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Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2021 10:12 am
by Mike G
"41 for everybody" continues to win the contest. This is aggravating for a number of reasons. One is that absolute avg errors are starting small and will grow all season -- indicating that regression toward the mean is
too much at b-r.com
Another issue is that of course the most-regressed predictions will be favored at this point, and the contest will be artificially rearranged as the season progresses.
So I've got a de-regressed version of the team projections. Still using b-r.com's number, we can readily double the difference from 41:
BR*2-41 gives a mostly-performance-based projection; still with some regression toward .500
Code: Select all
west W east W
Uta 62 Mia 71
Por 51 Chi 59
Den 50 NYK 55
GSW 49 Phl 51
Min 44 Was 50
Sac 43 Cha 46
Mem 38 Tor 46
SAS 38 Mil 41
LAC 38 Brk 41
LAL 33 Atl 37
Phx 33 Ind 36
Dal 31 Cle 34
NOP 30 Bos 33
Hou 23 Det 29
OKC 14 Orl 21
Compare to the lukewarm projections currently at b-r.com
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
And relative to these, our contest (with a few dummy entries) would look like this:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
cali 8.7 10.3 dtka 9.4 11.4
21re 8.9 10.7 shad 9.4 11.0
bpmW 9.0 10.9 perW 9.4 11.3
avgA 9.0 10.6 Crow 9.6 11.1
WShr 9.1 10.8 emin 9.6 11.5
5.38 9.1 10.8 4141 9.7 12.2
trzu 9.2 11.2 vegas 9.8 11.3
lisp 9.3 11.1 2021 9.9 12.0
eWin 9.3 11.0
Dummies:
2021 is just last year's Wins * 82/72
21re is that number regressed halfway to .500
avgA is the avg of 8 actual APBR submissions plus my 3 extras.
4141 is 41 wins for every team
I'm inclined to phase-in this 'de-regressed' projection to get the dummies in their rightful place a bit sooner, and earlier props to those who got things right. Like today I'm going with 75% straight b-r.com and 25% the less mushy version; adding another 5% every day to the radical side?
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .25 avg err rmse
21re 5.71 7.00 dtka 7.57 8.90
4141 6.07 7.63 shad 7.57 8.67
eWin 6.14 7.38 lisp 7.58 8.71
perW 6.22 7.49 vegas 7.65 8.77
bpmW 6.51 7.89 5.38 7.71 8.63
avgA 6.77 7.97 Crow 7.72 9.04
cali 6.98 8.05 emin 8.39 9.95
WShr 7.22 8.44 2021 8.48 10.13
trzu 7.42 9.02
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2021 9:13 pm
by Crow
Ok.
Figuring it out by mid-point of season is a decent goal.
I'm not going to react a lot til then or at least 20 games.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:24 am
by Mike G
"Last year's W%" is dead last. Averaging that with 41 leads the pack.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .30 avg err rmse
21re 5.83 7.38 trzu 7.26 9.10
eWin 6.30 7.71 shad 7.33 8.60
perW 6.47 7.95 lisp 7.35 8.66
avgA 6.54 8.03 Crow 7.40 9.00
bpmW 6.57 8.03 dtka 7.44 8.98
cali 6.62 7.97 5.38 7.47 8.55
4141 6.78 8.45 vegas 7.48 8.75
WShr 6.84 8.44 emin 8.28 9.77
. 2021 8.30 10.02
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 7:34 pm
by eminence
Hot start
Bummed that Zion is out so long, fun player to watch.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:31 am
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .35 avg err rmse
21re 6.04 7.78 Crow 7.25 9.16
eWin 6.39 8.01 lisp 7.37 9.11
cali 6.52 8.29 trzu 7.40 9.33
avgA 6.61 8.36 vegas 7.50 8.97
perW 6.66 8.33 dtka 7.57 9.39
bpmW 6.95 8.47 5.38 7.57 9.00
4141 7.02 8.83 emin 8.37 10.01
WShr 7.19 8.70 2021 8.49 10.30
shad 7.21 8.88
Nov. 3 --
Errors get bigger at the top and less at the bottom. As "predicted", caliban surges to the top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .40 avg err rmse
21re 6.32 8.06 5.38 7.39 8.92
cali 6.75 8.24 lisp 7.47 9.08
avgA 6.81 8.42 trzu 7.49 9.22
eWin 6.82 8.67 vegas 7.51 8.96
Crow 6.98 8.93 dtka 7.53 9.44
perW 7.04 8.91 4141 7.54 9.67
shad 7.13 8.79 emin 7.92 9.55
bpmW 7.26 8.78 2021 8.15 9.97
WShr 7.30 8.80
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:27 pm
by sndesai1
i've updated this sheet as well:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1z2U9/edit
using the average of TeamRankings, BPI, Bk-Ref, and 538 current projections to estimate
aside from the late BPI entry, caliban and shadow (along with the "Average") as usual are at the top of the list. 538 RAPTOR is not looking great - we'll see how that goes
also, a couple of charts that don't seem to translate well from excel into google docs
min, max, and average of the entries vs. the current projection (gray box). white rectangle shows teams currently outperforming and black rectangle the opposite
range of current in-season projections along with average (gray box)
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:10 pm
by Crow
4 top scored predictive metrics are all doing poorly. BPI #1. Strange early results.
