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Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Wed May 17, 2023 7:22 pm
by Mike G
Joker's 34-21-14 Gm1 of the WCF ranks #73 in Game Score (see OP) and was his 3rd highest in playoff career.
A Davis just missed the top 100 with 40-10-3.
2023 now tied with 2021 postseason for most top-100 GmSc (9); more impressive, 5 were top-25.
(see the OP)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 10:49 pm
by Mike G
Why does BPM hate Bam Adebayo so much?
In each round of these playoffs, BPM rates him an average or worse player. And he's the #2 guy on the best (so far) team in the East!
Other stats do not (mostly) agree:
Code: Select all
rd Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eW
1 158 16.2 .041 -2.2 1.53 .38 .13 .11 .50
2 227 16.9 .134 0.2 1.49 .58 .62 .36 .70
3 37 20.0 .142 0.3 1.47 .121 .106 .061 .114
T 422 16.9 .100 -0.7 1.50 1.07 .86 .53 1.32
PER and BPM "Wins" (on the right) are sorta crudely fabricated to add up to actual wins AND make a closest fit with eWins and WinShares.
eWins "likes" Bam the most, and I'm partial to it; and it most concurs with what my eyes have seen. He's the Miami #2 guy after Butler; #1 in rebounds and minutes.
All I can figure is that turnovers are killing him. In RS he had 3.6 TO/100, and in playoffs it's 3.7.
He's the only guy with whom, in RS, the team rebounded better AND had fewer turnovers, on-vs-off.
Code: Select all
Heat TRb% TO% t-t
Bam 1.2 -1.4 2.6
(Herro .6 -1.3 1.9)
Strus -1.3 1.4 -2.7
Butler -.3 -1.3 1.0
Martin -.9 .2 -1.1
Vincent .6 .7 -.1
Lowry -.6 -1.4 .8
(Oladipo -.1 .1 -.2)
Highsmith .9 .2 .7
Robinson -1.7 .5 -2.2
Love 1.0 .1 .9
Zeller 2.0 2.4 -.4
Bam fraction of 'wins' in each round:
Code: Select all
rd perW WS bpmW eWin
1 .124 .042 .044 .173
2 .209 .178 .125 .208
3 .184 .138 .116 .191
T .166 .117 .090 .192
Win Shares are also pretty harsh on him.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 2:19 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
regular season Jamal Murray playoffs
PER WS/48 BPM year PER WS/48 BPM
16.0 .100 0.6 2019 19.4 .120 2.8
17.7 .107 1.2 2020 23.7 .174 5.9
18.0 .116 1.3 2023 23.2 .197 5.8
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 3:54 pm
by Crow
0 on BPM is 69th percentile among all players in regular season. Mean way higher than median (-1.4).
Winshares ,100 is close to 65th percentile. Median is .84.
But neither is in the very top tier of available metrics. Of course PER isn't either.
B-Ref should develop or use a new or revised metric. One legacy metric is probably enough but whatever.
What percent of queries focus on current season or last 5 years? 90-99%? The best / most moden metric is most important to me. I almost never do historical comparisons anymore.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 4:04 pm
by Crow
Adebayo only 50% TS% in round 1. Worst on team, besides Haslem.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Mon May 22, 2023 4:34 pm
by Crow
Bucks gave up 60.5% TS% to playoff opponent. Worst result. Hawks a close 2nd worst, Clippers 3rd.
Kings with 2nd worst own ts%. Griz worst at barely 50%. Warriors below average and Sixers and Cavs as well.
Clear cases of must fix to do anything in future playoffs.
Cavs more than 30% higher than playoff average on own turnovers. Nets 25% below average on offensive rebounding. Hawks, Warriors and Bucks 27 to 15% below average on ft/fga. Nets and Cavs 10-15% below average on defensive rebounding rate. Clippers gave up 35% higher ft/fga to opponent. Some may be flukes but probably need review and most need active fixing.
