APBRmetrics

Buzz about big game by Podziemski? Worth some buzz but also worth noting that the opponent was 301st of 363 on defensive efficiency and 356th on points allowed.

My current big board compared to lastest posted ESPN and Vecenie: in each case 8 differences in the top 10.

K George went from posting 3 of 4 best GS games in 5 games in early January to posting 3 bad ones in 4 games since. Altogether 7 games in season at GS5 to -4.

Cam Whitmore adds another stinker game, making it 2 of last 3.

Gradey Dick with 3 of his 7 worst games in last 4, including the worst.

Tubelis with a 40 pts / 8 rebs, GS 39 game. BPM approaches +11. Was 13th to me. Might go higher. 65th to Givony. Ware, 13 games at or below about +5, including last 6 straight. 30th to ESPN, 78th to me. Big disagreement, big disagreement.

Jalen Wilson with 13 20 plus point games, including the last 5 straight. But just 3 over GS 20. The former is easier.

Wembanyama with a -1.25 pts / 40 min team +/- over last 5 games after being positive earlier.

Wembanyama, 0 for 4 from 3 today. Now below 29% from season. If you put his 2020-21 season across 3 leagues together, he has never shot 30 plus % from 3 for a full season.

Against the 4 best teams in his modest talent league, Wembanyama shoots a bit less well from 2 than his season average. He shoots more 3s and slightly better. But they are fairly small samples, especially from 3 so random variance might colour one or both. Will these shooting tendencies carry over in NBA? I'd lean yes. Efficiency on both likely to go down imo but we'll see. Team won his time on court modestly but lost pretty big otherwise to go 3W-3L. Wembanyama NBA "impact" (by RAPM or other)? Might be modest early.

Shot selection can be a combination of offense choice and defensive strategy. Did opponents prefer Wembanyama to shoot 3s? I would have. On season average a 3pta from him is a bad shot / possession. Against the 4 best it is just an average shot. Perhaps settling for that is enough. Did Wembanyama prefer to shoot 3s? Probably. Will his NBA team prefer that? We'll see.

Heard someone considering Jett Howard for top 5.

Also saw he had another terrible game. 3 worst of season in last 4 games.

You should know which matters more to me.

Scoot Henderson is just shooting 28% from 3 in G league "regular season" after short strong run in 6 "showcase" games. Below 40% efg% in 4 of last 6. Team was lost 4 of last 5. Raw team +/- with him on court has fallen from mild positive to moderate negative. Simple efficiency measure (PIE) has fallen about 35%.


From first year in G league to second, his WS40 fell 12%. Modest rise on simple efficiency (EFF) but both are bleh / mediocre. FT rate barely half what it was last season.

Do I drop him further?

Kobe Bufkin a sleeper? With just a +6 BPM estimate, I am not interested at this time.

Edey in last 3 games, 2 over GS 30 and the latter over GS 20.

3 GS 30 plus games may be more than anyone. 6 games of 30 plus points may be more than anyone.

Arkansas, 136th on offensive rating. 352 of 363 on 3 pointers made. 6th in SEC.
Either the talent isn't what the hypesters said or the coaching strategy is off or both.

Kalkbrenner, #1 in college basketball among qualifiers on both efg% and ts%.Totally ignored or barely ranked by many draft media. Highly ranked by me.

Edey and Jackson-Davis #1 and #2 on BPM. Totally ignored or barely ranked by many draft media. Highly ranked by me.

Vescovi, best "defensive rating". Not seeing him on other boards. Too busy in deep denial of disappointment by many over-hyped freshmen. Highly ranked by me.

It appears Baba Miller was massively over-hyped by the hypesters.

3 straight 0 point games on decent minutes. Worst Game Score of the season (negative) in last game.

Looked at 10 years of RSCI rankings. Was struck by how many names I never heard of because they never got on NBA draft radar after starting in college. Not sure what is "fair" to expect but retrospect these lists were mostly garbage in terms of predicting college and NBA performance. I usually don't give them weight and I'll probably give them even less in future.

2011-13 recruiting class top 100s, less than 20% ended up even having a very modest NBA career.

Brogdon 94th in his class while LeBryan Nash, PJ Hairston and a handful of other nobodies were in top 15. Jerami Grant 41st to Noel at 2. Embid 16 to Vonleh 8, James Young 9 and Dakari Johnson 10. Zach LaVine 33 spots behind Aaron Harrison. Towns behind Okafor, Mudiay and Cliff Alexander. Devin Booker 14 spots behind Justin Jackson and 16 spots behind Tyus Jones. Donovan Mitchell 20 spots behind Diamond Stone. Harry Giles 70 spots ahead of Markkanen. Robert Williams almost 40 spots behind Terrence Ferguson. Tevon Duval 95 spots ahead of Jordan Poole. Quade Green, Jalek Felton, John Petty, Paul Scruggs and many other no names ahead of SGA. Sensabough almost 30 spots behind Hood-Schfino. Only 4 of top 10 in 2022 class playing well.

Filipowski with worst game of his season. Maxwell Lewis with 3 weak ones in row including worst of season.