APBRmetrics

Some commentary on Vecenie's recent article:

Wembanyama. Does not explicitly mention the 29% from 3pt this season (AND SIMILAR MOST OF HIS CAREER). No mention of how weak French Pro A competition is.

Scoot Henderson. "arguably the best guard prospect I’ve evaluated in the near-decade I’ve been doing this." That excited about a PER 16 in the G league, where most games are basically pickup with questionable defensive effort?? Even still, sucked in 3 of last 4 games. 7 For 26 from 3 since Nov. 17. Extremely not Moreyball, below average from 3 and getting to line (not sure about at the rim).
Strength from mid-range? Not enough to be better than 49% efg%, we'll below average. Zero mention of defense which is probably poor. A/TO is just 1.81 and leaving 2 games affects both assists and turnovers. 2nd for Vecenie, 17th for me.

"Some see George as a lottery guy, whereas others see him as more of a late-teens guy." 39th for me. 4 big Game Score games, 7 bad ones.

Nick Smith: "His range is pretty wide. He could end up in the top five or at the bottom of the lottery." -1.1 BPM. No demonstrated in college stat strengths. 3 ok games, 4 bad (including last 3), no GS20 plus games. 11th best RAPM estimate on team, at barely over +1. Not in my top 58 based on college play to date.

"Hood-Schifino is a big-time riser for scouts over the last month largely due to his well-rounded game."

Horsesh*t. Since Jan. 11, he has 1 strong GS game, 4 ok and 7 bad. We'll-rounded game?? You don't have a well-rounded game with a BPM of just +1.1.

Maxwell Lewis, 20th to Vecenie, not on my big board. BPM of just +3.

Whitehead 21st? Not on my big board. BPM of just +2.3.

Lots of other major rating differences. I've covered many before. Jackson, Nnaji, T Smith, the Thompson twins, Edey, Kaluma, Tubelis, Jackson-Davis, Kalkbrenner, Clark, Mitchell, Durisic, Whitmore, Howard, Vescovi and on and on.

Hood Schfino falls further to +0.7 BPM estimate. 3 of last 4 games were terrible with very last one having his 3rd worst GS of season. 21 "stat weaknesses" on Tankathon, ZERO stat strengths.

Well regarded ingredients and technical skills are nice but do not guarantee a good meal. Best guide for getting good "food" is demonstrating good food consistently, recently. And no in the playhouses of high school doesn't mean much.

Watching a little tape or even a moderate amount could be dangerous, especially highlight reels. If you are going to rely on eye-test, you should watch most or all games, every minute, preferably multiple times. How many eye-testers satisfy these criteria? Probably very few of media / twitter and perhaps fullu on just a few or a modest number of players.

I am not doing that or pretending to do that. Eye test gets little weight from me (especially) because I know how easily it can be distorted and how hard it is to fully digest correctly.

If eye test and "stats" don't agree, the stats (including RAPM) are right about what happened. Who will be right in the future is up for grabs but an eye test not close to the stats faces a tougher uphill battle to future realization.

Substantial revisions today. Many levels of evaluation and quite a bit of performance volatility and dissonance.

Significant to huge rank differences with conventional consensus media on about 70% of my top 58.

Tankathon has close to 80% of its mock draft in freshman year or no college. Last draft was about 55%. My 2023 big board only has about 26% in freshman year or no college. I simply can't find enough worthy non-upper classmen to put in my top 58, at this point. Tankathon and I are the same distance variance to last season's experience and thus twice as far from each other. Maybe the gap will narrow some but it is pretty certain to remain large. I am fine with that. I didn't "plan" to be this way; it is a product of the analysis.

My initial study list of freshman and non-college players was mostly from conventional draft media sources. I should probably make a bigger independent effort to identify possible worthies less touted by the consensus outlets driven heavily by prep hype.

Found 9 little discussed freshmen and sophomores to add to top 100.

ESPN big board lottery group is 100% non college upperclassmen.

Yep, expected. Not anywhere close to "right" imo, but expected. I'd say 1/2 to 2/3rds do not belong that high.

Kobe Brown looks pretty good from several perspectives. Mediocre, not impressive RAPM though. Maybe deserving rank in spite of that but lower than if he had good RAPM.

RAPM is not always going to be a great guide but on average it is probably a pretty good guide. The best available? Debatable but I don't want to over-ride it very often and without some strong arguments.

Have bumped Nick Smith up a few times and may again. Play, play better, get ranked better.

At the end of last year, I became quite bullish on Purdue center Zach Edey and expected him to at least make the ESPN 100 as a great low-minutes player, a la UI forward Khris Murray, who was anticipated to get even better in a bigger role the following season — exactly what has happened with his team.

So, I agree with you @Crow. I am surprised how low Edey is still ranked on mock draft boards.

Also, what do you think PSU guard Jalen Pickett as a possible mid-1st Rd. high-impact college senior selection like Agbaji in the 2022 draft.

Pickett is a 3-level scorer who is averaging in 35.9 MPG about 18.8 PTS, 7.3 REB and 6.9 AST per gm. on 60.1% estimated TS, with 70.5/49.7/39.0/81.6% splits for the rim/mid-range/3P/FT.

I haven't spent much time on Pickett; but based on my methods, I have him 21st on my board currently.

That might not be high enough.

I am tempted to raise to 14 or higher (hadn't noticed how much better he is doing last 2 months) but maybe not tonight. Try to compare and find the right slot, though precision ranking is not that realistic without a lot more study.

I am not hyper about age but 23.6 yrs old now is more than I usually ignore or minimize.

Oh what the heck, 14 it is now for Pickett.

I agree with you.

Scoot Henderson with 4 garbage games in last 6. 4 of 16 from 3. But locked in at #2 almost everywhere. Easier that way...

Me? After raising a few times as hedging, dropped him back about 12 spots.

Amen Thompson, 4 GS20 plus games... against high schoolers. Ausar, 6. Both now 20 years old. Amen, 23% from (presumably short) 3. Ausar down to 30%.

Jarace Walker with 5th weak game in a row. Don't expect other boards to lower much or at all. I am dropping back around another 10 spots.

A Black ties 2nd worst game of season over weekend. Drop a few spots after recent raises.

Carson Wallace with 2nd best game of season. Guess he'll go up some after my recent fading.

Try not to overdo the reactions but can't ignore for long.