I was curious about Luka Doncic, so I made a spreadsheet to calculate BPM for Euroleague (taking stats from realgm, and using the formula on basketball reference)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
A couple of minor caveats:
-Instead of forcing minutes-weighted player BPM's to add up to team ratings, I forced minutes-weighted player BPM's to add up to zero league-wide (which saved me a lot of work). The effect is that my BPM slightly overrates players on teams that underachieve relative to the sum of their player ratings, and underrates players on teams that overachieve relative to the sum of their player ratings.
-I mean-regressed ratings to clear low-minutes players out of the top of the rankings. This effect is <1% for players with >70 minutes.
What Luka Doncic is doing in Euroleague this season is mind boggling. He's not just a star...he's the best player in Euroleague, in the midst of possibly the greatest individual season in the history of Euroleague. To illustrate this I put together a little comparison at the bottom to Rubio, Gallinari, and Valanciunas, the only other teenagers (off the top of my head) who enjoyed some measure of success in Euroleague. Doncic, of course, completely blows them out of the water (I can add more players to this comparison on request).
How good do you all think Doncic will be in the NBA? Is there any reasonable way to make projections for guys like him (and Trae Young) who are such wild outliers?
I'm not currently planning on doing more Euroleague seasons, but I'll update the spreadsheet for this season periodically (and of course, anyone is welcome to use my template).
Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
By balancing out at league level instead of team level, is Doncic (and everyone else) even more immune from being adjusted for / against for any individual shot defense impact different than team average not captured by BPM or impact on the offense of teammates? The team level adjustments crude and imprecise as they might be, at least had some chance of picking that up in some cases.
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
http://overbasket.com/rsplayers.php?tab ... 929&cmp=EL
I dunno if this data is flawed in one way or more but isn't it saying PER POSSESSION that Real Madrid is doing better without Doncic in the court than with him on? The minutes without can't be right, so maybe more is wrong.
I am going to continue to look for another source, but my phone is fighting me in several ways. If you can find the plus minus on/off elsewhere, please post.
This is from same site http://overbasket.com/rsteams.php?tab=3 ... shteam=MAD
but at least it is consistent. Using it, it seems to be saying for raw net points per 100 possessions, Doncic is in 13th place on team. Some are really low minute guys and is not adjusted, but bottom line he appears very LOW ranked on this for his strong team if true. If true it would appear that he is having a great individual performance in a huge, friendly for stats & metric role but he is not the sole driver of team success and there is reason to wonder exactly how much of the team success is coming from Doncic vs. all the other sources.
Which NBA teams would give him as huge a role? Which could give as good a team context? Will he get one, the other, both or neither?
I dunno if this data is flawed in one way or more but isn't it saying PER POSSESSION that Real Madrid is doing better without Doncic in the court than with him on? The minutes without can't be right, so maybe more is wrong.
I am going to continue to look for another source, but my phone is fighting me in several ways. If you can find the plus minus on/off elsewhere, please post.
This is from same site http://overbasket.com/rsteams.php?tab=3 ... shteam=MAD
but at least it is consistent. Using it, it seems to be saying for raw net points per 100 possessions, Doncic is in 13th place on team. Some are really low minute guys and is not adjusted, but bottom line he appears very LOW ranked on this for his strong team if true. If true it would appear that he is having a great individual performance in a huge, friendly for stats & metric role but he is not the sole driver of team success and there is reason to wonder exactly how much of the team success is coming from Doncic vs. all the other sources.
Which NBA teams would give him as huge a role? Which could give as good a team context? Will he get one, the other, both or neither?
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
If I'm reading it correctly, it looks like they're 6.3 points/100 better offensively, 7.0 points/100 worse defensively with him on the court? And +50 overall with him on court, +42 with him off court? Not a ringing endorsement of his impact for sure, but I'm not sure how you're getting that he ranks 13th on the team.Crow wrote:http://overbasket.com/rsplayers.php?tab ... 929&cmp=EL
I dunno if this data is flawed in one way or more but isn't it saying PER POSSESSION that Real Madrid is doing better without Doncic in the court than with him on? The minutes without can't be right, so maybe more is wrong.
I am going to continue to look for another source, but my phone is fighting me in several ways. If you can find the plus minus on/off elsewhere, please post.
This is from same site http://overbasket.com/rsteams.php?tab=3 ... shteam=MAD
but at least it is consistent. Using it, it seems to be saying for raw net points per 100 possessions, Doncic is in 13th place on team. Some are really low minute guys and is not adjusted, but bottom line he appears very LOW ranked on this for his strong team if true. If true it would appear that he is having a great individual performance in a huge, friendly for stats & metric role but he is not the sole driver of team success and there is reason to wonder exactly how much of the team success is coming from Doncic vs. all the other sources.
