Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)

[Crow]

Perhaps.

Some of the performance issues raised here, considered at Stepien.com recently. Mostly dismissed in end but consideration is half or all of the battle.

[Nathan]

Perhaps.

Some of the performance issues raised here, considered at Stepien.com recently. Mostly dismissed in end but consideration is half or all of the battle.

Wouldn't be surprised if he tweaked it in the Copa del Rey finals. A rare back-to-back, and he carried a big load in the semifinal game.

[Nathan]

Real Madrid blown out by 22 with Doncic out injured yesterday. That snaps a streak of 34 straight games without a double digit loss.

They're now +11.46 per 48 with Doncic on court, +8.70 per 48 with Doncic off court overall.

EDIT: added Copa del Rey games (now includes ACB+Euroleague+Copa del Rey)

[josecarlos]

Today, I saw the game between Oklahoma and Rhode Island ... And please, don't compare Trae Young with Doncic. Right now, Doncic is much better player than Young. I don't know if Doncic is going to be an NBA star or not, but right now, he is much better than Young- Like I say this, I say that I think the main problem for Doncic is physical. Now, he is injured due to have been played too many games with high physical demands, National Team, ACB League and Euroleague. How I say in Spain, Doncic physically is melted. Maybe this break is good for him to make the end of the season in better conditions. To the physical problema, we must add another, the problem of character. He is very protected by referees in Europe and I don't think that this will happen in the NBA.

[Nathan]

Updated my spreadsheet through the end of the season. Doncic retains the top spot, albeit by a narrower margin than he had at the halfway point. Noticed in the ESPN feature on Doncic today they mentioned Pelton's statistical projection for him is the best of all time, which I suspect will be a common theme as more people start to publish the results of their models.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Crow]

2nd half of season data is worth a look.

Is there any other player near the top of this list getting current draft consideration or any other call to NBA consideration? I think the answer is no or slight but I don't know all the names under active consideration. This point doesn't seem to have much impact elsewhere but it gives important perspective to me. Doncic had an initial lead over Kyle Hines, now a lesser ones over James Augustine. If second half of season was shown, there is a good chance he is not even number 1 in this not really impressive to the NBA peer group. It doesn't mean Doncic isn't good but the hype is more likely overdone than underdone, I'm guessing.

Here are some other relevant research questions: Is the current Euroleague quality (overall or top 20 players) stronger or weaker tha 5 or 10 years ago? For Non-American and American groups? Lately I hear about the extent of NBA draft picks in Euroleague. That is good to know but how many are fell out of NBA, unlikely to return or drafted but never caught on in NBA, probably never will AND COULDN'T? I assume the answer is almost all or they'd be in the NBA except for a few special cases. Doncic's achievements this season relative to past Euros who went to NBA may be more or less impressive depending on answer to this question. I'd think there is less top talent playing in Euroleague than 10 years ago, before the drain of talent to NBA. But the average level of talent might be closer to same or even better due to development and maybe better / more American imports.

What is the average frequency of players who will ever play 100 plus NBA games in major NCAA conferences vs Euroleague? Probably more favorable to the NCAA context than mere drafted status... and more indicative of presence of top quality players.

And how are the comparisons by position or even just perimeter / interior? The quality may vary.

It is hard to judge current talent between leagues. Draft rank or future NBA performance measures guys before or after current time period.

[Nathan]

2nd half of season data is worth a look.

Is there any other player near the top of this list getting current draft consideration or any other call to NBA consideration? I think the answer is no or slight but I don't know all the names under active consideration. This point doesn't seem to have much impact elsewhere but it gives important perspective to me. Doncic had an initial lead over Kyle Hines, now a lesser ones over James Augustine. If second half of season was shown, there is a good chance he is not even number 1 in this not really impressive to the NBA peer group. It doesn't mean Doncic isn't good but the hype is more likely overdone than underdone, I'm guessing.

Here are some other relevant research questions: Is the current Euroleague quality (overall or top 20 players) stronger or weaker tha 5 or 10 years ago? For Non-American and American groups? Lately I hear about the extent of NBA draft picks in Euroleague. That is good to know but how many are fell out of NBA, unlikely to return or drafted but never caught on in NBA, probably never will AND COULDN'T? I assume the answer is almost all or they'd be in the NBA except for a few special cases. Doncic's achievements this season relative to past Euros who went to NBA may be more or less impressive depending on answer to this question.

What is the average frequency of players who will ever play 100 plus NBA games in major NCAA conferences vs Euroleague? Probably more favorable to the NCAA context than mere drafted status... and more indicative of presence of top quality players.

And how are the comparisons by position or even just perimeter / interior? The quality may vary.

