APBRmetrics

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-dr ... henderson/

Scoot Henderson unanimous #2 pick to these sources. Not for me, at least at this time. Very low 3pta rate out of total shots. FT rate 30% below NBA average. Looks like he has been a big part of a bad defense and a losing team.

Amen Thompson 3rd on average? 8th as his lowest ranking? He is currently 23rd for me. That is an early, rough placement but don't be surprised if I end up with him below or way below 8th.

Nick Smith 4th? Shows how deep the prep thinking / hype runs. He is way way down my list until he produces way better at college level for a long stretch. Something that hasn't happened yet and may not. Currently +0.9 BPM.

K George 7th? Imo that is currently ridiculous and bad look for these analysts. Currently just +5.6 on BPM estimate and 77th for me. "But, but he was good against high schoolers!" Don't give a rip.

Carson Wallace, 8th to the prominent media, 5th to me at this time.

Tons of other differences. A Black, a prep darling. Shifted back a little to 11th to this group. 31st for me at this time.

K Ware 12th? Consistent with pre-season. I had high interest. But haven't been impressed so far. 75th at moment.

Whitehead 13th and GG Jackson 14th? Garbage, prep legacy rankings imo. Early college play does not deserve inclusion in my top 75 yet. -1.5 and +0.8 BPMs respectively.

T Smith 15th? Another massive over-rate by the groupthink. Not in my top 75 right now. BPM of +5.6 is not deserving.

Murray 19th for the average, 32 to ESPN. Accidentally was deleted on my list but will put him back in around 8th for now, though it may go somewhat lower.

Lively, 20th for them. Up to 65th right now for me after being lower.

Huge leap for Jett Howard. I moved up modestly and waiting on more info.

Cissoko, Kaluma are first rounders to them. Fell off my top 120. Same with 11% from 3 Djurisic. No way he is a first rounder for me. 19th to Athletic? More like in the range of 159th to me.

T Shannon's best rank for them is 20th?? And the average is 37th???? 12th for me. I might be too high on him. Will consider adjustment next time.

Sasser 25th? Currently 3rd for me, largely based on a nearly a 2 way based+13 BPM.

Colby Jones? 38th to them, 8th currently for me.

Tshiebwe and Trayce-Davis in the 50s? Absurd imo. Bilal
Coulibaly ahead of Tshiebwe for ESPN? Seems crazy to me. That guy is scoreless in last 2 games with an extremely weak efficiency rating while playing France division 1. 1 pt / 1 reb per game across 8 such games. Mojave King and many many others ahead of
Tshiebwe for ESPN that are completely unworthy of being ahead of him imo.

Edey unranked?? Absurd squared. 65th to ESPN. 23 pts, 14 rebs per game and over +14 BPM gets 4th place for me for now.

Jalen Clark unranked???? Total insanity. Just the best BPM in all of college basketball last I looked at almost +17. 2nd place for me for now. Closer reviews later. Givony does not have him in top 100. If an eye test does not pick up on a +17 BPM at all, do not test that eye test on him or anyone imo.

Sanogo, House, Perry, Kalkbrenner, Ballo, Shedrick, Dante and many others unranked by consensus? I disagree. Sanogo and Dante in the 80s for ESPN? 60-70 spots higher for me for now.



ESPN / Draftexpress has Nnaji 25th. 5pts, 3 rebound per game. Has never averaged a full block per game as a pro. Average of less than 1 pt / 1 reb in last 3 games. Ridiculous but expected hype from Givony.

Rupert, also hyped by ESPN with a total crock ranking of 18th. 40% on 2s offsets 39% from short 3. 0.7 A/TO. Not in my top 120.

E Bates no longer hyped as next great one but still 46th to ESPN. -0.1 BPM. Not in my top 75.

A Bailey down to 45th for ESPN. Outside my top 100. Not impressed with below average efg% and ts% and just +3.8 BPM estimate.

