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Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:07 pm
by Mike G
Season .67 completed and rookies on pace to total 53 eWins. Including all with 250+ minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.1 Paolo Banchero Orl 1653 .517 18.1 7.5 3.3 1.1 2.9 .5 1.21
5.0 Walker Kessler Uta 1092 .683 13.4 12.8 1.1 .7 1.3 3.5 1.49
4.0 Be. Mathurin Ind 1574 .547 18.3 5.2 1.5 .7 2.3 .1 .84
3.8 Jalen Duren Det 1195 .656 11.1 12.6 1.2 .9 1.7 1.2 1.04
3.5 Tari Eason Hou 1065 .515 12.5 10.3 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.0 1.06
3.2 Jalen Williams OKC 1445 .567 13.1 4.9 2.9 1.5 2.0 .7 .71
3.1 Jaden Ivey Det 1556 .516 14.5 4.7 4.5 1.1 3.4 .3 .65
3.0 Keegan Murray Sac 1540 .585 12.9 5.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 .6 .63
3.0 Jabari Smith Hou 1547 .494 11.2 8.5 1.1 .6 1.7 1.2 .62
2.1 AJ Griffin Atl 1072 .597 14.7 3.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 .2 .64
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Jeremy Sochan SAS 1161 .508 10.5 6.9 2.6 1.1 2.4 .6 .48
1.7 Mark Williams Cha 349 .664 16.4 12.4 .5 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.60
1.1 Andrew Nembhard Ind 1345 .520 9.1 3.7 4.5 1.3 2.3 .3 .28
1.0 Shaedon Sharpe Por 1074 .547 11.5 4.7 .8 .6 1.2 .4 .29
0.9 Orlando Robinson Mia 356 .556 9.3 10.5 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 .83
.9 Christian Koloko Tor 658 .521 7.1 8.1 1.0 .6 1.0 2.5 .43
.9 Jaylin Williams OKC 334 .568 10.5 9.7 2.7 .9 1.6 .3 .81
.8 Dyson Daniels NOP 778 .519 6.8 6.4 3.7 1.4 1.9 .5 .32
.7 Jaden Hardy Dal 290 .540 18.4 4.5 1.9 1.0 2.6 .3 .83
.6 David Roddy Mem 802 .498 10.5 5.1 1.1 .9 1.8 .5 .23
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.5 Christian Braun Den 755 .545 8.4 5.5 1.3 .9 1.0 .5 .22
.5 MarJon Beauchamp Mil 525 .509 12.0 5.4 1.3 .9 2.4 .1 .30
.4 Malaki Branham SAS 857 .513 10.3 3.3 2.4 .8 1.6 .2 .16
.3 Jabari Walker Por 293 .491 7.9 8.7 1.6 .4 1.3 .6 .37
.2 Ousmane Dieng OKC 284 .497 7.7 5.7 2.6 .6 1.4 .7 .22
.2 Kevon Harris Orl 336 .536 8.4 5.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 .3 .16
.1 Ochai Agbaji Uta 451 .588 9.0 4.2 1.0 .3 .7 .3 .06
.1 Jake LaRavia Mem 380 .530 7.6 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 .4 .05
.1 Max Christie LAL 492 .569 7.6 4.9 1.0 .5 .8 .4 .03
.0 Caleb Houstan Orl 524 .561 7.8 5.0 1.0 .4 .8 .2 .02
-.1 Bryce McGowens Cha 304 .476 6.9 3.9 1.9 .4 1.0 .5 -.07
Banchero in his last 8 games has shot .347 eFG%
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2023/
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2023 12:45 am
by Crow
That recent stretch pulls Banchero to .073 below league average on efg% for season and .050 below avg. on ts%. Those are nowhere close to average and they were supposed to be strengths.
428nd among all players on fg%, 362nd on ts%.
3pt fg% is 25th in draft class and 346th overall.
Very weak shooting / scoring numbers, especially for someone getting lots of called plays, first or early looks.
BPM estimate slips from 5th to 6th among qualifiers with 300 plus minutes. 258th overall.
