9 .8 2.5 .3 1.23
5.9 Bradley Beal Was .591 23.7 4.2 4.8 .9 3.1 .7 1.52
5.9 Desmond Bane Mem .592 23.4 5.7 4.1 1.0 2.5 .5 1.65
5.9 Buddy Hield Ind .610 17.6 5.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 .4 1.09
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:02 pm
by Mike G
Season .933 completed
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.3 Nikola Jokić Den 2272 .690 27.9 13.6 8.5 1.2 3.7 .7 2.99
15.0 Joel Embiid Phl 2150 .635 35.3 11.4 3.8 1.0 3.6 1.8 3.10
13.9 Luka Dončić Dal 2251 .596 31.0 9.1 7.2 1.5 3.6 .5 2.79
13.6 Jayson Tatum Bos 2639 .593 28.9 8.6 3.9 1.0 2.8 .7 2.32
13.1 Giannis A Mil 1959 .587 33.8 12.7 5.3 .9 4.3 .9 3.02
11.6 Julius Randle NYK 2737 .570 24.1 10.4 3.5 .7 2.9 .3 1.92
11.5 Domantas Sabonis Sac 2578 .652 19.0 13.5 5.9 .9 3.0 .5 1.99
11.3 Shai G-Alexander OKC 2269 .609 29.9 4.7 4.4 1.8 2.9 1.0 2.25
10.6 Donovan Mitchell Cle 2312 .598 28.7 4.6 3.9 1.7 2.6 .4 2.06
10.4 Damian Lillard Por 2107 .630 30.3 5.0 6.1 .9 3.3 .3 2.20
e82 11-20 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.8 Nikola Vučević Chi 2571 .590 18.1 12.3 2.8 .8 1.9 .8 1.70
9.7 Jimmy Butler Mia 2036 .621 24.4 6.9 4.9 2.0 1.8 .4 2.15
9.7 Anthony Davis LAL 1695 .617 26.6 12.9 2.2 1.1 2.4 2.1 2.53
9.6 Lauri Markkanen Uta 2238 .632 25.6 9.1 1.6 .7 2.0 .6 1.91
9.6 Kr. Porziņģis Was 2120 .614 24.8 9.5 2.4 .9 2.3 1.7 2.02
9.4 Jaylen Brown Bos 2332 .580 26.2 6.9 3.0 1.2 2.9 .4 1.82
9.4 Bam Adebayo Mia 2535 .580 20.3 10.3 2.9 1.2 2.7 .9 1.67
9.1 Pascal Siakam Tor 2473 .551 21.1 8.0 4.8 .7 2.4 .5 1.64
9.1 DeMar DeRozan Chi 2518 .585 23.4 4.8 4.1 1.1 2.1 .5 1.61
9.0 Ja Morant Mem 1829 .546 27.6 6.4 7.4 1.2 3.8 .3 2.18
e82 21-30 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.8 Kyrie Irving BkDal 2110 .619 24.7 5.3 5.1 1.3 1.8 .6 1.95
8.8 Stephen Curry GSW 1780 .651 29.8 6.5 5.2 1.0 3.4 .3 2.22
8.7 De'Aaron Fox Sac 2291 .592 24.2 4.7 5.2 1.3 2.7 .3 1.69
8.6 LeBron James LAL 1756 .575 26.9 8.3 5.5 1.0 3.2 .5 2.18
8.5 Zach LaVine Chi 2608 .600 24.1 4.7 3.3 .9 2.6 .2 1.46
8.4 Anthony Edwards Min 2671 .558 21.9 5.8 3.6 1.6 3.3 .7 1.42
8.4 Evan Mobley Cle 2588 .583 17.2 10.2 2.6 .9 2.0 1.5 1.46
8.3 Trae Young Atl 2386 .562 24.2 3.2 8.1 1.2 4.3 .1 1.55
8.1 Jalen Brunson NYK 2302 .585 23.5 3.8 5.4 .9 2.1 .2 1.59
8.0 James Harden Phl 1996 .594 20.3 6.6 9.2 1.1 3.3 .5 1.79
e82 31-40 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.8 Deandre Ayton Phx 1916 .608 21.0 12.2 1.7 .7 2.1 .9 1.81
7.7 Darius Garland Cle 2332 .582 22.3 3.0 6.9 1.5 3.0 .1 1.49