Let's see in a couple of weeks.
Similarity of entry to measuring stick on general degree of regression to mean right now from last season or "talent" estimates may matter a lot now but firm specific team performance numbers later might not match as closely.
The database indicates that my variance from average was middling. I am ok with that. Some years I've been more extreme, sometimes very successfully, sometimes bitten by being too extreme in a few cases. In the pocket, mildly different, way different, any style COULD work.
If in the pocket is the place to be, then expect Caliban and Shadow to be in top tier. I have to have an edge coming from accuracy in variance from entry average and the most in the pocket entries.
Some substantial differences on the 2 scorecards because of different measuring sticks and number of entries tracked. Leaders will tend to converge with time, though the final results will be independent of these measuring choices.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:51 am
by sndesai1
since we're still very early in the season, the fact that BPI knew the outcome of those first two games is very impactful
by the end of the season, i would guess the value of 2 games worth of information to the final RMSE will be an improvement of about 0.1-0.2 - still valuable, but not quite as much as it seems to be at the moment
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:48 am
by Mike G
Big changes from yesterday.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .45 avg err rmse
21re 6.97 8.58 eWin 7.61 9.50
Crow 7.01 9.01 bpmW 7.69 9.39
avgA 7.06 8.87 lisp 7.73 9.43
cali 7.19 8.72 dtka 7.77 10.09
shad 7.44 8.99 perW 7.78 9.80
vegas 7.46 9.00 trzu 7.79 9.48
5.38 7.53 9.49 4141 8.11 10.52
WShr 7.57 9.33 2021 8.12 9.97
emin 7.57 9.31
Nov. 5 update:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .50 avg err rmse
Crow 7.09 9.11 eWin 7.84 9.78
21re 7.36 8.86 bpmW 7.91 9.61
avgA 7.38 9.03 dtka 7.92 10.08
cali 7.51 8.97 trzu 7.95 9.51
5.38 7.70 9.51 lisp 8.08 9.46
emin 7.72 9.48 perW 8.08 10.09
WShr 7.73 9.50 2021 8.17 10.10
vegas 7.75 9.28 4141 8.41 10.85
shad 7.76 9.17
Nov. 6
Teams suddenly resemble their last year W% (2021) relative to our guesses.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse .55 avg err rmse
Crow 8.09 10.2 vegas 8.84 10.6
WShr 8.30 10.7 cali 8.85 10.4
21re 8.39 10.1 bpmW 8.87 10.9
avgA 8.49 10.4 trzu 8.88 10.8
2021 8.68 10.9 eWin 9.02 11.2
emin 8.70 10.4 lisp 9.04 10.8
shad 8.74 10.5 dtka 9.11 11.6
5.38 8.79 11.0 perW 9.13 11.5
. 4141 9.42 12.2
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:45 pm
by Mike G
The worst team in the league by most measures has been the Pistons. They are headed to about 10 fewer wins than our average predicted.
I got minutes estimates from a couple places and averaged them. They are included in this table, along with last season's PER, BPM, and WS/48; and this year's numbers thru 9 games. Expected vs Actual
Code: Select all
Detroit expected / last year actual / this year
. Pistons mpg PER BPM WS/48 mpg PER BPM WS/48
Saddiq Bey 29 12.6 -0.8 .082 33 13.3 -1.7 .034
Jerami Grant 32 16.9 0.9 .083 29 14.0 -1.1 .021
Isaiah Stewart 28 16.4 -1.2 .132 24 15.3 -2.4 .096
Kelly Olynyk 21 16.4 1.1 .121 23 20.0 2.9 .125
Josh Jackson 18 12.0 -3.3 .004 22 10.3 -4.5 .009
Killian Hayes 26 5.3 -7.3 -.081 22 6.9 -6.3 -.036
Cory Joseph 19 12.5 -2.1 .069 21 12.7 -2.3 .085
Frank Jackson 13.3 -2.1 .076 19 5.4 -7.8 -.064
Trey Lyles 13 11.4 -1.9 .085 16 18.2 0.4 .113
C Cunningham 31 17.0 1.8 .135 12 2.0 -11.8 -.211
. Pistons mpg PER BPM WS/48 mpg PER BPM WS/48
Hamidou Diallo 19 14.3 -2.3 .063 9 9.1 -6.0 .004
Luke Garza 1 8.0 -6.4 -.022 4 14.4 -3.1 .125
Saben Lee 13.8 -1.9 .091 3 3.3 -9.0 -.135
R McGruder 16.1 0.7 .121 3 4.2 -6.4 -.024
Isaiah Livers 6 8.8 -5.7 -.008 0
. totals 240 13.4 -1.6 .068 239 12.1 -3.2 .026
w exp. min. 240 13.6 -1.4 .070
Minutes allotment is not the problem; hardly anyone is producing as well as expected.