DARKO DPM projection line has never been lower though 1 or 2 individual spot ratings may have been slightly lower. Rate of change has been negative since early in season though mostly slight lately after one earlier steep drop.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2023 12:40 am
by Crow
Worst impact estimate in league by Ryan Davis RAPM? Jaden Ivey at -3.3. Second worst on luck adjusted.
James Wiseman 473 on luck adjusted.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:58 pm
by Mike G
Season .764 complete, and rookies total 56 projected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
5.9 Paolo Banchero Orl 1885 .513 17.8 7.4 3.2 1.0 2.9 .5 1.16
5.3 Walker Kessler Uta 1308 .680 13.3 13.1 1.1 .7 1.3 3.6 1.50
4.1 Be. Mathurin Ind 1778 .548 18.2 5.2 1.5 .8 2.3 .1 .85
3.9 Jalen Williams OKC 1703 .578 14.0 5.0 3.0 1.7 1.9 .6 .82
3.7 Tari Eason Hou 1232 .517 12.6 10.3 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.08
3.7 Jalen Duren Det 1305 .639 11.1 12.6 1.2 .9 1.7 1.3 1.03
3.3 Keegan Murray Sac 1761 .589 12.8 5.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 .7 .66
3.1 Jaden Ivey Det 1747 .520 14.9 4.7 4.5 1.1 3.4 .3 .66
2.9 Jabari Smith Hou 1772 .487 10.9 8.6 1.2 .6 1.7 1.2 .60
2.4 Mark Williams Cha 564 .649 16.0 12.7 .7 1.4 1.6 2.4 1.62
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 AJ Griffin Atl 1169 .578 14.1 3.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 .2 .59
1.8 Jeremy Sochan SAS 1302 .500 10.8 7.0 2.6 1.0 2.4 .6 .50
1.1 Shaedon Sharpe Por 1237 .547 11.7 4.7 .9 .7 1.3 .5 .33
1.1 Jaylin Williams OKC 503 .551 10.3 9.8 2.5 .9 1.5 .4 .80
.9 Andrew Nembhard Ind 1514 .509 8.6 3.6 4.4 1.3 2.2 .3 .22
.9 Or. Robinson Mia 397 .562 9.2 11.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 .83
.8 Malaki Branham SAS 1077 .529 11.6 3.6 2.3 .8 1.7 .2 .28
.8 Chr. Koloko Tor 663 .518 7.2 8.2 1.0 .6 1.0 2.6 .43
.8 Christian Braun Den 869 .569 9.2 5.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 .4 .32
.7 Jaden Hardy Dal 371 .548 17.0 4.3 2.1 .9 2.4 .3 .72
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.6 Dyson Daniels NOP 792 .522 6.8 6.4 3.6 1.4 1.9 .5 .30
.6 David Roddy Mem 836 .505 10.9 5.1 1.0 .9 1.8 .5 .24
.5 Ma. Beauchamp Mil 576 .499 11.7 5.4 1.3 1.0 2.2 .2 .30
.4 Jabari Walker Por 368 .502 8.5 8.1 1.6 .4 1.3 .8 .39
.3 Ochai Agbaji Uta 629 .607 10.4 3.9 1.0 .4 .8 .3 .16
.2 TyTy Washington Hou 391 .423 8.4 3.5 3.2 1.0 1.2 .2 .18
.1 Caleb Houstan Orl 553 .556 8.0 5.1 1.0 .5 .8 .2 .05
.1 Max Christie LAL 506 .566 7.8 4.9 1.0 .6 .9 .5 .05
.0 Jake LaRavia Mem 386 .525 7.7 5.1 1.5 1.0 1.6 .4 .04