BPM, even when calculated "correctly" doesn't efficiently use plus/minus information, as I understand it. One of its many shortcomings, but it's still arguably better than PER and the like.
EDIT: thanks for linking me to this site btw!
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
I got 13th place by dividing cumulative net plus minus by possessions for each player and comparing to Doncic's ratio. Can multiply everybody's by 100 possessions but it is not necessary for the ratio comparison. BUT I now think that was possessions used not played.
Divided by player minutes gives close to same ranking, though pace varies some. I actually did that first and he was 10th. Then I mistook the possession column and recalculated. It is tough when phone refuses to scroll, bugs out, etc.
Divided by player minutes gives close to same ranking, though pace varies some. I actually did that first and he was 10th. Then I mistook the possession column and recalculated. It is tough when phone refuses to scroll, bugs out, etc.
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Is that right, thought? I think that's like "possessions used" or something, not total team possessions with that player on the court. Wish they were a little more clear.Crow wrote:I get 13th place by dividing cumulative net plus minus by possessions for each player and comparing to Doncic's ratio. Can multiply everybody's by 100 possessions but it is not necessary for the ratio comparison. Divided by player minutes is close to same, though pace varies some.
EDIT: Just to add another data point, Real Madrid is +155 in 361 minutes with Doncic on court, +22 in 244 minutes with Doncic off court in ACB league play according to ACB.com
I would never dare look up stats on my phone. Can't even trust myself to text and walk at the same time
Last edited by Nathan on Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Yeah I caught my mistake and revised as best I could in above before seeing that you noticed the same thing.
Euroleague RAPM or RPM is needed. Maybe it eventually will arrive in public. Does any team get it? Should.
Even without Euroleague RAPM, somebody with enough reason, time and ambition could code all of Doncic's stints from play by play as being favorable, neutral or unfavorable in context (by BPMs of other 9 players). How does he and team perform in those 3 contexts? I'd like to know that and then apply to the NBA context he enters and then sees later. I'd like to see this for every NBA player and ideally every major prospect. I'd run dozens of RAPM splits if I had a more adequate computer / software set up, more training... and somebody asking for it and willing to use it (with appropriate caution).
Euroleague RAPM or RPM is needed. Maybe it eventually will arrive in public. Does any team get it? Should.
Even without Euroleague RAPM, somebody with enough reason, time and ambition could code all of Doncic's stints from play by play as being favorable, neutral or unfavorable in context (by BPMs of other 9 players). How does he and team perform in those 3 contexts? I'd like to know that and then apply to the NBA context he enters and then sees later. I'd like to see this for every NBA player and ideally every major prospect. I'd run dozens of RAPM splits if I had a more adequate computer / software set up, more training... and somebody asking for it and willing to use it (with appropriate caution).
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
if you go here: http://overbasket.com/rsteams.php?tab=3 ... shteam=MAD
and click on "ADV", it says doncic has a +15 net rating and the team overall has a +8.4 net rating
since he's on the court 65% of the time, can we guess the team has about a -4 rating while he's off the court?
and click on "ADV", it says doncic has a +15 net rating and the team overall has a +8.4 net rating
since he's on the court 65% of the time, can we guess the team has about a -4 rating while he's off the court?
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
I can't see that page at moment. Will have to look at a later time. The data with him off appears wrong on at least one page because they are very contradictory.
What else that is needed though, is data on Doncic's dribbling and time of possession and his & team offensive efficiencies by #dribbles used and time of possession. How high are these average values and who among former Euros, current and former NBA notables has similar shaped efficiencies as the values go up? How often does he use 5, 10 plus frontcourt dribbles on a touch and what happens? A media writer could check 2-5 games and be way ahead of anybody else to my knowledge. Teams should check every game of his career they can and deeply study the data. Have they, will they? I am guessing the answer is no in many cases. They'll have typical eye test scouting summaries but the player tracking data won't be studied far enough.
How common are high dribble count scoring attempts and what are the average NBA results compared to low or no dribbles? I will look into that, later.
What else that is needed though, is data on Doncic's dribbling and time of possession and his & team offensive efficiencies by #dribbles used and time of possession. How high are these average values and who among former Euros, current and former NBA notables has similar shaped efficiencies as the values go up? How often does he use 5, 10 plus frontcourt dribbles on a touch and what happens? A media writer could check 2-5 games and be way ahead of anybody else to my knowledge. Teams should check every game of his career they can and deeply study the data. Have they, will they? I am guessing the answer is no in many cases. They'll have typical eye test scouting summaries but the player tracking data won't be studied far enough.
How common are high dribble count scoring attempts and what are the average NBA results compared to low or no dribbles? I will look into that, later.