Points of near agreement are far less common than significant disagreements. Compare the consensus list or individual ones to mine and find even more differences.


My draft board is way different in methodology and findings from the standards. It is very early but my board is improving. We'll see how things look in 3-7 months.

@Crow, specific thoughts on Gradey Dick?

I don’t have a definitive opinion on his potential, but him and Lively are my 2 most intriguing college prospects.

I have Gradey 13th right now. Have been higher and lower and it is still early. I like what I see, especially for right team role. It is just who might do more.

Rebounding and ft rate were both kinda light. Rebounding wouldn't be that big a deal on some teams above average on it. Has also been picking up. FT rate hasn't overall but he did have 2 big games to show some potential there.


I don't know Lively that well. Rebounding was pretty weak til his best of season 9 in last game. We'll see what he does from here. 5 blocks in last game was notable as well. Only once above 2 before that.

12% usage is a characteristic of the now. Usage in high school and what he did with it might have some relevance.

Almost dropped tracking him but didn't and shouldn't have this early. March will be important for many, especially the youngest.

Sam Vecenie still has Can Whitmore 4th. I liked Whitmore based on huge summer international stats but that was a mistake. I don't get impressed by high school or high school showcases and should not generally for youth international either. That international competition was garbage.

12 games in, Whitmore has a BPM of just 5. No game over GS 20. Only two 20 pt plus games.

He'll probably rise later. But based on what he has actually shown in college, I currently have him 36th. He might not come out this draft, wanting a high ranking. A "pre-draft guy"? Maybe. But a major disappointment to me so far.

From Vecenie, "His touch looks good, but the shots just have been inconsistent..." Uh, huh...

Vecenie has Nick Smith 9th. 42nd currently for me. Post a bullcrap +0.6 BPM in college and you have very little prep hype shine left for me.

Vecenie has Whitehead 10th. 90th now for me. Just 3 games over GS 10. BPM of +0.5. Perform that bad in college, don't care what you looked like to prep hypsters.

A Black, 11th for Vecenie, 38th for me at last estimate. BPM faded down to +5.4. college 3 pt shot down to 32% after an abnormal early high.

K George improving over whack start. Vecenie has him 12th. I'll raise to at least 35th next review.

Rupert 17th for Vecenie. Not in my top 100.

T Smith, 25th for Vecenie, lower than some others. BPM of barely +6. TS% of 51%. Not in my top 100.

Plenty more disagreements.

Kalkbrenner with a +12 BPM and a ts% of almost 75% and a good 3pt shot, standing at 7'1. 4th currently for me. Not in Vecenie's top 58.

Djurisic, 32nd to Vecenie. Not in my top at least 125. 3pt fg% has moved up to 16%. He is a way way way over-rated international that deserves no hype with his bad stats in a low league.

Vecenie says he likes J Clark but only has him 44th on his board. 4th at moment for me. Yeah, the +13.4 BPM impresses me more than most other things and more than apparently anyone else.

Hood-Scifino, 37th for Vecenie. BPM up to 1.9. I might have to rank him later but haven't yet.

Vecenie has Jett Howard 16, Kris Murray 18. Me, Howard 37th, Murray 7th. Murray with about a 40% better BPM against a slightly tougher SOS, with a better ts% and a vastly greater rebound rate.

Z Edey, 42nd to Vecenie, 3rd to me. 14.5 BPM, player of year top contender, leader of 17-1 team... The bias against even the best bigs is way overdone imo.

Other major differences on Henderson, Perry, Flagler, Trayce-Davis, Tshiebwe, Shedrick, Jordan-James, Tubelis, etc.

I named 22 main differences. There are more... Ballo, Sanogo, Dante, Vanover...

Vecenie has Nnaji ranked. I don't. 3.6 pts / 2.1 rebs, 0.6 blocks per game does not impress me.

Just checked and saw how awful Arkansas is doing with their stacked roster.