-.1 Br. McGowens Cha 402 .487 7.4 3.9 1.8 .6 1.4 .3 -.09
.7 A.J. Green Mil 284 .644 17.2 3.8 2.0 .7 1.0 .0 .86
.5 Pa. Baldwin GSW 175 .618 18.9 5.9 .6 1.2 1.8 .2 1.05
Including all with >350 minutes; and a couple more.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:09 pm
by Mike G
Season at 85%, and rookies total 57 eWins projected.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.0 Paolo Banchero Orl .516 18.0 7.5 3.1 1.0 2.9 .5 1.16
5.5 Walker Kessler Uta .693 13.5 13.2 1.1 .6 1.3 3.6 1.51
4.4 Jalen Williams OKC .592 14.9 5.2 3.1 1.7 1.9 .6 .94
3.8 Jalen Duren Det .630 11.6 12.9 1.3 .9 1.8 1.3 1.11
3.7 Be. Mathurin Ind .546 17.9 5.1 1.4 .8 2.3 .2 .81
3.6 Tari Eason Hou .525 12.5 10.1 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.04
3.4 Jabari Smith Hou .506 11.8 8.6 1.2 .6 1.7 1.1 .69
3.0 Keegan Murray Sac .583 12.4 5.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 .6 .62
2.9 Jaden Ivey Det .511 14.7 4.7 4.6 1.0 3.6 .3 .63
2.4 Mark Williams Cha .650 15.5 12.4 .6 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.51
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.1 Jeremy Sochan SAS .503 11.6 7.3 2.6 1.1 2.4 .6 .60
1.7 AJ Griffin Atl .575 13.9 3.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 .2 .58
1.3 Jaylin Williams OKC .546 10.0 9.3 2.3 1.1 1.4 .5 .76
1.1 Shaedon Sharpe Por .557 11.7 4.6 1.1 .7 1.3 .5 .32
1.1 Andrew Nembhard Ind .513 9.2 3.6 4.3 1.3 2.1 .3 .26
1.0 Jaden Hardy Dal .542 17.4 4.3 2.3 .8 2.3 .3 .78
.9 David Roddy Mem .529 12.1 5.2 1.1 1.0 1.8 .6 .39
.9 Malaki Branham SAS .530 11.6 4.0 2.3 .9 1.8 .2 .30
.8 Christian Braun Den .580 9.4 5.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 .5 .35
.8 Orlando Robinson Mia .562 9.1 11.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 .82
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.7 Christian Koloko Tor .518 7.0 8.2 1.0 .6 .9 2.6 .42
.6 Dyson Daniels NOP .499 6.3 6.4 3.7 1.3 1.9 .4 .25
.5 Ousmane Dieng OKC .508 9.9 6.3 2.0 .9 1.3 .5 .44
.4 MarJon Beauchamp Mil .497 11.4 5.3 1.3 1.0 2.2 .2 .28
.3 Simone Fontecchio Uta .498 11.7 3.9 1.6 .8 1.9 .5 .23
.3 Ochai Agbaji Uta .571 10.3 3.7 1.1 .5 1.0 .3 .13
.2 TyTy Washington Hou .420 8.2 3.6 3.1 1.0 1.2 .2 .16
.1 Max Christie LAL .566 7.8 4.9 1.0 .6 .9 .5 .05
.0 Caleb Houstan Orl .548 7.6 5.0 .9 .4 .7 .2 .00
-.3 Bryce McGowens Cha .467 6.6 3.9 1.4 .5 1.5 .3 -.24
All with >400 minutes.
An avg scorer is 15.0, and there are only a handful among these 30.
10 are above-avg rebounders (6.6) this year.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:19 pm
by Mike G
Just 1/15 of the season remains, as rookies total 59 projected eWins.