7.6 Jarrett Allen Cle 2148 .660 17.2 11.8 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.59
7.6 Devin Booker Phx 1693 .593 28.3 4.9 4.7 1.0 2.8 .4 1.99
7.5 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP 1847 .606 20.0 15.3 2.2 .3 2.9 .9 1.83
7.4 Nic Claxton Brk 2108 .672 15.9 11.2 1.8 1.0 1.5 3.1 1.57
7.4 Mikal Bridges PxBrk 2774 .619 24.7 5.3 5.1 1.3 1.8 .6 1.95
7.2 Kevin Durant Brk 1403 .660 30.6 6.8 4.4 .8 3.5 1.5 2.28
7.1 Tyrese Haliburton Ind 1883 .616 20.3 4.0 8.9 1.7 2.7 .5 1.71
7.1 Paul George LAC 1939 .579 23.3 6.5 4.5 1.5 3.3 .4 1.65
e82 41-50 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.0 Kawhi Leonard LAC 1581 .613 24.8 7.0 3.6 1.5 1.8 .5 2.01
6.8 Brook Lopez Mil 2274 .619 18.6 7.7 1.3 .5 1.7 3.0 1.35
6.8 Dejounte Murray Atl 2510 .531 17.1 5.3 4.7 1.6 2.1 .3 1.21
6.8 Jrue Holiday Mil 2082 .578 20.3 5.4 6.9 1.2 3.2 .4 1.47
6.8 Rudy Gobert Min 2007 .657 15.9 13.8 1.1 .9 2.1 1.6 1.52
6.7 Christian Wood Dal 1672 .614 22.2 10.7 2.2 .7 2.5 1.4 1.80
6.7 Jaren Jackson Mem 1632 .596 22.2 8.5 .9 1.3 2.1 3.9 1.81
6.6 Fred VanVleet Tor 2360 .537 17.1 4.3 5.8 1.5 2.0 .6 1.24
6.6 Myles Turner Ind 1825 .639 20.6 9.3 1.4 .7 2.0 2.8 1.62
6.5 CJ McCollum NOP 2454 .537 19.3 4.7 5.0 .9 2.6 .5 1.20
#51-60: Giddey, Capela, A Gordon, Murray, Sengun, Bane, Herro, Banchero, Portis, Kuzma
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:51 pm
by Mike G
there ya go
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.8 Joel Embiid Phl 2284 .637 35.8 11.5 3.7 1.0 3.6 1.8 3.11
14.3 Nikola Jokić Den 2323 .687 28.2 13.5 8.4 1.2 3.8 .7 2.96
13.7 Luka Dončić Dal 2391 .595 30.9 9.0 7.1 1.5 3.6 .5 2.74
13.4 Jayson Tatum Bos 2732 .595 29.5 8.6 4.0 1.1 2.8 .7 2.36
12.8 Giannis A Mil 2024 .589 34.2 12.8 5.4 .9 4.4 .9 3.02
11.5 Domantas Sabonis Sac 2736 .653 19.4 13.5 6.1 .9 3.0 .5 2.01
11.5 Shai G-Alexander OKC 2416 .610 30.4 4.8 4.5 1.8 2.9 1.0 2.28
10.8 Julius Randle NYK 2737 .570 24.2 10.4 3.5 .7 2.9 .3 1.90
10.7 Donovan Mitchell Cle 2432 .606 29.7 4.6 3.8 1.7 2.7 .4 2.12
10.2 Anthony Davis LAL 1904 .613 26.6 13.1 2.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.56
eWin 11-20 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.0 Jimmy Butler Mia 2138 .629 25.3 6.9 5.0 2.0 1.7 .4 2.24
9.8 Nikola Vučević Chi 2746 .590 18.5 12.2 2.8 .8 1.8 .8 1.71
9.5 Damian Lillard Por 2107 .630 30.4 4.9 6.0 .9 3.3 .3 2.17
9.3 Pascal Siakam Tor 2652 .555 21.5 8.0 4.7 .8 2.3 .5 1.68
9.2 Bam Adebayo Mia 2598 .581 20.5 10.4 2.9 1.2 2.6 .8 1.70
9.1 Lauri Markkanen Uta 2273 .629 25.7 9.1 1.6 .7 2.0 .6 1.92