9 teams named with major performance issues. 6 multiple times. Watch off-season for adequate attention to them.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Tue May 23, 2023 5:32 pm
by Mike G
Lakers' 3-round posteasons:
Code: Select all
LeBron James Anthony Davis
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 37 20.1 .158 5.6 2.10 1 36 23.1 .197 5.6 2.37
2 38 22.5 .178 7.2 2.01 2 38 24.3 .227 6.6 2.19
3 43 25.6 .175 10.7 2.16 3 41 24.4 .175 4.6 1.93
T 39 22.5 .170 7.6 2.09 T 38 23.9 .202 5.7 2.18
Austin Reaves D'Angelo Russell
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 37 14.9 .152 2.0 1.15 1 31 15.3 .127 1.4 1.41
2 34 13.4 .104 0.5 .78 2 32 12.5 .046 -1.8 .81
3 40 18.6 .151 4.6 .96 3 24 4.8 -.151 -7.7 .06
T 36 15.4 .135 2.2 .97 T 30 12.1 .039 -1.7 .90
Dennis Schröder Rui Hachimura
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 22 7.1 .055 -2.7 -.03 1 26 18.4 .215 5.1 1.04
2 27 11.3 .086 -2.0 .49 2 17 16.4 .129 2.8 .64
3 31 4.4 -.048 -6.0 -.24 3 34 13.0 .080 -1.6 .19
T 26 7.9 .036 -3.4 .11 T 24 16.0 .146 2.2 .64
Jarred Vanderbilt Lonnie Walker IV
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 20 14.7 .150 3.4 .93 1 3 13.7 .133 0.1 .31
2 15 8.1 .013 -4.7 .36 2 18 15.8 .155 3.3 .72
3 10 1.7 -.095 -7.2 -.64 3 15 8.1 .022 -3.0 -.24
T 15 10.2 .061 -1.2 .47 T 11 13.1 .110 1.0 .37
Troy Brown Jr. Malik Beasley
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 15 6.8 .080 -0.9 .01 1 11 5.9 .035 -5.3 -.21
2 6 8.2 .028 -3.0 .07 2 4 5.9 -.048 -4.9 -.14
3 0 3 0
T 8 7.8 .050 -1.4 .06 T 6 5.3 -.019 -5.7 -.20
Wenyen Gabriel Max Christie
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 4 15.4 .110 -5.0 .36 1 2 18.6 .219 7.9 .87
2 3 7.5 .068 -8.2 -.15 2 3 12.7 .094 -2.2 .40
3 0 3 0
T 2 12.0 .078 -6.4 .14 T 2 15.6 .133 2.0 .58
Tristan Thompson Shaquille Harrison
rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 1 1 8.2 -.030 3.0 .53
2 4 11.4 .032 -7.4 .66 2 4 23.5 .339 2.3 1.37
3 3 8.2 -.052 -5.7 -.43 3 0
T 2 10.3 .003 -6.8 .29 T 2 22.1 .286 2.8 1.27
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Wed May 24, 2023 3:52 am
by Crow
Suns playoff lineup management:
5 of 7 most used positive and strongly to very strongly.
But 100 lineups used and only 37% of the others positive. Series lost mainly in the dink lineups.
New Coach...
obsessed with dink lineups or relatively less so? Key question to me.
Booker and Durant strong in playoffs with Paul. Almost no test beforehand without him. Injury was fatal. I'd probably keep Paul at least for first half of season. See what new Coach can do with trio and duo without Paul. Absolutely trade Ayton.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Wed May 24, 2023 4:48 am
by Crow
Nuggets pushed starting lineup to over 18 minutes per game in playoffs. 30 minutes / gm to 5 most used. All positive. Smashing.
41 lineups used is probably still too many but way better than 100. 56% positive.
Nuggets averaged 2.7 new lineups per game so far. Suns, 9 new per game.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sat May 27, 2023 12:36 pm
by Mike G
Nuggets thru 3 rounds:
Code: Select all
Jamal Murray Nikola Jokić
rd PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 22.0 .188 5.3 2.28 1 28.1 .275 11.5 3.21
2 20.4 .151 3.1 1.69 2 37.3 .365 16.5 3.65
3 27.9 .257 9.1 2.27 3 27.6 .248 11.2 2.79
T 23.0 .193 5.5 2.04 T 31.6 .303 13.4 3.27
Aaron Gordon Michael Porter Jr.
1 15.2 .184 -0.9 .96 1 16.6 .182 2.9 1.55
2 11.9 .101 -1.8 .54 2 14.6 .138 0.7 1.04
3 12.6 .082 -1.0 .42 3 13.9 .104 0.8 1.00
T 13.1 .121 -1.3 .63 T 15.1 .144 1.5 1.21
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Bruce Brown
rd PER WS/48 BPM e480 rd PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 8.8 .070 -2.5 .16 1 14.7 .125 1.1 .73
2 14.6 .183 3.3 .62 2 18.1 .182 2.4 1.03
3 12.7 .095 -0.4 .39 3 15.4 .166 0.4 .64
T 12.2 .122 0.4 .41 T 16.2 .158 1.4 .82
Jeff Green Christian Braun
1 3.1 -.002 -6.0 -.62 1 10.6 .129 -0.5 -.07
2 7.6 .098 -4.1 -.04 2 5.3 .021 -5.5 -.16
3 3.9 .028 -6.0 -.49 3 -7.3 -.163 -15.7 -.76
T 4.9 .041 -5.3 -.38 T 5.8 .040 -4.8 -.20
Denver Nuggets
rd PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 16.0 .151 2.08 1.24
2 17.8 .168 2.90 1.25
3 17.3 .147 2.69 1.17
T 17.1 .155 2.55 1.22
Denver's most competitive series, in point margin, is the one they swept (vs LA).