All with 450+ minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.0 Paolo Banchero Orl 2329 .516 18.1 7.6 3.2 1.0 2.9 .6 1.14
5.8 Walker Kessler Uta 1648 .688 14.3 13.1 1.2 .6 1.2 3.7 1.56
4.7 Jalen Williams OKC 2151 .596 15.5 5.3 3.1 1.7 1.9 .6 .98
3.8 Jalen Duren Det 1495 .638 12.2 12.7 1.3 .9 1.8 1.3 1.12
3.7 Tari Eason Hou 1634 .527 12.6 10.2 1.3 1.8 2.0 .9 1.01
3.5 Be. Mathurin Ind 2047 .551 17.9 5.1 1.4 .8 2.3 .2 .78
3.5 Jabari Smith Hou 2281 .505 11.8 8.7 1.2 .6 1.6 1.0 .68
3.2 Keegan Murray Sac 2195 .587 12.9 5.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 .6 .66
2.9 Jaden Ivey Det 2080 .517 15.3 4.6 4.6 .9 3.6 .3 .62
2.4 Mark Williams Cha 709 .646 16.1 12.7 .7 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.54
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Jeremy Sochan SAS 1458 .503 11.7 7.3 2.6 1.1 2.4 .6 .59
1.8 AJ Griffin Atl 1295 .573 14.2 3.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 .3 .61
1.6 Shaedon Sharpe Por 1612 .565 13.0 4.8 1.3 .8 1.5 .5 .45
1.5 Jaden Hardy Dal 630 .569 19.4 4.5 2.8 1.0 2.3 .3 1.04
1.3 Jaylin Williams OKC 837 .545 9.9 9.1 2.4 1.1 1.4 .5 .72
1.2 Andrew Nembhard Ind 1912 .524 9.8 3.5 4.5 1.2 2.1 .2 .29
.9 David Roddy Mem 1103 .515 11.7 5.3 1.2 .9 1.6 .5 .37
.9 Malaki Branham SAS 1388 .522 11.7 4.1 2.2 .8 1.8 .2 .29
.8 Christian Braun Den 1031 .566 9.4 5.7 1.4 1.0 1.0 .5 .33
.7 Orlando Robinson Mia 397 .562 9.3 11.2 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 .83
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.7 Christian Koloko Tor 731 .498 6.6 8.1 1.1 .8 .9 2.7 .41
.6 Dyson Daniels NOP 997 .487 6.3 6.5 3.8 1.4 1.9 .4 .25
.5 Ochai Agbaji Uta 1020 .578 11.4 3.6 1.4 .5 1.1 .5 .23
.4 MarJon Beauchamp Mil 613 .510 12.0 5.6 1.3 1.0 2.3 .3 .33
.4 Ousmane Dieng OKC 502 .496 9.5 6.4 1.9 1.0 1.4 .4 .37
.4 Jabari Walker Por 491 .495 9.0 7.8 1.4 .6 1.4 .8 .37
.3 Simone Fontecchio Uta 621 .494 12.0 3.6 1.6 .7 1.8 .5 .20
.1 Max Christie LAL 507 .566 8.0 5.0 1.1 .6 .9 .5 .07
-.2 Caleb Houstan Orl 702 .508 6.8 4.9 .9 .4 .8 .3 -.10
-.2 Bryce McGowens Cha 630 .477 7.5 3.9 1.8 .6 1.7 .3 -.15
-.3 Blake Wesley SAS 523 .385 6.4 4.2 3.8 1.3 3.4 .3 -.21
The West wins this year, 34-25
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:30 pm
by Crow
Banchero 10th in DRAFT class by BPM, 7th by VORP.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 9:50 pm
by Mike G
Rookies totaled 62.3 eWins, including the negatives.
Listing all with 500 minutes or .3 eWin.
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
5.9 Paolo Banchero Orl 2430 .517 18.4 7.8 3.2 .9 3.0 .6 1.16
5.5 Walker Kessler Uta 1703 .688 14.4 13.0 1.2 .6 1.2 3.6 1.56
4.6 Jalen Williams OKC 2276 .594 15.6 5.2 3.2 1.7 1.9 .6 .97
3.9 Jalen Duren Det 1670 .642 12.5 12.8 1.3 .9 2.0 1.3 1.13
3.7 Tari Eason Hou 1767 .519 12.4 10.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 .9 1.00
3.6 Jabari Smith Hou 2451 .508 11.9 8.7 1.2 .6 1.5 1.1 .70
3.5 Keegan Murray Sac 2382 .593 13.3 5.9 1.2 1.0 .9 .6 .70
3.5 Be. Mathurin Ind 2222 .553 17.8 5.1 1.5 .8 2.4 .2 .75
3.0 Jaden Ivey Det 2304 .519 15.6 4.6 4.7 1.0 3.7 .3 .62