9.1 Stephen Curry GSW 1941 .647 30.4 6.4 5.2 1.0 3.3 .4 2.24
9.0 DeMar DeRozan Chi 2682 .580 23.6 4.7 4.1 1.1 2.1 .5 1.61
9.0 Jaylen Brown Bos 2405 .574 26.1 6.9 3.0 1.2 3.0 .4 1.79
8.9 Kr. Porziņģis Was 2120 .614 24.9 9.5 2.4 .9 2.3 1.7 2.02
eWin 21-30 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.8 LeBron James LAL 1954 .575 27.2 8.3 5.5 .9 3.3 .6 2.17
8.8 De'Aaron Fox Sac 2435 .589 24.6 4.8 5.3 1.3 2.7 .3 1.73
8.7 Kyrie Irving Br-Dal 2241 .606 25.6 5.0 4.5 1.1 2.1 .7 1.88
8.6 Zach LaVine Chi 2768 .597 24.5 4.6 3.5 .9 2.5 .2 1.49
8.5 Ja Morant Mem 1948 .546 27.2 6.5 7.5 1.1 3.8 .3 2.11
8.5 Anthony Edwards Min 2842 .555 22.3 5.9 3.6 1.6 3.3 .7 1.44
8.2 Evan Mobley Cle 2715 .581 17.1 10.2 2.6 .9 1.9 1.6 1.46
8.0 Jalen Brunson NYK 2379 .587 23.9 3.8 5.4 1.0 2.2 .2 1.61
7.9 Kevin Durant Br-Phx 1672 .664 31.1 6.7 4.2 .7 3.4 1.4 2.29
7.9 Trae Young Atl 2541 .560 24.0 3.1 8.1 1.2 4.3 .1 1.49
eWin 31-40 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.6 James Harden Phl 2135 .595 20.3 6.5 9.0 1.1 3.3 .5 1.72
7.6 Deandre Ayton Phx 2035 .609 21.2 12.1 1.7 .7 2.1 .9 1.80
7.5 Jo. Valančiūnas NOP 1968 .601 19.9 15.5 2.1 .3 2.9 1.0 1.84
7.5 Nic Claxton Brk 2271 .677 16.2 11.1 1.9 1.0 1.5 3.0 1.58
7.5 Devin Booker Phx 1835 .590 28.3 4.8 4.8 1.1 2.9 .4 1.96
7.5 Mikal Bridges Px-Brk 2963 .579 19.5 4.5 2.8 1.1 1.6 .7 1.22
7.4 Darius Garland Cle 2447 .578 22.2 2.9 6.8 1.4 2.9 .1 1.45
7.4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 1748 .613 25.2 7.2 3.5 1.4 1.8 .6 2.02
7.3 Jarrett Allen Cle 2220 .658 17.3 11.7 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.58
7.0 Jaren Jackson Mem 1787 .602 23.1 8.4 1.0 1.2 2.2 3.8 1.89
eWin 41-50 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.8 Rudy Gobert Min 2148 .656 15.9 13.8 1.2 .9 2.1 1.6 1.52
6.8 Brook Lopez Mil 2373 .623 19.0 7.6 1.3 .5 1.6 2.9 1.37
6.7 Jrue Holiday Mil 2183 .580 20.6 5.4 6.9 1.3 3.3 .4 1.48
6.7 Tyrese Haliburton Ind 1883 .616 20.6 3.9 8.9 1.8 2.7 .5 1.71
6.7 Paul George LAC 1939 .579 23.5 6.6 4.5 1.5 3.3 .4 1.65
6.7 Dejounte Murray Atl 2693 .536 17.3 5.2 4.6 1.6 2.1 .3 1.19
6.6 CJ McCollum NOP 2649 .536 19.3 4.7 4.9 .9 2.5 .5 1.19
6.5 Alperen Şengün Hou 2171 .588 16.5 11.7 3.8 1.1 3.2 1.2 1.43
6.5 Fred VanVleet Tor 2535 .533 17.0 4.2 5.9 1.6 2.0 .5 1.22
6.4 Christian Wood Dal 1738 .612 22.1 10.5 2.2 .7 2.5 1.5 1.77
eWin 51-60 tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.3 Clint Capela Atl 1730 .648 15.7 15.0 .9 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.76