Scoot Henderson's 3pt fg% is now below average. The A/TO is just 1.8. Efg% well below average in a league where many NBA talents excel. TS% only modestly above league average. Way less Moreyball than average.

Excited or super-excited about a 16 PER in the G league? Not me. That doesn't even account for the probable lousy defense.

Amen Thompson, 21% from 3 in essentially exhibition games against high schoolers. Ausar's down to 32%.

Excited about Rayan Rupert? He does 2 things ok to well and lots of things meh to bad in a pretty weak league. (Yes the NBL is pretty weak.)

Nick Smith and Cam Whitmore mostly bad.

Jett Howard barely +6 on BPM and worst game of the season a couple days ago.

Whitmore, K George and Dillon Mitchell also had worst games of season in last 4 days.

Kris Murray double the BPM and double the number of GS20+ games of T Smith and just one spot ahead of him at Tankathon and just 17th?

GG Jackson had his best game of season a couple days ago but even with that his season BPM is slightly negative, with no other game over GS16.


Trayce Jackson-Davis with 2 best games of season back to back. I've long been way higher on him than the high visibility sites.

Tankathon has Tshiebwe 45th. Had a GS40 game a week ago. I am somewhat down on him from previous high marks but remain much higher than anyone else I recall seeing.

Spend a draft pick on S Cissoko? Probably not for me.

I consider 17 of ESPN's top 23 "best available" way over-rated. Zach Edey 66th? I might be too high on him but 66th is way too low imo. #1 among qualified college players on RAPM.

SI's Jeremy Woo with Anthony Black 3rd, ahead of Brandon Miller? Strongly disagree on both counts. He has Rupert 13th.

Who would win 1 on 1 between Wembanyama and Brandon Miller? The first time or 10th?

Or versus Kalkbrenner?

We'll probably eventually find out on at least one matchup.

Wembanyama with his least impressive game of the season a week ago. Did you hear any other mention of it?

(Followed after this post by a strong game.)

After Emoni Bates' career best game, his BPM for season is up to +1.1.

More reaction to SI's Jeremy Woo putting Anthony Black 3rd:

"Black has been a much more effective and efficient scorer than many expected at Arkansas..."

His shooting is below average from 3, 2 and the FT line and for overall efg% for full season. TS% is average or slightly above average due to a massive FT rate.

But in 8 conference games, his efg% falls to 41.5% and ts% to just under 48%. Those are terrible shooting and scoring efficiencies.

Expectations for his shooting and scoring may have been pretty low. And appropriately so. But the performance has not been that praiseworthy so far.

His 3pt fg% from short college line is under 34% for season and under 27% in conference.

His A/TO is less than 1.3 overall and a tick lower in conference play. That is bad for a significant ballhandler.

He has only 2 GS20 plus games and none in over 2 months. He has 3 20+ pt games and just 1 in 2 months.

His BPM has fallen to just +6.4, sub-par for draftees. By WS/40 he is only half as good in conference play as overall, so the difference between non-conference and conference play is far more massive.

His BPM is 58th best for college qualifiers by one criteria. That is pretty good but not good enough for a 3rd pick imo. 158th for all those with 400 plus minutes.

His team is in 10th place in SEC at 3W-5L. Team defense is elite but team offense is barely in upper half for 363 Division 1 schools.


For actual play to date, I have him in late 2nd round on my big board. He will likely go higher, perhaps based on value of size and expected NBA roles. I'll probably raise him at least some by the end, based on "potential". But not yet.

On hoopshype: "It wouldn’t shock me if there are some teams that would consider Brandon at No. 2.” –

What would be shocking to me would be some team NOT considering or picking him at #2.

Scoot? Pfft.

How good is the talent in French ProA?

The player with the 2nd best efficiency rating behind Wembanyama is Dee Bost, a 33 year old American who spent time in one Jazz training camp but never played an NBA minute. Also in top 5, Markus McDuffie. Undrafted, no NBA minutes. Who?