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Euroleague has a play by play endpoint (and the response is better constructed than the garbage stats.nba puts out).
http://live.euroleague.net/api/PlayByPl ... code=E2017
I'll try to add it to my client tonight and see if I can start working on RAPM for the league this week.
Edit:
They tag every shot with fast break, off turnover and second chance... Euroleague data is so much more user friendly than the nba...
http://live.euroleague.net/api/PlayByPl ... code=E2017
I'll try to add it to my client tonight and see if I can start working on RAPM for the league this week.
Edit:
They tag every shot with fast break, off turnover and second chance... Euroleague data is so much more user friendly than the nba...
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Euroleague RAPM would be a cool contribution. Especially for the handful or two of major prospects and to see the quality of their main teammates. Some of these might be decent NBA role players if needed.
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Looked at page sndesai1 mentioned. Either that or the raw plus minus data or something is wrong. Can't both be true for him and teammates as one teammate with a much better plus minus per 100 possessions is shown with a pretty negative off rtg - def rtg.
Will wait on the RAPM estimates.
Will wait on the RAPM estimates.
-
josecarlos
- Posts: 98
- Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:11 pm
- Location: Spain
- Contact:
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Hi!!!
I just want to warn you that SCO+/- statistic that you can find in tab "BAS" from the last game between R.Madrid and Maccai Tel-Aviv http://overbasket.com/rsgames.php?gamec ... 017&cmp=EL this is not an equivalent of your +/- exposed in that article https://fansided.com/2018/01/11/nylon-c ... lus-minus/
SCO+/- means how has change the score with the player on the floor. If we go to the play by play from euroliga http://www.euroleague.net/main/results/ ... playbyplay, we can see
1. That Luka Doncic didn't play in first quarter
2. He started the second quarter with 25 - 26 (-1 for Real Madrid)
3. He played all the second quarter and went to the bench on minute 6'40'' with 52 - 54 (-2 for Real Madrid)
4. He returned to the floor on minute 6'54'' in the fourth quarter with 79 - 62 (+17 for Real Madrid)
5. He finished the game with 93 - 81 (+12 for Real Madrid)
Luka Doncic on the floor, -2 - (-1) = -1, 12 - 17 = -5 => -1 + (-5) = -6
I just want to warn you that SCO+/- statistic that you can find in tab "BAS" from the last game between R.Madrid and Maccai Tel-Aviv http://overbasket.com/rsgames.php?gamec ... 017&cmp=EL this is not an equivalent of your +/- exposed in that article https://fansided.com/2018/01/11/nylon-c ... lus-minus/
SCO+/- means how has change the score with the player on the floor. If we go to the play by play from euroliga http://www.euroleague.net/main/results/ ... playbyplay, we can see
1. That Luka Doncic didn't play in first quarter
2. He started the second quarter with 25 - 26 (-1 for Real Madrid)
3. He played all the second quarter and went to the bench on minute 6'40'' with 52 - 54 (-2 for Real Madrid)
4. He returned to the floor on minute 6'54'' in the fourth quarter with 79 - 62 (+17 for Real Madrid)
5. He finished the game with 93 - 81 (+12 for Real Madrid)
Luka Doncic on the floor, -2 - (-1) = -1, 12 - 17 = -5 => -1 + (-5) = -6
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Sco Plus Minus IS the same as "raw plus minus" I was discussing.
You are correct it is different in method than Player Impact Plus Minus and other player impact metrics.
You are correct it is different in method than Player Impact Plus Minus and other player impact metrics.
Re: Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)
Doncic had 3 20 plus point games is first 3 weeks. 5 in last 12 weeks. 60% decline in frequency.
Almost no year to year change (or improvement) in his rebounding, assists, steals, blocks per minute. The boxscore change is almost all about usage, better ftr, 2pt shooting. 3pt fg% is meh and career worst.
Jaycee Carroll shooting better FG%s and only 7% less on points per minute due to Doncic's ftr. Anthony Randolph with better FGs and only 20% behind on points per minute for same reason. Any interest in NBA for either of these guys? IDENTICAL FGA per minute rates so this is not a imbalanced comparison for the shooting part.
Doncic 7th on team on TS%. SLIGHTLY ahead of that NBA phenom Jeffery Taylor.
Almost no year to year change (or improvement) in his rebounding, assists, steals, blocks per minute. The boxscore change is almost all about usage, better ftr, 2pt shooting. 3pt fg% is meh and career worst.
Jaycee Carroll shooting better FG%s and only 7% less on points per minute due to Doncic's ftr. Anthony Randolph with better FGs and only 20% behind on points per minute for same reason. Any interest in NBA for either of these guys? IDENTICAL FGA per minute rates so this is not a imbalanced comparison for the shooting part.
Doncic 7th on team on TS%. SLIGHTLY ahead of that NBA phenom Jeffery Taylor.