Cunningham may just take Frank Jackson minutes, eventually.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:07 pm
by Mike G
mayhem continues. "Last year" now in contention, up from the bottom.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 8.17 10.1 shad 8.81 10.4
21re 8.34 9.8 vegas 8.90 10.4
WShr 8.37 10.5 cali 8.91 10.3
2021 8.44 10.6 eWin 8.96 11.1
avgA 8.56 10.3 lisp 9.05 10.7
emin 8.66 10.3 dtka 9.07 11.4
bpmW 8.71 10.8 perW 9.13 11.4
5.38 8.76 10.9 4141 9.32 12.0
trzu 8.77 10.6
Nov. 8 update
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 7.73 9.3 emin 8.48 10.3
Crow 8.09 10.1 lisp 8.49 10.5
5.38 8.16 10.7 bpmW 8.59 10.5
2021 8.19 10.4 eWin 8.63 10.7
avgA 8.21 10.1 perW 8.65 11.0
trzu 8.29 10.4 cali 8.80 10.2
WShr 8.32 10.4 dtka 8.87 11.3
vegas 8.38 10.1 4141 9.04 11.3
shad 8.42 10.1
Nov. 9 update:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 7.30 9.0 emin 8.18 10.4
WShr 7.82 10.3 bpmW 8.22 10.3
Crow 7.85 10.1 cali 8.24 10.0
avgA 7.88 10.0 lisp 8.31 10.5
5.38 7.94 10.6 eWin 8.56 10.6
2021 7.95 10.2 perW 8.59 10.8
shad 8.08 10.1 dtka 8.69 11.3
trzu 8.12 10.3 4141 8.87 11.0
vegas 8.13 10.0
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2021 7:21 pm
by sndesai1
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2021 8:05 pm
by Crow
I am 4th overall here on mean average error. That is what matters to me. 1st on self-entered "contest" entries, looking beyond a few metrics.
3rd on last update from Mike G, after a few days in lead there.
Long way to finish line.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:39 am
by Mike G
Big improvements by everyone.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.51 8.8 vegas 7.58 9.6
Crow 7.11 9.6 lisp 7.63 10.0
WShr 7.31 10.0 bpmW 7.70 9.9
avgA 7.33 9.6 eWin 7.81 10.4
2021 7.40 9.6 trzu 7.81 9.9
emin 7.48 9.7 perW 7.90 10.8
cali 7.49 9.5 dtka 8.32 11.0
5.38 7.53 10.3 4141 8.54 11.2
shad 7.54 9.6
Nov. 13 update: a brutal 2 days
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.83 9.0 cali 7.82 10.0
Crow 7.42 10.0 WShr 7.84 10.5
avgA 7.57 9.9 lisp 7.86 10.2
5.38 7.59 10.4 trzu 8.03 10.1
emin 7.71 10.1 eWin 8.11 10.8
shad 7.72 9.9 perW 8.18 11.1
vegas 7.74 9.9 2021 8.23 10.0
bpmW 7.77 10.3 dtka 8.41 11.2
. 4141 8.71 11.1
update Nov. 14
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.66 8.6 emin 7.87 10.0
Crow 7.47 9.8 lisp 7.91 10.1
avgA 7.55 9.7 trzu 8.00 10.0
shad 7.69 9.7 eWin 8.03 10.4
bpmW 7.71 9.9 perW 8.04 10.7
vegas 7.71 9.6 2021 8.06 9.8
5.38 7.74 10.3 dtka 8.42 11.1
WShr 7.75 10.1 4141 8.44 10.7
cali 7.83 9.9
update 11-14: The separation between 1 and 2 dropped almost 80% overnight.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 7.07 8.7 emin 7.67 9.7
Crow 7.23 9.6 2021 7.73 9.6
vegas 7.50 9.4 trzu 7.94 9.8
avgA 7.54 9.5 lisp 7.96 10.0
shad 7.57 9.5 bpmW 7.96 9.8
5.38 7.58 10.1 eWin 8.12 10.3
WShr 7.61 9.8 perW 8.33 10.6
cali 7.63 9.5 dtka 8.66 11.0
. 4141 8.85 11.0
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:51 pm
by Crow
21re is a pretty smart but simple strategy.
I try to stay fairly close it (especially in less "understood" cases), but I hope to add more than I lose in specific evaluations. The margin might be thin but sometimes it is more than thin.