It is hard to judge current talent between leagues. Draft rank or future NBA performance measures guys before or after current time period.

There are probably 20-30 guys in Euroleague who would be solid rotation players in the NBA. Maybe 3-7, depending on the year, who would be solid starters. Euro salaries have risen a lot in recent years, and as a result they've done a better job retaining these players and siphoning overlooked talent out of the D-League. Not many guys are going to take the veteran's minimum to play 20 minutes off the bench in the NBA when they can make twice as much (or more) to be a star in Europe.

The implication that Doncic is just a solid starter at the NBA level doesn't sound too exciting at first, I agree, but it is exciting when you consider that he was 18 for most of the season, and only a handful of 18-year-olds in NBA history could be considered solid starters.

Layne did a project on relative league strengths a while ago (https://fansided.com/2015/11/06/deep-di ... the-world/), finding that the quality gap between Euroleague/ACB and NCAA is similar to the gap between the best and worst NCAA conferences, which is to say, pretty big. And that gap has very likely grown for the aforementioned reasons. But even if you ignore that and just pretend Doncic put up the same per-minute stats in the NCAA, he'd still rate as possibly the best prospect ever, at least according to my model.

[Crow]

Where would he rate based on just second half of season to date?

Is there an good example of an elite prospect who got 20% worse during a season then turning the jets of progress back on?

How long is his wingspan? I almost said if he was 6-6 I would downgrade him a lot but does he have the wingspan / standing reach of a typical 6-6 guy, 6-8 or what? Will he give measurements at combine or only select chosen teams? Someone good at photographic analysis could probably determine if he tries to duck physical measurement. What about weight, body fat, lateral agility, hops, etc.? Has he given these things in public before?

Is he really 6-8? Stepien.com lists him at 6-7 (as do some others), then later calls him 6-8. Internet chatter is that there is no official wingspan measurement.

[Nathan]

Where would he rate based on just second half of season to date?

Is there an good example of an elite prospect who got 20% worse during a season then turning the jets of progress back on?

How long is his wingspan? I almost said if he was 6-6 I would downgrade him a lot but does he have the wingspan / standing reach of a typical 6-6 guy, 6-8 or what? Will he give measurements at combine or only select chosen teams? Someone good at photographic analysis could probably determine if he tries to duck physical measurement. What about weight, body fat, lateral agility, hops, etc.? Has he given these things in public before?

Is he really 6-8? Stepien.com lists him at 6-7 (as do some others), then later calls him 6-8. Internet chatter is that there is no official wingspan measurement.

I'd check if I could easily get splits for that, but I suspect it wouldn't drop off much. While his shooting/scoring has declined, his defensive stats and ast/TO numbers have held steady or even improved somewhat as the season's gone on.

As for his measurements, he had a 8'9.5" reach as of last summer, and I believe a 6'11" wingspan (though I can't find the source for the wingspan), so pretty big for a wing or pretty average for a PF. 230 pounds or so with a good bit of baby fat, but also a good deal of muscle, which shows when he competes for position on rebounds and in his shooting form which stays pretty consistent out to 30+ feet. His slide lateral agility times "straddle the NBA average for a guard," which would be amazing if true considering he's much larger than the typical guard, but who knows what kind of sample of NBA guards they're comparing him to when they say that.

source: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comm ... tial_no_1/

As for his vertical, he has the physical ability to get up pretty high, but doesn't really do so in game situations except on fast breaks and other wide-open dunk opportunities. Top of the square is 11'6", so realistically I'd guess that he'd hit 11'8" or so if he participated in the combine (I'm sure he won't, because he'll have games to play). I think that's mildly above average for a wing. Could perhaps get a little quicker/springier if he really gets lean and maximizes his athletic potential.

[Crow]

Thanks for the info. I don't know P3 but there could be some temptation to shade things favorable for a client.

[Nathan]

Made this graph to explain my understanding of the distribution of basketball talent in the world. Basically, the premise is that there are exponentially more players at lower skill levels than at higher skill levels. But, if you look just at skill levels in the NBA, you get a bell-curve type distribution, not an exponential distribution. Roughly speaking, there are as many bench rotation spots as starting spots in the NBA, but presumably far more bench skill level players in the world than starter skill level players in the world. The vast majority of these players, I believe, are in European and other international leagues (at least the ones who are older than college age).

[Nathan]

In addition to Doncic there are at least 4-5 other super-unusual prospects statistically this year. Will there be a draft thread at some point as usual where people post their analyses of these guys?

[Crow]

I am not going to lead on that. Feel free if you want to. At this point, don't count on others initiating or doing much.