The most lopsided was the one with 2 losses (Phx).
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sun May 28, 2023 12:17 am
by Mike G
Celtics' core players are without any real playoff 'slackers'.
For all players in all eras, on average, PER drops about 2 from RS to PO; WS/48 declines by .20-.30; BPM is competition-adjusted.
Code: Select all
career: Regular Seasons Playoffs
Celts PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
Tatum 19.7 .147 3.3 19.0 .132 4.3
Brown 16.4 .101 0.3 15.9 .100 1.2
Smart 12.4 .092 -0.3 12.9 .077 0.5
White 15.3 .119 1.4 13.9 .105 1.4
Horford 18.2 .157 2.9 17.0 .138 3.6
Grant W 9.7 .096 -1.6 10.8 .126 0.5
Robt. W 22.3 .249 4.9 20.4 .223 4.4
Brogdon 17.0 .122 1.4 12.8 .069 -1.3
Brogdon's first 2 postseasons in Mil were weak, then 2 good ones (Mil/Ind); he was OK this year before injury.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sun May 28, 2023 12:40 pm
by Mike G
Same deal for Miami. Some of these 'playoff careers' are mostly this year.
Code: Select all
career: Regular Seasons Playoffs
.Heat PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
Butler 21.6 .203 5.0 21.7 .183 5.8
Adebayo 20.0 .168 2.7 17.7 .131 1.6
Vincent 9.2 .045 -3.1 10.5 .065 -0.8
Martin 12.1 .092 -1.2 14.5 .121 1.4
Strus 11.6 .088 -0.8 10.6 .086 -0.2
Lowry 17.8 .151 2.9 14.9 .101 1.9
Love 20.9 .166 3.2 17.2 .134 1.5
Robinson 11.1 .089 -0.9 12.7 .109 1.5
Some marginal players could be confused for Stars.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Mon May 29, 2023 12:53 pm
by Crow
The average regular season SRS of teams getting out of first round this time was by far the weakest in the checked last 4 years. Only half the best 2.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 11:44 am
by Mike G
Well, we missed one. LeBron's final game ranks #92 among playoff GmSc since 1985. (see OP)
Not only is this the 10th top-100 game of the current postseason -- breaking the 2021 mark of 9 -- but one of those has gotten squeezed out, leaving a mere 8.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 12:47 pm
by Mike G
Team totals, as of completion of each round.
Code: Select all
rd1 PER WS/48 BPM e484 rd2 PER WS/48 BPM e484
LAL 15.6 .143 2.41 1.21 Den 17.8 .168 2.90 1.25
NYK 14.8 .142 2.33 1.18 Bos 16.8 .154 2.87 1.25
Phx 18.3 .146 2.28 1.17 LAL 16.1 .123 1.59 1.09
Phl 16.3 .176 2.16 1.32 Mia 14.2 .119 1.28 1.13
Den 16.0 .151 2.08 1.25 GSW 13.6 .082 0.86 .92
Bos 17.5 .138 1.94 1.14 Phl 14.5 .057 0.72 .75
Mia 16.6 .125 1.33 1.14 Phx 14.1 .044 0.58 .75
GSW 14.9 .112 1.22 1.06 NYK 13.0 .086 0.31 .87
Cle 12.0 .071 0.95 .82
Sac 13.7 .086 0.71 .94 rd2 15.0 .104 1.39 1.00
LAC 14.8 .058 0.71 .83
Mem 12.1 .058 0.68 .78 rd3 PER WS/48 BPM e484
Atl 15.4 .065 0.67 .85 Den 17.3 .147 2.69 1.17
Mil 14.9 .073 0.10 .86 Mia 15.7 .124 1.46 1.12
Min 13.8 .052 -0.05 .76 LAL 15.4 .068 1.14 .83
Brk 12.2 .026 -0.78 .68 Bos 14.5 .081 0.59 .88
rd1 14.9 .101 1.17 1.00 rd3 15.8 .105 1.47 1.00
Averages are by team, not by games or minutes.