6.3 Josh Giddey OKC 2367 .529 16.6 8.8 5.8 .9 3.2 .5 1.28
6.3 Desmond Bane Mem 1841 .599 23.9 5.6 4.1 1.0 2.5 .4 1.63
6.2 Aaron Gordon Den 2055 .604 19.0 8.3 2.9 .9 1.7 .9 1.46
6.2 Jakob Poeltl SA-Tor 1906 .625 15.9 12.6 2.8 1.2 2.4 1.6 1.58
6.2 Myles Turner Ind 1825 .639 20.7 9.2 1.4 .7 2.0 2.8 1.63
6.1 Bobby Portis Mil 1818 .570 18.3 12.7 1.7 .5 1.6 .3 1.61
6.1 Mason Plumlee LAC 2054 .672 15.2 12.0 3.4 .8 2.0 .8 1.43
6.0 Jamal Murray Den 2133 .565 20.5 4.6 5.4 1.0 2.5 .3 1.35
5.9 Sp. Dinwiddie Da-Brk 2725 .567 16.8 3.7 5.8 .9 1.9 .3 1.05
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Wed May 10, 2023 5:57 pm
by jc114
How is e82 defined? I couldn't find it with a quick search on this message board.
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 1:46 am
by Mike G
At any point in the season, a player's eWins are multiplied by 82/(team games) to project his eW to the full season.
EWins is short for 'equivalent wins' by a player. There's an exponential increase in team wins when there are individual talents, and a team's expected wins are total player eW*2-41.
So an average team with 41 player eW will win close to 41 games. But 51 eW expects 61 team wins.
There are philosophical and practical reasons for this approach. Let me know if you want more details.
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 2:45 am
by jc114
Would definitely want more details about that!
Also from the first page: "Categories are weighted to make team eWins sum to their expected wins (Pythagorean, from point differential)." Does eWins depend on some kind of APM metric passed through the pythagorean of an average team?
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 4:25 am
by Mike G
Well, eWins is entirely a boxscore metric but incorporates team and opponent rates, home/away factor, starter/sub factor; estimates of % of points unassisted, "team rebounds", shooting%/opp%, team Stl/oppTO, and a variable "zero level" that is zero wins added. Zero is about 3 pts/100 worse than BPM's replacement level.
It's unfortunately a "black box" that is unshareable unless you want the whole spreadsheet. I don't even know what all is in it. And only from many years of handling, I can manage to keep cranking out the results.
There are about 20 parameters I toggle up and down to make eWins scale to Pythagorean wins.
Playoff series are a beautiful sampling.
Re: eWins 2023
Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 5:25 am
by jc114
I see. Very cool! Thanks for sharing!