2.6 Mark Williams Cha 828 .646 16.2 12.6 .6 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.51
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Shaedon Sharpe Por 1779 .563 13.7 4.9 1.5 .8 1.7 .5 .51
1.8 Jeremy Sochan SAS 1458 .503 11.7 7.3 2.6 1.1 2.4 .6 .58
1.7 AJ Griffin Atl 1401 .574 14.2 3.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 .3 .60
1.5 Jaden Hardy Dal 708 .564 19.0 4.6 2.8 .9 2.3 .3 .99
1.4 Jaylin Williams OKC 914 .552 9.9 9.1 2.4 1.2 1.4 .5 .72
1.4 Andrew Nembhard Ind 2073 .525 10.2 3.5 4.7 1.2 2.2 .2 .32
1.1 Malaki Branham SAS 1550 .521 12.2 4.2 2.1 .8 1.7 .2 .33
.9 Christian Braun Den 1181 .561 9.8 5.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 .5 .38
.9 David Roddy Mem 1258 .515 11.3 5.3 1.3 .8 1.6 .5 .33
.7 Or. Robinson Mia 425 .555 8.8 11.2 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 .79
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.7 Ch. Koloko Tor 802 .507 6.8 7.9 1.1 .8 .9 2.5 .42
.7 Ochai Agbaji Uta 1209 .555 12.0 3.5 1.6 .5 1.2 .4 .26
.6 Kenneth Lofton Mem 176 .563 21.8 9.7 3.2 .9 2.3 .4 1.73
.6 Dyson Daniels NOP 1042 .498 6.6 6.7 3.8 1.3 1.9 .4 .27
.6 Jamal Cain Mia 240 .636 14.4 8.1 1.5 1.6 .9 .1 1.11
.5 A.J. Green Mil 345 .606 15.1 4.3 1.8 .6 .9 .0 .67
.5 Jabari Walker Por 619 .490 9.5 7.6 1.6 .6 1.6 .7 .37
.4 Ma. Beauchamp Mil 701 .509 11.6 5.5 1.5 1.0 2.2 .3 .30
.4 Ousmane Dieng OKC 569 .501 9.7 6.2 2.3 .9 1.6 .4 .37
.4 Dominick Barlow SAS 408 .558 7.7 8.7 1.5 .9 1.3 1.6 .48
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.4 Patrick Baldwin GSW 226 .545 16.0 6.0 1.3 .9 1.7 .6 .84
.4 Si. Fontecchio Uta 766 .491 12.0 3.9 1.5 .7 1.8 .4 .24
.4 Dalen Terry Chi 214 .515 11.9 6.0 2.8 1.7 1.3 .8 .81
.3 Johnny Davis Was 423 .442 10.4 5.3 1.8 .8 1.3 .7 .35
.3 Peyton Watson Den 186 .543 12.5 7.2 1.6 .3 1.5 2.0 .70
.3 Josh Minott Min 96 .575 14.9 8.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.30
.1 Max Christie LAL 512 .561 7.8 5.0 1.1 .6 .9 .5 .05
-.1 Bryce McGowens Cha 787 .508 9.1 4.0 1.9 .6 1.9 .3 -.03
-.2 Caleb Houstan Orl 812 .505 6.9 4.5 1.0 .5 .8 .3 -.09
-.3 Blake Wesley SAS 669 .388 6.2 4.2 3.8 1.3 3.4 .3 -.23
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2023 1:57 am
by Crow
Duren better than I expected.
I expected 5 of the bottom 6 would be low.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Mon May 08, 2023 9:11 pm
by Mike G
Listed in order of votes/points received for all-Rookie teams; and others who were top 10 in eW, WS, or VORP.
Code: Select all
1st team tm Min eWin WS VORP
Paolo Banchero Orl 2430 5.9 2.4 .3
Jalen Williams OKC 2276 4.6 5.6 1.3
Walker Kessler Uta 1703 5.5 7.1 2.1
Be. Mathurin Ind 2222 3.5 1.8 -1.0
Keegan Murray Sac 2382 3.5 4.3 .8
2nd team tm Min eWin WS VORP
Jaden Ivey Det 2304 3.0 .0 -.7
Jalen Duren Det 1670 3.9 4.5 .5
Jabari Smith Hou 2451 3.6 1.9 -1.1
Jeremy Sochan SAS 1458 1.8 .2 -.7
Tari Eason Hou 1767 3.7 2.6 .1
other tm Min eWin WS VORP
Mark Williams Cha 828 2.6 2.8 .4
AJ Griffin Atl 1401 1.7 2.2 .4
Christian Braun Den 1181 .9 1.9 -.1
Dalen Terry Chi 214 .4 .5 .1