Wembanyama with a 15% edge on Bost.

In an 18 team league, he'll spend a lot of time matched up against the 50th to 100th best guys and sometimes worse. Guys way less impressive than McDuffie. Likely a big part of the reason he transferred and left EuroLeague play. His selection also avoided even EuroCup.



Wembanyama 29.5% from shorter international 3pt line for season and 26% in last 8 games. Are NBA teams going to guard him close on perimeter? I wouldn't unless he shoots way better.

Buzz about Grant Nelson?

I'll look into him.

Here are a few points worth mentioning:

Team SOS is average... as in 180th toughest. They are 3-9 outside conference. In his 2 games against high ranked teams at very beginning of season he was high turnovers and they lost both big.

Nelson's biggest games are generally against low ranked opponents. His big last games was against the 306th best team of 363 nationally with the 340th ranked shot defense.

His 3pta rate is modest and his 3pt fg% is career worst at under 25%.

His A/TO is less than 0.6.

His BPM estimate is just +3.1.

I'll probably look into him more later but this information calls for a lot of scrutiny & skepticism about that eye-test buzz. I'll take all the time objectively rated over select offensive highlights.

The video highlights are interesting... but best plays against generally low ranked opponents can look that way without meaning much.



If you eye-test, strong competition is important. How would a game of 21 go against Wembanyama? Some high lottery team should try to get Wembanyama to take that bait and find out. Or try to get Nelson against B Miller, Whitmore, Walker, etc.

Scoot Henderson: 3pt fg% at 25% over last 10 games. Defensive "stocks" way up in January... from very low December levels.

Jett Howard with 2nd straight new worst game. This time 0 points on 0 for 5 shooting. (5 games ago was almost a worst game to then date but last 2 were another step worse.)

Anthony Black with a low end performance in last game. 5th worst of his season by GS.


Sensabaugh with best game of season a week ago, 3rd best yesterday. Up to +12 BPM. One of the few.


Duke, with a bevy of project names, currently sit 7th in ACC.

Could Tshiebwe play some PF in NBA? I dunno but it should be considered by some teams.

Ousmane N'Diaye:

In a low league. Garbage shooter. Average rebounder. Very rare passer.

Not on my big board. 51st to Tankathon, 46th to ESPN.



Nnaji, 21st for ESPN. Very low minutes and weak rebounder. Can score on fairly low usage (and garbage time?). Unranked so far for me. Taking internationalscouting trips are not a factor for me. ESPN has 30-50 spots ahead of Kalkbrenner, Edey and Tshiebwe. Not credible imo.


Dante. 95th to ESPN. 24th to me. 69% TS% in conference on pretty good usage. Very strong rebounder.

Amari Bailey. 43rd to Tankathon. Not on my big board. BPM of just +3.5. Doing almost nothing well so far. Just 1 game above GS 15. 6 straight below to way way below GS 9.


Was told by the hypesters that Baba Miller is a major talent. 5 games in, his best game is a GS 6. Awful at almost everything but 2pt shooting. 20% from 3. A / TO of 0.17. BPM of -1.3.


Emoni Bates followed his career best game with a 5 for 18 outing.

Trayce Jefferson-Davis with 11 games over GS 20 probably leads the nation on that criteria. (Edey 10, Brandon Miller 6, Kris Murray, Tshiebwe 7, Holmes 8, Tubelis 8. Notice how under-supported most of these guys are by draft consensus. All in my big board lottery level but Holmes.) BPM just a tick below +15. Dang, just noticed he accidentally fell off my big board. Fixed.

Edey with a GS 38 last game. 38pts, 13 rebs.

T Proctor, no game above GS 13. Doing almost nothing well. BPM of just +1.9. Not on my big board.

Caicedo, 78th to ESPN. Just 229 minutes of play in 3 years and mostly meh. Worth that rank? I don't know... but I doubt it.